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000
FXUS61 KCTP 310930
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR BEING USHERED INTO THE
REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE LAYERS OF STRATO CU AND
ALTO CU. THE CULPRIT FOR THE CLOUDS WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIGHT AROUND THE 285K THETA
SFC. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.

EARLY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT ZONES /WHERE
THE FORMAL GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO END/ WILL BE IN THE U30S AND
LOWER 40S. ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AROUND SUNRISE.

WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE INITIALLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SPREAD TO THE SE AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH
/OVER THE WRN GLAKES THIS MORNING/ DIVES SE TWD THE SMOKEY
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE GREATLY INCREASES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENN ATOP AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH.

THE PRIMARY FCST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DEVELOPS
RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHARP/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING
THE UPCOMING 24-36 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NERN WISC MOVES
SE AND FROM LEAST A PAIR OF SYSTEMS. THE PRIMARY CHUNK OF UPPER
ENERGY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NERN WISCONSIN.

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GLAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD
REMAIN DRY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
31/09Z UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS.

31/06Z IR SAT AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIRLY UNIFORM...OVERCAST LOW VFR
CLOUD DECK /WITH BASES GENERALLY AOB 050/ BLANKETING MOST OF THE
AIRSPACE. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LGT/VRB TO
CALM...FELT THE GUIDANCE WAS TOO BULLISH ON LOWERING VISBYS IN
BR/FG GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE THE 31/06Z SCHEDULED
TAFS REFLECT AN OPTIMISTIC/PREVAILING LOW VFR FLGT CATEGORY IN
THE 0-6HR TIMEFRAME BEFORE DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR AT WRN TAFS
AFTER 12Z. NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO IMPACT THE WRN AIRSPACE UNTIL
THIS EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS ESEWD FROM LWR MI ACROSS WV TO THE
CAROLINAS. IN GENERAL...LOOK FOR CONDS TO TREND LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH PCPN COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WRN AND
CNTRL AREAS.

*NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
 N-NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM HAS
 SHIFTED TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WINDS
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUN...GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS
WEST BECOMING VFR.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR BEING USHERED INTO THE
REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE LAYERS OF STRATO CU AND
ALTO CU. THE CULPRIT FOR THE CLOUDS WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIGHT AROUND THE 285K THETA
SFC. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.

EARLY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT ZONES /WHERE
THE FORMAL GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO END/ WILL BE IN THE U30S AND
LOWER 40S. ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AROUND SUNRISE.

WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE INITIALLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SPREAD TO THE SE AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH
/OVER THE WRN GLAKES THIS MORNING/ DIVES SE TWD THE SMOKEY
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE GREATLY INCREASES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PENN ATOP AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH.

THE PRIMARY FCST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DEVELOPS
RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHARP/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING
THE UPCOMING 24-36 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NERN WISC MOVES
SE AND FROM LEAST A PAIR OF SYSTEMS. THE PRIAMRY CHUNK OF UPPER
ENERGY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NERN WISCONSIN.

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GLAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD
REMAIN DRY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
31/06Z IR SAT AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIRLY UNIFORM...OVERCAST LOW VFR
CLOUD DECK /WITH BASES GENERALLY AOB 050/ BLANKETING MOST OF THE
AIRSPACE. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LGT/VRB TO
CALM...FELT THE GUIDANCE WAS TOO BULLISH ON LOWERING VISBYS IN
BR/FG GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE THE 31/06Z SCHEDULED
TAFS REFLECT AN OPTIMISTIC/PREVAILING LOW VFR FLGT CATEGORY IN
THE 0-6HR TIMEFRAME BEFORE DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR AT WRN TAFS
AFTER 12Z. NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO IMPACT THE WRN AIRSPACE UNTIL
THIS EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS ESEWD FROM LWR MI ACROSS WV TO THE
CAROLINAS. IN GENERAL...LOOK FOR CONDS TO TREND LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH PCPN COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WRN AND
CNTRL AREAS.

*NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
 N-NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM HAS
 SHIFTED TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WINDS
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUN...GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS
WEST BECOMING VFR.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310715
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR BEING USHERED INTO THE
REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT NERN PENN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE CLOUDS WAS RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIGHT AROUND THE 285K THETA SFC.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND
SCENT ZONES /WHERE THE FORMAL GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO END/ TO
THE U30S AND LOWER 40S.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO
MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AROUND SUNRISE.

WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
31/06Z IR SAT AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIRLY UNIFORM...OVERCAST LOW VFR
CLOUD DECK /WITH BASES GENERALLY AOB 050/ BLANKETING MOST OF THE
AIRSPACE. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LGT/VRB TO
CALM...FELT THE GUIDANCE WAS TOO BULLISH ON LOWERING VISBYS IN
BR/FG GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE THE 31/06Z SCHEDULED
TAFS REFLECT AN OPTIMISTIC/PREVAILING LOW VFR FLGT CATEGORY IN
THE 0-6HR TIMEFRAME BEFORE DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR AT WRN TAFS
AFTER 12Z. NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO IMPACT THE WRN AIRSPACE UNTIL
THIS EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS ESEWD FROM LWR MI ACROSS WV TO THE
CAROLINAS. IN GENERAL...LOOK FOR CONDS TO TREND LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH PCPN COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WRN AND
CNTRL AREAS.

*NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
 N-NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM HAS
 SHIFTED TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WINDS
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUN...GUSTY NW WINDS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS
WEST BECOMING VFR.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310552
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR BEING USHERED INTO THE
REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT NERN PENN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS OVER
THE NEXTSEVEAL HOURS.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE CLOUDS WAS RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIGHT AROUND THE 285K THETA SFC.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND
SCENT ZONES /WHERE THE FORMAL GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO END/ TO
THE U30S AND LOWER 40S.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO
MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AROUND SUNRISE.

WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME CLEARING TO THE NE...OTHERWISE THE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT I SAW AT 7 PM. NO BIG CHANGES
PLANNED FOR 03Z TAF PACKAGE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. MAIN THING WAS TO GO WITH
BKN025 AT JST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OVERALL...SC DECK THIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MORE COMPLEX DECK TO
THE SW. ALL SITES VFR NOW. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT.

FLOW IS W TO NW...AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. EXPECT SC
TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP...AS FLOW STAYS FROM THE WEST AND
IS WEAK. ALSO INVERSION WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MUCH CLEARING.

LATE TONIGHT...CLDS WORK BACK INTO THE FAR WEST...AS WEAK
LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS FAR WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFT.

MORE DETAIL ON FRIDAY BELOW.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310302
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
I KEEP TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF INCLUDING FROST OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE AREA. BUT THERE ARE STILL LARGE PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER MOST
OF THAT AREA. ALSO...THE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST OF THE SERN HALF. SO...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FROST. NO HARM IN ADDING PATCHY FROST...BUT STOP SHORT OF MAKING
MENTIONS OF WIDESPREAD FROST AND THEREFORE TIPPING THE SCALES FOR
A FROST ADVY. THERE IS MORE CLEARING OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IS LONG PAST. THOSE HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE DIGGING
TROUGH ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN OH AND WRN PA. THE THICKENING CLOUDS
COULD WARM THE TEMPS BACK UP FROM CURRENT VALUES IN THE NW. STILL
THINK PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF FRI
MORNING...WITH THE MOISTURE POOR SYSTEM AND CURRENTLY HIGH-BASED
CLOUDS...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO BRING THE RAIN DOWN THROUGH THE
DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME CLEARING TO THE NE...OTHERWISE THE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT I SAW AT 7 PM. NO BIG CHANGES
PLANNED FOR 03Z TAF PACKAGE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. MAIN THING WAS TO GO WITH
BKN025 AT JST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OVERALL...SC DECK THIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MORE COMPLEX DECK TO
THE SW. ALL SITES VFR NOW. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT.

FLOW IS W TO NW...AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. EXPECT SC
TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP...AS FLOW STAYS FROM THE WEST AND
IS WEAK. ALSO INVERSION WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MUCH CLEARING.

LATE TONIGHT...CLDS WORK BACK INTO THE FAR WEST...AS WEAK
LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS FAR WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFT.

MORE DETAIL ON FRIDAY BELOW.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
I KEEP TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF INCLUDING FROST OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE AREA. BUT THERE ARE STILL LARGE PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER MOST
OF THAT AREA. ALSO...THE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST OF THE SERN HALF. SO...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FROST. NO HARM IN ADDING PATCHY FROST...BUT STOP SHORT OF MAKING
MENTIONS OF WIDESPREAD FROST AND THEREFORE TIPPING THE SCALES FOR
A FROST ADVY. THERE IS MORE CLEARING OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IS LONG PAST. THOSE HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE DIGGING
TROUGH ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN OH AND WRN PA. THE THICKENING CLOUDS
COULD WARM THE TEMPS BACK UP FROM CURRENT VALUES IN THE NW. STILL
THINK PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF FRI
MORNING...WITH THE MOISTURE POOR SYSTEM AND CURRENTLY HIGH-BASED
CLOUDS...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO BRING THE RAIN DOWN THROUGH THE
DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. MAIN THING WAS TO GO WITH
BKN025 AT JST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OVERALL...SC DECK THIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MORE COMPLEX DECK TO
THE SW. ALL SITES VFR NOW. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT.

FLOW IS W TO NW...AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. EXPECT SC
TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP...AS FLOW STAYS FROM THE WEST AND
IS WEAK. ALSO INVERSION WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MUCH CLEARING.

LATE TONIGHT...CLDS WORK BACK INTO THE FAR WEST...AS WEAK
LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS FAR WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFT.

MORE DETAIL ON FRIDAY BELOW.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
823 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS STUBBORN - ESP IN THE SRN TIER...BUT LARGE BREAKS IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS STARTING TO OPEN UP. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER-END OF THE
LAYERED CLOUDS MENTIONED TO IN EARLIER FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ARE
ALREADY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS THE STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THIS SECOND BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE LAST OVER THE SERN COS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON FROST MENTIONS IN THE AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT
YET BEEN CROSSED OFF ON THE LOCAL CHART OF AREAS WHICH HAVE
ALREADY HAD A FREEZE THIS FALL - PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE TO THE SE OF
STATE COLLEGE INCL WILLIAMSPORT AND HUNTINGDON. HOWEVER...MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M30S OVER ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. MAIN THING WAS TO GO WITH
BKN025 AT JST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OVERALL...SC DECK THIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MORE COMPLEX DECK TO
THE SW. ALL SITES VFR NOW. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT.

FLOW IS W TO NW...AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. EXPECT SC
TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP...AS FLOW STAYS FROM THE WEST AND
IS WEAK. ALSO INVERSION WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MUCH CLEARING.

LATE TONIGHT...CLDS WORK BACK INTO THE FAR WEST...AS WEAK
LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS FAR WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFT.

MORE DETAIL ON FRIDAY BELOW.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONFIDENCE IN SUNSHINE IS FADING AS THE INVERSION IS PROVING TO BE
HARD TO OVERCOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SUNSHINE THAN
EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL FCST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN
THE LOWER SUSQ.

DEEPER LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. I BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING AS LATEST TIMING
SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT LEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. MAIN THING WAS TO GO WITH
BKN025 AT JST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OVERALL...SC DECK THIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MORE COMPLEX DECK TO
THE SW. ALL SITES VFR NOW. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT.

FLOW IS W TO NW...AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. EXPECT SC
TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP...AS FLOW STAYS FROM THE WEST AND
IS WEAK. ALSO INVERSION WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MUCH CLEARING.

LATE TONIGHT...CLDS WORK BACK INTO THE FAR WEST...AS WEAK
LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS FAR WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFT.

MORE DETAIL ON FRIDAY BELOW.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONFIDENCE IN SUNSHINE IS FADING AS THE INVERSION IS PROVING TO BE
HARD TO OVERCOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SUNSHINE THAN
EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL FCST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN
THE LOWER SUSQ.

DEEPER LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. I BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING AS LATEST TIMING
SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT LEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SC DECK THIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MORE COMPLEX DECK TO THE SW.
ALL SITES VFR NOW. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT.

FLOW IS W TO NW...AND THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. EXPECT SC
TO BE SLOW TO BREAK UP...AS FLOW STAYS FROM THE WEST AND
IS WEAK. ALSO INVERSION WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MUCH CLEARING.

LATE TONIGHT...CLDS WORK BACK INTO THE FAR WEST...AS WEAK
LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS FAR WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFT.

FOR 21Z TAF PACKAGE...ADJUSTED PACKAGE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ALSO SOME ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONFIDENCE IN SUNSHINE IS FADING AS THE INVERSION IS PROVING TO BE
HARD TO OVERCOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SUNSHINE THAN
EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL FCST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN
THE LOWER SUSQ.

DEEPER LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. I BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING AS LATEST TIMING
SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT LEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
DOWN SOUTH AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF PA AND MOVES IT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER
LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MOISTURE...THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ALLEGHENIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REINFORCED BY WWD
GRAPHICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
 AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME A COASTAL STORM AND LIFT NE.
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG NW
FLOW DRAWING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO PA.  OPERATIONAL RUNS AND
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT
A COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH CEILINGS IN THE
3000-6000` RANGE. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER
ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301827
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AIR
BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION ON A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONFIDENCE IN SUNSHINE IS FADING AS THE INVERSION IS PROVING TO BE
HARD TO OVERCOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SUNSHINE THAN
EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL FCST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN
THE LOWER SUSQ.

DEEPER LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. I BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING AS LATEST TIMING
SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT LEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AT LEAST A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND THE SECOND
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA.

UPPER FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BACK QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS A POTENT LOW CLOSES OFF AND
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST. MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST
SHOWERS WILL MANAGE TO INVADE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY AND DROPS SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO OUR
WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME
MEASURE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EAST OF THE SYSTEM...OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
OF MY EASTERN FCST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS BY LATER
FRIDAY APPEARS LOW GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF ASSOC CLIPPER LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
NR CAPE HATTERAS. AS COASTAL STORM LIFTS NE...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
PA. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL
LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DRYNESS
OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT A
COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH CEILINGS IN THE
3000-6000` RANGE. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER
ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLYING AREA. MUCH OF MY EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR.
GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING.

MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301513
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKING JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND HELP MIX
OUT MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN OVER
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN
THE LWR SUSQ.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE TO
BRING DRY WX TO CENTRAL PA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
12Z FRI WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE HURON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH FAR NW PA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE THRU THE GRT LKS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY FRI NIGHT. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE NOW
APPEARS RELATIVELY CERTAIN BASED ON LACK OF SPREAD IN MDL
RUNS...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A PATH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FRIDAY PM.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING OVR PA...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 300-500MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LATEST GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AND ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
LATEST OPER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GEFS/SREF PROBS. HAVE
REMOVED CHC OF SNOW AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF ASSOC CLIPPER LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
NR CAPE HATTERAS. AS COASTAL STORM LIFTS NE...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
PA. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL
LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DRYNESS
OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT A
COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREDOMINATING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT THE
MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT OR LIFT UP AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM JST UP THRU BFD WILL
TYPICALLY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE LONGEST...POSSIBLY
REMAINING UNDER 3000` THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301338
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
938 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND BENCHMARK THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST WIND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND HELP MIX
OUT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT IS OVER THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN OVER
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE TO
BRING DRY WX TO CENTRAL PA FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN THE LWR SUSQ.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PIVOT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRI WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE HURON. MDL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A SCHC OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW PA BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE THRU THE GRT LKS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY FRI NIGHT. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE NOW
APPEARS RELATIVELY CERTAIN BASED ON LACK OF SPREAD IN MDL
RUNS...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A PATH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FRIDAY PM.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING OVR PA...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 300-500MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LATEST GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AND ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
LATEST OPER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GEFS/SREF PROBS. HAVE
REMOVED CHC OF SNOW AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF ASSOC CLIPPER LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
NR CAPE HATTERAS. AS COASTAL STORM LIFTS NE...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
PA. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL
LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DRYNESS
OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT A
COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DENSE FOG HAS FINALLY SCOURED OUT AT LNS WITH A RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED BY 13Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE BFD/JST MAY DIP TO IFR CIG BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING LOW MVFR WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE EARLY TODAY WITH CIGS REMAINING AOB 050 FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD. SCT-BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
SXNS OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LAYERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND BENCHMARK THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST WIND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD
LIFT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A LIGHT NW WIND ADVECTS DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA.

COOL AIR SPREADING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LLVL MSTR GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
EWD FROM THE OH VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS BINOVC THIS AFTN WHICH MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUN
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE TO
BRING DRY WX TO CENTRAL PA FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN THE LWR SUSQ.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PIVOT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRI WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE HURON. MDL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A SCHC OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW PA BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE THRU THE GRT LKS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY FRI NIGHT. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE NOW
APPEARS RELATIVELY CERTAIN BASED ON LACK OF SPREAD IN MDL
RUNS...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A PATH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FRIDAY PM.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING OVR PA...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 300-500MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LATEST GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AND ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
LATEST OPER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GEFS/SREF PROBS. HAVE
REMOVED CHC OF SNOW AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF ASSOC CLIPPER LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
NR CAPE HATTERAS. AS COASTAL STORM LIFTS NE...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
PA. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL
LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DRYNESS
OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT A
COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DENSE FOG HAS FINALLY SCOURED OUT AT LNS WITH A RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED BY 13Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE BFD/JST MAY DIP TO IFR CIG BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING LOW MVFR WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE EARLY TODAY WITH CIGS REMAINING AOB 050 FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD. SCT-BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
SXNS OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LAYERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND BENCHMARK THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST WIND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD
LIFT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A LIGHT NW WIND ADVECTS DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA.

COOL AIR SPREADING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LLVL MSTR GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
EWD FROM THE OH VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS BINOVC THIS AFTN WHICH MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUN
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE TO
BRING DRY WX TO CENTRAL PA FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN THE LWR SUSQ.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PIVOT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRI WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE HURON. MDL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A SCHC OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW PA BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE THRU THE GRT LKS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY FRI NIGHT. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE NOW
APPEARS RELATIVELY CERTAIN BASED ON LACK OF SPREAD IN MDL
RUNS...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A PATH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FRIDAY PM.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING OVR PA...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 300-500MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LATEST GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AND ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
LATEST OPER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GEFS/SREF PROBS. HAVE
REMOVED CHC OF SNOW AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF ASSOC CLIPPER LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
NR CAPE HATTERAS. AS COASTAL STORM LIFTS NE...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
PA. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL
LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DRYNESS
OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT A
COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
30/09Z...EXPECT LIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KLNS WITHIN THE
HOUR AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NW. LOWERED CIGS AT JST TO LOW
MVFR AND WILL KEEP IFR AT BFD THROUGH 12Z.

30/06Z...THE MAIN AVN CONCERN NEAR TERM IS VLIFR FOG AT LNS/MDT
WITH CONDS BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. WILL SHOW 2-3HR PERIOD OF THESE
CONDS IN 06Z TAFS BEFORE SIGNALING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 09Z AS A
LGT NW WIND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL AT BFD DUE TO COOL NW FLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN HI-BASED SC
DECK ALTHOUGH JST COULD DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER SFC HIGH BUILDING EWD SUGGESTS LOW CIGS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AT BFD/JST WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300919
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND BENCHMARK THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST WIND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD
LIFT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A LIGHT NW WIND ADVECTS DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA.

COOL AIR SPREADING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LLVL MSTR GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
EWD FROM THE OH VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS BINOVC THIS AFTN WHICH MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUN
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE TO
BRING DRY WX TO CENTRAL PA FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN THE LWR SUSQ.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PIVOT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRI WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE HURON. MDL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A SCHC OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW PA BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE THRU THE GRT LKS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY FRI NIGHT. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE NOW
APPEARS RELATIVELY CERTAIN BASED ON LACK OF SPREAD IN MDL
RUNS...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A PATH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FRIDAY PM.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING OVR PA...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 300-500MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LATEST GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AND ONLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVR THE W MTNS.

RISK OF SNOW OVR THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
LATEST OPER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS GEFS/SREF PROBS. HAVE
REMOVED CHC OF SNOW AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF UPPER LOW SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF ASSOC CLIPPER LOW SHOULD DIE OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
NR CAPE HATTERAS. AS COASTAL STORM LIFTS NE...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO
PA. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL
LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DRYNESS
OF AIR MASS MOVING IN...DON/T EXPECT ANY SIG ACCUMS...BUT A
COATING OF SNOW DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVR THE W MTNS.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE U30S-L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO 45-50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A MUCH MILDER RETURN SW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVN CONCERN NEAR TERM IS VLIFR FOG AT LNS/MDT WITH CONDS
BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. WILL SHOW 2-3HR PERIOD OF THESE CONDS IN 06Z
TAFS BEFORE SIGNALING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 09Z AS A LGT NW WIND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
AT BFD DUE TO COOL NW FLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. REMAINING SITES
SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN HI-BASED SC DECK ALTHOUGH JST
COULD DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER SFC
HIGH BUILDING EWD SUGGESTS LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
AT BFD/JST WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300826
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
426 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND BENCHMARK THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRISK NORTH NORTHWEST WIND WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD
LIFT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A LIGHT NW WIND ADVECTS DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA.

COOL AIR SPREADING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES. THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LLVL MSTR GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
EWD FROM THE OH VLY. MDL DATA SUGGESTS BINOVC THIS AFTN WHICH MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUN
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE TO
BRING DRY WX TO CENTRAL PA FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO NEAR 60F IN THE LWR SUSQ.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PIVOT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRI WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE HURON. MDL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A SCHC OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW PA BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE
UPPER LOW DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
GFS...AND BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
BEFORE IT TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA.
BOTH GEFS AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA
EARLY SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A
RAIN...SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVN CONCERN NEAR TERM IS VLIFR FOG AT LNS/MDT WITH CONDS
BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. WILL SHOW 2-3HR PERIOD OF THESE CONDS IN 06Z
TAFS BEFORE SIGNALING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 09Z AS A LGT NW WIND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
AT BFD DUE TO COOL NW FLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. REMAINING SITES
SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN HI-BASED SC DECK ALTHOUGH JST
COULD DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER SFC
HIGH BUILDING EWD SUGGESTS LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
AT BFD/JST WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300621
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
221 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST TODAY. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE IS SUPPORTING A FEW -SHRA ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AS OF 04Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FALLING INVERSION
HGTS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE -SHRA TO TAPER OFF. WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW COUNTIES SAW A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD DAWN...WHEN MDL 900MB TEMPS DIP TO ARND 0C. CLOUD
COVER AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS BY
DAWN SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS...TO THE L40S
FURTHER EAST.

FOG...WHICH HAS FORMED OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS A DEVELOPING NW BREEZE ADVECTS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. AT 04Z...DWPTS WERE IN THE M40S ACROSS
THE KMDT/KLNS AREA...WHILE JUST TO THE NORTH THEY WERE IN THE 30S.
LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF DISSIPATING FOG ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. CONTINUE TO LIKE
THE EARLIER IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER
DAY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVN CONCERN NEAR TERM IS VLIFR FOG AT LNS/MDT WITH CONDS
BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. WILL SHOW 2-3HR PERIOD OF THESE CONDS IN 06Z
TAFS BEFORE SIGNALING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 09Z AS A LGT NW WIND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
AT BFD DUE TO COOL NW FLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. REMAINING SITES
SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN HI-BASED SC DECK ALTHOUGH JST
COULD DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER SFC
HIGH BUILDING EWD SUGGESTS LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
AT BFD/JST WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WRN SXNS BY EVE.
REDUCED CONDS LKLY FRI NIGHT WEST-CENTRAL 1/2 OF AIRSPACE WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN 1/3.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING
CONDS FROM VFR-MVFR CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHRA. N-NW WIND GUSTS
25-40 MPH.

SUN...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WEST. LOW CIGS WEST BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AREA-WIDE.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300446
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1246 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST TODAY. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE IS SUPPORTING A FEW -SHRA ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AS OF 04Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FALLING INVERSION
HGTS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE -SHRA TO TAPER OFF. WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW COUNTIES SAW A FEW
FLURRIES TOWARD DAWN...WHEN MDL 900MB TEMPS DIP TO ARND 0C. CLOUD
COVER AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS BY
DAWN SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS...TO THE L40S
FURTHER EAST.

FOG...WHICH HAS FORMED OVR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS A DEVELOPING NW BREEZE ADVECTS
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. AT 04Z...DWPTS WERE IN THE M40S ACROSS
THE KMDT/KLNS AREA...WHILE JUST TO THE NORTH THEY WERE IN THE 30S.
LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF DISSIPATING FOG ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. CONTINUE TO LIKE
THE EARLIER IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER
DAY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME FOG ACROSS THE SE AT MDT AND LNS. TAFS UPDATED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME WIND TO
PICK UP LATE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO BIG CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS...FROM 21Z SET...WHEN I
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO GO
WITH BKN DECK AT AOO AND UNV.

COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

FLOW TOO WESTERLY FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT. PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BFD LATER TONIGHT AND LOWER CIGS
AT JST...GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SE. ASIDE FROM A CHC OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT
DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION IS PEAKING ABOUT NOW...AND THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
THE LAKE WATER WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE AIRMASS...AND DESPITE THE 0C
LINE MOVING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THE COLDEST
TEMPS AT 8H WILL BE ABOUT -3C. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE
LIQUID WHEN IT GETS TO THE GROUND. IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME FLURRIES MAY MIX IN OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION AT THIS POINT. MINS THERE SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE...THE USUAL POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU SHIELD SHOULD BREAK UP AS IT GOES DOWN HILL INTO THE
LOWERS SUS AND SC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. CONTINUE TO LIKE
THE EARLIER IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER
DAY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME FOG ACROSS THE SE AT MDT AND LNS. TAFS UPDATED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME WIND TO
PICK UP LATE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO BIG CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS...FROM 21Z SET...WHEN I
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO GO
WITH BKN DECK AT AOO AND UNV.

COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

FLOW TOO WESTERLY FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT. PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BFD LATER TONIGHT AND LOWER CIGS
AT JST...GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SE. ASIDE FROM A CHC OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300212
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1012 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT
DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION IS PEAKING ABOUT NOW...AND THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
THE LAKE WATER WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE AIRMASS...AND DESPITE THE 0C
LINE MOVING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THE COLDEST
TEMPS AT 8H WILL BE ABOUT -3C. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE
LIQUID WHEN IT GETS TO THE GROUND. IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME FLURRIES MAY MIX IN OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION AT THIS POINT. MINS THERE SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE...THE USUAL POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU SHIELD SHOULD BREAK UP AS IT GOES DOWN HILL INTO THE
LOWERS SUS AND SC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. CONTINUE TO LIKE
THE EARLIER IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER
DAY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS...FROM 21Z SET...WHEN I
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO GO
WITH BKN DECK AT AOO AND UNV.

COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

FLOW TOO WESTERLY FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT. PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BFD LATER TONIGHT AND LOWER CIGS
AT JST...GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SE. ASIDE FROM A CHC OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292348
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT
DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A BLUSTERY AND COLD WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SLOT SLIDING STEADILY SOUTHEAST SINCE SUNSET. LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN-LINE WITH THE SHORE ARE INCHING INLAND.
COLD ADVECTION IS PEAKING ABOUT NOW...AND THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
THE LAKE WATER WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE AIRMASS...AND DESPITE THE 0C
LINE MOVING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THE COLDEST
TEMPS AT 8H WILL BE ABOUT -3C. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE
LIQUID WHEN IT GETS TO THE GROUND. IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME FLURRIES MAY MIX IN OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION AT THIS POINT. MINS THERE SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE...THE NORMAL POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU SHIELD SHOULD STOP SLIDING SOUTHEAST SHORT OF SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AS SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. CONTINUE TO LIKE
THE EARLIER IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER
DAY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS...FROM 21Z SET...WHEN I
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO GO
WITH BKN DECK AT AOO AND UNV.

COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

FLOW TOO WESTERLY FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT. PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BFD LATER TONIGHT AND LOWER CIGS
AT JST...GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SE. ASIDE FROM A CHC OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292316
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
716 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACKING FLOW FINALLY ADVANCING THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ AT MID AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES
STEADY SHOWERS WILL END OVER LANCASTER COUNTY BY 20Z...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL 23Z OR 00Z.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARING HAS REACHED INTO WESTERN PA AHEAD OF
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WHICH HAS INDUCED A LARGE STRATUS
FIELD OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. APPROACHING UPPER TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS WILL SPREAD THICKER STRATUS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL TO -2C BY 12Z THU.
THERE COULD BE A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON
THURSDAY. THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. LIKE EARLIER
IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS...FROM 21Z SET...WHEN I
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO GO
WITH BKN DECK AT AOO AND UNV.

COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

FLOW TOO WESTERLY FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT. PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BFD LATER TONIGHT AND LOWER CIGS
AT JST...GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SE. ASIDE FROM A CHC OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKING FLOW FINALLY ADVANCING THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ AT MID AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES
STEADY SHOWERS WILL END OVER LANCASTER COUNTY BY 20Z...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL 23Z OR 00Z.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARING HAS REACHED INTO WESTERN PA AHEAD OF
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WHICH HAS INDUCED A LARGE STRATUS
FIELD OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. APPROACHING UPPER TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS WILL SPREAD THICKER STRATUS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL TO -2C BY 12Z THU.
THERE COULD BE A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON
THURSDAY. THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. LIKE EARLIER
IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

FLOW TOO WESTERLY FOR MUCH LAKE EFFECT. PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BFD LATER TONIGHT AND LOWER CIGS
AT JST...GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SE. ASIDE FROM A CHC OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKING FLOW FINALLY ADVANCING THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ AT MID AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES
STEADY SHOWERS WILL END OVER LANCASTER COUNTY BY 20Z...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL 23Z OR 00Z.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARING HAS REACHED INTO WESTERN PA AHEAD OF
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WHICH HAS INDUCED A LARGE STRATUS
FIELD OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. APPROACHING UPPER TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS WILL SPREAD THICKER STRATUS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL TO -2C BY 12Z THU.
THERE COULD BE A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON
THURSDAY. THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. LIKE EARLIER
IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW...THROUGH ALL SHARE SIMILAR TIMING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAVE THE UPPER LOW
DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BEFORE MOVING OFF COAST. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...AND
BOTH HAVE THE LOW FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE IT
TRAVERSES NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS
AND OPER ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY
SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES...COUPLED WITH MOIST EASTWARD UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT A RAIN...SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...AND ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
WET.

AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW
MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL RUNS AND NEARLY
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG...MOIST 850MB FLOW.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO
SEE A FREEZE WILL LIKELY GET IT BY MONDAY AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS WILL BECOME VFR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY
MID EVENING AFTER RAIN SHOWERS END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL
PA. LAKE STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU WITH SCT -SHRA AND PERHAPS FLURRIES BY 12Z ACROSS
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

CONDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY VFR BY THU AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291850
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKING FLOW FINALLY ADVANCING THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ AT MID AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES
STEADYSHOWERS WILL END OVER LANCASTER COUNTY BY 20Z...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL 23Z OR 00Z.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARING HAS REACHED INTO WESTERN PA AHEAD OF
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WHICH HAS INDUCED A LARGE STRATUS
FIELD OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. APPROACHING UPPER TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS WILL SPREAD THICKER STRATUS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL TO -2C BY 12Z THU.
THERE COULD BE A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALELY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA ON THURSDAY.
THE DAY SHOULD START CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. LIKE EARLIER
IDEA OF LAKE MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAUSING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ASSOC SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS AND OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...AS
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES
MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

AS ENERGY SHIFTS FROM CLIPPER TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATER
SATURDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPER RUNS AND NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE LE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE U30S
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL
LIKELY GET IT BY MON AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY LATE
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS WILL BECOME VFR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY
MID EVENING AFTER RAIN SHOWERS END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL
PA. LAKE STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU WITH SCT -SHRA AND PERHAPS FLURRIES BY 12Z ACROSS
NORTHWEST MOUNTIANS.

CONDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY VFR BY THU AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291433
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST PA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC FRONT AT 1430Z HAS CLEARED THE LOWER SUSQ...AND IS MAKING VERY
SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH MD AND INTO DE. POST FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY 75 TO 100
MILES...MAINTAINED BY A NARROW AREA OF 700-850MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. TYING THE SHOWER ADVANCEMENT TO THE MODEL HANDLING OF
FGEN...WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN LIKELY TO A
STRIPE OF CATEG POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF MY CWA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOULD STILL BE EXITING LANCASTER
COUNTY BY ARND 21Z.

BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER THE
STILL WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM
THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHILLY AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT LAKE EFFECT
-SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
FALLING INVERSION HGTS SHOULD CAUSE THOSE -SHRA TO DIMINISH AFTER
06Z. MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS
SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NW MTNS
THURSDAY MORNING.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD
ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES OVR THE NW MTNS.
HOWEVER...LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ASSOC SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS AND OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...AS
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES
MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

AS ENERGY SHIFTS FROM CLIPPER TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATER
SATURDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPER RUNS AND NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE LE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE U30S
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL
LIKELY GET IT BY MON AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY LATE
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL PROMOTING VERY SLOW SELY PROGRESS OF
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST PA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING THE FRONT KICK OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT..

A SLOW MOVING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT AND WILL BRING BRIEF...MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS /ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY/.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN /FROM KJST NORTH TO
KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW
CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.

EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL PENN...ALONG WITH
AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY UNDER A BKN
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST PA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC FRONT AT 11Z EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL MD.  VERY
SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CLEARS LANCASTER COUNTY BY 13Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY 75 TO 100 MILES...MAINTAINED BY A
NARROW AREA OF 700-850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. TYING THE
SHOWER ADVANCEMENT TO THE MODEL HANDLING OF FGEN...WHICH KEEPS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN LIKELY TO A STRIPE OF CATEG POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF MY CWA THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOULD
STILL BE EXITING LANCASTER COUNTY BY ARND 21Z.

BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER THE
STILL WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM
THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHILLY AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT LAKE EFFECT
-SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
FALLING INVERSION HGTS SHOULD CAUSE THOSE -SHRA TO DIMINISH AFTER
06Z. MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS
SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NW MTNS
THURSDAY MORNING.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD
ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES OVR THE NW MTNS.
HOWEVER...LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ASSOC SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS AND OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...AS
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES
MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

AS ENERGY SHIFTS FROM CLIPPER TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATER
SATURDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPER RUNS AND NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE LE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE U30S
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL
LIKELY GET IT BY MON AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY LATE
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT TAKING ITS GOOD OLD TIME EDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
STAYS SWRLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. A VEERING WIND PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO KICK THE FRONT WELL EAST OF PENN.

A SLOW MOVING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT AND WILL BRING BRIEF...MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS /ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY/.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN /FROM KJST NORTH TO
KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW
CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.

EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF CENTRAL PENN...ALONG WITH
AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY UNDER A BKN
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291111
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST PA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC FRONT AT 11Z EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL MD.  VERY
SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CLEARS LANCASTER COUNTY BY 13Z. POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY 75 TO 100 MILES...MAINTAINED BY A
NARROW AREA OF 700-850MB FRONTOGENETICAL. TYING THE SHOWER
ADVANCEMENT TO THE MODEL HANDLING OF FGEN...WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN LIKELY TO A STRIPE OF CATEG POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF MY CWA THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOULD
STILL BE EXITING LANCASTER COUNTY BY ARND 21Z.

BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER THE
STILL WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM
THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHILLY AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT LAKE EFFECT
-SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
FALLING INVERSION HGTS SHOULD CAUSE THOSE -SHRA TO DIMINISH AFTER
06Z. MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS
SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NW MTNS
THURSDAY MORNING.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD
ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES OVR THE NW MTNS.
HOWEVER...LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ASSOC SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS AND OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...AS
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES
MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

AS ENERGY SHIFTS FROM CLIPPER TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATER
SATURDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPER RUNS AND NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE LE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE U30S
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL
LIKELY GET IT BY MON AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY LATE
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z.

THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR
GREATER.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN
TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A
COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.

BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY
INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY.

EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291000
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST PA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
STATE LATER TODAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AT 09Z. ALL MDL DATA PUSHES THE FRONT EAST OF EVEN LANCASTER CO BY
ARND 12Z. HOWEVER...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NARROW BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES IN ASSOC WITH
FGEN FORCING CAUSED BY THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER
JET ENTRANCE REGION. ALL NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING THIS BAND OF 700-850MB
FGEN FORCING SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD TODAY...IMPLYING PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE PAINTED
CATEGORICAL POPS SE OF OF KAOO/KUNV/KIPT THIS MORNING...A SCENARIO
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS. BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING
LANCASTER CO BY ARND 21Z.

BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER THE
STILL WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM
THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHILLY AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT LAKE EFFECT
-SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
FALLING INVERSION HGTS SHOULD CAUSE THOSE -SHRA TO DIMINISH AFTER
06Z. MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS
SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NW MTNS
THURSDAY MORNING.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD
ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES OVR THE NW MTNS.
HOWEVER...LAKE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW YIELDS A BRIGHTER DAY ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE FROM CANADA AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ASSOC SFC CLIPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THAT AREA. BOTH GEFS AND OPER
ECMWF/CANADIAN MDLS ALL POINT TOWARD A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...AS
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA EARLY SATURDAY...THERMAL PROFILES
MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

AS ENERGY SHIFTS FROM CLIPPER TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATER
SATURDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND NW FLOW WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. OPER RUNS AND NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP COASTAL LOW FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...COLD NW FLOW MAY PRODUCE LE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST YET THIS
SEASON. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS POINT TOWARD DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE U30S
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THIS OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVR THE REGION. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE WILL
LIKELY GET IT BY MON AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN
ALL GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PA. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA BY LATE
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z.

THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR
GREATER.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN
TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A
COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.

BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY
INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY.

EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290810
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS
MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING
DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA
SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO
THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN
FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90
PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS.

BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-
WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S
NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z.

THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR
GREATER.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN
TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A
COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.

BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY
INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY.

EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290619
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS
MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING
DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA
SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO
THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN
FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90
PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS.

BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-
WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S
NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TIMING OF THE SHOWERS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z.

MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD
FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW.

PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.

EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG
WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290334
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1134 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROKEN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS PRECEDES THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE
CWA. STILL A FEW PIXELS OF >50 DBZ ON THE RADAR IN THE NW MTNS.
BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ALL THE ECHOES HAS
DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET AS EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY
LTG BOLT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IN THE GRIDS. GUSTS STILL IN THE
20S/L30S OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST HAVE DECOUPLED. WINDS PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY SRLY FLOW AS IT
GETS TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THEREFORE...THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO GET INTO SERN PA...SO HIGH
POPS AND MINISCULE QPF ON ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES
MCLDY WED. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. IT MAY EVEN TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO
COMPLETELY MOVE THROUGH LANCASTER CO. LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL
ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-WARM
LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TIMING OF THE SHOWERS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z.

MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD
FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW.

PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.

EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG
WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROKEN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS PRECEDES THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE
CWA. STILL A FEW PIXELS OF >50 DBZ ON THE RADAR IN THE NW MTNS.
BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ALL THE ECHOES HAS
DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET AS EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY
LTG BOLT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IN THE GRIDS. GUSTS STILL IN THE
20S/L30S OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST HAVE DECOUPLED. WINDS PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY SRLY FLOW AS IT
GETS TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THEREFORE...THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO GET INTO SERN PA...SO HIGH
POPS AND MINISCULE QPF ON ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES
MCLDY WED. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING. IT MAY EVEN TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO
COMPLETELY MOVE THROUGH LANCASTER CO. LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL
ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-WARM
LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z.

MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD
FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW.

PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.

EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG
WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
40 DEWPOINTS IN KCLE AND KDAY NOW...SO THAT MUST BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHAT LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED TO JUST
A STRAY POSITIVE BOLT OR TWO. PRECIP CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
NWRN COS...BUT HAS NOT MADE TOO MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS YET. EXPECT
THIS TO CHANGE AS A LITTLE WAVE SEEMS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN KUCP
AND KFKL. GUSTS ARE MUCH LOWER NOW...VS WHEN WE HAD FULL MIXING.
GUSTS IN THE 20S-L30S STILL OCCURRING JUST A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHOWERS. RAINFALL IS NOTHING TO FRET OVER - GENERALLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. THE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT/CONVECTION OVER
PBZ/S NRN AREA COULD MAKE A LITTLE STRIPE OF 0.5IN AS IT SLIDES
OVER THE NWRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET PAST BLUE MTN UNTIL AFETR SUNRISE ON
WED. MOST/ALL OF THE LIGHTNING SHOULD BE OVER EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. LARGER WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS ON TRACK TO SLOW THE
FRONT DOWN A BIT. BUT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES
MCLDY WED. OVER THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE
FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE
CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY
AM LOWS WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z.

MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD
FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW.

PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.

EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG
WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
40 DEWPOINTS IN KCLE AND KDAY NOW...SO THAT MUST BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHAT LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED TO JUST
A STRAY POSITIVE BOLT OR TWO. PRECIP CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
NWRN COS...BUT HAS NOT MADE TOO MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS YET. EXPECT
THIS TO CHANGE AS A LITTLE WAVE SEEMS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN KUCP
AND KFKL. GUSTS ARE MUCH LOWER NOW...VS WHEN WE HAD FULL MIXING.
GUSTS IN THE 20S-L30S STILL OCCURRING JUST A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHOWERS. RAINFALL IS NOTHING TO FRET OVER - GENERALLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. THE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT/CONVECTION OVER
PBZ/S NRN AREA COULD MAKE A LITTLE STRIPE OF 0.5IN AS IT SLIDES
OVER THE NWRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET PAST BLUE MTN UNTIL AFETR SUNRISE ON
WED. MOST/ALL OF THE LIGHTNING SHOULD BE OVER EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. LARGER WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS ON TRACK TO SLOW THE
FRONT DOWN A BIT. BUT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES
MCLDY WED. OVER THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE
FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE
CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY
AM LOWS WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NW PA. DID SEE AN INDICATION
OF HAIL ON RADAR EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS FROM 220 DEGREES LOCALLY 25-30KTS. COLD FRONT WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA 00Z WED. VCNTY TSTORM
IMPACTS AT KBFD.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282138
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WARM LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT OVER CENTRAL OH. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND
WELL INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PA
BY 21Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL
WINDS...MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO
EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST HALF OF MY AREA IN MRGL SPC OUTLOOK
FOR STORMS.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL PA. BOTH GEFS
AND SREF SUPPORT CATEGORICAL OR NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SUSQ
VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DRYING ARRIVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS
OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT
INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NW PA. DID SEE AN INDICATION
OF HAIL ON RADAR EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS FROM 220 DEGREES LOCALLY 25-30KTS. COLD FRONT WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA 00Z WED. VCNTY TSTORM
IMPACTS AT KBFD.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282014
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WARM LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT OVER CENTRAL OH. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND
WELL INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PA
BY 21Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL
WINDS...MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO
EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST HALF OF MY AREA IN MRGL SPC OUTLOOK
FOR STORMS.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL PA. BOTH GEFS
AND SREF SUPPORT CATEGORICAL OR NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SUSQ
VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DRYING ARRIVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS
OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT
INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS FROM 220 DEGREES LOCALLY 25-30KTS. COLD FRONT WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA 00Z WED. VCNTY TSTORM
IMPACTS AT KBFD.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WARM LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT OVER CENTRAL OH. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND
WELL INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PA
BY 21Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL
WINDS...MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO
EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST HALF OF MY AREA IN MRGL SPC OUTLOOK
FOR STORMS.

POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL PA. BOTH GEFS
AND SREF SUPPORT CATEGORICAL OR NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SUSQ
VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DRYING ARRIVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS
OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT
INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...DELIVERING A
POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE
RESOLVED W/SHORTWAVE...BUT MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SAT. COLDER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY
AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
AS COLD AS -8C TO -10C.

UPPER LVL TROF IS PROGGED BY ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TO LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...SUNDAY NIGHT
MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THIS OUTBREAK...AS SFC HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS FROM 220 DEGREES LOCALLY 25-30KTS. COLD FRONT WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA 00Z WED. VCNTY TSTORM
IMPACTS AT KBFD.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR QUICKLY WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS SW FLOW BRINGS IN MILD AIR
AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW MTNS ARND 21Z. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL WINDS...IMPLIES THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO LATE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE BOTH GEFS AND SREF DATA SUPPORT A CATEGORICAL
CHC OF RAIN WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SUSQ VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP
SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE
FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE
CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY
AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW
MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...DELIVERING A
POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE
RESOLVED W/SHORTWAVE...BUT MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SAT. COLDER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY
AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
AS COLD AS -8C TO -10C.

UPPER LVL TROF IS PROGGED BY ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TO LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...SUNDAY NIGHT
MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THIS OUTBREAK...AS SFC HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC WINDS FROM 200-240 DEG WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES. LAYERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF GUSTY SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS REACHING FAR WRN/NWRN PA
AROUND 00Z WED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS AT BFD/JST ATTM.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/18Z:
LIMITED/BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LKLY
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE FROM
00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR QUICKLY WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS SW FLOW BRINGS IN MILD AIR
AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW MTNS ARND 21Z. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL WINDS...IMPLIES THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO LATE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE BOTH GEFS AND SREF DATA SUPPORT A CATEGORICAL
CHC OF RAIN WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SUSQ VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP
SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE
FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE
CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY
AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW
MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...DELIVERING A
POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE
RESOLVED W/SHORTWAVE...BUT MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SAT. COLDER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY
AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
AS COLD AS -8C TO -10C.

UPPER LVL TROF IS PROGGED BY ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TO LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...SUNDAY NIGHT
MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THIS OUTBREAK...AS SFC HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC WINDS FROM 200-240 DEG WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES. LAYERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF GUSTY SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS REACHING FAR WRN/NWRN PA
AROUND 00Z WED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS AT BFD/JST ATTM.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/18Z:
LIMITED/BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LKLY
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE FROM
00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL





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