Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCTP 252012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW THE WEATHER
PATTERN TO BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK AND
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS
TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT GET THICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WELL-ALOFT MAY THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ANY LOW
CLOUD DECK AND REAL MOISTURE DOES NOT SHOW UP UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER MOISTURE DOES SHOW UP OVER THE SE BY
DAYBREAK - SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. BUT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
AT 4-5KFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE
EAST AND ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE GET
CHILLY AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE SO COLD AS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LLJ BRINGING HIGHER
POPS AS DAY GIVES WAY TO EVE. SCT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE W AND N
LATE AFT INTO SAT NIGHT AS POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPS /WITH ISO
STRONGER STORMS POSS APPROACHING WESTERN BORDER OF CWA IN VICINITY
OF A WARM FRONT./ SPC BRINGS SLIGHT RISK AREA TO NEAR W BORDER.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HUMIDITY CREEPING BACK
UP AND BECOMING NOTICABLE LATER IN THE DAY. A VERY MILD AND
SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE FOR SAT NIGHT.

MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST SHAPING UP TO BE SUNDAY. SPC
SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OVER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH FOCUS ON A POTENT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND CROSSING PA SUN NIGHT. EFFECTS
OF MCS MAY IMPACT HOW EVENT PLAYS OUT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY...LIFT AND SHEAR PEAK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS/EVOLUTION...BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS POTENT ENOUGH FOR POSS OF SCT SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHEAST EARLY WEEK AS RIDGE
ESTABLISHS ITSELF AGAIN OVER WESTERN U.S. AND NEAR BERMUDA. SO
CONTINUED MENTION OF SCT TSTMS MONDAY. TROUGH SLOWLY FILLS THROUGH
THE WEEK...THOUGH DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
A COUPLE NOTICABLY COOL MORNINGS AND BELOW NORMAL MAXES BEFORE
TEMPS SLOWLY GRADUALLY REBOUND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS RULING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.
SO I WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT. GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION...AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS THEN POSSIBLE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR. SHRA POSS MTNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY
ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST
A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW THE WEATHER
PATTERN TO BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK AND
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS
TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT GET THICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WELL-ALOFT MAY THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ANY LOW
CLOUD DECK AND REAL MOISTURE DOES NOT SHOW UP UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER MOISTURE DOES SHOW UP OVER THE SE BY
DAYBREAK - SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. BUT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
AT 4-5KFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE
EAST AND ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE GET
CHILLY AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE SO COLD AS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FROM PREVIOUS TEXTS...

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS RULING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.
SO I WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT. GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION...AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS THEN POSSIBLE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR. SHRA POSS MTNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY
ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST
A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW THE WEATHER
PATTERN TO BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK AND
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY FEW IF ANY LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS
TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT GET THICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WELL-ALOFT MAY THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ANY LOW
CLOUD DECK AND REAL MOISTURE DOES NOT SHOW UP UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER MOISTURE DOES SHOW UP OVER THE SE BY
DAYBREAK - SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. BUT MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
AT 4-5KFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE
EAST AND ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE GET
CHILLY AGAIN...BUT NOT QUITE SO COLD AS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FROM PREVIOUS TEXTS...

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS RULING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.
SO I WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT. GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION...AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS THEN POSSIBLE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR. SHRA POSS MTNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY
ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST
A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS WARMED VERY MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OLD CURVE DUE TO THE
EXTREME INVERSION OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE RISE HAS FLATTENED
OUT TO A MORE GENTLE RISE AS THE MIXING LAYER RISES. TWEAKS TO
THAT HOURLY TEMP CURVE...BUT OTHERWISE NIL CHANGES.

PREV...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS RULING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VALLEY FOG AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING. GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN WARM FRONT NEARS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION...AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY
ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST
A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS WARMED VERY MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OLD CURVE DUE TO THE
EXTREME INVERSION OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE RISE HAS FLATTENED
OUT TO A MORE GENTLE RISE AS THE MIXING LAYER RISES. TWEAKS TO
THAT HOURLY TEMP CURVE...BUT OTHERWISE NIL CHANGES.

PREV...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS RULING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. VALLEY FOG AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING. GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN WARM FRONT NEARS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION...AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KBFD TIED THEIR RECORD MIN AT 39F THIS MORNING...THEN SUSEQUENTLY
ROSE 21 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS. WOW. ALL OTHER SITES WERE WITHIN JUST
A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO FOG AT BFD SO FAR...WILL PULL IT OUT OF THE 12Z
TAF PACKAGE. FALLING DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE GROUND FOG AROUND 6 AM BEHIND THE
OFFICE HERE.

OVERALL...A NICE MID SUMMER DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

DECENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFT...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION... AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO FOG AT BFD SO FAR...WILL PULL IT OUT OF THE 12Z
TAF PACKAGE. FALLING DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE
FOG OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE GROUND FOG AROUND 6 AM BEHIND THE
OFFICE HERE.

OVERALL...A NICE MID SUMMER DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

DECENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFT...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION... AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL NO FOG AT BFD...DEWPOINT STILL FALLING.

NICE MID SUMMER DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

DECENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFT...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION... AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL NO FOG AT BFD...DEWPOINT STILL FALLING.

NICE MID SUMMER DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

DECENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFT...INTO
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WARM ADVECTION... AND RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FAIR DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FOREST FIRES...WE
WILL HAVE A SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY...BUT REFRESHING.

DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY START TO CREEP BACK UP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAKING IT INTO
THE FAR NW BY MORNING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY IN MOST AREAS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF EVENTUAL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS AS WE COME UNDER A ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WSW
LOW LEVEL JET AND SURGING IT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INITIALLY LOOKS LIMITED...HELPING
TEMPER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL EXPERIENCE. I LEANED AWAY
FROM THE VERY WET SREF POPS...USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE BETTER
CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FROM THE MID 70S NW TO MID 80
SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING UP BRINGING HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN PA
FOR THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A SECONDARY
EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY SPARKING OFF AN MCS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

LATEST TIMING HAS SUNDAY BEING SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE
EXPECTED MCS MENTIONED ABOVE FADES AND MAINLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. LACKING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING OR PLACEMENT...I KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE STEADILY FALLING UPPER
HEIGHTS...A TAD BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT WILL REPRESENT
A DOWNWARD TREND THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE EASTERN US.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THAT COMES
ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/GEFS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND IMPLY WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONG
MCS/SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. THE SREF IS LESS DEFINED SINCE THE NAM
WANTS TO BREAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS INTO PIECES NW AND SE OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/GFS AND A SINGLE
STRONGER LOW...BUT IS SLOWER. THIS TIMEFRAME SEEMS TO REPRESENT
THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL SO LIKELY MOS POPS
LOOK REASONABLE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DELIVER ANOTHER
CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL LAST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
GEFS SHOWS 500 HEIGHTS SOME 3-4 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPING
AND SETTLING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE TROUGH IS MADE TO BEGIN FILLING AND SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. IT
SHOULD EQUATE TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
END OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250535
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF NICELY AS
EXPECTED. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND PW AROUND 0.3" ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA. HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK FOR FORECAST MINS WITHIN A DEG
OR TWO OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES EARLY FRIDAY.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250535
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF NICELY AS
EXPECTED. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND PW AROUND 0.3" ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA. HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK FOR FORECAST MINS WITHIN A DEG
OR TWO OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES EARLY FRIDAY.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF NICELY AS
EXPECTED. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND PW AROUND 0.3" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK FOR FORECAST MINS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO
OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES EARLY FRIDAY.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF NICELY AS
EXPECTED. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND PW AROUND 0.3" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK FOR FORECAST MINS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO
OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES EARLY FRIDAY.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF NICELY AS
EXPECTED. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND PW AROUND 0.3" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK FOR FORECAST MINS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO
OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES EARLY FRIDAY.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWING CU FALLING APART ACROSS CENTRAL
PA AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVR VA IS DRIFTING OVR SE PA
AT 23Z...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF NICELY AS
EXPECTED. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND PW AROUND 0.3" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK FOR FORECAST MINS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO
OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES EARLY FRIDAY.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWING CU FALLING APART ACROSS CENTRAL
PA AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVR VA IS DRIFTING OVR SE PA
AT 23Z...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS THINNING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MID CLOUD
SHEARING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY 02Z.

CEXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
OFF RAPIDLY. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. FORECAST MINS REMAIN WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER
SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES TONIGHT.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWING CU FALLING APART ACROSS CENTRAL
PA AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVR VA IS DRIFTING OVR SE PA
AT 23Z...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS THINNING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MID CLOUD
SHEARING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY 02Z.

CEXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
OFF RAPIDLY. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. FORECAST MINS REMAIN WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER
SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES TONIGHT.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWING CU FALLING APART ACROSS CENTRAL
PA AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVR VA IS DRIFTING OVR SE PA
AT 23Z...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM
RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO
AND KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP NW MTNS.
SUN...AM LOW CIGS POSS NW MTNS. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
MON...ONCL VIS RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242315
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS THINNING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MID CLOUD
SHEARING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY 02Z.

CEXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
OFF RAPIDLY. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. FORECAST MINS REMAIN WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER
SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES TONIGHT.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE AFTN VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES BTWN
4-6KFT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SUNSET...WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM
WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD
OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO AND
KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242315
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS THINNING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MID CLOUD
SHEARING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY 02Z.

CEXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
OFF RAPIDLY. THE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. FORECAST MINS REMAIN WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER
SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY PLACES TONIGHT.

SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS. THESE COLD
TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS. THE AIR
WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. BUT
CLIMATOLOGY AND WATER TEMPS ARGUE STRONGLY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE...SO WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG. THOSE COLD TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN AREAS. WILL
ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY- TENUOUS TEMP
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE AFTN VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES BTWN
4-6KFT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SUNSET...WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM
WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD
OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO AND
KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242050
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATED LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL BE PUSHING TO THE S/E SOON AND DIURNAL HEATING ON
IT/S WAY DOWN SOON AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AT
18Z AS DRY AIR HAS MIXED WELL/DEEP. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF. BUF POINTED OUT THAT A GOOD SMOKE LAYER IS
HEADING AT US /MAINLY TO THE N OF PA/ FROM CANADA. THIS MAY SERVE
TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL WEIGHT THE
FORECAST ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE EFFECT.
MOS GUIDANCE RARELY PUMPS OUT RECORD MINS AT ANY POINT...SO WHEN 2
OF OUR CLIMO SITES ARE GUIDED TOWARD REC MINS...THAT IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THE SET UP IS NEARLY-PERFECT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURES AND 8H TEMPS
ARE NOT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS - JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WIND
SHOULD DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY
PLACES TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS.
THE COLD TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.
THE AIR WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THOSE COLD TEMPS
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN
AREAS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY-
TENUOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE AFTN VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES BTWN
4-6KFT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SUNSET...WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM
WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD
OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO AND
KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242050
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATED LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL BE PUSHING TO THE S/E SOON AND DIURNAL HEATING ON
IT/S WAY DOWN SOON AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AT
18Z AS DRY AIR HAS MIXED WELL/DEEP. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF. BUF POINTED OUT THAT A GOOD SMOKE LAYER IS
HEADING AT US /MAINLY TO THE N OF PA/ FROM CANADA. THIS MAY SERVE
TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL WEIGHT THE
FORECAST ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE EFFECT.
MOS GUIDANCE RARELY PUMPS OUT RECORD MINS AT ANY POINT...SO WHEN 2
OF OUR CLIMO SITES ARE GUIDED TOWARD REC MINS...THAT IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THE SET UP IS NEARLY-PERFECT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURES AND 8H TEMPS
ARE NOT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS - JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WIND
SHOULD DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY
PLACES TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS.
THE COLD TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.
THE AIR WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THOSE COLD TEMPS
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN
AREAS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY-
TENUOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE AFTN VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES BTWN
4-6KFT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF SUNSET...WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND FOR ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM
WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATE KBFD IS THE ONLY AIRFIELD LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD
OF LOW VSBYS...WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS AT KUNV...KAOO AND
KIPT.

ANY EARLY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...THEN A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS/LGT WIND FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242000
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATED LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL BE PUSHING TO THE S/E SOON AND DIURNAL HEATING ON
IT/S WAY DOWN SOON AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AT
18Z AS DRY AIR HAS MIXED WELL/DEEP. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF. BUF POINTED OUT THAT A GOOD SMOKE LAYER IS
HEADING AT US /MAINLY TO THE N OF PA/ FROM CANADA. THIS MAY SERVE
TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL WEIGHT THE
FORECAST ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE EFFECT.
MOS GUIDANCE RARELY PUMPS OUT RECORD MINS AT ANY POINT...SO WHEN 2
OF OUR CLIMO SITES ARE GUIDED TOWARD REC MINS...THAT IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THE SET UP IS NEARLY-PERFECT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURES AND 8H TEMPS
ARE NOT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS - JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WIND
SHOULD DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY
PLACES TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS.
THE COLD TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.
THE AIR WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THOSE COLD TEMPS
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN
AREAS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY-
TENUOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU BEING HELPED ALONG BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE
THROUGH THE AREA AT 18Z. THIS FEATURE AND THE HEATING SHOULD BOTH
BE GOING AWAY BY 00Z...AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER
BREAKS/DISSIPATE. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET MOST OF THE CU WILL
BE GONE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE USUAL VALLEY FOG FORM WITH
SEASONALLY-COLD TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO WELL-BELOW THE
STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS PRETTY DRY AND HAVE
KEPT MENTIONS OF FOG AWAY FROM ALL BUT KBFD. VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL
OF FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FLOATS OVERHEAD AND
SLIDES TO THE EAST. HUMIDITY AND SCT TSRA WILL RETURN SAT
AFTN/EVENING...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS WORSE FOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH
MORE-WIDESPREAD SH/TSRA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242000
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATED LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL BE PUSHING TO THE S/E SOON AND DIURNAL HEATING ON
IT/S WAY DOWN SOON AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AT
18Z AS DRY AIR HAS MIXED WELL/DEEP. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF. BUF POINTED OUT THAT A GOOD SMOKE LAYER IS
HEADING AT US /MAINLY TO THE N OF PA/ FROM CANADA. THIS MAY SERVE
TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL WEIGHT THE
FORECAST ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE EFFECT.
MOS GUIDANCE RARELY PUMPS OUT RECORD MINS AT ANY POINT...SO WHEN 2
OF OUR CLIMO SITES ARE GUIDED TOWARD REC MINS...THAT IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THE SET UP IS NEARLY-PERFECT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURES AND 8H TEMPS
ARE NOT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS - JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WIND
SHOULD DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY
PLACES TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS.
THE COLD TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.
THE AIR WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THOSE COLD TEMPS
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN
AREAS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY-
TENUOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NOW IN PLACE...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...VARYING DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL BE FORCED BY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MEAN TROF PATTERN OVER THE EAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG
WITH LESS HUMID AIR. THOUGH MIN TEMPS SAT...SUN AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIG CLOUDS AND PCPN.

PRECIP WISE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS PA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROF. THUS MAINTAINED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE
THROUGH PA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED.

ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MIN AND MAX TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE WEATHER WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR USUALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WARMEST WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU BEING HELPED ALONG BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE
THROUGH THE AREA AT 18Z. THIS FEATURE AND THE HEATING SHOULD BOTH
BE GOING AWAY BY 00Z...AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER
BREAKS/DISSIPATE. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET MOST OF THE CU WILL
BE GONE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE USUAL VALLEY FOG FORM WITH
SEASONALLY-COLD TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO WELL-BELOW THE
STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS PRETTY DRY AND HAVE
KEPT MENTIONS OF FOG AWAY FROM ALL BUT KBFD. VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL
OF FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FLOATS OVERHEAD AND
SLIDES TO THE EAST. HUMIDITY AND SCT TSRA WILL RETURN SAT
AFTN/EVENING...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS WORSE FOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH
MORE-WIDESPREAD SH/TSRA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241827
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATED LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL BE PUSHING TO THE S/E SOON AND DIURNAL HEATING ON
IT/S WAY DOWN SOON AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AT
18Z AS DRY AIR HAS MIXED WELL/DEEP. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF. BUF POINTED OUT THAT A GOOD SMOKE LAYER IS
HEADING AT US /MAINLY TO THE N OF PA/ FROM CANADA. THIS MAY SERVE
TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL WEIGHT THE
FORECAST ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE EFFECT.
MOS GUIDANCE RARELY PUMPS OUT RECORD MINS AT ANY POINT...SO WHEN 2
OF OUR CLIMO SITES ARE GUIDED TOWARD REC MINS...THAT IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THE SET UP IS NEARLY-PERFECT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURES AND 8H TEMPS
ARE NOT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS - JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WIND
SHOULD DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF RECORD MINS AT MANY
PLACES TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD MINS.
THE COLD TEMPS ARE A CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.
THE AIR WILL BE SO DRY THAT IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO FOG IN. WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THOSE COLD TEMPS
IMMEDIATELY AROUND KBFD COULD ALSO CREATE SOME FROST IN THE OPEN
AREAS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FROST BUT NOT GO ADVY BECAUSE OF
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ALREADY-
TENUOUS TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CHILLY START...FRIDAY WILL SEE A GOOD RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NW EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN THE
COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL CU TO FORM. MAXES
UNDER 12-14C 8H TEMPS WORKS OUT TO HIGHS IN THE L70S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND L80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU BEING HELPED ALONG BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE
THROUGH THE AREA AT 18Z. THIS FEATURE AND THE HEATING SHOULD BOTH
BE GOING AWAY BY 00Z...AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER
BREAKS/DISSIPATE. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET MOST OF THE CU WILL
BE GONE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE USUAL VALLEY FOG FORM WITH
SEASONALLY-COLD TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO WELL-BELOW THE
STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS PRETTY DRY AND HAVE
KEPT MENTIONS OF FOG AWAY FROM ALL BUT KBFD. VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL
OF FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FLOATS OVERHEAD AND
SLIDES TO THE EAST. HUMIDITY AND SCT TSRA WILL RETURN SAT
AFTN/EVENING...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS WORSE FOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH
MORE-WIDESPREAD SH/TSRA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG N...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT PM TSRA/MVFR
POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY MORNING JULY 25TH:

BFD - 39 SET IN 2013 - NOT LONG AGO BUT SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD
JST - 45 SET IN 1957
AOO - 48 SET IN 1957
IPT - 48 SET IN 1953
MDT - 53 SET IN 1953

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241525
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATING LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
PRODUCING LARGER-SCALE LIFT TO AID IN THE CLOUD FORMATION. BUT
BREAKS WILL STILL BE THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY THE DRY
AIR WILL START TO MIX THOROUGHLY AND START TO DISSIPATE THE
CLOUDS IN LOTS OF AREAS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. RECORD MINS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
IN AT LEAST A FEW SITES TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING FOG DUE TO THE
COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS. BUT THE AIR IS GOING TO BE VERY
DRY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER...MAKING THE
FOG FORECAST THERE PRETTY TOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF CLOUDS. CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.

CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED FOG OVERNIGHT.

THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DECENT CONDTIONS ACROSS PA INTO
SAT MORNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

STILL A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241525
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING GENERATING LOTS OF CU OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. WEAK/MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
PRODUCING LARGER-SCALE LIFT TO AID IN THE CLOUD FORMATION. BUT
BREAKS WILL STILL BE THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY THE DRY
AIR WILL START TO MIX THOROUGHLY AND START TO DISSIPATE THE
CLOUDS IN LOTS OF AREAS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. BY SUNSET A LOT OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
GONE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. RECORD MINS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
IN AT LEAST A FEW SITES TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING FOG DUE TO THE
COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS. BUT THE AIR IS GOING TO BE VERY
DRY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER...MAKING THE
FOG FORECAST THERE PRETTY TOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF CLOUDS. CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.

CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED FOG OVERNIGHT.

THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DECENT CONDTIONS ACROSS PA INTO
SAT MORNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

STILL A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF CLOUDS. CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.

CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED FOG OVERNIGHT.

THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DECENT CONDTIONS ACROSS PA INTO
SAT MORNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

STILL A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF CLOUDS. CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.

CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED FOG OVERNIGHT.

THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DECENT CONDTIONS ACROSS PA INTO
SAT MORNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

STILL A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS CUT BACK THE THREAT OF FOG.

09Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS CUT BACK THE THREAT OF FOG.

09Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

06Z TAFS SENT.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH /OR
LESS/ WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL POOL AT 850 MB...AND LIGHT WIND...
TO BRING A VERY CHILLY MID-SUMMER NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40F ACROSS THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55F THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM /STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT USHERED
IN THE COOL AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE
THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

06Z TAFS SENT.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240657
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER
EARLIER C FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AS OF
0530Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS /MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY.

MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN ZONES
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM YESTERDAY/S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

06Z TAFS SENT.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240657
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND STAY
WITH US RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVY...SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER
EARLIER C FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AS OF
0530Z.

A FEW...WEAK VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
EARLY TODAY AND COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES LOCATED ACROSS THAT REGION TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS /MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/.

A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP TO TRAP PLENTY OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TODAY.

MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN ZONES
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM YESTERDAY/S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

A STUBBORN...AND QUITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRATO CU CLOUDS AT ITS BASE. THE
CLOUD LAYER /BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL/ SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/ AS A SURGE OF DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL
AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE U60S FOR A HIGH IN THE KBFD AREA...WHILE THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION WILL BE AROUND 80F /OR ABOUT 6 DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

06Z TAFS SENT.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

06Z TAFS SENT.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO S PA.

06Z TAFS SENT.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF
LOWER STRATUS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND FOG BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF LOWER STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOIST
FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND FOG BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF LOWER STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOIST
FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND FOG BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF LOWER STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOIST
FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND FOG BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DECK OF LOWER STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOIST
FLOW BRINGING IN IFR CIGS INTO KJST.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN KJST AND KBFD...AND GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS...ALL LOCATIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KIPT.

EXPECTING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW TO ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...EXPECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT.
A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS...ALL LOCATIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KIPT.

EXPECTING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW TO ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...EXPECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
952 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS...ALL LOCATIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KIPT.

EXPECTING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW TO ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...EXPECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
952 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A HANDFUL
OF WARNINGS THIS EVENING...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW
MOVING PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CYCLONICALLY SHEARED FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THERE COULD STILL
BE BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN
TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS...ALL LOCATIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KIPT.

EXPECTING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW TO ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...EXPECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240112
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
912 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A
HANDFUL OF WARNINGS...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW MOVING
PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
AS A POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS...ALL LOCATIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KIPT.

EXPECTING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW TO ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...EXPECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240112
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
912 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A
HANDFUL OF WARNINGS...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW MOVING
PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
AS A POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS...ALL LOCATIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KIPT.

EXPECTING UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW TO ADVECT LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...EXPECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
SATURDAY...WITH THE RISK OF SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE
MON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240045
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE ON A
HANDFUL OF WARNINGS...BASICALLY A LOW END EVENT WITH SLOW MOVING
PULSING CELLS IN WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
AS A POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRUSH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...AVERAGING OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE BY 12Z THU. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL TEMPER THAT
FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE. MID 50S SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS. THUS...THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY.
WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232222
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND REPORTS AND A HANDFUL OF PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF ONGOING CONVECTION COVERS THE LOWERS SUSQ IN
A LINE FROM THE FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTY BORDER NEWD THROUGH
NORTHEAST LANCASTER COUNTY. PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE ONLY REPORTS COMING FROM THESE AT THIS HOUR.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...A SLOWLY WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESO GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF THE SH/TSRA THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POP UP AS LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN TIER A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES BY. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SHOWERS TO
BE TO THE S OF IPT/UNV/JST BY 00Z. SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE SERN COS/SRN TIER. BUT COVERAGE
DIPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORMS DIE OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE N/W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
JUMPING ON-BOARD WITH THE NAM IS PUSHING THE DRY AIR AND SHOWERS
OFF TO THE S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUITY
BETWEEN MOST FCSTS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SHRA LINGERING IN THE
SRN TIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THAT
SLIGHT CHC POP THERE...BUT DRY IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL
TEMPER THAT FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE.
MID 50S SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS
VERY DRY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232222
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND REPORTS AND A HANDFUL OF PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF ONGOING CONVECTION COVERS THE LOWERS SUSQ IN
A LINE FROM THE FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTY BORDER NEWD THROUGH
NORTHEAST LANCASTER COUNTY. PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE ONLY REPORTS COMING FROM THESE AT THIS HOUR.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...A SLOWLY WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESO GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF THE SH/TSRA THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POP UP AS LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND BRUSHES THE NRN TIER A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES BY. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SHOWERS TO
BE TO THE S OF IPT/UNV/JST BY 00Z. SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE SERN COS/SRN TIER. BUT COVERAGE
DIPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORMS DIE OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE N/W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
JUMPING ON-BOARD WITH THE NAM IS PUSHING THE DRY AIR AND SHOWERS
OFF TO THE S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUITY
BETWEEN MOST FCSTS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SHRA LINGERING IN THE
SRN TIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THAT
SLIGHT CHC POP THERE...BUT DRY IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL
TEMPER THAT FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE.
MID 50S SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS
VERY DRY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A FEW TOWERS HAVE BROKEN THE CAP. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING MORE-WIDESPREAD TSRA FOR NOW. PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
ARE RATHER WEAK AND SPC OUTLOOK IS ONLY FOR VERY SMALL CHC OF
SVR WIND/HAIL. NOT MUCH SHEAR - WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE
N/E. CAPES ARE HIGH IN THE CELLS THAT ARE BIG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...SO PULSE STORMS AND VERY TRANSIENT/SHORT-LIVED SVR THREAT IS
WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE CELLS
YET...WITH THE TERRAIN SEEMINGLY THE GENESIS FOR THE FIRST
CUSTOMERS OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO COVER MORE OF THE RADAR SCOPE
SHORTLY...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE THE
EVENING IS OVER. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE
AND IS PRACTICALLY TO KBFD AT 1830Z. DRY AIR BEHIND IT IS ALSO
COOLING THE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END
TO SHOWERS FOR THE NW AS IT MOVES TO THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST MESO GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF THE
SH/TSRA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POP UP
AS LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER A FEW HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES BY.
EXPECT ALMOST ALL SHOWERS TO BE TO THE S OF IPT/UNV/JST BY 00Z.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE SERN
COS/SRN TIER. BUT COVERAGE DIPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORMS DIE OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE N/W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
JUMPING ON-BOARD WITH THE NAM IS PUSHING THE DRY AIR AND SHOWERS
OFF TO THE S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUITY
BETWEEN MOST FCSTS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SHRA LINGERING IN THE
SRN TIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THAT
SLIGHT CHC POP THERE...BUT DRY IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL
TEMPER THAT FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE.
MID 50S SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS
VERY DRY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A FEW TOWERS HAVE BROKEN THE CAP. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING MORE-WIDESPREAD TSRA FOR NOW. PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
ARE RATHER WEAK AND SPC OUTLOOK IS ONLY FOR VERY SMALL CHC OF
SVR WIND/HAIL. NOT MUCH SHEAR - WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE
N/E. CAPES ARE HIGH IN THE CELLS THAT ARE BIG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...SO PULSE STORMS AND VERY TRANSIENT/SHORT-LIVED SVR THREAT IS
WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE CELLS
YET...WITH THE TERRAIN SEEMINGLY THE GENESIS FOR THE FIRST
CUSTOMERS OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO COVER MORE OF THE RADAR SCOPE
SHORTLY...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE THE
EVENING IS OVER. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE
AND IS PRACTICALLY TO KBFD AT 1830Z. DRY AIR BEHIND IT IS ALSO
COOLING THE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END
TO SHOWERS FOR THE NW AS IT MOVES TO THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST MESO GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF THE
SH/TSRA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POP UP
AS LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER A FEW HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES BY.
EXPECT ALMOST ALL SHOWERS TO BE TO THE S OF IPT/UNV/JST BY 00Z.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE SERN
COS/SRN TIER. BUT COVERAGE DIPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORMS DIE OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE N/W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
JUMPING ON-BOARD WITH THE NAM IS PUSHING THE DRY AIR AND SHOWERS
OFF TO THE S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUITY
BETWEEN MOST FCSTS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SHRA LINGERING IN THE
SRN TIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THAT
SLIGHT CHC POP THERE...BUT DRY IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL
TEMPER THAT FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE.
MID 50S SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS
VERY DRY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

CONDS WILL BE IMPROVING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT
EXITS. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING
MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS
SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA
SUNDAY...AS THE EC CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231848
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A FEW TOWERS HAVE BROKEN THE CAP. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING MORE-WIDESPREAD TSRA FOR NOW. PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
ARE RATHER WEAK AND SPC OUTLOOK IS ONLY FOR VERY SMALL CHC OF
SVR WIND/HAIL. NOT MUCH SHEAR - WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE
N/E. CAPES ARE HIGH IN THE CELLS THAT ARE BIG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...SO PULSE STORMS AND VERY TRANSIENT/SHORT-LIVED SVR THREAT IS
WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE CELLS
YET...WITH THE TERRAIN SEEMINGLY THE GENESIS FOR THE FIRST
CUSTOMERS OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO COVER MORE OF THE RADAR SCOPE
SHORTLY...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE THE
EVENING IS OVER. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE
AND IS PRACTICALLY TO KBFD AT 1830Z. DRY AIR BEHIND IT IS ALSO
COOLING THE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END
TO SHOWERS FOR THE NW AS IT MOVES TO THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST MESO GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF THE
SH/TSRA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POP UP
AS LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER A FEW HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES BY.
EXPECT ALMOST ALL SHOWERS TO BE TO THE S OF IPT/UNV/JST BY 00Z.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE SERN
COS/SRN TIER. BUT COVERAGE DIPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORMS DIE OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE N/W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
JUMPING ON-BOARD WITH THE NAM IS PUSHING THE DRY AIR AND SHOWERS
OFF TO THE S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUITY
BETWEEN MOST FCSTS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SHRA LINGERING IN THE
SRN TIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THAT
SLIGHT CHC POP THERE...BUT DRY IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL
TEMPER THAT FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE.
MID 50S SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS
VERY DRY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231848
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A FEW TOWERS HAVE BROKEN THE CAP. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING MORE-WIDESPREAD TSRA FOR NOW. PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
ARE RATHER WEAK AND SPC OUTLOOK IS ONLY FOR VERY SMALL CHC OF
SVR WIND/HAIL. NOT MUCH SHEAR - WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE
N/E. CAPES ARE HIGH IN THE CELLS THAT ARE BIG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...SO PULSE STORMS AND VERY TRANSIENT/SHORT-LIVED SVR THREAT IS
WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE CELLS
YET...WITH THE TERRAIN SEEMINGLY THE GENESIS FOR THE FIRST
CUSTOMERS OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO COVER MORE OF THE RADAR SCOPE
SHORTLY...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE THE
EVENING IS OVER. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE
AND IS PRACTICALLY TO KBFD AT 1830Z. DRY AIR BEHIND IT IS ALSO
COOLING THE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END
TO SHOWERS FOR THE NW AS IT MOVES TO THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST MESO GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF THE
SH/TSRA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POP UP
AS LITTLE POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE AND
BRUSHES THE NRN TIER A FEW HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES BY.
EXPECT ALMOST ALL SHOWERS TO BE TO THE S OF IPT/UNV/JST BY 00Z.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE SERN
COS/SRN TIER. BUT COVERAGE DIPS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORMS DIE OFF AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE N/W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
JUMPING ON-BOARD WITH THE NAM IS PUSHING THE DRY AIR AND SHOWERS
OFF TO THE S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUITY
BETWEEN MOST FCSTS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SHRA LINGERING IN THE
SRN TIER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THAT
SLIGHT CHC POP THERE...BUT DRY IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT DO DROP NICELY OVER THE NORTH - BUT WILL
TEMPER THAT FALL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOWER CLOUD DECK THERE.
MID 50S SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST RURAL VALLEYS.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR IS
VERY DRY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.

THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS BURNING AWAY IN THE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG THE
SRN BORDER MAY LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST. DESPITE THE 8H TEMPS AS LOW AS +10C IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...EVEN THEY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S. 80F AND MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER IS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO NMRS TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...MOVING STEADILY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OFF THE THE SE OF
SEG/AOO BY 00Z AND THROUGH LNS BY 04Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
STEADILY SE THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE THE FRONT WHICH IS ON TOP OF
KBFD AT 1845Z. BUT THE WIND PROFILE IS NOT A SET UP FOR STRONG
GUSTS UNLESS A STORM GROWS VERY TALL THIS EVENING.

LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NWRN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MANY OF THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COULD GET SOME FOG. WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR WILL WIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...BREAKING THE CLOUDS UP. VFR SHOULD BE THE WORD FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST THE NRN VALLEYS WILL DROP COLD ENOUGH
TO MAKE THE FOG HAPPEN EACH NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. PM TSRA/MVFR POSS W.
SUN-MON...SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231435
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES IN NW PA NOT BELOW FL120...SO LITTLE PRECIP FORSEEN
THERE UNTIL ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION FLARES UP ALONG THE BEST WIND
SHIFT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WHICH IS JUST CROSSING THE LAKES NOW.
ALSO...TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGS AHEAD OF THE CURVE AT THIS POINT
WITH STRONG SUNSHINE OVER THE SERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.
THUS...CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED VERY SOON - ESP ON THE
HIGHER HILLS OF THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINE WITH A BIT
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE SFC PRESSURES AT 15Z WILL
CREATE SCT SHRA IN THE SE BY 18Z. EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH
IS SEEN IN BOTH BALLOON AND MODEL SOUNDINGS TO KEEP THE CONVECTION
SHORT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY AND LLVL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE VERY LARGE CAPES THIS AFTN
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL TWEAK POPS WITH AN EYE TOWARD MORE IN
THE SE AND LESS IN THE NW FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY RISE ABOVE 90F IN MANY LOCATION IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT WHERE THE EARLY AFTN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION COOLS
THEM OFF.

PREV...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CVRG PROJECTED TO BE
GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME
STG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL BE
VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS REDUCTIONS IN TSRA. WND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NW BY TONIGHT WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN
AREAS INTO THU. MVFR CIGS SEEM PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS LATE TNGT IN
POST- FRONTAL UPSLOPE NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231435
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES IN NW PA NOT BELOW FL120...SO LITTLE PRECIP FORSEEN
THERE UNTIL ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION FLARES UP ALONG THE BEST WIND
SHIFT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WHICH IS JUST CROSSING THE LAKES NOW.
ALSO...TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGS AHEAD OF THE CURVE AT THIS POINT
WITH STRONG SUNSHINE OVER THE SERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.
THUS...CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED VERY SOON - ESP ON THE
HIGHER HILLS OF THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINE WITH A BIT
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE SFC PRESSURES AT 15Z WILL
CREATE SCT SHRA IN THE SE BY 18Z. EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH
IS SEEN IN BOTH BALLOON AND MODEL SOUNDINGS TO KEEP THE CONVECTION
SHORT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY AND LLVL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE VERY LARGE CAPES THIS AFTN
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL TWEAK POPS WITH AN EYE TOWARD MORE IN
THE SE AND LESS IN THE NW FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY RISE ABOVE 90F IN MANY LOCATION IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT WHERE THE EARLY AFTN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION COOLS
THEM OFF.

PREV...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CVRG PROJECTED TO BE
GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME
STG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL BE
VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS REDUCTIONS IN TSRA. WND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NW BY TONIGHT WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN
AREAS INTO THU. MVFR CIGS SEEM PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS LATE TNGT IN
POST- FRONTAL UPSLOPE NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
719 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/12Z...PATCHY MVFR BR/HZ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. AFTER A
QUIET START TO THE DAY...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CVRG PROJECTED TO BE GREATEST
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO
MARGINALLY SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL BE VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR- IFR VIS REDUCTIONS IN TSRA. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY
TONIGHT WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO
THU. MVFR CIGS SEEM PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS LATE TNGT IN POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
719 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/12Z...PATCHY MVFR BR/HZ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. AFTER A
QUIET START TO THE DAY...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CVRG PROJECTED TO BE GREATEST
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO
MARGINALLY SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL BE VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR- IFR VIS REDUCTIONS IN TSRA. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY
TONIGHT WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO
THU. MVFR CIGS SEEM PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS LATE TNGT IN POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230954
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
554 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/09Z...UPDATE...IR STLT/SFC OBS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOG/ST
IMPACTING TERMINALS THAN IN RECENT MORNINGS. RADAR SHOWS LINE OF
STORMS CROSSING LK ERIE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS PREV FCST
BELOW. A SECOND LINE OF SCT SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AFJ-
DUJ LINE AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE LAURELS BY 12Z.

23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230954
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
554 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/09Z...UPDATE...IR STLT/SFC OBS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOG/ST
IMPACTING TERMINALS THAN IN RECENT MORNINGS. RADAR SHOWS LINE OF
STORMS CROSSING LK ERIE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS PREV FCST
BELOW. A SECOND LINE OF SCT SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AFJ-
DUJ LINE AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE LAURELS BY 12Z.

23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RANFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RANFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARM MID LEVEL LAYER KEPT CONVECTION LARGELY AT BAY THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH
SHALLOW CUMULUS BUILDUPS ELSEWHERE. FINAL REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY ARE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHOWER EVIDENT OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. WILL END POPS BY
03Z WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO TUE MORNING...AND IT WILL BE
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE FOR SLEEPING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARM MID LEVEL LAYER KEPT CONVECTION LARGELY AT BAY THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH
SHALLOW CUMULUS BUILDUPS ELSEWHERE. FINAL REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY ARE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHOWER EVIDENT OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. WILL END POPS BY
03Z WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO TUE MORNING...AND IT WILL BE
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE FOR SLEEPING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities