Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCTP 011011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT A LOT OF FOG YET...GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

DID BACK OFF SOME ON FOG AND LOW CIGS ON 09Z TAFS.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT A LOT OF FOG YET...GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

DID BACK OFF SOME ON FOG AND LOW CIGS ON 09Z TAFS.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010209
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010209
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...ORGANIZING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF YORK
AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN VA TO
CENTRAL NJ. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MY AREA IS SANS
LIGHTNING...BUT SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUPY
AIR MASS WHICH FEATURE PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF
TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF/SHEAR
AXIS IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING...THE TAIL END OF
THIS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT INTO N CENTRAL
MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THERE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ WHICH COULD
BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT
REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND
AVAILABILITY OF 2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT REGION. SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WE APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ. TIME WILL TELL.

LAST DETAIL IS THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR LONG
TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...ORGANIZING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF YORK
AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN VA TO
CENTRAL NJ. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MY AREA IS SANS
LIGHTNING...BUT SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUPY
AIR MASS WHICH FEATURE PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF
TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF/SHEAR
AXIS IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING...THE TAIL END OF
THIS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT INTO N CENTRAL
MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THERE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ WHICH COULD
BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT
REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND
AVAILABILITY OF 2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT REGION. SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WE APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ. TIME WILL TELL.

LAST DETAIL IS THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR LONG
TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311409
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS MID/LATE MORNING. CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM...BUT SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PRECIP SHIFTS GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONS TO A MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP IN THE
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES /AT 14Z CLOUDS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...WITH BREAKS IN FAR
SE COUNTIES AND HINTS OF BREAKS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTNS/.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUNSHINE
AND A VERY MILD START WILL ALLOW THE SE TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS SUMMER...AND ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MTNS
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SE WHERE IT REMAINS RAINFREE AT 14Z. BUT SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER SUSQ THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CIGS AGAIN DOMINATING ACROSS NORTHWEST HALD
OF CWA.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311409
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS MID/LATE MORNING. CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM...BUT SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PRECIP SHIFTS GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONS TO A MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP IN THE
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES /AT 14Z CLOUDS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...WITH BREAKS IN FAR
SE COUNTIES AND HINTS OF BREAKS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTNS/.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUNSHINE
AND A VERY MILD START WILL ALLOW THE SE TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS SUMMER...AND ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MTNS
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SE WHERE IT REMAINS RAINFREE AT 14Z. BUT SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER SUSQ THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CIGS AGAIN DOMINATING ACROSS NORTHWEST HALD
OF CWA.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CIGS AT MANY SPOTS SUCH AS UNV AND AOO GOING BETWEEN SCT015
AMD BKN015 FOR EXAMPLE...AS BEEN THE CASE SINCE YESTERDAY.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CIGS AT MANY SPOTS SUCH AS UNV AND AOO GOING BETWEEN SCT015
AMD BKN015 FOR EXAMPLE...AS BEEN THE CASE SINCE YESTERDAY.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310844
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE WERE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310844
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE WERE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDTIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDTIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE
WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE
WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY COMING UP
SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN FORECAST.

CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THOUGHT THESE MAY MIX OUT TO
SCT/BKN DECK TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKING LIKE THEY/LL HANG TOUGH WITH
DECK LIKELY LIFTING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLEST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP THE MID VALLEY FROM KIPT TO
KSEG. ELSEWHERE WITH SOME SUN...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS OF 1-2
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN
EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER
PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATING A BIT OF CAPE IN PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SEEING A FEW SHOWERS POP UP ALONG THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING SOLIDIFIES THE CASE TO KEEP ISOLATED
POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY
AFTER 2-3 PM/.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO
PILE INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN
THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME
10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW VFR
LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AFTER 2-3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301021
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST
HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD
END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE
CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS
LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION.
A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOWER CLDS NOW JUST SE AND EAST OF THE OFFICE.

ANYWAY...SOME SPOTS ARE MVFR.

THUS WILL BE UPDATING THE 12Z PACKAGE FOR THIS.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM BY THIS
EVENING...NO EXPECTING REAL LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301021
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST
HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD
END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE
CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS
LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION.
A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOWER CLDS NOW JUST SE AND EAST OF THE OFFICE.

ANYWAY...SOME SPOTS ARE MVFR.

THUS WILL BE UPDATING THE 12Z PACKAGE FOR THIS.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM BY THIS
EVENING...NO EXPECTING REAL LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300927
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST
HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD
END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE
CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS
LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION.
A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED SOME OF THE TAFS ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO BACK OFF
ON MVFR CIGS.

BEEN WATCHING OBS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...AS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS NOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PA.

ANYWAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM BY SATURDAY
EVENING...NOT EXPECTING REAL LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300927
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST
HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD
END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE
CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS
LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION.
A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED SOME OF THE TAFS ABOUT AN HOUR AGO TO BACK OFF
ON MVFR CIGS.

BEEN WATCHING OBS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...AS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS NOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PA.

ANYWAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM BY SATURDAY
EVENING...NOT EXPECTING REAL LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST
HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD
END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE
CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS
LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. A
RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE HAVE
BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND OF
FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR NOTHING
TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR WHAT
WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT LOWER CLDS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. AS OF 1 AM...LOWER CLDS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
PA. THUS I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LOWER
CLDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING MAY OCCUR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS
QUICKLY RISING TO 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MID DAY. SHORT RANGE
OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND IN EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST
HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WHAT SHOULD
END UP BEING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MY WESTERN ZONES. SREF GENERATES SOME MODERATE
CAPE OVER WRN PA THAT NUDGES INTO THE LAURELS...WHILE THE GEFS IS
LESS UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND RANGE TO SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NWRN ZONES.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL FORCE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. A
RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE HAVE
BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND OF
FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR NOTHING
TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR WHAT
WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT LOWER CLDS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. AS OF 1 AM...LOWER CLDS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
PA. THUS I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LOWER
CLDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING MAY OCCUR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH INTO MY SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES WHILE LITTLE MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY BUT
WITH THE GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS CONTINUING AS THE LAST OF
THE REALLY DRY WEATHER YIELDS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT LOWER CLDS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. AS OF 1 AM...LOWER CLDS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
PA. THUS I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LOWER
CLDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING MAY OCCUR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH INTO MY SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES WHILE LITTLE MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY BUT
WITH THE GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS CONTINUING AS THE LAST OF
THE REALLY DRY WEATHER YIELDS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT LOWER CLDS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. AS OF 1 AM...LOWER CLDS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
PA. THUS I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LOWER
CLDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING MAY OCCUR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH INTO MY SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES WHILE LITTLE MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY BUT
WITH THE GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS CONTINUING AS THE LAST OF
THE REALLY DRY WEATHER YIELDS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH INTO MY SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES WHILE LITTLE MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY BUT
WITH THE GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS CONTINUING AS THE LAST OF
THE REALLY DRY WEATHER YIELDS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1147 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CIRRUS TRACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL PA. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
SATURDAY...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PA AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COMMONWEALTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...LOCAL UPSLOPE AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1147 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CIRRUS TRACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL PA. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
SATURDAY...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PA AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COMMONWEALTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...LOCAL UPSLOPE AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CIRRUS TRACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL PA. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
SATURDAY...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PA AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COMMONWEALTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...LOCAL UPSLOPE AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CIRRUS TRACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL PA. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
SATURDAY...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PA AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COMMONWEALTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...LOCAL UPSLOPE AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300002
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY CIGS WILL BE IN THE 4-5KFT
RANGE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM
WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM FOG POSS. SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300002
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY CIGS WILL BE IN THE 4-5KFT
RANGE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM
WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...EARLY AM FOG POSS. SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
631 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT PA AND A LOVELY EVENING. SFC RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD AT ~23Z. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME COULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OR LAURELS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
631 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT PA AND A LOVELY EVENING. SFC RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD AT ~23Z. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME COULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OR LAURELS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO FORM AS THE SERLY FLOW GETS MORE MOIST AND IS LIFTED
UPWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE PUT LESS FOG IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE MORE-MOIST AIR AND
HEATING OF THE DAY ON SAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO FORM AS THE SERLY FLOW GETS MORE MOIST AND IS LIFTED
UPWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE PUT LESS FOG IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE MORE-MOIST AIR AND
HEATING OF THE DAY ON SAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO FORM AS THE SERLY FLOW GETS MORE MOIST AND IS LIFTED
UPWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE PUT LESS FOG IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE MORE-MOIST AIR AND
HEATING OF THE DAY ON SAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO FORM AS THE SERLY FLOW GETS MORE MOIST AND IS LIFTED
UPWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE PUT LESS FOG IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE MORE-MOIST AIR AND
HEATING OF THE DAY ON SAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SOME U30S-MINS THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER NRN PA BUT
MORE SUNSHINE/THINNER CLOUDS ON THEIR WAY EAST FROM WRN PA. TEMPS
STRUGGLING A BIT RIGHT NOW...BUT DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTN SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL GET TO CURR FCST MAXES. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
SE WIND SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESP ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS UP NEAR
NORMAL TONIGHT. THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL STILL GET CLOSER TO 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE AND
TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN MAKE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT WORTH
THE 15 OR 20 THAT WILL BE IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF POPS PRETTY
HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C NEAR PBZ
AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO TUE...BUT ANY CONVECTION
ON SAT AFTN WOULD BE SO SPARSE THAT IT DESERVES NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. WINDS BECOME SE ON SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LVLS
WILL REALLY COME UP ON SUNDAY...HIGHER THAN HAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SOME U30S-MINS THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER NRN PA BUT
MORE SUNSHINE/THINNER CLOUDS ON THEIR WAY EAST FROM WRN PA. TEMPS
STRUGGLING A BIT RIGHT NOW...BUT DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTN SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL GET TO CURR FCST MAXES. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
SE WIND SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESP ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS UP NEAR
NORMAL TONIGHT. THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL STILL GET CLOSER TO 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE AND
TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN MAKE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT WORTH
THE 15 OR 20 THAT WILL BE IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF POPS PRETTY
HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C NEAR PBZ
AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO TUE...BUT ANY CONVECTION
ON SAT AFTN WOULD BE SO SPARSE THAT IT DESERVES NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. WINDS BECOME SE ON SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LVLS
WILL REALLY COME UP ON SUNDAY...HIGHER THAN HAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GLAKS. ONLY
SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOW THICK AND WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. DRY AIR WILL FIGHT FOG FORMATION IN ALL
BUT THE DEEPEST DARKEST VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS COULD DROP TO 40F BY 6
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY AS
THE SUN WORKS ON IT. BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL MAKE IT A
WONDERFUL LATE-SUMMER DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BACK UP TO THURS MAXES
AND EVEN ADD A FEW DEGS ON - ESP IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NICE SUNRISE...ALONG WITH A SUN DOG. OTHER THAN SOME
FOG AT AOO...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH SOME MID AND HI
CLDS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO TUE. WINDS BECOME SE ON
SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LVLS WILL REALLY COME UP ON
SUNDAY...HIGHER THAN HAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GLAKS. ONLY
SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOW THICK AND WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. DRY AIR WILL FIGHT FOG FORMATION IN ALL
BUT THE DEEPEST DARKEST VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS COULD DROP TO 40F BY 6
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY AS
THE SUN WORKS ON IT. BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL MAKE IT A
WONDERFUL LATE-SUMMER DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BACK UP TO THURS MAXES
AND EVEN ADD A FEW DEGS ON - ESP IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NICE SUNRISE...ALONG WITH A SUN DOG. OTHER THAN SOME
FOG AT AOO...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH SOME MID AND HI
CLDS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO TUE. WINDS BECOME SE ON
SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LVLS WILL REALLY COME UP ON
SUNDAY...HIGHER THAN HAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities