Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCTP 260842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF E COAST RIDGE IS
TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SAT-DERIVED PWATS NR 1.7 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AT 06Z. REGIONAL RADAR AT 06Z SHOWING SCT SHRA
DEVELOPING IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LVL VORT MAX
LIFTING NE OUT OF SOUTHERN OHIO. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY CHC OF SHRA ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
KJST/KUNV/KIPT...THE PRE-DAWN HRS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT BASED ON MCLDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE L/M60S EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SW TO NE LINE FROM
NEAR KJST TO NORTH OF KIPT. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT
CAUSE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THAT
REGION.

VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY
LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT TO EXPLICITLY
MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER ISSUANCES SHOULD
INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR 12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260602
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF E COAST RIDGE IS
TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SAT-DERIVED PWATS NR 1.7 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AT 06Z. REGIONAL RADAR AT 06Z SHOWING SCT SHRA
DEVELOPING IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LVL VORT MAX
LIFTING NE OUT OF SOUTHERN OHIO. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY CHC OF SHRA ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
KJST/KUNV/KIPT...THE PRE-DAWN HRS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT BASED ON MCLDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE L/M60S EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260602
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF E COAST RIDGE IS
TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING. SAT-DERIVED PWATS NR 1.7 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AT 06Z. REGIONAL RADAR AT 06Z SHOWING SCT SHRA
DEVELOPING IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LVL VORT MAX
LIFTING NE OUT OF SOUTHERN OHIO. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY CHC OF SHRA ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
KJST/KUNV/KIPT...THE PRE-DAWN HRS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT BASED ON MCLDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE L/M60S EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE RACED UP INTO WESTERN NY...LEAVING CENTRAL PA
VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE RACED UP INTO WESTERN NY...LEAVING CENTRAL PA
VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTANCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTANCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251947
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251652
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
...AND EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK TO THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WAS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA
INVOF KBUF ATTM.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH...WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS
AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251652
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
...AND EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK TO THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WAS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA
INVOF KBUF ATTM.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH...WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS
AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK...TO THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SO...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATE LATE
DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK...TO THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SO...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATE LATE
DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z/09Z TAFS SENT. NO CHANGES MADE. ONLY MUI HAS ANY BR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z/09Z TAFS SENT. NO CHANGES MADE. ONLY MUI HAS ANY BR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL
BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL
BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL
BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINENTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINENTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINENTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF BKN ALTO CU
ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST AREAS OF
MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A SHIELD OF ALTO
CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A THICKENING...BKN-OVC
LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND STAY
WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF BKN ALTO CU
ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST AREAS OF
MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A SHIELD OF ALTO
CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A THICKENING...BKN-OVC
LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND STAY
WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241117
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/12 TAF PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241117
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/12 TAF PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO 24/00Z TAFS FOR 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE
A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO 24/00Z TAFS FOR 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE
A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO 24/00Z TAFS FOR 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE
A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO 24/00Z TAFS FOR 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE
A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240228
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINATE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240228
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINATE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240228
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINATE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240228
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINATE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240037
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
837 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240037
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
837 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MSTR AND RELATIVLY LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232159
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MORNING FOG MAY ALSO BE A
FACTOR NEXT WEEK GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232159
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MORNING FOG MAY ALSO BE A
FACTOR NEXT WEEK GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232159
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MORNING FOG MAY ALSO BE A
FACTOR NEXT WEEK GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232159
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MORNING FOG MAY ALSO BE A
FACTOR NEXT WEEK GIVEN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASNG
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY FLAT CU IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF THIN
CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY
CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD
TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO
AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG
F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY).

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS
TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASNG
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY FLAT CU IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF THIN
CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231949
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PERFECTLY CLEAR
AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL BE A FEW...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIMITED THE MINS THERE AT 35-36F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED JUST PATCHY
FROST. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CURRENT SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN ARE RUNNING RIGHT IN
STEP WITH THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE /AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 12Z
MET/MAV NUMBERS - COMPARED TO THEIR 06Z COUNTERPARTS/. THIS
SUPPORTS MINS INDICATED ABOVE.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT
W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER
THAN SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST ANS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FLAT CU...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231654
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PERFECTLY CLEAR
AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL BE A FEW...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIMITED THE MINS THERE AT 35-36F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED JUST PATCHY
FROST. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CURRENT SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN ARE RUNNING RIGHT IN
STEP WITH THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE /AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 12Z
MET/MAV NUMBERS - COMPARED TO THEIR 06Z COUNTERPARTS/. THIS
SUPPORTS MINS INDICATED ABOVE.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT
W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER
THAN SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FLAT CU...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231654
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PERFECTLY CLEAR
AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL BE A FEW...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIMITED THE MINS THERE AT 35-36F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED JUST PATCHY
FROST. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CURRENT SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN ARE RUNNING RIGHT IN
STEP WITH THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE /AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 12Z
MET/MAV NUMBERS - COMPARED TO THEIR 06Z COUNTERPARTS/. THIS
SUPPORTS MINS INDICATED ABOVE.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT
W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER
THAN SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FLAT CU...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231654
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PERFECTLY CLEAR
AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL BE A FEW...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIMITED THE MINS THERE AT 35-36F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED JUST PATCHY
FROST. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CURRENT SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN ARE RUNNING RIGHT IN
STEP WITH THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE /AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 12Z
MET/MAV NUMBERS - COMPARED TO THEIR 06Z COUNTERPARTS/. THIS
SUPPORTS MINS INDICATED ABOVE.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT
W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER
THAN SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FLAT CU...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231654
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1254 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PERFECTLY CLEAR
AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70F IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL BE A FEW...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIMITED THE MINS THERE AT 35-36F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED JUST PATCHY
FROST. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CURRENT SFC OBS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN ARE RUNNING RIGHT IN
STEP WITH THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE /AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 12Z
MET/MAV NUMBERS - COMPARED TO THEIR 06Z COUNTERPARTS/. THIS
SUPPORTS MINS INDICATED ABOVE.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT
W/SW WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER
THAN SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FLAT CU...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY.

VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESO OBS SHOW THAT TEMPS EVEN IN THE COLDEST SPOTS UP NORTH HAVE
RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1230Z...WITH THE MERCURY RISING
THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS OF 1230Z. THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN EXPIRED AT 12Z.

IT WILL WARM UP VERY NICELY TODAY...THANKS TO FULL LATE MAY
SUNSHINE WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW
PANCAKE CU ON THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXES IN THE MID 60S UP NORTH...AND AROUND 70F THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL - AND NOT MORE
THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESO OBS SHOW THAT TEMPS EVEN IN THE COLDEST SPOTS UP NORTH HAVE
RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1230Z...WITH THE MERCURY RISING
THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS OF 1230Z. THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN EXPIRED AT 12Z.

IT WILL WARM UP VERY NICELY TODAY...THANKS TO FULL LATE MAY
SUNSHINE WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW
PANCAKE CU ON THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXES IN THE MID 60S UP NORTH...AND AROUND 70F THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL - AND NOT MORE
THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESO OBS SHOW THAT TEMPS EVEN IN THE COLDEST SPOTS UP NORTH HAVE
RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1230Z...WITH THE MERCURY RISING
THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS OF 1230Z. THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN EXPIRED AT 12Z.

IT WILL WARM UP VERY NICELY TODAY...THANKS TO FULL LATE MAY
SUNSHINE WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW
PANCAKE CU ON THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXES IN THE MID 60S UP NORTH...AND AROUND 70F THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL - AND NOT MORE
THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESO OBS SHOW THAT TEMPS EVEN IN THE COLDEST SPOTS UP NORTH HAVE
RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1230Z...WITH THE MERCURY RISING
THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS OF 1230Z. THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND
FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN EXPIRED AT 12Z.

IT WILL WARM UP VERY NICELY TODAY...THANKS TO FULL LATE MAY
SUNSHINE WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW
PANCAKE CU ON THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXES IN THE MID 60S UP NORTH...AND AROUND 70F THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL - AND NOT MORE
THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS FLUCTUATED FOR A BRIEF TIME AT A FEW SITES AS A BRIEF
MOVEMENT OF AIR STIRRED IT BACK UP. HOWEVER...IT IS BACK TO VERY
COLD IN THE NORTH. BFD IS 29F AT 5 AM...AND SOME M20S ARE SEEN IN
THE MESO OBS IN COUDERSPORT AND JOHNSONBURG. IT IS ALSO VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN BEDFORD AND NOT TOO FAR TO THE SW OF STATE
COLLEGE WHERE THE WIDE VALLEY WITH LARGE OPEN FIELDS MAKES FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AFTER THE FROSTY START...IT SHOULD WARM UP VERY NICELY AS FULL
LATE MAY SUNSHINE MIXES THINGS UP. MAXES WILL STILL END UP BELOW
NORMALS - AND NOT MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-024>028-
033-034-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS FLUCTUATED FOR A BRIEF TIME AT A FEW SITES AS A BRIEF
MOVEMENT OF AIR STIRRED IT BACK UP. HOWEVER...IT IS BACK TO VERY
COLD IN THE NORTH. BFD IS 29F AT 5 AM...AND SOME M20S ARE SEEN IN
THE MESO OBS IN COUDERSPORT AND JOHNSONBURG. IT IS ALSO VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN BEDFORD AND NOT TOO FAR TO THE SW OF STATE
COLLEGE WHERE THE WIDE VALLEY WITH LARGE OPEN FIELDS MAKES FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AFTER THE FROSTY START...IT SHOULD WARM UP VERY NICELY AS FULL
LATE MAY SUNSHINE MIXES THINGS UP. MAXES WILL STILL END UP BELOW
NORMALS - AND NOT MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-024>028-
033-034-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTC COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS FLUCTUATED FOR A BRIEF TIME AT A FEW SITES AS A BRIEF
MOVEMENT OF AIR STIRRED IT BACK UP. HOWEVER...IT IS BACK TO VERY
COLD IN THE NORTH. BFD IS 29F AT 5 AM...AND SOME M20S ARE SEEN IN
THE MESO OBS IN COUDERSPORT AND JOHNSONBURG. IT IS ALSO VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN BEDFORD AND NOT TOO FAR TO THE SW OF STATE
COLLEGE WHERE THE WIDE VALLEY WITH LARGE OPEN FIELDS MAKES FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AFTER THE FROSTY START...IT SHOULD WARM UP VERY NICELY AS FULL
LATE MAY SUNSHINE MIXES THINGS UP. MAXES WILL STILL END UP BELOW
NORMALS - AND NOT MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE S/E AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.
HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN
DIP TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CAPPED THE
MINS THERE AT 33F FOR NOW AND MENTIONED FROST...BUT HAVE STAYED
AWAY FROM A FREEZE WATCH. A SLIGHT WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAY KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE FZG. HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVY JUST YET...AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE
AND AVIOD PERHAPS CONLICTING/CONFUSING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE WINNER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT W/SW
WINDS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES/8H TEMPS RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A DOZEN OR SO DEGS MILDER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ON
MONDAY AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AT BAY AND OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE KEPT A VERY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE N AND
OVER THE POCONOS. BUT NO RAIN OUTS OR SOGGY PICNICS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS POINT. MAXES WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK LONG AS
ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS WILL BE OVER THE NW.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

THUS BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND OTHER FACTORS...DID LOWER
POPS SOME...AND EDGE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO.

OVERALL...NOT LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS AS HIGH
AS RECENT EVENTS. THUS A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...AND NOT A BAD PERIOD OF LATE SPRING WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...ENJOY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
PROVIDE A CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-024>028-
033-034-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities