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000
FXUS61 KCTP 291936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET
WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3
OR SO OF THE AREA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES.
OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF
TODAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN
TODAY ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z
TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA
RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
-2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A
SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER
BEDFORD COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE
FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST
COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND
COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET
WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3
OR SO OF THE AREA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES.
OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF
TODAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN
TODAY ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z
TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA
RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
-2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A
SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER
BEDFORD COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE
FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST
COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND
COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291756
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET
WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3
OR SO OF THE AREA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES.
OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF
TODAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN
TODAY ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA
LATE SAT...WITH A STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND
AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY 4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL
AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291756
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET
WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3
OR SO OF THE AREA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES.
OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF
TODAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN
TODAY ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA
LATE SAT...WITH A STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND
AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY 4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL
AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291425
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE. A SLIGHTLY MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING A BIT MORE LIFT AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN AS WE STAY LOCKED IN THE COOL AIR DAMMING SCENARIO.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE VERY CHILLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF APRIL...ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F IN MOST PLACES. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SHOULD THE WARM FRONT BE ABLE TO
CREEP NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR. THE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE HIGHS
COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH AND TODAY`S SFC WAVE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE MEAN LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WEAK...SO PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND STRATO CU CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALONG WITH THE
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY ON...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING
LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH A
STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY
4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE
LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS
PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AS MOIST...COOL LOW-LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES. MILDER AND MOIST AIR TOPPING THIS SHALLOW COOL LAYER
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER WAS
RESULTING IN SOME BANDED VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ON THE REGIONAL
88D MOSAIC LOOP...WITH GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE APPEARANCE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND
LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F INTO LATE THIS MORNING.

FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT ...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BLENDED
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE 12Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COMPACT AREA OF STRONGER LIFT
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER NRN PENN AND THE
ENDLESS MTNS REGION SHOULD BRING A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY...LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH LIKELY
NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE VERY CHILLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF APRIL...ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F IN MOST PLACES. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SHOULD THE WARM FRONT BE ABLE TO
CREEP NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR. THE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE HIGHS
COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH AND TODAY`S SFC WAVE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE MEAN LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WEAK...SO PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND STRATO CU CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALONG WITH THE
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY ON...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING
LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH A
STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY
4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE
LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS
PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE AT BFD...JST AND AOO AS LOW STRATOCU
IS ENHANCED BY MOIST LOW LEVEL AS A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING BETWEEN 00Z TO 04Z. ANY RAIN WILL ONLY ENHANCE
CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AS MOIST...COOL LOW-LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES. MILDER AND MOIST AIR TOPPING THIS SHALLOW COOL LAYER
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER WAS
RESULTING IN SOME BANDED VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ON THE REGIONAL
88D MOSAIC LOOP...WITH GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE APPEARANCE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND
LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F INTO LATE THIS MORNING.

FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT ...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BLENDED
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE 12Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COMPACT AREA OF STRONGER LIFT
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER NRN PENN AND THE
ENDLESS MTNS REGION SHOULD BRING A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY...LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH LIKELY
NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE VERY CHILLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF APRIL...ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F IN MOST PLACES. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SHOULD THE WARM FRONT BE ABLE TO
CREEP NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR. THE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE HIGHS
COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH AND TODAY`S SFC WAVE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE MEAN LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WEAK...SO PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND STRATO CU CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALONG WITH THE
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY ON...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING
LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH A
STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY
4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE
LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS
PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE AT BFD...JST AND AOO AS LOW STRATOCU
IS ENHANCED BY MOIST LOW LEVEL AS A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING BETWEEN 00Z TO 04Z. ANY RAIN WILL ONLY ENHANCE
CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AS MOIST...COOL LOW-LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES. MILDER AND MOIST AIR TOPPING THIS SHALLOW COOL LAYER
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER WAS
RESULTING IN SOME BANDED VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ON THE REGIONAL
88D MOSAIC LOOP...WITH GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE APPEARANCE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND
LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F INTO LATE THIS MORNING.

FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT ...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BLENDED
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE 12Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COMPACT AREA OF STRONGER LIFT
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER NRN PENN AND THE
ENDLESS MTNS REGION SHOULD BRING A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY...LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH LIKELY
NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE VERY CHILLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF APRIL...ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F IN MOST PLACES. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SHOULD THE WARM FRONT BE ABLE TO
CREEP NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR. THE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE HIGHS
COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH AND TODAY`S SFC WAVE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE MEAN LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WEAK...SO PLENTY OF
STRATUS AND STRATO CU CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALONG WITH THE
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY ON...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING
LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH A
STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY
4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE
LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS
PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP
DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD
NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT
MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FROM LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EVENING FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH VSBYS
VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND LOWER THROUGH 13Z...BEFORE IMPROVING TO
IFR...AND MVFR AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290751
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS MOIST...COOL
LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES (TOPPED BY MILDER AND
STILL MOIST SOUTH-SWRLY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND
LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A POTENT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE OVR
NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN WILL
HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FROM LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EVENING FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH VSBYS
VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND LOWER THROUGH 13Z...BEFORE IMPROVING TO
IFR...AND MVFR AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIPPLING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS MOIST...COOL
LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES (TOPPED BY MILDER AND
STILL MOIST SOUTH-SWRLY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHALLOW/MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND
LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A POTENT...MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX (120 KT AT 300 MB) MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE OVR
NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN WILL
HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FROM LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TRACKING NORTH OF LK ERIE. THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IS DWINDLING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AT 0230Z AS IT RUNS INTO
DRY AIR NEAR THE NY BORDER. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
NORTH TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING
LIFT NORTH OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE
OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE
OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN
WILL HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FROM LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290234
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1034 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TRACKING NORTH OF LK ERIE. THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IS DWINDLING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AT 0230Z AS IT RUNS INTO
DRY AIR NEAR THE NY BORDER. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
NORTH TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING
LIFT NORTH OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE
OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE
OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN
WILL HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290234
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1034 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TRACKING NORTH OF LK ERIE. THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IS DWINDLING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AT 0230Z AS IT RUNS INTO
DRY AIR NEAR THE NY BORDER. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
NORTH TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING
LIFT NORTH OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE
OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE
OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN
WILL HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290044
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TRACKING
EAST OVR LK ERIE. THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
IS DWINDLING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AT 0030Z AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR
NEAR THE NY BORDER. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING LIFT
NORTHEAST OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE
OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CAD REGIME BTWN SFC RIDGE
OVR NEW ENG AND WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN
WILL HOLD TEMPS TO ONLY ARND 50F...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
452 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 21Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING
THRU NORTHERN PA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE EASTERN GRT LKS.
EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING LIFT NORTHEAST
OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL
DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WE REMAIN COOL AIR DAMMED...SO
THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW.

HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...IN THE 50S OR
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281955
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED IN A
BAND ABOUT 120 MILES WIDE FROM THE NW MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF RAIN
MOVING INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
REMAINING BEHIND OVER THE AREA...SO THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT
DRYING REMAIN DIM.

THE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE COOL AIR
JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WE REMAIN COOL AIR DAMMED...SO
THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW.

HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...IN THE 50S OR
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN
YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT
TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281827
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED IN A
BAND ABOUT 120 MILES WIDE FROM THE NW MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF RAIN
MOVING INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
REMAINING BEHIND OVER THE AREA...SO THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT
DRYING REMAIN DIM.

THE OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE COOL AIR
JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WE REMAIN COOL AIR DAMMED...SO
THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW.

HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...IN THE 50S OR
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE
EVENING.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281433
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY
DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THROWN ON
FOR GOOD MEASURE OVER THE RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLYING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11Z UPDATE...ONSET TIMING OF STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED (11-13Z INVOF KJST AND KAOO...14-16Z KBFD TO KUNV AND
KMDT...THEN 15-18Z IN THE NE COUNTIES) AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A
BLEND OF RADAR EXTRAP...RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SOME SMALLER AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE STEADIER RAIN AND WILL
SPEED UP THE ONSET TIMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

     PREVIOUS DISC...


A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.

EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS BEGINNING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. JST IS DOWN TO IFR IN LOW STRATOCU. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING AOO BY
13Z...TO MDT...LNS AND UNV BY 14Z AND IPT AND BFD BY 15Z. THE LOW
STRATO CU SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
 AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED. MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281106
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11Z UPDATE...ONSET TIMING OF STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED (11-13Z INVOF KJST AND KAOO...14-16Z KBFD TO KUNV AND
KMDT...THEN 15-18Z IN THE NE COUNTIES) AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A
BLEND OF RADAR EXTRAP...RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SOME SMALLER AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE STEADIER RAIN AND WILL
SPEED UP THE ONSET TIMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

...PREVIOUS DISC...


A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.

EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281106
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11Z UPDATE...ONSET TIMING OF STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED (11-13Z INVOF KJST AND KAOO...14-16Z KBFD TO KUNV AND
KMDT...THEN 15-18Z IN THE NE COUNTIES) AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A
BLEND OF RADAR EXTRAP...RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SOME SMALLER AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE STEADIER RAIN AND WILL
SPEED UP THE ONSET TIMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

...PREVIOUS DISC...


A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.

EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280932
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.

EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280753
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL
BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY.
RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPING /DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE/.

SOME PATCHY -DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH
VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z.

THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT WIND AND DRY AIR
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS...WHILE M/U40S WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND
BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WITH PERIODS OF COLD RAIN
DEVELOPING TODAY.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL
BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY.
RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPING /DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE/.

SOME PATCHY -DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH
VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z.

THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT WIND AND DRY AIR
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS...WHILE M/U40S WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND
BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WITH PERIODS OF COLD RAIN
DEVELOPING TODAY.

BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280251
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS IS CRESTING OVR CENTRAL
PA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO ALL BUT THE S TIER AS
OF 0230Z. HOWEVER...CIRRUS SHIELD ALREADY OVERSPREADING WESTERN
PA ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL PA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF SFC WAVE RIDING UP
THE OHIO VALLEY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE S TIER COUNTIES...WHERE
SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ARND DAWN. SOME
PATCHY -DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES
CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z.

MCLEAR SKIES...LGT WIND AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHILE M/U40S MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF
COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA
GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z OPER AND EARLIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...FELT COMPELLED
TO RAISE POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF
INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THU EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280047
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
847 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS IS CRESTING OVR CENTRAL
PA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO ALL BUT THE S TIER AS
OF 00Z. HOWEVER...CIRRUS SHIELD ALREADY ENCROACHING ON WESTERN PA
ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL PA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF SFC WAVE RIDING UP THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE S TIER COUNTIES...WHERE
SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ARND DAWN. SOME
PATCHY DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC
MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO
100 PCT AFTER 06Z.

MCLEAR SKIES...LGT WIND AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE L30S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHILE M40S MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF
COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA
GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.

BASED ON 18Z OPER AND EARLIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...FELT COMPELLED
TO RAISE POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF
INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THU EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE OVER THE NORTH THERE IS
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. THIS EAST-WEST BAND OF CLOUDS MIGHT MELT
AWAY A BIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY DZ IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES UNTIL 22Z...AFTER WHICH NR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRYING IN THE SFC-2KM LAYER. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD STAY DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPS IN THE
40S...IT WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF
COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA
GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271954
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE OVER THE NORTH THERE IS
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. THIS EAST-WEST BAND OF CLOUDS MIGHT MELT
AWAY A BIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THERE ARE SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE UNDER THE THICKEST
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE SHOULD STAY
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPS IN THE
40S...IT WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF
COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA
GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.

THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271823
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE OVER THE NORTH THERE IS
NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. THIS EAST-WEST BAND OF CLOUDS MIGHT MELT
AWAY A BIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THERE ARE SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE UNDER THE THICKEST
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE SHOULD STAY
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPS IN THE
40S...IT WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF
COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA
GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY
WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1144 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CUT IN HALF CLOUD-COVER-WISE WITH CLEAR
SKIES FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY
CLOUDY...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FULTON COUNTY
EASTWARD.

SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS COULD HANG PRETTY TOUGH OVER
THE SOUTH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS RACING EAST AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CONDITIONS BY FAR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE OOZES DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE CANADIAN HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOWEST PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENT DRY/COOL AIRMASS
WILL SINK INTO PENN TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NE...TO SLIGHTLY OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS JUST AS CHILLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHEN LOWS IN
THE L-M 30S WILL BE COMMON. THE RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY
WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR CONDITIONS
JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271422
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CUT IN HALF CLOUD-COVER-WISE WITH CLEAR
SKIES FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY
CLOUDY...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FULTON COUNTY
EASTWARD.

SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS COULD HANG PRETTY TOUGH OVER
THE SOUTH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS RACING EAST AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CONDITIONS BY FAR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE OOZES DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE CANADIAN HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOWEST PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENT DRY/COOL AIRMASS
WILL SINK INTO PENN TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NE...TO SLIGHTLY OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS JUST AS CHILLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHEN LOWS IN
THE L-M 30S WILL BE COMMON. THE RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY
WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIKELY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271422
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CUT IN HALF CLOUD-COVER-WISE WITH CLEAR
SKIES FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY
CLOUDY...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FULTON COUNTY
EASTWARD.

SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS COULD HANG PRETTY TOUGH OVER
THE SOUTH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS RACING EAST AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CONDITIONS BY FAR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE OOZES DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE CANADIAN HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOWEST PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENT DRY/COOL AIRMASS
WILL SINK INTO PENN TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NE...TO SLIGHTLY OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS JUST AS CHILLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHEN LOWS IN
THE L-M 30S WILL BE COMMON. THE RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY
WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIKELY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270904
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
504 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW...LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS WAS COMBINING WITH
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND AN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS TO CREATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATOCU. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BLOWING
NORTHEAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S...WAS TOPPING AN OVC LAYER OF THICK
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PENN
TURNPIKE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT
MOST.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE MAY NOT DIP
BELOW 50F THANKS TO THICKER/LAYER CLOUD COVER.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THIS MORNING /AND LIKELY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR AT VARIOUS GRID POINTS ACROSS NRN PENN AND SRN NEW
YORK STATE INDICATES DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DISSOLVE
THE STRATUS OR PUSH IT SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.

TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS /AFTER THE
BREAKUP OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS/. A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD TRANSITION INTO PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOWEST PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENT DRY/COOL AIRMASS
WILL SINK INTO PENN TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NE...TO SLIGHTLY OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS JUST AS CHILLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHEN LOWS IN
THE L-M 30S WILL BE COMMON. THE RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY
WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIKELY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270749
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHALLOW...LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS WAS COMBINING WITH
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND AN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS TO CREATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATOCU. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BLOWING
NORTHEAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S...WAS TOPPING A BKN-OVC LAYER OF HIGH-
BASED STRATO CU.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THIS MORNING /AND LIKELY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR AT VARIOUS GRID POINTS ACROSS NRN PENN AND SRN NEW
YORK STATE INDICATES DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DISSOLVE
THE STRATUS OR PUSH IT SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE MAY NOT DIP
BELOW 50F THANKS TO THICKER/LAYER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS /AFTER THE
BREAKUP OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS/. A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD TRANSITION INTO PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MID TO LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIKELY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHALLOW...LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS WAS COMBINING WITH
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND AN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS TO CREATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATOCU. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BLOWING
NORTHEAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S...WAS TOPPING A BKN-OVC LAYER OF HIGH-
BASED STRATO CU.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THIS MORNING /AND LIKELY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR AT VARIOUS GRID POINTS ACROSS NRN PENN AND SRN NEW
YORK STATE INDICATES DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DISSOLVE
THE STRATUS OR PUSH IT SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE MAY NOT DIP
BELOW 50F THANKS TO THICKER/LAYER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS /AFTER THE
BREAKUP OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS/. A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD TRANSITION INTO PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MID TO LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT THAT INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTN IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAT ACROSS SRN PA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT GOOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
SRN HALF TO SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA OVERNIGHT. LOWER /IFR/ CIGS
IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL HANG TOUGH OVER NW PA AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE STATE TOMORROW RETURNING ALL
SITES TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHALLOW...LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS WAS COMBINING WITH
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND AN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS TO CREATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATOCU. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BLOWING
NORTHEAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S...WAS TOPPING A BKN-OVC LAYER OF HIGH-
BASED STRATO CU.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THIS MORNING /AND LIKELY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR AT VARIOUS GRID POINTS ACROSS NRN PENN AND SRN NEW
YORK STATE INDICATES DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DISSOLVE
THE STRATUS OR PUSH IT SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE MAY NOT DIP
BELOW 50F THANKS TO THICKER/LAYER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS /AFTER THE
BREAKUP OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS/. A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD TRANSITION INTO PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MID TO LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT THAT INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTN IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAT ACROSS SRN PA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT GOOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
SRN HALF TO SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA OVERNIGHT. LOWER /IFR/ CIGS
IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL HANG TOUGH OVER NW PA AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE STATE TOMORROW RETURNING ALL
SITES TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1104 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF LINGERING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH.

FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ENDING BY
ARND 01Z. STRATUS ACROSS THE N MTNS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THEN BREAK UP AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN PT-MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE WITH MAX TEMPS
BTWN 60-65F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE
TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYS TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT THAT INITATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTN IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAT ACROSS SRN PA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AS A THUNDERTORM
COMPLEX MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT GOOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
SRN HALF TO SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA OVERNIGHT. LOWER /IFR/ CIGS
IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL HANG TOUGH OVER NW PA AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE STATE TOMORROW RETURNING ALL
SITES TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270302
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR MOSAIC AT 03Z SHOWS LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS CDFRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. STRATUS ACROSS THE N MTNS SHOULD BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH...UPSTREAM SATL
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS THRU DAWN AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN PT-MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE WITH MAX TEMPS
BTWN 60-65F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE
TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYS TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS
THROUGH 00Z.

PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF LINGERING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH.

FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ENDING BY
ARND 01Z. STRATUS ACROSS THE N MTNS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THEN BREAK UP AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN PT-MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE WITH MAX TEMPS
BTWN 60-65F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE
TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYS TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS
THROUGH 00Z.

PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262350
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
750 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE 23Z SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATING
DCAPES NR 1000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF AN ATMOS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WGUSTS UNDER ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ENDING BY
ARND 01Z. STRATUS ACROSS THE N MTNS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THEN BREAK UP AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN PT-MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE WITH MAX TEMPS
BTWN 60-65F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE
TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRYS TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS
THROUGH 00Z.

PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





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