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000
FXUS61 KCTP 152339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NOSE OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY
LLJ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NRN PENN. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE THE 15Z SREF AND 12/18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE
BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW 3-4 TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS NRN PENN BY
15Z MONDAY. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 152339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NOSE OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY
LLJ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NRN PENN. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE THE 15Z SREF AND 12/18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE
BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW 3-4 TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS NRN PENN BY
15Z MONDAY. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 151958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 151825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL BE SENDING OUT A NEW PACKAGE HERE SHORTLY.
LAST OF THE FOG IN THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF
NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW.

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING THE TAFS AGAIN BY 1540Z...LAST OF THE FOG IN
THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 151455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL BE SENDING OUT A NEW PACKAGE HERE SHORTLY.
LAST OF THE FOG IN THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF
NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW.

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING THE TAFS AGAIN BY 1540Z...LAST OF THE FOG IN
THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 151144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 150842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
ESPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 150842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
ESPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 150605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER ALONG THE NY BORDER ALONG THE RT 6 CORRIDOR WHERE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MEANDER SOUTH AND NORTH.

LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTH
OF THE STRATUS...LATEST MESONET READINGS HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOWER
40S ON THEIR WAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO FROST ADVISORY IS
STILL WARRANTED DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE STRATUS TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND THIN CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MINS FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE
USUAL PATCHY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE BRIEFLY/LOCALLY
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 150605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER ALONG THE NY BORDER ALONG THE RT 6 CORRIDOR WHERE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MEANDER SOUTH AND NORTH.

LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTH
OF THE STRATUS...LATEST MESONET READINGS HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOWER
40S ON THEIR WAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO FROST ADVISORY IS
STILL WARRANTED DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE STRATUS TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND THIN CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MINS FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE
USUAL PATCHY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE BRIEFLY/LOCALLY
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 150550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRATUS SLIDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR CIGS AT
IPT...WHICH SHOULD VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 150550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRATUS SLIDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR CIGS AT
IPT...WHICH SHOULD VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 150356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 150356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 150055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 150055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 142327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 142327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 142150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO L
ONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 142150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO L
ONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 141951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 141951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 141901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 141901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 141510
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1110 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL BUT THE TINIEST PORTION OF THE EARLIER LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EVAPORATED...BUT A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE
MOISTURE RE-APPEAR AS CUMULUS AS THE RESULTING SUNSHINE SELF-
DESTRUCTED. NEVERTHELESS...ALL IS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLY-NORMAL DAY. FALL IS IN THE AIR.
A TREE OR TWO HINTING AT SOME COLOR. EVEN SAW A WOOLY WORM THE
OTHER DAY NEXT TO MY CRYSTAL BALL...WEATHER ROCK...DICE...EIGHT-
BALL AND ALMANAC. NOT ONE OF THEM SAID WHAT THE PERCENTAGE OF SKY
COVER WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL CLEARING OF THE CU FIELD TONIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY TWO
AREAS OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE INTO THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. THE ONE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE INCHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE OTHER NOSING INTO THE SC MTNS LATER TONIGHT.
NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY
MAKES THE USUALY HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WHICH WOULD
INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG.

HAVE YET TO DECIDE TO ADD ANY MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST INTO
THE COLDEST AREAS JUST YET...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS. MINS
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
CLOUD COVER.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
LATE ON MONDAY...SPREADING THICK CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA.
CONTINUED TO SHAVE POPS OFF FROM THE DAYLIGHT HRS IN THE NW...AND
WILL LEAVE OTHER PLACES COMPLETELY DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE MON NIGHT. HIGH PROB FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH THE MAIN WAVE...THEN WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER
POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVEMNT HAS ALLOWED EVERY AIR FIELD TO RISE ABOVE IFR. THE
DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO BFD AND THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
IN THE MORE-CLEAR AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
AREA VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 141510
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1110 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL BUT THE TINIEST PORTION OF THE EARLIER LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EVAPORATED...BUT A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE
MOISTURE RE-APPEAR AS CUMULUS AS THE RESULTING SUNSHINE SELF-
DESTRUCTED. NEVERTHELESS...ALL IS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLY-NORMAL DAY. FALL IS IN THE AIR.
A TREE OR TWO HINTING AT SOME COLOR. EVEN SAW A WOOLY WORM THE
OTHER DAY NEXT TO MY CRYSTAL BALL...WEATHER ROCK...DICE...EIGHT-
BALL AND ALMANAC. NOT ONE OF THEM SAID WHAT THE PERCENTAGE OF SKY
COVER WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL CLEARING OF THE CU FIELD TONIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY TWO
AREAS OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE INTO THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. THE ONE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE INCHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE OTHER NOSING INTO THE SC MTNS LATER TONIGHT.
NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY
MAKES THE USUALY HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WHICH WOULD
INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG.

HAVE YET TO DECIDE TO ADD ANY MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST INTO
THE COLDEST AREAS JUST YET...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS. MINS
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
CLOUD COVER.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
LATE ON MONDAY...SPREADING THICK CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA.
CONTINUED TO SHAVE POPS OFF FROM THE DAYLIGHT HRS IN THE NW...AND
WILL LEAVE OTHER PLACES COMPLETELY DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE MON NIGHT. HIGH PROB FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH THE MAIN WAVE...THEN WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER
POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVEMNT HAS ALLOWED EVERY AIR FIELD TO RISE ABOVE IFR. THE
DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO BFD AND THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
IN THE MORE-CLEAR AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
AREA VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 141225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS SLIDING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND MAY HOLD HEATING DOWN
A BIT. BUT THE MIXING SHOULD WORK ON THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT
THE 3-4KFT DECK WILL BE TOUGHER TO THIN OUT.

EARLIER ON THE AFD...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KJST AND KFIG IN LIFR WITH KBFD CURRENTLY AT MVFR. THE IFR SHOULD
LIFT AND SLOWLY BECOME MVFR THIS MORNING...BUT THEY MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA IS UNDER A 3-5KFT DECK. OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
FROM STRATO CU/PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLY MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TAF SITES. THE FAIR AND MILD
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 141225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS SLIDING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND MAY HOLD HEATING DOWN
A BIT. BUT THE MIXING SHOULD WORK ON THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT
THE 3-4KFT DECK WILL BE TOUGHER TO THIN OUT.

EARLIER ON THE AFD...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KJST AND KFIG IN LIFR WITH KBFD CURRENTLY AT MVFR. THE IFR SHOULD
LIFT AND SLOWLY BECOME MVFR THIS MORNING...BUT THEY MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA IS UNDER A 3-5KFT DECK. OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
FROM STRATO CU/PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLY MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TAF SITES. THE FAIR AND MILD
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 141049
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A LONG STRETCH
OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY
TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. JST
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS. JST HAS GONE LIFR WITH BFD CURRENTLY
AT MVFR...THOUGH IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. UNV HAS PATCHY
FOG THAT COULD BUILD OVER THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...THOUGH
GENERALLY IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM STRATO CU/PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL
BE POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TAF SITES.
THE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
AND THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 141049
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A LONG STRETCH
OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY
TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. JST
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS. JST HAS GONE LIFR WITH BFD CURRENTLY
AT MVFR...THOUGH IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. UNV HAS PATCHY
FOG THAT COULD BUILD OVER THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z...THOUGH
GENERALLY IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM STRATO CU/PATCHY FOG/MIST WILL
BE POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TAF SITES.
THE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
AND THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 140857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A LONG STRETCH
OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY
TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. UNV
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...WHERE BFD SHOULD GO MVFR AT ANY
TIME...AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 08Z. UNV/S STRATOCU IS UPPER LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP ANY OTHER LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER OTHER AREAS OF MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY FROM AREAS OF
FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JST...AOO AND IPT.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. FAIR...MILD
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 140857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A LONG STRETCH
OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY
TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS TRAPPING LAKE
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AND WILL KEEP LOCAL SCT-BKN SKY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SLACKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW MIXING AND DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS BY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU BY 12Z MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING...
AND SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO COLLABORATE POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES
FOR THESE AREAS. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA...
SHAVED BACK POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND CLE. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. UNV
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...WHERE BFD SHOULD GO MVFR AT ANY
TIME...AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 08Z. UNV/S STRATOCU IS UPPER LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP ANY OTHER LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER OTHER AREAS OF MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY FROM AREAS OF
FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JST...AOO AND IPT.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. FAIR...MILD
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 140648
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS COVERS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AS LAKE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS WELL.

TEMPS ALREADY WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MANY SPOTS. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. UNV
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...WHERE BFD SHOULD GO MVFR AT ANY
TIME...AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 08Z. UNV/S STRATOCU IS UPPER LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP ANY OTHER LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER OTHER AREAS OF MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY FROM AREAS OF
FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JST...AOO AND IPT.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. FAIR...MILD
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 140648
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS COVERS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AS LAKE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS WELL.

TEMPS ALREADY WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MANY SPOTS. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENTLY VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. UNV
AND BFD ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...WHERE BFD SHOULD GO MVFR AT ANY
TIME...AND POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 08Z. UNV/S STRATOCU IS UPPER LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP ANY OTHER LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER OTHER AREAS OF MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY FROM AREAS OF
FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JST...AOO AND IPT.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. FAIR...MILD
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 140555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCT-BKN LAKE STRATUS COVERS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AS LAKE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS WELL.

TEMPS ALREADY WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S IN MANY SPOTS. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN...AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
FROM AREAS OF FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS
AFTERNON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE NW
PLATEAU...KBFD.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 140237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF
NORTHWESTERN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
/TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER
10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE
IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN...AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
FROM AREAS OF FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS
AFTERNON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE NW
PLATEAU...KBFD.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 140237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF
NORTHWESTERN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
/TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER
10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE
IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN...AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
FROM AREAS OF FOG FORMING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS
AFTERNON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ACROSS THE NW
PLATEAU...KBFD.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED - THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 140119 AAA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF
NORTHWESTERN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
/TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER
10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE
IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. EXPECT
RIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW LATER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS BACK INTO BFD AND PSBLKJST...ELSEWHERE
REMAINING VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN TO DAY AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD
FROPA...FOG FORMATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 140119 AAA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF
NORTHWESTERN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
/TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER
10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE
IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. EXPECT
RIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW LATER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS BACK INTO BFD AND PSBLKJST...ELSEWHERE
REMAINING VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN TO DAY AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD
FROPA...FOG FORMATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 140116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
916 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
/TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER
10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE
IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. EXPECT
RIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW LATER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS BACK INTO BFD AND PSBLKJST...ELSEWHERE
REMAINING VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN TO DAY AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD
FROPA...FOG FORMATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 140116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
916 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING ALL BUT THE MTNS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING...LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
/TRAPPED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/ DRIFTING SE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.../AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS WILL LESSEN THE NORMAL NORTH/SOUTH MIN TEMP GRADIENT TO UNDER
10 DEG F. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AROUND 40F...AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TWD DAYBREAK...ESP WHERE
IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY /MAINLY SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. EXPECT
RIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW LATER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS BACK INTO BFD AND PSBLKJST...ELSEWHERE
REMAINING VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN TO DAY AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD
FROPA...FOG FORMATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 132358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVOCATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON A
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED...
FLAT STRATOCU EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 8 KTS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY
AS THE LLVL PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER GLACES REGION.

TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE COLD SPOTS
OF THE NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.

A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY
/SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. EXPECT
RIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW LATER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS BACK INTO BFD AND PSBLKJST...ELSEWHERE
REMAINING VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN TO DAY AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD
FROPA...FOG FORMATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 132358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVOCATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON A
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED...
FLAT STRATOCU EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 8 KTS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY
AS THE LLVL PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER GLACES REGION.

TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE COLD SPOTS
OF THE NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.

A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY
/SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. EXPECT
RIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW LATER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS BACK INTO BFD AND PSBLKJST...ELSEWHERE
REMAINING VFR.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN TO DAY AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD
FROPA...FOG FORMATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 132245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON A
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED...
FLAT STRATOCU EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 8 KTS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY
AS THE LLVL PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER GLAKES REGION.

TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE COLD SPOTS
OF THE NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.

A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY
/SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 132245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON A
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED...
FLAT STRATOCU EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 8 KTS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY
AS THE LLVL PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER GLAKES REGION.

TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE COLD SPOTS
OF THE NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.

A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT NICELY
/SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 131950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRYING OCCURRING AND CLOUDS ALREADY BREAKING UP NICELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A FEW PEEKS OF SUN JUST NOW OUT THE
WINDOW...RIGHT ON TIME. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND
SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET OVER THE EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FLOW DOES FAVOR CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NRN
TIER AND THE LAURELS. BUT THE AIR IS FAIRLY DRY. HAVE GONE RATHER
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD EASILY BE
MORE-CLEAR - ESP IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. THE AURORA
BOREALIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE VISIBLE PRETTY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT...SO
THE SKY WATCHERS WILL BE ROOTING FOR A LESS-CLOUDY SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THE 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY
DISMAL FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. MINS WILL BE COLDER
THAN NORMAL TONIGHT WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND
DRY AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHLANDS. WILL HOLD EVERYONE >=40F FOR NOW DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT
NICELY /SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 131950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRYING OCCURRING AND CLOUDS ALREADY BREAKING UP NICELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A FEW PEEKS OF SUN JUST NOW OUT THE
WINDOW...RIGHT ON TIME. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND
SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET OVER THE EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FLOW DOES FAVOR CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NRN
TIER AND THE LAURELS. BUT THE AIR IS FAIRLY DRY. HAVE GONE RATHER
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD EASILY BE
MORE-CLEAR - ESP IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. THE AURORA
BOREALIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE VISIBLE PRETTY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT...SO
THE SKY WATCHERS WILL BE ROOTING FOR A LESS-CLOUDY SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THE 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY
DISMAL FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. MINS WILL BE COLDER
THAN NORMAL TONIGHT WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND
DRY AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHLANDS. WILL HOLD EVERYONE >=40F FOR NOW DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT
NICELY /SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MON
NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH....THOUGH A SHOWER MAY SNEAK INTO NW
MTNS LATE MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PROB FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON
EVE WITH WAVE...THEN WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY
LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 131901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRYING OCCURRING AND CLOUDS ALREADY BREAKING UP NICELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A FEW PEEKS OF SUN JUST NOW OUT THE
WINDOW...RIGHT ON TIME. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND
SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET OVER THE EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FLOW DOES FAVOR CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NRN
TIER AND THE LAURELS. BUT THE AIR IS FAIRLY DRY. HAVE GONE RATHER
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD EASILY BE
MORE-CLEAR - ESP IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. THE AURORA
BOREALIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE VISIBLE PRETTY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT...SO
THE SKY WATCHERS WILL BE ROOTING FOR A LESS-CLOUDY SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THE 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY
DISMAL FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. MINS WILL BE COLDER
THAN NORMAL TONIGHT WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND
DRY AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHLANDS. WILL HOLD EVERYONE >=40F FOR NOW DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT
NICELY /SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 131901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO A
LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRYING OCCURRING AND CLOUDS ALREADY BREAKING UP NICELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A FEW PEEKS OF SUN JUST NOW OUT THE
WINDOW...RIGHT ON TIME. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND
SKIES WILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET OVER THE EAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FLOW DOES FAVOR CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NRN
TIER AND THE LAURELS. BUT THE AIR IS FAIRLY DRY. HAVE GONE RATHER
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD EASILY BE
MORE-CLEAR - ESP IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. THE AURORA
BOREALIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE VISIBLE PRETTY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT...SO
THE SKY WATCHERS WILL BE ROOTING FOR A LESS-CLOUDY SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THE 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY
DISMAL FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. MINS WILL BE COLDER
THAN NORMAL TONIGHT WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND
DRY AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHLANDS. WILL HOLD EVERYONE >=40F FOR NOW DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESP WHERE IT DOES CLEAR OUT
NICELY /SOUTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO THE
EARLY CLOUDS BEING DISSIPATED DESPITE THE EVER-SHORTENING SUN
TIME AND LOWERING SUN-ANGLE. THE TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S
IN MOST PLACE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SE. SOME CLOUDS MAY
SLIDE BACK INTO THE FAR NW WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 131503
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE STARTING LATE TODAY AND
LEAD TO A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A SYSTEM SIMILAR
TO TODAY WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND
WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIMING ON BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH IS VERY
CONSISTENT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN KEEPING TEMPS COOL VS FCST CURVE AND
WILL ADJUST SAID CURVE SLIGHTLY FLATTER. SOME SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER WRN PA SHOULD START TO OPEN UP SOME AND BECOME LARGER
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE UPSLOPE MAY KEEP
THE WESTERN RIDGES MORE CLOUDY - BUT STILL WITH BREAKS - INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CLEARING THEN TAKES OVER AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COOL DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW NORMAL...AND WINDS GO LIGHT.
THUS...TEMPS COULD DIP TO 40F IN THE NRN MTS TONIGHT. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 131503
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE STARTING LATE TODAY AND
LEAD TO A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A SYSTEM SIMILAR
TO TODAY WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND
WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TIMING ON BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH IS VERY
CONSISTENT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN KEEPING TEMPS COOL VS FCST CURVE AND
WILL ADJUST SAID CURVE SLIGHTLY FLATTER. SOME SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER WRN PA SHOULD START TO OPEN UP SOME AND BECOME LARGER
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE UPSLOPE MAY KEEP
THE WESTERN RIDGES MORE CLOUDY - BUT STILL WITH BREAKS - INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CLEARING THEN TAKES OVER AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
COOL DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW NORMAL...AND WINDS GO LIGHT.
THUS...TEMPS COULD DIP TO 40F IN THE NRN MTS TONIGHT. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO END OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND INVERTED
TROUGH HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BFD VISBY IMPROVING ALREADY
AND THE CIG SHOULD FOLLOW SOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTN THERE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY. JST WILL ALSO IMPROVE IN AN HOUR...BUT TH UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE RIDGES SURROUNDING THE
AIRFIELD FOR THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT WILL PROGRESS FROM W-E THROUGH
20Z...AND VFR SHOULD RULE AT ALL BUT THE WRN TERMINALS AFTER THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 131245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A PERSISTENT AND STRONG
MID- TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. SUBSEQUENT
WAVES SHOULD KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
830 AM UPDATE...
RISING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
RADAR TRENDS UNMISTAKEABLE. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE AND PERHAPS
THE END OF THE RAIN SEEMS TO BE WITH THE STRIPE OF RADAR RETURNS
RUNNING PAST KHLG AND KJHW AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP TIMING OF
MORNING ENDING IN WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...AND JUST A
LINGERING SHOWER IN THE FAR NW INTO NOON. BUT THE CENTRAL COS
SHOULD SEE THINGS DRY UP BY 1 PM AND ALL SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA BY 3 PM. CLOUDS MIGHT TAKE A BIT TO BREAK UP - UPSTREAM
LOW CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AND SUBSIDENCE NOT TOO STRONG
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN.

PREV...
RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN
AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A
NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A
GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS
THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. IFR HAS SPREAD TO BFD...JST AND AOO WITH
MVFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT LNS...WHERE THAT SHOULD GO TO
MVFR SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 131245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A PERSISTENT AND STRONG
MID- TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. SUBSEQUENT
WAVES SHOULD KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
830 AM UPDATE...
RISING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
RADAR TRENDS UNMISTAKEABLE. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE AND PERHAPS
THE END OF THE RAIN SEEMS TO BE WITH THE STRIPE OF RADAR RETURNS
RUNNING PAST KHLG AND KJHW AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP TIMING OF
MORNING ENDING IN WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...AND JUST A
LINGERING SHOWER IN THE FAR NW INTO NOON. BUT THE CENTRAL COS
SHOULD SEE THINGS DRY UP BY 1 PM AND ALL SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA BY 3 PM. CLOUDS MIGHT TAKE A BIT TO BREAK UP - UPSTREAM
LOW CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AND SUBSIDENCE NOT TOO STRONG
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN.

PREV...
RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN
AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A
NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A
GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS
THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. IFR HAS SPREAD TO BFD...JST AND AOO WITH
MVFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT LNS...WHERE THAT SHOULD GO TO
MVFR SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 131153
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN
AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A
NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A
GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS
THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. IFR HAS SPREAD TO BFD...JST AND AOO WITH
MVFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT LNS...WHERE THAT SHOULD GO TO
MVFR SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 131153
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN
AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A
NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A
GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS
THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. IFR HAS SPREAD TO BFD...JST AND AOO WITH
MVFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT LNS...WHERE THAT SHOULD GO TO
MVFR SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 131048
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
648 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN
AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A
NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A
GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS
THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 131048
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
648 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BLOSSOMING RAIN
AREAS...LIGHT RAINFALL...OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE LAKES. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS. A
NOSE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PA...WEST IF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST IS MAINTAINING A
GOOD OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY FOR THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THIS AND INCREASE THE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA CONTINUING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AS
THE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES THIS MORNING THEN SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 130849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TO THE WEST. MOST OF THE RAIN IS WIDELY
SCATTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE AND
MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

THESE WEAK RAIN AREAS ARE SOMEWHAT RECOGNIZED BY THE HRRR. MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM OVER
MOST OF WESTERN PA. INCREASED POPS OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND
ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THE DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL RAIN IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE RAIN BEFORE 10
AM THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANCE RAIN IN MORE EASTERN AREAS. THOUGH A
FEW OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA GETTING MORE ORGANIZED AS THE
SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
PA THIS MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 130849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TO THE WEST. MOST OF THE RAIN IS WIDELY
SCATTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE AND
MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

THESE WEAK RAIN AREAS ARE SOMEWHAT RECOGNIZED BY THE HRRR. MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM OVER
MOST OF WESTERN PA. INCREASED POPS OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND
ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THE DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL RAIN IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE RAIN BEFORE 10
AM THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANCE RAIN IN MORE EASTERN AREAS. THOUGH A
FEW OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

ALL MODELS SHOW THE RAIN AREA GETTING MORE ORGANIZED AS THE
SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES. RAIN SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
PA THIS MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING EASTERN AREAS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE FAST MOVING. THE SREF SHOWS LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE ORGANIZED RAIN
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 2 PM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
ORDER OF HOURS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

COOL DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE BELOW
NORMAL. A DRY DAY AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY.

A ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHWEST PA MONDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES AND CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY. TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE RAIN IS
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS SHOW
BELOW NORMAL 850 HPA AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES AT THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANY WEAK RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVES IN THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SURGE SHOULD DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS RAINFALL LIGHT...RELATIVELY DRY
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 130735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN RAPIDLY IN
THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE OVER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 6 AM. AND SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF FAVOR THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
MAINLY AFTER 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FAST MOVING AND STRONG SHORT-WAVE SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY BEFORE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT TO THE EAST. EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SREF IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND BY ABOUT 3 PM IN THE EAST. POPS
CRASH AFTER 18Z IN THE EAST.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END WEST TO EAST AND THERE COULD BE PEAKS OF
SUN IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
THE RAP FAVORS HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SREF IS A
SPLIT DECISION WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IN THE SOUTH AND
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 130735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT WAVES SHOULD
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...SO IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
DRY. SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY NEAR MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN RAPIDLY IN
THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE OVER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 6 AM. AND SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF FAVOR THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
MAINLY AFTER 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FAST MOVING AND STRONG SHORT-WAVE SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY BEFORE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT TO THE EAST. EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SREF IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND BY ABOUT 3 PM IN THE EAST. POPS
CRASH AFTER 18Z IN THE EAST.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END WEST TO EAST AND THERE COULD BE PEAKS OF
SUN IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
THE RAP FAVORS HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SREF IS A
SPLIT DECISION WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IN THE SOUTH AND
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 130731
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN RAPIDLY IN
THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE OVER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 6 AM. AND SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF FAVOR THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
MAINLY AFTER 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FAST MOVING AND STRONG SHORT-WAVE SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY BEFORE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT TO THE EAST. EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SREF IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND BY ABOUT 3 PM IN THE EAST. POPS
CRASH AFTER 18Z IN THE EAST.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END WEST TO EAST AND THERE COULD BE PEAKS OF
SUN IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
THE RAP FAVORS HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SREF IS A
SPLIT DECISION WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IN THE SOUTH AND
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 130731
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN RAPIDLY IN
THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE OVER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 6 AM. AND SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF FAVOR THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
MAINLY AFTER 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FAST MOVING AND STRONG SHORT-WAVE SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY BEFORE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT TO THE EAST. EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SREF IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND BY ABOUT 3 PM IN THE EAST. POPS
CRASH AFTER 18Z IN THE EAST.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END WEST TO EAST AND THERE COULD BE PEAKS OF
SUN IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
THE RAP FAVORS HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SREF IS A
SPLIT DECISION WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IN THE SOUTH AND
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING ON THE INCOMING RAIN IS THE BIG AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. A SMALL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES...WHERE JST AND AOO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. BFD
HAS GONE DOWN TO IFR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 130546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN RAPIDLY IN
THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE OVER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 6 AM. AND SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF FAVOR THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
MAINLY AFTER 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE FAST MOVING AND STRONG SHORT-WAVE SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY BEFORE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT TO THE EAST. EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SREF IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND BY ABOUT 3 PM IN THE EAST. POPS
CRASH AFTER 18Z IN THE EAST.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END WEST TO EAST AND THERE COULD BE PEAKS OF
SUN IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
THE RAP FAVORS HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SREF IS A
SPLIT DECISION WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IN THE SOUTH AND
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER KBFD LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE COVERED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
09-15Z SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THE SYSTEM BEING A FAST MOVER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 130546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN RAPIDLY IN
THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE OVER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE 6 AM. AND SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF FAVOR THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
MAINLY AFTER 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE FAST MOVING AND STRONG SHORT-WAVE SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY BEFORE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT TO THE EAST. EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SREF IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND BY ABOUT 3 PM IN THE EAST. POPS
CRASH AFTER 18Z IN THE EAST.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END WEST TO EAST AND THERE COULD BE PEAKS OF
SUN IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM AND ITS REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
THE RAP FAVORS HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SREF IS A
SPLIT DECISION WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IN THE SOUTH AND
FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER KBFD LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE COVERED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
09-15Z SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THE SYSTEM BEING A FAST MOVER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 130227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD OVC...BUT GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS BLANKETS
APPROX THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE A TIGHT FEW TO SVRL DEG F RANGE IN HOURLY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN WITH JUST
SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS..

WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...AND A SHARP INCREASE IN
PWATS WILL MOVE NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO
QUICKLY SPREAD A THICKENING/DUAL-MULTI LAYER OF CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SAT.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT...AND OUR
SOUTHERN LATITUDE...WE HAVE DOUBTS WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE MUCH OF
THE AURORA-BOREALIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT TONIGHT FROM THE
SUN`S RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTION.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE CHILLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...THEN
SHEAR OUT DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING.

AREAS OF MDTLY STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN/AND SUBSEQUENT RISING
MOTION AT THE NOSE OF A 25-35 KT LLJ...WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT CELL OF AN APPROACHING 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BECOME WET DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST TO
NE ACROSS THE STATE.

AFTERWARD...QUICK DRYING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION/...WITH 2 INCH
PWATS /MAINLY ACROSS VIRGINIA/ BRINGS THE EXPECTATION THAT PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL
AVERAGE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY RAIN...ONE MORE CHARACTERISTIC
OF FALL THAN LATE SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER KBFD LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE COVERED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
09-15Z SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THE SYSTEM BEING A FAST MOVER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 130227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD OVC...BUT GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS BLANKETS
APPROX THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE A TIGHT FEW TO SVRL DEG F RANGE IN HOURLY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN WITH JUST
SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS..

WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...AND A SHARP INCREASE IN
PWATS WILL MOVE NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO
QUICKLY SPREAD A THICKENING/DUAL-MULTI LAYER OF CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SAT.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT...AND OUR
SOUTHERN LATITUDE...WE HAVE DOUBTS WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE MUCH OF
THE AURORA-BOREALIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT TONIGHT FROM THE
SUN`S RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTION.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE CHILLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...THEN
SHEAR OUT DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING.

AREAS OF MDTLY STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN/AND SUBSEQUENT RISING
MOTION AT THE NOSE OF A 25-35 KT LLJ...WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT CELL OF AN APPROACHING 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BECOME WET DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST TO
NE ACROSS THE STATE.

AFTERWARD...QUICK DRYING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION/...WITH 2 INCH
PWATS /MAINLY ACROSS VIRGINIA/ BRINGS THE EXPECTATION THAT PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL
AVERAGE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY RAIN...ONE MORE CHARACTERISTIC
OF FALL THAN LATE SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER KBFD LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE COVERED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
09-15Z SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THE SYSTEM BEING A FAST MOVER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 130119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW...BUT GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS HAVE ERODED/RECEDED
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WITH JUST SOME
AREAS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS COVERING THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION OF PA.

WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...AND A SHARP INCREASE IN
PWATS WILL MOVE NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO
QUICKLY SPREAD A THICKENING/DUAL-MULTI LAYER OF CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SAT.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT...AND OUR
SOUTHERN LATITUDE...WE HAVE DOUBTS WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE MUCH OF
THE AURORA-BOREALIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT TONIGHT FROM THE
SUN`S RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTION.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE CHILLY 40S AND 50S WHICH
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...THEN
SHEAR OUT DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING.

AREAS OF MDTLY STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN/AND SUBSEQUENT RISING
MOTION AT THE NOSE OF A 25-35 KT LLJ...WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT CELL OF AN APPROACHING 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BECOME WET DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST TO
NE ACROSS THE STATE.

AFTERWARD...QUICK DRYING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION/...WITH 2 INCH
PWATS /MAINLY ACROSS VIRGINIA/ BRINGS THE EXPECTATION THAT PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL
AVERAGE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY RAIN...ONE MORE CHARACTERISTIC
OF FALL THAN LATE SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER KBFD LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE COVERED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
09-15Z SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THE SYSTEM BEING A FAST MOVER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 130119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW...BUT GENERALLY SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS HAVE ERODED/RECEDED
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WITH JUST SOME
AREAS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS COVERING THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION OF PA.

WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...AND A SHARP INCREASE IN
PWATS WILL MOVE NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO
QUICKLY SPREAD A THICKENING/DUAL-MULTI LAYER OF CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SAT.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT...AND OUR
SOUTHERN LATITUDE...WE HAVE DOUBTS WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE MUCH OF
THE AURORA-BOREALIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT TONIGHT FROM THE
SUN`S RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTION.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE CHILLY 40S AND 50S WHICH
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...THEN
SHEAR OUT DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING.

AREAS OF MDTLY STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN/AND SUBSEQUENT RISING
MOTION AT THE NOSE OF A 25-35 KT LLJ...WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT CELL OF AN APPROACHING 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BECOME WET DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE STEADILY EAST TO
NE ACROSS THE STATE.

AFTERWARD...QUICK DRYING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION/...WITH 2 INCH
PWATS /MAINLY ACROSS VIRGINIA/ BRINGS THE EXPECTATION THAT PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL
AVERAGE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY RAIN...ONE MORE CHARACTERISTIC
OF FALL THAN LATE SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS STARTS WHAT SHOULD BE AN ALMOST UNBROKEN STRING OF
COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO
DAYS 8-PLUS. THE ONLY INKLING OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES MORNING. A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL TAP ONLY
MEAGER MOISTURES SINCE IT WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE EARLY- WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SECOND EQUALLY DRY ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A WAVE
PROGGED TO BE SLIDING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ALL
THE MODELS TAKE IT TO OUR SOUTH...GENERALLY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TRY TO MOVE DOWN AROUND THURSDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE IS TO BE
FOUND IN ITS VICINITY.

ONE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE ICE BOX OF
KBFD...COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S BOTH MORNINGS - AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOWER 30S ON MONDAY MORNING. WHAT MIGHT BE MORE REMARKABLE IS
A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40F DIURNAL SWING ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
S/SW FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT/EARLY TUES.
BUT EVEN WITH THE GIANT SWING MONDAY SHOULD END UP JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXES. WELCOME AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER KBFD LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE COVERED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
09-15Z SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THE SYSTEM BEING A FAST MOVER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...NO SIG WX.

MON NIGHT - TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





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