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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241349
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
949 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND COLD AIR STRATO CU
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING NOR`EASTER EAST OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...HAVE ERODED OVER THE PST HOUR OR TWO.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS INDIANA WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN
AREA OF BKN CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENN
ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN /ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WAS AN AREA OF SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6-65F THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE
20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ERODED THE
PREVIOUS LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL
CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS.

AN AREA OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS PENN LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS OVR THE
W MTNS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF BLYR. BOTH KBFD AND KJST ARE UNDER IFR CIGS AT 11Z...BUT
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. HRRR/RAP
OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDS
BTWN 12Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM. KAOO WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-13Z.

THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS OVR THE
W MTNS CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
OF BLYR. KJST HAS BEEN UNDER AN IFR CIG SINCE 05Z AND LATEST SATL
TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP OUTPUT STRONGLY SUGGEST KBFD WILL EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. KAOO WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS
BTWN 09Z-13Z.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 13Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240607
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LOW STRATUS PILING UP ON THE LAURELS AND INTO WESTERN WARREN CO.
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST DO SEEM TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS
THROUGH SUNRISE. MINS MAY BE HELD UP IN THE FAR WEST AND EAST DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. SUNLIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO
MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO
THE EAST. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NEARING AND COULD DIM THE SUN AFTER
THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240539
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
139 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRACTURED WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT...AND IS NOW ALIGNED N-S FROM *EASTERN*
POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRACTURED WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT...AND IS NOW ALIGNED N-S FROM *EASTERN*
POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW
LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRACTURED WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT...AND IS NOW ALIGNED N-S FROM *EASTERN*
POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW
LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
929 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS NEARLY STATIONARY N TO S FROM POTTER
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CENTRE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MILDER READINGS
ARE MORE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW
LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS NEARLY STATIONARY N TO S FROM POTTER
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CENTRE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MILDER READINGS
ARE MORE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 232016
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
416 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NWRLY WINDS AS THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT
SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST
OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE
SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
253 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NWRLY WINDS AS THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT
SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST
OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE
SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
253 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NWRLY WINDS AS THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT
SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST
OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE
SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231647
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN NWRLY AS THE UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END
TONIGHT...AS COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER
IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST
IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS STILL WITH MVFR
CIGS. AS UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THINNING AND MOST TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
SUNSET.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231647
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN NWRLY AS THE UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END
TONIGHT...AS COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER
IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST
IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS STILL WITH MVFR
CIGS. AS UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THINNING AND MOST TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
SUNSET.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF -SHRA EARLY
THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD
END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING INTO EARLY
FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING
FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN
PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS
WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WRAP AROUND RAINS REACHING THE FAR ERN ZONES
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SULLIVAN AND COLUMBIA COS. LATEST HRRR
CONFINES RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE SUSQ
RIVER WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO NERN PA THROUGH TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING OVER WRN AREAS WITH CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING IN THE
EAST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER
THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS
SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD
END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING INTO EARLY
FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING
FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN
PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS
WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230241
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BACK INTO ERN AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND A GUSTY NNW WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 222329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PA ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHC EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 222223
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PA ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHC EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 222140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTEN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221858
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTEN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED EAST OF SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY
EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER
NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED EAST OF SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY
EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER
NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221216
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
816 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN VA THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFF THE TIDEWATER AND DELMARVA
BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD BACK
TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z
SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN VA AT
09Z. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFF THE TIDEWATER AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE
00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220710
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER VA AT 06Z. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM
IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL WITH OCNL TS/LTG HAS
BEEN PIVOTING NWWD TWD THE RT 30 CORRIDOR. THIS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
NRN DELMARVA...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME 0.50"+ AMTS OVER EXTREME SERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COS. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS
AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN
1/3 OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT
WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE
COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220241
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA
ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN
THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA
ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN
THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
815 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA
ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN
THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.
WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND
SOME SHOWERS AND FOG AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.
WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND
SOME SHOWERS AND FOG AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211904
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





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