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000
FXUS61 KCTP 051127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE THRU 14-15Z...GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING HIGH
CIRRUS CANOPY INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND PREVAILING VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE THRU 14-15Z...GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING HIGH
CIRRUS CANOPY INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND PREVAILING VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 051127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE THRU 14-15Z...GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING HIGH
CIRRUS CANOPY INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND PREVAILING VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE THRU 14-15Z...GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING HIGH
CIRRUS CANOPY INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND PREVAILING VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050956 CCA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050956 CCA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050956 CCA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATE EARLY
THIS MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATE EARLY
THIS MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURN OFF LATE EARLY
THIS MORNING...THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION TODAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR COMBINED WITH
MOIST GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S MDT-HVY RAINFALL TO STEADILY LOWER
VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

A LIGHT NW BREEZE AND NOTABLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S HAS PREVENTED FOG SO FAR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW MTNS...AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO BE THE CASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS MORNING.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES OF THE STATE.

1019 MB SFC HIGH INVOF KBFD AT 08Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING ABUNDANT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE U70S...TO MID 80S IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST
FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/
WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACIANS. PWATS INITIALLY AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH THIS
EVENING WILL NEARLY DOUBLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS UP TO
10F HIGHER THAN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...BUT JUST A FEW TO SVRL DEG HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND POPS OF
AROUND 60 PERCENT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. WILL ALLOW FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO HELP FINE-TUNE THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MORE
DEFINABLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050635
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050635
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050635
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050635
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LOCAL VISBYS AND CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD MINS. THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO HIGH
CIRRUS VEIL INCREASING FROM THE S/W AND VFR FLYING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LKLY BRING LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING
UNDER THE EAST/WEST SFC RIDGE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PENN.
T/TD SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN WERE 0-2 DEG F.

LESS FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...WHERE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...TOPPED BY CIRRUS STREAMING NE
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. T/TD SPREADS ACROSS SRN PENN AT 05Z
WERE STILL SEVERAL DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THE FOG TO GET LOCALLY DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BY 13-14Z...BENEATH
SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET
GROUND AND POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE
PLUME OVR THE GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050132
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
932 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR
EASTERN PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. SCT
SHRA...WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LVL VORT MAX ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS OF 0120Z AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER THREAT
SHOULD END ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 02Z.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND
POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE
A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE PLUME OVR THE
GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050132
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
932 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR
EASTERN PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. SCT
SHRA...WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LVL VORT MAX ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS OF 0120Z AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER THREAT
SHOULD END ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 02Z.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND
POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE
A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE PLUME OVR THE
GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR EASTERN
PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NW PA IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 70S.

THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
FROM KUNV/KIPT EASTWARD ARND SUNSET.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND LACK
OF MIXING BENEATH SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR EASTERN
PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NW PA IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 70S.

THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
FROM KUNV/KIPT EASTWARD ARND SUNSET.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND LACK
OF MIXING BENEATH SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 042246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR EASTERN
PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NW PA IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 70S.

THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
FROM KUNV/KIPT EASTWARD ARND SUNSET.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND LACK
OF MIXING BENEATH SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR EASTERN
PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NW PA IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 70S.

THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
FROM KUNV/KIPT EASTWARD ARND SUNSET.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND LACK
OF MIXING BENEATH SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ADDED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR.

ALSO STORMS SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER...AN INTERESTING WEATHER
PATTERN.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE
COAST.

THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR
WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME
INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ADDED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR.

ALSO STORMS SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER...AN INTERESTING WEATHER
PATTERN.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE
COAST.

THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR
WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME
INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041822
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE
COAST.

THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR
WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME
INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041822
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE
COAST.

THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR
WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME
INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041427
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SO FAR TIMING IS HOLDING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD NOW ENTERING MY EASTERN ZONES. WE
WILL SEE SLOW DRYING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST.

THE HRRR STILL FORMS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ON THE EDGE OF THE
MORE SOLID CLOUDS IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY.

FROM EARLIER...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS OF MID MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041427
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SO FAR TIMING IS HOLDING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD NOW ENTERING MY EASTERN ZONES. WE
WILL SEE SLOW DRYING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST.

THE HRRR STILL FORMS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ON THE EDGE OF THE
MORE SOLID CLOUDS IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY.

FROM EARLIER...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS OF MID MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC REGION WILL CONTINUE
RAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. IFR TO
MVFR CONDS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND TO THE UPSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER IN SPOTS AS WELL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE/AOB AIRFIELD
MINS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ
BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC REGION WILL CONTINUE
RAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. IFR TO
MVFR CONDS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND TO THE UPSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER IN SPOTS AS WELL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE/AOB AIRFIELD
MINS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ
BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC REGION WILL CONTINUE
RAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. IFR TO
MVFR CONDS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND TO THE UPSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER IN SPOTS AS WELL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE/AOB AIRFIELD
MINS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ
BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC REGION WILL CONTINUE
RAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. IFR TO
MVFR CONDS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND TO THE UPSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER IN SPOTS AS WELL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE/AOB AIRFIELD
MINS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ
BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OH VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OH VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OH VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 040614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
BOOSTING POPS FURTHER TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL MUCH OF WARREN
COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN
ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF LOWER/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTWAVES.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW 3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST
1.2-1.5 INCHES.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 0530Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD
BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS
TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND
MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL MIXED INSTABILITY/CAPE OF UP TO SVRL
HUNDRED J/KG.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES /WHERE FFG IS THE LOWEST/ IN THE HWO
AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN.
HEATING/DESTABILIZATIONIN THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW
COMPACT PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COOL FOR THE
4TH...AVERAGING SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OH VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 040614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
BOOSTING POPS FURTHER TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL MUCH OF WARREN
COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN
ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF LOWER/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTWAVES.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW 3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST
1.2-1.5 INCHES.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 0530Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD
BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS
TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND
MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL MIXED INSTABILITY/CAPE OF UP TO SVRL
HUNDRED J/KG.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES /WHERE FFG IS THE LOWEST/ IN THE HWO
AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN.
HEATING/DESTABILIZATIONIN THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW
COMPACT PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COOL FOR THE
4TH...AVERAGING SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OH VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
BOOSTING POPS FURTHER TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL MUCH OF WARREN
COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN
ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF LOWER/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTWAVES.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW 3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST
1.2-1.5 INCHES.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 0530Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD
BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS
TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND
MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL MIXED INSTABILITY/CAPE OF UP TO SVRL
HUNDRED J/KG.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES /WHERE FFG IS THE LOWEST/ IN THE HWO
AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION
IN THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW COMPACT PM TSRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES AND SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COOL FOR THE
4TH...AVERAGING SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING
MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
BOOSTING POPS FURTHER TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL MUCH OF WARREN
COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN
ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF LOWER/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTWAVES.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW 3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST
1.2-1.5 INCHES.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 0530Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD
BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS
TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND
MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL MIXED INSTABILITY/CAPE OF UP TO SVRL
HUNDRED J/KG.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES /WHERE FFG IS THE LOWEST/ IN THE HWO
AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION
IN THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW COMPACT PM TSRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES AND SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COOL FOR THE
4TH...AVERAGING SOME 8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 040328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 040328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 040242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 040242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 032305
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 032305
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 032118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 032008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031419
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONG
EARLY SUMMER SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS EVEN AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER MY SWRN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE LEAVING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY MID DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VICINITY AFTER 21Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE APPALACHIANS
AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031419
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONG
EARLY SUMMER SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS EVEN AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER MY SWRN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE LEAVING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY MID DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VICINITY AFTER 21Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE APPALACHIANS
AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VCNTY BY 20Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AT LEAST MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VCNTY BY 20Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AT LEAST MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN INCREASED
QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25
OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN INCREASED
QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25
OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. DID BRING FOG TO LNS A
LITTLE FASTER...GIVEN CURRENT OB. LNS ALSO HAD A SHOWER
EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. DID BRING FOG TO LNS A
LITTLE FASTER...GIVEN CURRENT OB. LNS ALSO HAD A SHOWER
EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030219
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021633
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALELY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021633
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALELY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE
THIS MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE
LOWER PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE
THIS MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE
LOWER PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL




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