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000
FXUS61 KCTP 012046
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TO REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
DID ADJUST THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN SOME...TO FIT IN WITH THE
CURRENT OBS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

BRIGHT BANDING AND ELEVATED CCS SHOWING THE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONE
WELL AS IT TRANSLATES NORTH OF THE MD BORDER INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. 3" OF NEW SNOW
O.G. NEAR GREENCASTLE FROM A TRUSTED WEATHER SPOTTER AND NOW
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT 27F. SLEET HAD BRIEFLY MIXED IN EARLIER
ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK. A GENERAL 2-4" IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF ROUTE 99...WITH THE ADDITIONAL
CHANGEOVER TO ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ADDING ANOTHER .1 TO .15"
OF ICE ON TOP IN THOSE AREAS.

OVERALL SCENARIO PLAYING OUT WITH WITH PERIODS OF SNOW (OF
VARYING INTENSITY) CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 150+ KT 250 MB JET SLICING ENE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS BEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...IN VICINITY OF 850 MB JET FEATURES...FIRST OF WHICH
HAS SPAWNED A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP RATES
FROM NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS IS PROGGED
TO EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE A MORE BROAD
AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER TROF
NEARS.

12Z RAP HANDLED THE ONGOING CHANGEOVER QUITE WELL FOR AREAS ALONG
THE MD BORDER...AND EXPECT MDT TO BE CHANGING OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...STARTING WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND THEN MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...AS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE .1 TO .15" RANGE OVERALL...WITH SOME APPROACHING .20" ON TOP
OF THE 2-4" OF SNOW ACCUM.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CONSISTENCY OF PAST SEVERAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLES
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...WITH BULK OF
THIS WINTRY EVENT FALLING AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN. AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION HAVE BEEN
TRICKY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IN GENERAL IT
APPEARS THAT 2-4" WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST...WHILE BETTER UPSLOPE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS PRODUCE MAX AMOUNTS THERE...GENERALLY UP TO 6" BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOT AMOUNTS COME IN HIGHER.

TEMPS WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS SOME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THINK MAIN TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID
PUT SMALL AMTS OF .01 ICE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THAT OBJECT
TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE COLD. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT MAY
DROP A LITTLE...BEFORE COMING BACK UP LATE.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA
TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...GIVEN
SPLIT FLOW.

PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO
BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE
LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT BEST RADAR RETURNS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MIX
TRANSITION TO ICE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ
WILL LIFT NORTH OF KMDT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRES FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PA VSBYS SHOULD AVERAGE NEARLY 1SM
HIGHER IN THE LIGHT SNOW.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 1530Z
ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND ERN PA AIRFIELDS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
BELOW 1KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DROP IN ALL AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT
OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 012046
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS
TO REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
DID ADJUST THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN SOME...TO FIT IN WITH THE
CURRENT OBS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

BRIGHT BANDING AND ELEVATED CCS SHOWING THE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONE
WELL AS IT TRANSLATES NORTH OF THE MD BORDER INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. 3" OF NEW SNOW
O.G. NEAR GREENCASTLE FROM A TRUSTED WEATHER SPOTTER AND NOW
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT 27F. SLEET HAD BRIEFLY MIXED IN EARLIER
ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK. A GENERAL 2-4" IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF ROUTE 99...WITH THE ADDITIONAL
CHANGEOVER TO ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ADDING ANOTHER .1 TO .15"
OF ICE ON TOP IN THOSE AREAS.

OVERALL SCENARIO PLAYING OUT WITH WITH PERIODS OF SNOW (OF
VARYING INTENSITY) CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 150+ KT 250 MB JET SLICING ENE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS BEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...IN VICINITY OF 850 MB JET FEATURES...FIRST OF WHICH
HAS SPAWNED A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP RATES
FROM NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS IS PROGGED
TO EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE A MORE BROAD
AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER TROF
NEARS.

12Z RAP HANDLED THE ONGOING CHANGEOVER QUITE WELL FOR AREAS ALONG
THE MD BORDER...AND EXPECT MDT TO BE CHANGING OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...STARTING WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND THEN MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...AS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE .1 TO .15" RANGE OVERALL...WITH SOME APPROACHING .20" ON TOP
OF THE 2-4" OF SNOW ACCUM.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CONSISTENCY OF PAST SEVERAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLES
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...WITH BULK OF
THIS WINTRY EVENT FALLING AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN. AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION HAVE BEEN
TRICKY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IN GENERAL IT
APPEARS THAT 2-4" WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST...WHILE BETTER UPSLOPE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS PRODUCE MAX AMOUNTS THERE...GENERALLY UP TO 6" BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOT AMOUNTS COME IN HIGHER.

TEMPS WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS SOME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THINK MAIN TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID
PUT SMALL AMTS OF .01 ICE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THAT OBJECT
TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE COLD. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT MAY
DROP A LITTLE...BEFORE COMING BACK UP LATE.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA
TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...GIVEN
SPLIT FLOW.

PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO
BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE
LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT BEST RADAR RETURNS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MIX
TRANSITION TO ICE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ
WILL LIFT NORTH OF KMDT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRES FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PA VSBYS SHOULD AVERAGE NEARLY 1SM
HIGHER IN THE LIGHT SNOW.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 1530Z
ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND ERN PA AIRFIELDS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
BELOW 1KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DROP IN ALL AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT
OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRIGHT BANDING AND ELEVATED CCS SHOWING THE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONE
WELL AS IT TRANSLATES NORTH OF THE MD BORDER INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. 3" OF NEW SNOW
O.G. NEAR GREENCASTLE FROM A TRUSTED WEATHER SPOTTER AND NOW
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT 27F. SLEET HAD BRIEFLY MIXED IN EARLIER
ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK. A GENERAL 2-4" IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF ROUTE 99...WITH THE ADDITIONAL
CHANGEOVER TO ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ADDING ANOTHER .1 TO .15" OF
ICE ON TOP IN THOSE AREAS.

OVERALL SCENARIO PLAYING OUT WITH WITH PERIODS OF SNOW (OF
VARYING INTENSITY) CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 150+ KT 250 MB JET SLICING ENE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS BEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...IN VICINITY OF 850 MB JET FEATURES...FIRST OF WHICH
HAS SPAWNED A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP RATES
FROM NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS IS PROGGED
TO EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE A MORE BROAD
AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER TROF
NEARS.

12Z RAP HANDLED THE ONGOING CHANGEOVER QUITE WELL FOR AREAS ALONG
THE MD BORDER...AND EXPECT MDT TO BE CHANGING OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...STARTING WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND THEN MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...AS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE .1 TO .15" RANGE OVERALL...WITH SOME APPROACHING .20" ON TOP
OF THE 2-4" OF SNOW ACCUM.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CONSISTENCY OF PAST SEVERAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLES
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...WITH BULK OF
THIS WINTRY EVENT FALLING AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN. AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION HAVE BEEN
TRICKY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IN GENERAL IT
APPEARS THAT 2-4" WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST...WHILE BETTER UPSLOPE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS PRODUCE MAX AMOUNTS THERE...GENERALLY UP TO 6" BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOT AMOUNTS COME IN HIGHER.

TEMPS WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
RESPECTIVELY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST
PLACES THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT BEST RADAR RETURNS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MIX
TRANSITION TO ICE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ
WILL LIFT NORTH OF KMDT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRES FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PA VSBYS SHOULD AVERAGE NEARLY 1SM
HIGHER IN THE LIGHT SNOW.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 1530Z
ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND ERN PA AIRFIELDS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
BELOW 1KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DROP IN ALL AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT
OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRIGHT BANDING AND ELEVATED CCS SHOWING THE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONE
WELL AS IT TRANSLATES NORTH OF THE MD BORDER INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. 3" OF NEW SNOW
O.G. NEAR GREENCASTLE FROM A TRUSTED WEATHER SPOTTER AND NOW
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT 27F. SLEET HAD BRIEFLY MIXED IN EARLIER
ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK. A GENERAL 2-4" IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF ROUTE 99...WITH THE ADDITIONAL
CHANGEOVER TO ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY ADDING ANOTHER .1 TO .15" OF
ICE ON TOP IN THOSE AREAS.

OVERALL SCENARIO PLAYING OUT WITH WITH PERIODS OF SNOW (OF
VARYING INTENSITY) CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 150+ KT 250 MB JET SLICING ENE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GLAKS. BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING IS BEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...IN VICINITY OF 850 MB JET FEATURES...FIRST OF WHICH
HAS SPAWNED A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP RATES
FROM NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS IS PROGGED
TO EXIT EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE A MORE BROAD
AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER TROF
NEARS.

12Z RAP HANDLED THE ONGOING CHANGEOVER QUITE WELL FOR AREAS ALONG
THE MD BORDER...AND EXPECT MDT TO BE CHANGING OVER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...STARTING WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND THEN MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...AS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE .1 TO .15" RANGE OVERALL...WITH SOME APPROACHING .20" ON TOP
OF THE 2-4" OF SNOW ACCUM.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CONSISTENCY OF PAST SEVERAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLES
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...WITH BULK OF
THIS WINTRY EVENT FALLING AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN. AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION HAVE BEEN
TRICKY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IN GENERAL IT
APPEARS THAT 2-4" WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST...WHILE BETTER UPSLOPE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS PRODUCE MAX AMOUNTS THERE...GENERALLY UP TO 6" BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOT AMOUNTS COME IN HIGHER.

TEMPS WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
RESPECTIVELY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST
PLACES THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT BEST RADAR RETURNS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MIX
TRANSITION TO ICE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ
WILL LIFT NORTH OF KMDT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRES FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PA VSBYS SHOULD AVERAGE NEARLY 1SM
HIGHER IN THE LIGHT SNOW.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 1530Z
ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND ERN PA AIRFIELDS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
BELOW 1KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DROP IN ALL AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT
OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING VARIABLE RETURN INTENSITIES WITHIN
THE BROAD...MDTLY STG WEST-SWRLY WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

VSBYS IN THE 1.5-3SM RANGE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 14Z...DECREASE
WWD TO BETWEEN 3/4-1SM ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT
STEADY AND SLIGHTLY VARYING SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING /AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/ AS THE MEAN
925-850 MB ZERO DEG C WET BULB ISOTHERM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AND WILL ONLY BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SNOW ACCUM GRIDS WITH AN INJECTION OF
BLENDED NEW 09Z/12Z ENS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY EYE-OPENING CHANGES WITH OUR CURRENT FCST STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
BY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT VALUES WILL STILL RESIDE WELL WITHIN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN STILL SURROUNDS THE TIMING OF SNOW
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO FZRA ACROSS THE SCENT AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
REGIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED QPF
AMOUNTS.

12Z RAP FOR KMDT SHOWS A BRIEF CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 18-19Z THEN
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF.
06Z NAM IS VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND CONTAINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 0.25 INCH
FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY AT KMDT AND KLNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH 0.5-1.5SM SNOW BLANKET THE
REGION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AT 1530Z. EXPECT THIS
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS
EASTWARD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRES
FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PA VSBYS
SHOULD AVERAGE NEARLY 1SM HIGHER IN THE LIGHT SNOW.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 1530Z
ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND ERN PA AIRFIELDS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
BELOW 1KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DROP IN ALL AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT
OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING VARIABLE RETURN INTENSITIES WITHIN
THE BROAD...MDTLY STG WEST-SWRLY WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

VSBYS IN THE 1.5-3SM RANGE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 14Z...DECREASE
WWD TO BETWEEN 3/4-1SM ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT
STEADY AND SLIGHTLY VARYING SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING /AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/ AS THE MEAN
925-850 MB ZERO DEG C WET BULB ISOTHERM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AND WILL ONLY BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SNOW ACCUM GRIDS WITH AN INJECTION OF
BLENDED NEW 09Z/12Z ENS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY EYE-OPENING CHANGES WITH OUR CURRENT FCST STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
BY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT VALUES WILL STILL RESIDE WELL WITHIN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN STILL SURROUNDS THE TIMING OF SNOW
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO FZRA ACROSS THE SCENT AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
REGIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED QPF
AMOUNTS.

12Z RAP FOR KMDT SHOWS A BRIEF CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 18-19Z THEN
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF.
06Z NAM IS VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND CONTAINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 0.25 INCH
FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY AT KMDT AND KLNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH 0.5-1.5SM SNOW BLANKET THE
REGION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AT 1530Z. EXPECT THIS
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS
EASTWARD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRES
FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PA VSBYS
SHOULD AVERAGE NEARLY 1SM HIGHER IN THE LIGHT SNOW.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 1530Z
ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND ERN PA AIRFIELDS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
BELOW 1KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DROP IN ALL AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT
OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011454
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING VARIABLE RETURN INTENSITIES WITHIN
THE BROAD...MDTLY STG WEST-SWRLY WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

VSBYS IN THE 1.5-3SM RANGE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 14Z...DECREASE
WWD TO BETWEEN 3/4-1SM ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT
STEADY AND SLIGHTLY VARYING SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING /AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/ AS THE MEAN
925-850 MB ZERO DEG C WET BULB ISOTHERM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AND WILL ONLY BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SNOW ACCUM GRIDS WITH AN INJECTION OF
BLENDED NEW 09Z/12Z ENS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY EYE-OPENING CHANGES WITH OUR CURRENT FCST STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
BY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT VALUES WILL STILL RESIDE WEEL WITHIN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN STILL SURROUNDS THE TIMING OF SNOW
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO FZRA ACROSS THE SCENT AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
REGIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED QPF
AMOUNTS.

12Z RAP FOR KMDT SHOWS A BRIEF CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 18-19Z THEN
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF.
06Z NAM IS VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND CONTAINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 0.25 INCH
FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY AT KMDT AND KLNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011454
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING VARIABLE RETURN INTENSITIES WITHIN
THE BROAD...MDTLY STG WEST-SWRLY WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

VSBYS IN THE 1.5-3SM RANGE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 14Z...DECREASE
WWD TO BETWEEN 3/4-1SM ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT
STEADY AND SLIGHTLY VARYING SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING /AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/ AS THE MEAN
925-850 MB ZERO DEG C WET BULB ISOTHERM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AND WILL ONLY BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SNOW ACCUM GRIDS WITH AN INJECTION OF
BLENDED NEW 09Z/12Z ENS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY EYE-OPENING CHANGES WITH OUR CURRENT FCST STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
BY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT VALUES WILL STILL RESIDE WEEL WITHIN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN STILL SURROUNDS THE TIMING OF SNOW
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO FZRA ACROSS THE SCENT AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
REGIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED QPF
AMOUNTS.

12Z RAP FOR KMDT SHOWS A BRIEF CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 18-19Z THEN
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF.
06Z NAM IS VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND CONTAINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 0.25 INCH
FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY AT KMDT AND KLNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011454
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING VARIABLE RETURN INTENSITIES WITHIN
THE BROAD...MDTLY STG WEST-SWRLY WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

VSBYS IN THE 1.5-3SM RANGE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 14Z...DECREASE
WWD TO BETWEEN 3/4-1SM ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT
STEADY AND SLIGHTLY VARYING SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING /AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/ AS THE MEAN
925-850 MB ZERO DEG C WET BULB ISOTHERM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AND WILL ONLY BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SNOW ACCUM GRIDS WITH AN INJECTION OF
BLENDED NEW 09Z/12Z ENS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY EYE-OPENING CHANGES WITH OUR CURRENT FCST STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
BY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT VALUES WILL STILL RESIDE WEEL WITHIN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN STILL SURROUNDS THE TIMING OF SNOW
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO FZRA ACROSS THE SCENT AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
REGIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED QPF
AMOUNTS.

12Z RAP FOR KMDT SHOWS A BRIEF CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND 18-19Z THEN
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTERWARD WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH QPF.
06Z NAM IS VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND CONTAINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 0.25 INCH
FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY AT KMDT AND KLNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT AND UPCOMING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE FOR ICE ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...UNLESS WE SEE REASON TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011308
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD EAST
TO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 10Z.

LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM APPROX 2-4 TENTHS OF LIQ EQUIV QPF.

MULTI MODEL BLEND ALSO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THE THREAT FOR UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BEST CHC BEING CLOSE TO
THE PA/MD BORDER. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS.

CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011308
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD EAST
TO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 10Z.

LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM APPROX 2-4 TENTHS OF LIQ EQUIV QPF.

MULTI MODEL BLEND ALSO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THE THREAT FOR UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BEST CHC BEING CLOSE TO
THE PA/MD BORDER. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS.

CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011308
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD EAST
TO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 10Z.

LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM APPROX 2-4 TENTHS OF LIQ EQUIV QPF.

MULTI MODEL BLEND ALSO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THE THREAT FOR UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BEST CHC BEING CLOSE TO
THE PA/MD BORDER. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS.

CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011308
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD EAST
TO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 10Z.

LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM APPROX 2-4 TENTHS OF LIQ EQUIV QPF.

MULTI MODEL BLEND ALSO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THE THREAT FOR UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BEST CHC BEING CLOSE TO
THE PA/MD BORDER. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS.

CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MID MORNING..THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...REDUCING VSBYS TO 2 MILES OR LESS
/IFR CONDITIONS/ ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 1500FT AT 13Z...BUT WILL ALSO
DROP AS DAY WEARS ON. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFT AND THIS EVENING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS GOING BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LATE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011058
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD EAST
TO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 10Z.

LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM APPROX 2-4 TENTHS OF LIQ EQUIV QPF.

MULTI MODEL BLEND ALSO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THE THREAT FOR UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BEST CHC BEING CLOSE TO
THE PA/MD BORDER. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS.

CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011058
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS PAIR OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW...THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD EAST
TO THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS OF 10Z.

LATEST 00Z/06Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF ARE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM APPROX 2-4 TENTHS OF LIQ EQUIV QPF.

MULTI MODEL BLEND ALSO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY THE THREAT FOR UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BEST CHC BEING CLOSE TO
THE PA/MD BORDER. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS.

CONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
RESPECT TO PTYPE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THIS WINTRY EVENT
WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F
THROUGH 13Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO A LATE DAY HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY.

WINDS WILL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS IN MOST PLACES THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF
SHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MIXED PRECIP OR
FREEZING RAIN RATES OVER THE SERN COS FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
/BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

GREATEST FCST BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE SE...WHERE
IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO TURNOVER TO MIXED PRECIP/ZR...IT WILL
MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED THERE MAY NUDGE THEM
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FEB
21ST.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT /UNDER PLENTY OF LINGERING AND MORE
SHALLOW...WARMER LOWER CLOUDS/ WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEG IN THE
NORTH TO 30F IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE BOOKS HAVE CLOSED AND WE NOW HAVE /AND MADE IT THROUGH/ THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES WERE...IPT 18.1...MDT 20.9.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT
21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934.

THIS FEBRUARY RANKED AS THE THIRD COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER AT
IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010741
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BRINGING SNOW THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTOSTRATUS AND NIMBOSTRATUS WITH VIRGA CONTINUES TO
LOWER/THICKEN UP AND SPREAD TWD OUR WRN MTN ZONES AT 07Z. ONSET
TIME ADJUSTMENT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT AND HOURLY POP GRIDS LOOK IN
DECENT SHAPE ATTM...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO LIGHT SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

LATEST 00Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF INDICATE THE THREAT FOR AROUND
0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN...WE WON/T MAKE ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM
WARNINGS AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING
POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.

STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS EVENT WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN
SLOWLY RISE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE MD
BORDER SOUTH OF KTHV AND KLNS - WILL BE SNOW/BRIEFLY MIXED WITH
SLEET...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF SHORE
LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN COS...AND
HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO
WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM PORTRAY A
DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR SERN COS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END OF THAT
PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO
CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010741
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BRINGING SNOW THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTOSTRATUS AND NIMBOSTRATUS WITH VIRGA CONTINUES TO
LOWER/THICKEN UP AND SPREAD TWD OUR WRN MTN ZONES AT 07Z. ONSET
TIME ADJUSTMENT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT AND HOURLY POP GRIDS LOOK IN
DECENT SHAPE ATTM...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO LIGHT SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

LATEST 00Z OPER MODELS AND 03Z SREF INDICATE THE THREAT FOR AROUND
0.25 INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR. SINCE THE EVENT WILL START AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SLEET AND FZRA WITH ICE AMOUNTS STILL
UNCERTAIN...WE WON/T MAKE ANY UPGRADES TO WINTER STORM/ICE STORM
WARNINGS AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL HIGH RES MODELS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE BETTER DETAIL TO MAKE THE DECISION REGARDING
POTENTIAL ICE AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.

STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS EVENT WILL FALL AS SNOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN
SLOWLY RISE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE MD
BORDER SOUTH OF KTHV AND KLNS - WILL BE SNOW/BRIEFLY MIXED WITH
SLEET...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING OFF SHORE
LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN COS...AND
HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO
WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM PORTRAY A
DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR SERN COS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END OF THAT
PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO
CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-
028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS LONGEST...AND
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERRIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS
LONGEST...AND MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
AND RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERRIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS
LONGEST...AND MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
AND RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HAVE MOVE START TIME OF THE WINTER WX ADVY UP/CLOSER BY A FEW
HOURS TO ALLOW FOR FAST ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO
TWEAK WORDING IN STATEMENT TO KEEP MENTIONS OF ZR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 22. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NICE AND COLD AS THE SNOW
STARTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW/DRY.

PREV...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL THINKING THAT MOST PRECIP - EVEN ALONG THE MD BORDER - WILL
BE SNOW...AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. THE VERY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON THE DELMARVA AND RUSHING
OFF SHORE LATER SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE SERN
COS...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE UPDATE. DID NOT WANT
TO GO TOO WILD WITH CHANGES BUT THE 18Z RUNS AND NEWEST 00Z NAM
PORTRAY A DECENT SLUG OF COLD/FROZEN PRECIP ROLLING THRU THE FAR
SERN COS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY AT THE TAIL END
OF THAT PRECIP - AS THE DRY SLOT OCCURS - IS THERE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO LIQUID OR SLEET.

VERY INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SNOW TYPE. THERE
IS A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUDS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS SQUARELY IN
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15C. THEN...IT FALLS
THROUGH A HIGHLY MOIST/SATURATED COLUMN AND GETS ONLY CLOSE TO
MELTING INMOST PLACE. THIS COULD MAKE SOME GIANT BUT WET FLAKES.
THUS...A HIGH WATER CONTENT AND HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW PHYSICS...THE
WINDS ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS ALL WILL PULL THE SNOW ACCUMS ONE WAY
AND ANOTHER. HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO PAST
WEEKENDS VERY SIMILAR STORM. MANY SIMILARITIES EXIST WITH THAT
PREV STORM...BUT THE TEMPS APPEAR JUST SLIGHTLY COLDER. THINKING
THAT WE WILL GET BIGGER FLAKES BUT END UP WITH THE SAME WATER
CONTENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE SE...WHERE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING NO
TURNOVER TO MIX/ZR WILL MEAN THAT THE 0.6 INCHES OF WATER PROGGED
THERE MAY NUDGE THEM NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS. EVEN THIS SEEMS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21ST.

630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERRIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS
LONGEST...AND MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
AND RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY...IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH
SET IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
PAZ025-026-034>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282353
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERRIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS
LONGEST...AND MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
AND RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG
CLIMATE...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282353
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERRIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS
LONGEST...AND MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
AND RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG
CLIMATE...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282353
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILL BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
INTO THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY
13Z. BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO
SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITH MORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW RAPIDLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING RAPID DETERRIORATION OF
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
FAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS TO HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS
LONGEST...AND MAY MAKE IT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW
AND RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN.

GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL THE THREAT OF SOME FZRA MIXING IN IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG
CLIMATE...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILLBRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW INTO
THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY 13Z.
BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITHMORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...09Z TO 12Z...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILLBRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW INTO
THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY 13Z.
BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITHMORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...09Z TO 12Z...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILLBRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW INTO
THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY 13Z.
BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITHMORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...09Z TO 12Z...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAM
EWRD ON FAST/ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE THICKENING UP A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICALLY HALT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE
FASTER ONSET WILLBRING THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW INTO
THE NW BY 09Z AND ACROSS ABOUT THE NWRN 3/4S OF THE AREA BY 13Z.
BUT IT SHOULD BE ONLY BRIEFLY HEAVY. MAIN CHANGES ARE TO SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE...
18Z NAM GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS FROM 15Z NOW AGREE UPON A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE/VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND/S STORM WHERE THE
PRECIP MAY BE A LOT LIGHTER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND HEAVIER IN THE
SERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS COLD AIR HANGS ON MUCH LONGER THRU THE
TIME WHEN IT IS PRECIPPING. THE TEMPS DO NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SRN TIER UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THE ACCUM PRECIP.
DRY SLOT SEEMS TO HIT THE SC MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN SLIDE
EAST AND END PRECIP BY 00Z MON IN THE SERN COS. THEREFORE WILL
DOWNPLAY THE ZR AND GO WITHMORE SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF IN
THE AFTN FOR THE SERN COS. THIS MAKES A BIG CHANGE /UPWARD/ IN THE
SNOW NUMBERS FOR THE LOWER SUSQ AND A SLIGHT DOWN- TICK FOR MUCH
OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE WRN MTNS. ALL ARE
STILL IN ADVY- LEVEL NUMBERS...BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
NOW. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLAGS...BUT RE- WORD THE WSW SLIGHTLY.

PREV...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT... MEANING
THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO VERIFY
AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8" MUST
ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS THAT
WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...09Z TO 12Z...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...09Z TO 12Z...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
CLIMATE...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MID CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...09Z TO 12Z...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH.
MON...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS MAINLY AM...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
CLIMATE...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281907
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281907
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281907
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY AS
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL
POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVERALL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORTLIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS
IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY
INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN
RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE A RETURN OF SNOW TO SRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH A FLAT SRN
STREAM WAVE...BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS NOW KEEP THE
SURFACE WAVE SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION..HINTING THAT
ONLY FAR SERN AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING
SNOW. THE 06Z GEFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE POPS SO IT`S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING WILL YET HAPPEN AS MODELS
TRY AND RESOLVE SMALL SCALE FEATURES DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN US LONG WAVE. TOO FAR OFF TO LEAN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER FOR A SOLUTION.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A
LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF
FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LACORTE
EQUIPMENT...CTP




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LACORTE
EQUIPMENT...CTP





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LACORTE
EQUIPMENT...CTP





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON`T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC).

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LACORTE
EQUIPMENT...CTP




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281559
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER FRIGID EARLY MORNING UNDER 1044
MB RIDGE. HOURLY READINGS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15F NORTH TO THE LOWER
20S SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...16Z UPDATE...
UPCOMING EVENT WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...UTILIZING THE 8"
24-HOUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT SURE WE`LL SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE
WATCH CURRENTLY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LEANING TOWARDS DOWNGRADE TO
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD
DISTRIBUTION OF QPF...WHICH COULD LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WILL COLLAB WITH PBZ AND BUF AFTER LOOKING AT REST
OF 12Z SUITE TO MAKE FINAL HEADLINE DECISIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...PREVIOUS...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281559
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER FRIGID EARLY MORNING UNDER 1044
MB RIDGE. HOURLY READINGS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15F NORTH TO THE LOWER
20S SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...16Z UPDATE...
UPCOMING EVENT WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...UTILIZING THE 8"
24-HOUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT SURE WE`LL SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE
WATCH CURRENTLY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LEANING TOWARDS DOWNGRADE TO
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD
DISTRIBUTION OF QPF...WHICH COULD LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WILL COLLAB WITH PBZ AND BUF AFTER LOOKING AT REST
OF 12Z SUITE TO MAKE FINAL HEADLINE DECISIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...PREVIOUS...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281559
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER FRIGID EARLY MORNING UNDER 1044
MB RIDGE. HOURLY READINGS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15F NORTH TO THE LOWER
20S SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...16Z UPDATE...
UPCOMING EVENT WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...UTILIZING THE 8"
24-HOUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT SURE WE`LL SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE
WATCH CURRENTLY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LEANING TOWARDS DOWNGRADE TO
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD
DISTRIBUTION OF QPF...WHICH COULD LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WILL COLLAB WITH PBZ AND BUF AFTER LOOKING AT REST
OF 12Z SUITE TO MAKE FINAL HEADLINE DECISIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...PREVIOUS...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -25F IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NW MTNS AT 11Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND
HILLTOP LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA
AT 12Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID DECK
THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -25F IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NW MTNS AT 11Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND
HILLTOP LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA
AT 12Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID DECK
THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -25F IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NW MTNS AT 11Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND
HILLTOP LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA
AT 12Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID DECK
THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -25F IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NW MTNS AT 11Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND
HILLTOP LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -25F IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NW MTNS AT 11Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND
HILLTOP LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281100
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -20F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS AT 10Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND HILLTOP
LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ANOTHER COUPLE DEG OF COOLING
EXPECTED BTWN 10Z-12Z BEFORE TEMPS START TO REBOUND LATER THIS AM.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281100
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -20F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS AT 10Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND HILLTOP
LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ANOTHER COUPLE DEG OF COOLING
EXPECTED BTWN 10Z-12Z BEFORE TEMPS START TO REBOUND LATER THIS AM.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281100
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -20F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS AT 10Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND HILLTOP
LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ANOTHER COUPLE DEG OF COOLING
EXPECTED BTWN 10Z-12Z BEFORE TEMPS START TO REBOUND LATER THIS AM.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIND HAS GONE CALM ACROSS THE NW MTNS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET
LATE THIS EVENING. AT 05Z...MESONET OBS INDICATE THE COLDER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND -15F. ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...A LIGHT BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WIND AND PLUMMETING READINGS TOWARD DAWN. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A BIT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING FROM ARND -15F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO 0-5F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDS...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM
HILLTOPS/URBAN LOCATIONS TO NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS.

A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS AM IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RAD COOLING. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT
IPT AND -1F AT MDT. EVEN THE -1F AT MDT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIND HAS GONE CALM ACROSS THE NW MTNS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET
LATE THIS EVENING. AT 05Z...MESONET OBS INDICATE THE COLDER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND -15F. ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...A LIGHT BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WIND AND PLUMMETING READINGS TOWARD DAWN. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A BIT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING FROM ARND -15F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO 0-5F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDS...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM
HILLTOPS/URBAN LOCATIONS TO NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS.

A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS AM IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RAD COOLING. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT
IPT AND -1F AT MDT. EVEN THE -1F AT MDT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING
FROM A TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280553
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1253 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIND HAS GONE CALM ACROSS THE NW MTNS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET
LATE THIS EVENING. AT 05Z...MESONET OBS INDICATE THE COLDER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND -15F. ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...A LIGHT BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WIND AND PLUMMETING READINGS TOWARD DAWN. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A BIT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING FROM ARND -15F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO 0-5F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDS...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM
HILLTOPS/URBAN LOCATIONS TO NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS.

A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS AM IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RAD COOLING. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT
IPT AND -1F AT MDT. EVEN THE -1F AT MDT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280553
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1253 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIND HAS GONE CALM ACROSS THE NW MTNS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET
LATE THIS EVENING. AT 05Z...MESONET OBS INDICATE THE COLDER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND -15F. ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...A LIGHT BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WIND AND PLUMMETING READINGS TOWARD DAWN. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A BIT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING FROM ARND -15F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO 0-5F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDS...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM
HILLTOPS/URBAN LOCATIONS TO NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS.

A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS AM IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RAD COOLING. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT
IPT AND -1F AT MDT. EVEN THE -1F AT MDT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280553
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1253 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIND HAS GONE CALM ACROSS THE NW MTNS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET
LATE THIS EVENING. AT 05Z...MESONET OBS INDICATE THE COLDER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND -15F. ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...A LIGHT BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...EXPECT
DIMINISHING WIND AND PLUMMETING READINGS TOWARD DAWN. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A BIT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING FROM ARND -15F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO 0-5F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDS...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS FROM
HILLTOPS/URBAN LOCATIONS TO NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS.

A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS AM IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RAD COOLING. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT
IPT AND -1F AT MDT. EVEN THE -1F AT MDT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280332
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
TEMPS DROPPING OFF NICELY NOW TO FOLLOW THE EARLIER DIP BY
DEWPOINTS. BFD IS -5F AND MESO OBS ALL AROUND MCKEAN COUNTY ARE
-7F TO -14F. ADDITIONALLY...DUJ IS 3F...FIG 7F...AND JST 5F. THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE UP FOR THE TIME BEING
BUT THE HIGH SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON THE TEMPS.

645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280332
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
TEMPS DROPPING OFF NICELY NOW TO FOLLOW THE EARLIER DIP BY
DEWPOINTS. BFD IS -5F AND MESO OBS ALL AROUND MCKEAN COUNTY ARE
-7F TO -14F. ADDITIONALLY...DUJ IS 3F...FIG 7F...AND JST 5F. THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE UP FOR THE TIME BEING
BUT THE HIGH SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON THE TEMPS.

645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280319
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
TEMPS DROPPING OFF NICELY NOW TO FOLLOW THE EARLIER DIP BY
DEWPOINTS. BFD IS -5F AND MESO OBS ALL AROUND MCKEAN COUNTY ARE
-7F TO -14F. ADDITIONALLY...DUJ IS 3F...FIG 7F...AND JST 5F. THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE UP FOR THE TIME BEING
BUT THE HIGH SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON THE TEMPS.

645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280319
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
TEMPS DROPPING OFF NICELY NOW TO FOLLOW THE EARLIER DIP BY
DEWPOINTS. BFD IS -5F AND MESO OBS ALL AROUND MCKEAN COUNTY ARE
-7F TO -14F. ADDITIONALLY...DUJ IS 3F...FIG 7F...AND JST 5F. THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP EVERYONE ELSE UP FOR THE TIME BEING
BUT THE HIGH SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON THE TEMPS.

645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH WILL
BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280032
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280032
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280032
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280032
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST...BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
RAIN IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE NOT QUITE OVERHEAD
BUT MAY BE BY 12Z. THE WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHTER. ONLY THIN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HEADED
DOWNWARD FAST WITHOUT MELTING/EVAP FROM THE SUNLIGHT. ALL THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE NWRN MTNS AND SUB- ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. REC MIN FOR THE 28TH IS -18F AT IPT AND ONLY -1F
AT MDT. MDT LOOKS RIPE...BUT WON/T GO QUITE THAT COLD - YET. WILL
REVISIT IN 3 HOURS.

PREV...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS O/O FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS NEW
TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT TODAY
2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...AND SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SRN PA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...GENERALLY VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS O/O FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS NEW
TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT TODAY
2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS O/O FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS NEW
TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT TODAY
2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...DANGELO
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS O/O FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS NEW
TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT TODAY
2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...DANGELO
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS O/O FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS NEW
TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT TODAY
2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...DANGELO
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS
INTO THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...GENERALLY VFR W/ NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CENTRAL AND SRN PA.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...EVANEGO
CLIMATE...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272047
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272047
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.
TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NRN AND
SRN STREAMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF IT RAIN...FOR A CHANGE.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A
TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT QP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL
PA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOST 5 COUNTIES STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER NRN/SRN STREAM COMBO LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK
AS ENERGY FROM THE SRN CAL UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EWD. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A LEAN TOWARD
RAIN AS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING
TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...CTP




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...CTP




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...CTP





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY THIN SCT STRATO CU REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY
DUSK...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...CTP





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271658
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING VIS SATL AND RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT ONLY AREAS OF
SHALLOW SCT-BKN STRATO CU REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
EARLIER...HIGHLY-LOCALIZED AND ENHANCED AREAS OF FGEN SNOWS
QUICKLY DISSIPATED BETWEEN 12-14Z.

EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL FROM THE COLD SHALLOW STRATO CU
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS SE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY DUSK...FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271658
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING VIS SATL AND RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT ONLY AREAS OF
SHALLOW SCT-BKN STRATO CU REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
EARLIER...HIGHLY-LOCALIZED AND ENHANCED AREAS OF FGEN SNOWS
QUICKLY DISSIPATED BETWEEN 12-14Z.

EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL FROM THE COLD SHALLOW STRATO CU
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS SE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY DUSK...FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271658
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING VIS SATL AND RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT ONLY AREAS OF
SHALLOW SCT-BKN STRATO CU REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
EARLIER...HIGHLY-LOCALIZED AND ENHANCED AREAS OF FGEN SNOWS
QUICKLY DISSIPATED BETWEEN 12-14Z.

EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL FROM THE COLD SHALLOW STRATO CU
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS SE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY DUSK...FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271658
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING VIS SATL AND RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT ONLY AREAS OF
SHALLOW SCT-BKN STRATO CU REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
EARLIER...HIGHLY-LOCALIZED AND ENHANCED AREAS OF FGEN SNOWS
QUICKLY DISSIPATED BETWEEN 12-14Z.

EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL FROM THE COLD SHALLOW STRATO CU
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS SE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CLEAR OUT MOST OR ALL OF THE STRATO CU BY DUSK...FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS /IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS/ WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE MAINLY W/NW AT
7-10 KTS.

EXPECT WIDSPREAD VFR AFTER DUSK WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
SNOW EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SERN
PENN...AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE
STATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM KUNV SEWRD INTO
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROF...AS DRIER
ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM SHOULD FILL BACK
IN WITH COLD POOL STRATOCU MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALSO
KEEPING LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN KJST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE OR TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM KUNV SEWRD INTO
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROF...AS DRIER
ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM SHOULD FILL BACK
IN WITH COLD POOL STRATOCU MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALSO
KEEPING LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN KJST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE OR TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SC MTNS OF PA AT 09Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS
THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW WILL REMAIN ALONG WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF
EXTENDING FROM KUNV SE TO KTHV. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM
NAM SUPPORT A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THIS AREA BTWN 09Z-13Z. SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS AM...AS
DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL
CLEARING PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS
MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270800
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270800
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
926 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING
VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE AT WORST. HRRR AGREES IN JUST
NUISANCE ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH IF ANY AT ALL...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE OR LESS OFF AND ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
926 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING
VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE AT WORST. HRRR AGREES IN JUST
NUISANCE ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH IF ANY AT ALL...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE OR LESS OFF AND ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262120
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAURELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHTER SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPS AND FALLS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT220
CORRIDOR.

ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A LIGHT COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AS WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MEAN THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAURELS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...TRANSFORMS TO FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED -SHSN TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH
TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...CTP





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262120
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAURELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHTER SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPS AND FALLS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT220
CORRIDOR.

ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A LIGHT COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AS WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MEAN THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAURELS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...TRANSFORMS TO FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED -SHSN TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH
TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...CTP




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