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000
FXUS61 KCTP 300400
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADY SNOW ASSOC WITH LL JET/WAA
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL PA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP OVR WESTERN PA AT 00Z...WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE CWA BTWN
00Z-06Z. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR
THE S TIER COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSCD WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TO PASS LATER TONIGHT...HAS MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
SECONDARY AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. OBSERVED CONDS LINE UP LINE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL
FLOW...WITH IFR IN THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...MVFR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND VFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
08-11Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300400
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADY SNOW ASSOC WITH LL JET/WAA
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL PA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP OVR WESTERN PA AT 00Z...WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE CWA BTWN
00Z-06Z. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR
THE S TIER COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSCD WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TO PASS LATER TONIGHT...HAS MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
SECONDARY AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. OBSERVED CONDS LINE UP LINE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL
FLOW...WITH IFR IN THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...MVFR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND VFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
08-11Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z. BACK EDGE OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE/SIG PRECIP W/THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS AT 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE IT WILL BE EXITING
THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARND 06Z. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINT WX
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE LATEST HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS NOW LOOK TOO COLD TO SUPPORT FZRA. WILL
MENTION ONLY SCT -SHSN IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOC WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU
LATE MORNING...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS. MDL-BLENDED QPF
SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BTWN
03Z-12Z OF ARND 1 INCH. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THRU THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 04Z-05Z AND
EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 07Z-08Z.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z. BACK EDGE OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE/SIG PRECIP W/THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS AT 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE IT WILL BE EXITING
THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARND 06Z. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINT WX
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE LATEST HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS NOW LOOK TOO COLD TO SUPPORT FZRA. WILL
MENTION ONLY SCT -SHSN IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOC WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU
LATE MORNING...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS. MDL-BLENDED QPF
SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BTWN
03Z-12Z OF ARND 1 INCH. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THRU THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 04Z-05Z AND
EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 07Z-08Z.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
713 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADY SNOW ASSOC WITH LL JET/WAA
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL PA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP OVR WESTERN PA AT 00Z...WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE CWA BTWN
00Z-06Z. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR
THE S TIER COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
713 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADY SNOW ASSOC WITH LL JET/WAA
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL PA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP OVR WESTERN PA AT 00Z...WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE CWA BTWN
00Z-06Z. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR
THE S TIER COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP WORKING INTO WESTERN
PA THIS EVENING. WAA ALONG AXIS OF SOUTHERLY LL JET PRODUCING SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 22Z. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT
HAS WORKED INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TURNING PRECIP TO FZRA FROM
S CLEARFIELD COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO CONTINUE THRU
LATE EVENING...AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR THE S TIER
COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM MDL DATA TIMES THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/SIG
PRECIP INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARND 03Z AND THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY ARND 06Z.

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THESE COULD BE A TAD TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR LOOP WORKING INTO WESTERN
PA THIS EVENING. WAA ALONG AXIS OF SOUTHERLY LL JET PRODUCING SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 22Z. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT
HAS WORKED INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TURNING PRECIP TO FZRA FROM
S CLEARFIELD COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT OCNL LGT SNOW TO CONTINUE THRU
LATE EVENING...AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROLLS THRU. OVR THE S TIER
COUNTIES...LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT FOR SOME LGT FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM MDL DATA TIMES THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/SIG
PRECIP INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARND 03Z AND THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY ARND 06Z.

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WITH A
WINT WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER. OVERALL REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MTNS ARND
03Z AND THE EASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY
SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THESE COULD BE A TAD TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER.
OVERALL REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS ON TRACK AND SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO BE
ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY 18-19Z. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SO WE PUT AN
ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WARM AIR
SURGING IN ALOFT TODAY...THEN BEING PINCHED OFF QUICKLY AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS AND THE COLUMN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS. HOWEVER...THE
RAP/HRRR HOURLY DATA SHOW THE WARM AIR ACTUALLY PUSHING BACK NORTH
BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER THE SWRN ZONES...COMPLICATING THE PRECIP TYPE
SCENARIO FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER
COUNTIES.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY 4-STAR SNOW AT MEADVILLE
WITH MODERATE SNOW OVER NERN OHIO UP INTO ERIE.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN PA JUST AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH MY EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THESE COULD BE A TAD TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER.
OVERALL REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS ON TRACK AND SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO BE
ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY 18-19Z. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SO WE PUT AN
ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WARM AIR
SURGING IN ALOFT TODAY...THEN BEING PINCHED OFF QUICKLY AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS AND THE COLUMN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS. HOWEVER...THE
RAP/HRRR HOURLY DATA SHOW THE WARM AIR ACTUALLY PUSHING BACK NORTH
BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER THE SWRN ZONES...COMPLICATING THE PRECIP TYPE
SCENARIO FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER
COUNTIES.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY 4-STAR SNOW AT MEADVILLE
WITH MODERATE SNOW OVER NERN OHIO UP INTO ERIE.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN PA JUST AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH MY EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THESE COULD BE A TAD TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291826
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER.
OVERALL REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS ON TRACK AND SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO BE
ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY 18-19Z. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SO WE PUT AN
ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WARM AIR
SURGING IN ALOFT TODAY...THEN BEING PINCHED OFF QUICKLY AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS AND THE COLUMN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS. HOWEVER...THE
RAP/HRRR HOURLY DATA SHOW THE WARM AIR ACTUALLY PUSHING BACK NORTH
BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER THE SWRN ZONES...COMPLICATING THE PRECIP TYPE
SCENARIO FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER
COUNTIES.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY 4-STAR SNOW AT MEADVILLE
WITH MODERATE SNOW OVER NERN OHIO UP INTO ERIE.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN PA JUST AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH MY EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THESE COULD BE A TAD TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291826
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER.
OVERALL REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF NUISANCE-TYPE ICING.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS ON TRACK AND SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO BE
ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY 18-19Z. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SO WE PUT AN
ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WARM AIR
SURGING IN ALOFT TODAY...THEN BEING PINCHED OFF QUICKLY AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS AND THE COLUMN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS. HOWEVER...THE
RAP/HRRR HOURLY DATA SHOW THE WARM AIR ACTUALLY PUSHING BACK NORTH
BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER THE SWRN ZONES...COMPLICATING THE PRECIP TYPE
SCENARIO FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER
COUNTIES.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY 4-STAR SNOW AT MEADVILLE
WITH MODERATE SNOW OVER NERN OHIO UP INTO ERIE.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN PA JUST AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH MY EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THESE COULD BE A TAD TOO HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ025>028-
034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE
MORNING...WITH THE FIRST PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER
FAR WESTERN PA IN THE FORM OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO BE ENTERING MY
WESTERN ZONES BY 18Z/1PM. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT THE ONSET...EVEN OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS
LOOK REASONABLE AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TRACE OF
ICE...BUT IF IT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE EVENING COMMUTE UNTREATED
ROADS COULD POSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. AT THIS STAGE WE PLAN TO HANDLE
THIS EXPECTED BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND NOWCASTS...AND WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED
FOR A HEADLINE PRODUCT.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
BRIEFLY MDT SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WARM AIR SURGING IN ALOFT
TODAY...THEN BEING PINCHED OFF QUICKLY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS AND THE
COLUMN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS. HOWEVER...THE RAP/HRRR HOURLY DATA
SHOW THE WARM AIR ACTUALLY PUSHING BACK NORTH BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER
THE SWRN ZONES...WHICH IF IT COINCIDES WITH ONGOING PRECIP WILL
COMPLICATE THE PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO OVER THE LAURELS AND SOME
MARYLAND BORDER COUNTIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTRY MIX IS THE
LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME AT THIS POINT.


REST FROM EARLIER...

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED TO A LARGE
DEGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY OF THE STATE WILL 1-2 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY RECEIVE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0NE INCH. A BIT OF SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY ICE
FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE RATHER SHALLOW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT DRIFTS EAST.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE INCREASING/BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE BRUNT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MDT SNOW
LIKELY AS ONE OR MORE N/S BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB UVVEL
CROSSES THE REGION. 03Z SREF INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
/2-3 SIGMA/ 850MB MOISTURE FLUX AND SIMILARLY ANOMALOUS /50 KT/
SWRLY LLJ WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES PENN BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z FRI.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...PUSHES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 07-09Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACRS THE
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE CFROPA WILL KNOCK THESE VALUES DOWN
BY A FEW DEG F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE FLYING AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN BRADFORD. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST
18-00Z.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE 09-12Z
OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR/IFR INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE
MORNING...WITH THE FIRST PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER
FAR WESTERN PA IN THE FORM OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO BE ENTERING MY
WESTERN ZONES BY 18Z/1PM. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT THE ONSET...EVEN OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS
LOOK REASONABLE AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TRACE OF
ICE...BUT IF IT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE EVENING COMMUTE UNTREATED
ROADS COULD POSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. AT THIS STAGE WE PLAN TO HANDLE
THIS EXPECTED BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND NOWCASTS...AND WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED
FOR A HEADLINE PRODUCT.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
BRIEFLY MDT SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WARM AIR SURGING IN ALOFT
TODAY...THEN BEING PINCHED OFF QUICKLY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS AND THE
COLUMN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS. HOWEVER...THE RAP/HRRR HOURLY DATA
SHOW THE WARM AIR ACTUALLY PUSHING BACK NORTH BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER
THE SWRN ZONES...WHICH IF IT COINCIDES WITH ONGOING PRECIP WILL
COMPLICATE THE PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO OVER THE LAURELS AND SOME
MARYLAND BORDER COUNTIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTRY MIX IS THE
LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME AT THIS POINT.


REST FROM EARLIER...

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED TO A LARGE
DEGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY OF THE STATE WILL 1-2 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY RECEIVE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0NE INCH. A BIT OF SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY ICE
FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE RATHER SHALLOW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT DRIFTS EAST.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE INCREASING/BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE BRUNT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MDT SNOW
LIKELY AS ONE OR MORE N/S BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB UVVEL
CROSSES THE REGION. 03Z SREF INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
/2-3 SIGMA/ 850MB MOISTURE FLUX AND SIMILARLY ANOMALOUS /50 KT/
SWRLY LLJ WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES PENN BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z FRI.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...PUSHES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 07-09Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACRS THE
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE CFROPA WILL KNOCK THESE VALUES DOWN
BY A FEW DEG F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE FLYING AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN BRADFORD. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST
18-00Z.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 06Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE 09-12Z
OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR/IFR INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THIS FAST MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THICKENING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PENN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES ARE STILL MCLEAR ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND
AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWED TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP AS LOW AS -4 TO
-7F ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. TEMPS
THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW DEG F OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AS THE
THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS NEARING
MINS /IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS/ ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
ATTM. A FEW REPORTS BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED AT KSEG /-1F/ AND AT
MANSFIELD IN TIOGA COUNTY /-8F/.

THE LOWERING/THICKENING...MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH A KELZ TO
KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 12Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE BONE DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH
13Z.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS/GEFS...ALONG WITH THE 21-03Z SREF ALL
AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INITIALLY VERY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING COLUMN /ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN/
QUICKLY COOLING TO A FEW DEG C BELOW ZERO ONCE PRECIP STARTS...SO
THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED TO A LARGE DEGREE WITH RESPECT
TO THE QPF FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GENERAL
2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY OF THE
STATE WILL 1-2 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WHILE COUNTIES
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY RECEIVE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0NE
INCH. A BIT OF SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY ICE FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
THE RATHER SHALLOW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT DRIFTS EAST.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE INCREASING/BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE BRUNT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MDT SNOW
LIKELY AS ONE OR MORE N/S BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB UVVEL
CROSSES THE REGION. 03Z SREF INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
/2-3 SIGMA/ 850MB MOISTURE FLUX AND SIMILARLY ANOMALOUS /50 KT/
SWRLY LLJ WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES PENN BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z FRI.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...PUSHES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 07-09Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACRS THE
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE CFROPA WILL KNOCK THESE VALUES DOWN
BY A FEW DEG F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS THE SNOW WILL START AROUND
MID DAY OVER WESTERN TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TERMINALS BEGINNING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 19Z TO 00Z AND DECREASING
RAPIDLY FROM MVFR TO IFR.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AROUND 06Z
FRIDAY...THOUGH MVFR COULD CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THIS FAST MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THICKENING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PENN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES ARE STILL MCLEAR ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND
AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWED TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP AS LOW AS -4 TO
-7F ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. TEMPS
THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW DEG F OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AS THE
THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS NEARING
MINS /IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS/ ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
ATTM. A FEW REPORTS BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED AT KSEG /-1F/ AND AT
MANSFIELD IN TIOGA COUNTY /-8F/.

THE LOWERING/THICKENING...MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH A KELZ TO
KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 12Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE BONE DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH
13Z.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS/GEFS...ALONG WITH THE 21-03Z SREF ALL
AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INITIALLY VERY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING COLUMN /ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN/
QUICKLY COOLING TO A FEW DEG C BELOW ZERO ONCE PRECIP STARTS...SO
THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED TO A LARGE DEGREE WITH RESPECT
TO THE QPF FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GENERAL
2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY OF THE
STATE WILL 1-2 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WHILE COUNTIES
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY RECEIVE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0NE
INCH. A BIT OF SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY ICE FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
THE RATHER SHALLOW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT DRIFTS EAST.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE INCREASING/BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE BRUNT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MDT SNOW
LIKELY AS ONE OR MORE N/S BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB UVVEL
CROSSES THE REGION. 03Z SREF INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
/2-3 SIGMA/ 850MB MOISTURE FLUX AND SIMILARLY ANOMALOUS /50 KT/
SWRLY LLJ WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES PENN BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z FRI.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...PUSHES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 07-09Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACRS THE
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE CFROPA WILL KNOCK THESE VALUES DOWN
BY A FEW DEG F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS THE SNOW WILL START AROUND
MID DAY OVER WESTERN TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TERMINALS BEGINNING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 19Z TO 00Z AND DECREASING
RAPIDLY FROM MVFR TO IFR.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AROUND 06Z
FRIDAY...THOUGH MVFR COULD CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291028
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THIS FAST MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THICKENING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PENN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES ARE STILL MCLEAR ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND
AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWED TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP AS LOW AS -4 TO
-7F ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. TEMPS
THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW DEG F OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AS THE
THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS NEARING
MINS /IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS/ ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
ATTM. A FEW REPORTS BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED AT KSEG /-1F/ AND AT
MANSFIELD IN TIOGA COUNTY /-8F/.

THE LOWERING/THICKENING...MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH A KELZ TO
KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 12Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE BONE DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH
13Z.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS/GEFS...ALONG WITH THE 21-03Z SREF ALL
AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INITIALLY VERY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING COLUMN /ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN/
QUICKLY COOLING TO A FEW DEG C BELOW ZERO ONCE PRECIP STARTS...SO
THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED TO A LARGE DEGREE WITH RESPECT
TO THE QPF FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GENERAL
2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY OF THE
STATE WILL 1-2 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WHILE COUNTIES
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY RECEIVE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0NE
INCH. A BIT OF SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY ICE FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
THE RATHER SHALLOW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT DRIFTS EAST.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE INCREASING/BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE BRUNT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MDT SNOW
LIKELY AS ONE OR MORE N/S BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB UVVEL
CROSSES THE REGION. 03Z SREF INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
/2-3 SIGMA/ 850MB MOISTURE FLUX AND SIMILARLY ANOMALOUS /50 KT/
SWRLY LLJ WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES PENN BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z FRI.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...PUSHES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 07-09Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACRS THE
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE CFROPA WILL KNOCK THESE VALUES DOWN
BY A FEW DEG F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MVFR VSBYS AT BFD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291028
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. THIS FAST MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THICKENING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PENN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES ARE STILL MCLEAR ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND
AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWED TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP AS LOW AS -4 TO
-7F ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. TEMPS
THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW DEG F OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AS THE
THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS NEARING
MINS /IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS/ ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
ATTM. A FEW REPORTS BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED AT KSEG /-1F/ AND AT
MANSFIELD IN TIOGA COUNTY /-8F/.

THE LOWERING/THICKENING...MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH A KELZ TO
KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 12Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE BONE DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH
13Z.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

00-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS/GEFS...ALONG WITH THE 21-03Z SREF ALL
AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INITIALLY VERY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING COLUMN /ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN/
QUICKLY COOLING TO A FEW DEG C BELOW ZERO ONCE PRECIP STARTS...SO
THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS UNCHANGED TO A LARGE DEGREE WITH RESPECT
TO THE QPF FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GENERAL
2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY OF THE
STATE WILL 1-2 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WHILE COUNTIES
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY RECEIVE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0NE
INCH. A BIT OF SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY ICE FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
THE RATHER SHALLOW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT DRIFTS EAST.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING
IN THE INCREASING/BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE BRUNT OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MDT SNOW
LIKELY AS ONE OR MORE N/S BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB UVVEL
CROSSES THE REGION. 03Z SREF INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
/2-3 SIGMA/ 850MB MOISTURE FLUX AND SIMILARLY ANOMALOUS /50 KT/
SWRLY LLJ WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES PENN BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z FRI.

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...PUSHES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 07-09Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACRS THE
WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING OF THE CFROPA WILL KNOCK THESE VALUES DOWN
BY A FEW DEG F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS CREATING A WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY....AND 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE
DOWN. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MVFR VSBYS AT BFD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290726
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
THIS FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW PERIODS OF
SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DIP AS LOW AS -4 TO -7F ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN
AND POTTER COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS
NWRN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS SHOULD BE NEAR THEIR MINS /AND
RISE SLOWLY TWD DAYBREAK/ AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM THE
WEST...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND DAYBREAK.

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER SEVERAL DEG F ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WHERE ONLY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE.

UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY
VARYING MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME
TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS...TO
ARND 10 ABV ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LOWERING/THICKENING MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH A KELZ TO KUNV AND
KMRB LINE AROUND 12Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE BONE DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH
13Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING IN THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MVFR VSBYS AT BFD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290726
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TODAY...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THICKEN UP AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
THIS FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW PERIODS OF
SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DIP AS LOW AS -4 TO -7F ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN
AND POTTER COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS
NWRN PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS SHOULD BE NEAR THEIR MINS /AND
RISE SLOWLY TWD DAYBREAK/ AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM THE
WEST...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND DAYBREAK.

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER SEVERAL DEG F ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WHERE ONLY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE.

UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY
VARYING MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME
TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS...TO
ARND 10 ABV ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LOWERING/THICKENING MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL REACH A KELZ TO KUNV AND
KMRB LINE AROUND 12Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE BONE DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH
13Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING IN THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MVFR VSBYS AT BFD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290703
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
203 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 03Z. BASED ON AFTERNOON DWPTS
AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT...EXPECT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY VARYING
MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME
TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 10 ABV ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MVFR VSBYS AT BFD.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 03Z. BASED ON AFTERNOON DWPTS
AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT...EXPECT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY VARYING
MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME
TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 10 ABV ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 03Z. BASED ON AFTERNOON DWPTS
AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT...EXPECT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UNDER SUCH AN IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO...EXPECT WIDELY VARYING
MIN TEMPS...WITH 15F DIFFERENCES LIKELY WITHIN THE SAME
TOWNSHIPS. HAVE TRIED TO SETTLE ON AVG LOWS...WHICH WILL LKLY
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 10 ABV ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290235
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
935 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 01Z. THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER AVG LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290235
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
935 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 01Z. THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER AVG LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT....BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 01Z. THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER AVG LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 01Z. THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER AVG LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 01Z. THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER AVG LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MESONET SHOWS SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE N MTNS AS OF 01Z. THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY DIP TO BTWN ZERO AND 10BLW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER AVG LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WAA ALOFT AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN...RESULTING
IN RISING TEMPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282028
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BRIGHT MID WINTER SUN HAS HELPED TEMPS REBOUND SOMEWHAT FROM THE
VERY CHILLY EARLY MORNING READINGS. SKIES WILL REMAIN BASICALLY
CLEAR WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS BEGINS.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO MY NWRN ZONES BY EARLY
THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE
SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282028
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BRIGHT MID WINTER SUN HAS HELPED TEMPS REBOUND SOMEWHAT FROM THE
VERY CHILLY EARLY MORNING READINGS. SKIES WILL REMAIN BASICALLY
CLEAR WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS BEGINS.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO MY NWRN ZONES BY EARLY
THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE
SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE LATER THU AFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN EARLY...BUT UPWARD MOTION OFFSETS THE WARMING.
FCST TEMPS AT BUF COOLER NOW THAN YESTERDAY. THUS THINK MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW 32 ON THU. SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM THE PLAINS. IT WAS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY...WARM THERE TODAY TOO.

SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPS
SE. IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

A BRIGHT DAY ON SAT...BUT NOT REAL WARM.

STILL HAVE CHC POPS ON SUNDAY. A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z MODELS BACKING OFF SOME NOW. PATTERN
SUPPORTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE FAST MOVING AND WEAK. WOULD
STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW FOR MID WEEK...FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHC POPS.

MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281838
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BRIGHT MID WINTER SUN HAS HELPED TEMPS REBOUND SOMEWHAT FROM THE
VERY CHILLY EARLY MORNING READINGS. SKIES WILL REMAIN BASICALLY
CLEAR WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS BEGINS.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO MY NWRN ZONES BY EARLY
THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE
SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281445
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS OVER SWRN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AND MIX OUT
LEAVING ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR OVER SWRN AREAS
EARLY WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID DAY. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH BREEZIEST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
SUSQ WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO MID AFTN.

ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSS TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MIDDAY.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281445
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS OVER SWRN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AND MIX OUT
LEAVING ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR OVER SWRN AREAS
EARLY WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID DAY. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH BREEZIEST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
SUSQ WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO MID AFTN.

ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSS TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MIDDAY.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT...PRECEDED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WELL
BELOW ZERO /AT -6 TO -11F/ WITH NEARLY CALM AIR...WHILE THE RIDGE
TOPS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ELSEWHERE...READINGS RANGED FROM ABOUT 10-17F
WITH A 5-10 KT WEST TO NW WIND.

A VERY LIGHT BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS
LOW AS -14 TO -16F. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW
APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE SW FROM
KFIG-KJST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
OUT AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NW
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO
MID AFTN.

ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSS TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MIDDAY.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT...PRECEDED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WELL
BELOW ZERO /AT -6 TO -11F/ WITH NEARLY CALM AIR...WHILE THE RIDGE
TOPS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ELSEWHERE...READINGS RANGED FROM ABOUT 10-17F
WITH A 5-10 KT WEST TO NW WIND.

A VERY LIGHT BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS
LOW AS -14 TO -16F. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW
APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE SW FROM
KFIG-KJST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
OUT AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NW
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO
MID AFTN.

ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSS TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MIDDAY.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT...PRECEDED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WELL
BELOW ZERO /AT -6 TO -11F/ WITH NEARLY CALM AIR...WHILE THE RIDGE
TOPS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ELSEWHERE...READINGS RANGED FROM ABOUT 10-17F
WITH A 5-10 KT WEST TO NW WIND.

A VERY LIGHT BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS
LOW AS -14 TO -16F. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW
APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT...PRECEDED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WELL
BELOW ZERO /AT -6 TO -11F/ WITH NEARLY CALM AIR...WHILE THE RIDGE
TOPS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ELSEWHERE...READINGS RANGED FROM ABOUT 10-17F
WITH A 5-10 KT WEST TO NW WIND.

A VERY LIGHT BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS
LOW AS -14 TO -16F. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW
APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280646
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
SLOWLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN PENN
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW ZERO...WITH ONE LOCATIONS JUST SE OF
COUDERSPORT AT -8F...AND A FEW OBSERVING SITES AROUND THE CITY OF
BRADFORD AT -3F AND -5F.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MODIFICATION FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -9F AND EVEN
A VERY LIGHT BREEZE LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW
AS -14 TO -16F. SINCE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

ELSEWHERE...THE 5-10 KT SUSTAINED WIND /WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND WRN POCONOS/ WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER MIN TEMPS - IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280646
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
SLOWLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN PENN
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW ZERO...WITH ONE LOCATIONS JUST SE OF
COUDERSPORT AT -8F...AND A FEW OBSERVING SITES AROUND THE CITY OF
BRADFORD AT -3F AND -5F.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MODIFICATION FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -9F AND EVEN
A VERY LIGHT BREEZE LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW
AS -14 TO -16F. SINCE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

ELSEWHERE...THE 5-10 KT SUSTAINED WIND /WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND WRN POCONOS/ WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER MIN TEMPS - IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280646
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
SLOWLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN PENN
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW ZERO...WITH ONE LOCATIONS JUST SE OF
COUDERSPORT AT -8F...AND A FEW OBSERVING SITES AROUND THE CITY OF
BRADFORD AT -3F AND -5F.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MODIFICATION FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -9F AND EVEN
A VERY LIGHT BREEZE LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW
AS -14 TO -16F. SINCE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

ELSEWHERE...THE 5-10 KT SUSTAINED WIND /WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND WRN POCONOS/ WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER MIN TEMPS - IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280646
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
SLOWLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN PENN
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BELOW ZERO...WITH ONE LOCATIONS JUST SE OF
COUDERSPORT AT -8F...AND A FEW OBSERVING SITES AROUND THE CITY OF
BRADFORD AT -3F AND -5F.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MODIFICATION FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -9F AND EVEN
A VERY LIGHT BREEZE LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW
AS -14 TO -16F. SINCE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

ELSEWHERE...THE 5-10 KT SUSTAINED WIND /WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND WRN POCONOS/ WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER MIN TEMPS - IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280440
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280440
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KJST
REMAINS SUB VFR LATE THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS SOMERSET CO AS OF 03Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT K2G4 OF 3SM
SUGGESTS ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING AT
BEST.

03Z IR LOOP SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOMERSET CO ARND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
THE MOST EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 ARND 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

01Z IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
FROM COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS
COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 ARND 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

01Z IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
FROM COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS
COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONLY KBFD
REMAINS SUB VFR THIS EVE WITH UPSLOPE CIGS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE STATE BY AFTN. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL COVER MOST TAF
SITES...SAVE FOR THE KMDT AND KLNS WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 ARND 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

01Z IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
FROM COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS
COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 ARND 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

01Z IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
FROM COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS
COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 23Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 AT 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED
TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

EARLY EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY ADVECTING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND ANY
FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE N MTNS...AND THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 23Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 AT 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE LIMITED
TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

EARLY EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY ADVECTING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND ANY
FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE N MTNS...AND THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DID ADJUST WEATHER AND POPS SOME INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS
THERE IS STILL SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...AND A FEW
WEAK RADAR RETURNS TO THE EAST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST TO COVER THESE INTO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...AND
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO INCREASING NE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH INTO TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE`LL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WED 12Z REACHES SOUTHWEST PA BY
00Z THU...BRINGING RELAXING GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
IMPROVING CONDS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO START THE DAY. MAXES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER
IN THE S...RANGING FROM LOWER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL...HELPING MELT SOME
SNOW IN PARKING LOTS ETC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DID ADJUST WEATHER AND POPS SOME INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS
THERE IS STILL SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...AND A FEW
WEAK RADAR RETURNS TO THE EAST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST TO COVER THESE INTO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...AND
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO INCREASING NE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH INTO TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE`LL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WED 12Z REACHES SOUTHWEST PA BY
00Z THU...BRINGING RELAXING GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
IMPROVING CONDS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO START THE DAY. MAXES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER
IN THE S...RANGING FROM LOWER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL...HELPING MELT SOME
SNOW IN PARKING LOTS ETC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271913
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST TO COVER THESE INTO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...AND
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO INCREASING NE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH INTO TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE`LL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WED 12Z REACHES SOUTHWEST PA BY
00Z THU...BRINGING RELAXING GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
IMPROVING CONDS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO START THE DAY. MAXES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER
IN THE S...RANGING FROM LOWER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM KFIG WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BRING VFR TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AS
N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271913
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST TO COVER THESE INTO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...AND
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO INCREASING NE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH INTO TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE`LL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WED 12Z REACHES SOUTHWEST PA BY
00Z THU...BRINGING RELAXING GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
IMPROVING CONDS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO START THE DAY. MAXES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER
IN THE S...RANGING FROM LOWER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM KFIG WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BRING VFR TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AS
N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271602
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
SNOWBANDS ARE BRUSHING SCHUYLKILL AND LEBANON COUNTIES...AND NE
WIND GUSTS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING...WHICH IS CREATING SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASING BLOWING AND
LOCAL DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ON EXPOSED ROADWAYS NEAR
OPEN FIELDS IN PARTICULAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC
POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE NE. REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE FROM KFIG WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SNOW
GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BRING
VFR TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271602
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
SNOWBANDS ARE BRUSHING SCHUYLKILL AND LEBANON COUNTIES...AND NE
WIND GUSTS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING...WHICH IS CREATING SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASING BLOWING AND
LOCAL DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ON EXPOSED ROADWAYS NEAR
OPEN FIELDS IN PARTICULAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC
POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE NE. REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE FROM KFIG WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SNOW
GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BRING
VFR TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
655 AM UPDATE...
WINTER WX ADVY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE NATURALLY AT 7 AM.

PREV...
COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS
SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN
PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR
INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS
AND PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE NE. REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE FROM KUNV WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SNOW
GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BRING VFR TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AS N/NW FLOW
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
655 AM UPDATE...
WINTER WX ADVY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE NATURALLY AT 7 AM.

PREV...
COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS
SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN
PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR
INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS
AND PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE NE. REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE FROM KUNV WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SNOW
GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BRING VFR TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AS N/NW FLOW
INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
655 AM UPDATE...
WINTER WX ADVY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE NATURALLY AT 7 AM.

PREV...
COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS
SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN
PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR
INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS
AND PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WWX ADVY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7AM...AND WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
ON TIME.

COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS
SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN
PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR
INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS
AND PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WWX ADVY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7AM...AND WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
ON TIME.

COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS
SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN
PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR
INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS
AND PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270734
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WESTERN BAND IS SHRIVELING UP...BUT EASTERN BAND IS STILL
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER...IT TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK UP/DIMINISH BY MORNING. ADDTNL ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT BAND AND NEARBY - SO WILL HOLD THE ADVY FOR A BIT.
ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO JUST WIPE IT ALTOGETHER IN A FEW
HOURS IF RADAR TREND IS STEADY DOWNWARD AND ACCUMS ARE AS LIGHT AS
EXPECTED. WHILE SCT SHSN MAY BACK IN FROM THE EAST...THE
PROBABILITY OF THAT IS VERY LOW AND ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE JUST A
DUSTING EVEN IF THEY DO. IN COLLAB WITH PHI...HAVE DROPPED LANC CO
FROM THE ADVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ALL BUT OVER TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270734
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WESTERN BAND IS SHRIVELING UP...BUT EASTERN BAND IS STILL
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER...IT TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK UP/DIMINISH BY MORNING. ADDTNL ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT BAND AND NEARBY - SO WILL HOLD THE ADVY FOR A BIT.
ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO JUST WIPE IT ALTOGETHER IN A FEW
HOURS IF RADAR TREND IS STEADY DOWNWARD AND ACCUMS ARE AS LIGHT AS
EXPECTED. WHILE SCT SHSN MAY BACK IN FROM THE EAST...THE
PROBABILITY OF THAT IS VERY LOW AND ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE JUST A
DUSTING EVEN IF THEY DO. IN COLLAB WITH PHI...HAVE DROPPED LANC CO
FROM THE ADVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ALL BUT OVER TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




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