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000
FXUS61 KCTP 070923
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST SERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAS
PRODUCED STRATUS AND/OR FOG OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM.
CURRENT OBS...AS WELL AS LATEST SREF...HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIFR AT KBFD THRU 12Z WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT. LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD MORE FAVORABLE CIGS
EARLY THIS AM IN THE 3-4KFT RANGE. A SOUTHERLY /DOWNSLOPING/ FLOW
AT KJST SUGGESTS PREDOMINATELY MVFR OR BETTER CONDS ARE LIKELY
THERE EARLY THIS AM.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BTWN 12Z-14Z BASED ON MDL
SOUNDINGS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KJST/KBFD. HOWEVER...ODDS OF
EVEN A BRIEF REDUCTION APPEARS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

MON...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070923
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST SERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAS
PRODUCED STRATUS AND/OR FOG OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM.
CURRENT OBS...AS WELL AS LATEST SREF...HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIFR AT KBFD THRU 12Z WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT. LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD MORE FAVORABLE CIGS
EARLY THIS AM IN THE 3-4KFT RANGE. A SOUTHERLY /DOWNSLOPING/ FLOW
AT KJST SUGGESTS PREDOMINATELY MVFR OR BETTER CONDS ARE LIKELY
THERE EARLY THIS AM.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BTWN 12Z-14Z BASED ON MDL
SOUNDINGS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KJST/KBFD. HOWEVER...ODDS OF
EVEN A BRIEF REDUCTION APPEARS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

MON...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070642
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTIAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND AND WET
GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S RAIN...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT OBS...AS WELL AS LATEST SREF...HRRR AND LAMP
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIFR AT KBFD
THRU 12Z. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATUS WILL COMPLICATE THE FCST BY
HOLDING TEMPS UP AND DIMINISHING THE FOG POTENTIAL IN SPOTS. WILL
RELY ON BLEND OF SREF AND LATEST HRRR...WHICH PLACE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS FROM KAOO/KUNV/KIPT NWRD...WITH ONLY A
SLIM CHANCE OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS. THE TOPOGRAPHY OF KJST
/ON THE RIDGETOP/ IS UNFAVORABLE FOR RADATION FOG AND SUGGESTS
PREDOMINATELY MVFR OR BETTER CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE EARLY THIS AM.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BTWN 12Z-14Z BASED ON MDL
SOUNDINGS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KJST/KBFD. HOWEVER...ODDS OF
EVEN A BRIEF REDUCTION APPEARS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

MON...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070642
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTIAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND AND WET
GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S RAIN...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT OBS...AS WELL AS LATEST SREF...HRRR AND LAMP
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIFR AT KBFD
THRU 12Z. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATUS WILL COMPLICATE THE FCST BY
HOLDING TEMPS UP AND DIMINISHING THE FOG POTENTIAL IN SPOTS. WILL
RELY ON BLEND OF SREF AND LATEST HRRR...WHICH PLACE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS FROM KAOO/KUNV/KIPT NWRD...WITH ONLY A
SLIM CHANCE OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS. THE TOPOGRAPHY OF KJST
/ON THE RIDGETOP/ IS UNFAVORABLE FOR RADATION FOG AND SUGGESTS
PREDOMINATELY MVFR OR BETTER CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE EARLY THIS AM.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BTWN 12Z-14Z BASED ON MDL
SOUNDINGS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KJST/KBFD. HOWEVER...ODDS OF
EVEN A BRIEF REDUCTION APPEARS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

MON...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070642
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTIAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND AND WET
GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S RAIN...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT OBS...AS WELL AS LATEST SREF...HRRR AND LAMP
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIFR AT KBFD
THRU 12Z. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATUS WILL COMPLICATE THE FCST BY
HOLDING TEMPS UP AND DIMINISHING THE FOG POTENTIAL IN SPOTS. WILL
RELY ON BLEND OF SREF AND LATEST HRRR...WHICH PLACE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS FROM KAOO/KUNV/KIPT NWRD...WITH ONLY A
SLIM CHANCE OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS. THE TOPOGRAPHY OF KJST
/ON THE RIDGETOP/ IS UNFAVORABLE FOR RADATION FOG AND SUGGESTS
PREDOMINATELY MVFR OR BETTER CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE EARLY THIS AM.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BTWN 12Z-14Z BASED ON MDL
SOUNDINGS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KJST/KBFD. HOWEVER...ODDS OF
EVEN A BRIEF REDUCTION APPEARS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

MON...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOMERSET AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE WHILE WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS....ALONG WITH
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1158 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOMERSET AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE WHILE WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS....ALONG WITH
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
927 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOMERSET AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE WHILE WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS....ALONG WITH
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
927 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOMERSET AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE WHILE WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS....ALONG WITH
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

THE MCS THAT PROMPTED A HANDFUL OF WARNINGS AS IT DROPPED SE
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS HAS MOVED
INTO MARYLAND. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
LAURELS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 062329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

THE MCS THAT PROMPTED A HANDFUL OF WARNINGS AS IT DROPPED SE
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS HAS MOVED
INTO MARYLAND. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
LAURELS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

THE MCS THAT PROMPTED A HANDFUL OF WARNINGS AS IT DROPPED SE
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS HAS MOVED
INTO MARYLAND. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
LAURELS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 062224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED
CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF
KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER
THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL.

SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK.

THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 062224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED
CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF
KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER
THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL.

SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK.

THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED
CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF
KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER
THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL.

SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK.

THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE
STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF MVFR
TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF PENN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG WITH VFR OVC
SKIES AT KIPT.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED
CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF
KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER
THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL.

SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK.

THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE
STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF MVFR
TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF PENN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG WITH VFR OVC
SKIES AT KIPT.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED
CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF
KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER
THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL.

SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK.

THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE
STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF MVFR
TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF PENN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG WITH VFR OVS
SKIES AT KIPT.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED
CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF
KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER
THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL.

SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK.

THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE
STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF MVFR
TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF PENN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG WITH VFR OVS
SKIES AT KIPT.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.

LATEST...14Z HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SUSQ
VALLEY SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS...AND SKIES STAY MAINLY
CLOUDY.

THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF RT22/322 IN SOUTHERN PENN.

THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED...AND IN A FEW CLUSTERS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PULSE UP PRETTY HIGH WHERE SFC-BASED
CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 1300 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WNW WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO PEAKS GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE
BELOW 40 MPH WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR OVER THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS /OR MORE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MORNING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA INVOF /OR JUST SOUTH/ OR KMDT
WILL LIKELY PASS 15-20 MILES SOUTH OF KLNS OVER THE NEXT 90
MINUTES.

AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....THOUGH
IFR TO LIFR APPEARS THAT IT/LL PERSIST ALSO INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG
WITH MVFR OVS SKIES AT KIPT.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.

LATEST...14Z HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SUSQ
VALLEY SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS...AND SKIES STAY MAINLY
CLOUDY.

THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF RT22/322 IN SOUTHERN PENN.

THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED...AND IN A FEW CLUSTERS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PULSE UP PRETTY HIGH WHERE SFC-BASED
CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 1300 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WNW WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO PEAKS GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE
BELOW 40 MPH WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR OVER THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS /OR MORE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MORNING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA INVOF /OR JUST SOUTH/ OR KMDT
WILL LIKELY PASS 15-20 MILES SOUTH OF KLNS OVER THE NEXT 90
MINUTES.

AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....THOUGH
IFR TO LIFR APPEARS THAT IT/LL PERSIST ALSO INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG
WITH MVFR OVS SKIES AT KIPT.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061403
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.

LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT OUR EAST ZONES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS.

THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCENT PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH AND WE DECREASE THE
POPS TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY OR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KSEG LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN.

MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MONRING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA HEADED TWD KMDT AND KLNS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS/ WILL SCOOT EAST OF THE REGION BY SHORTLY AFTER
16Z.

AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061403
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.

LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT OUR EAST ZONES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS.

THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCENT PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH AND WE DECREASE THE
POPS TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY OR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KSEG LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN.

MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MONRING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA HEADED TWD KMDT AND KLNS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS/ WILL SCOOT EAST OF THE REGION BY SHORTLY AFTER
16Z.

AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061155
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE AREA OF
SHOWERS. ADJUSTED THE 12Z TAFS FOR THIS...ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED 09Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060845
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060845
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060845
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060845
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.

A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060604
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LONG TRAIN OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NRN OH AND WRN PA. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN...BUT COULD DISSIPATE/BREAK UP AS IT CROSSES
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SFC FRONT IS PROBABLY RUNNING THRU THE SRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...STRETCHED ALL THE WAY ACROSS FROM W-E. KEPT POPS VERY
HIGH IN THE NWRN COS AND CLEARFIELD CO...BUT SHARP SOUTHERN CUTOFF
ALONG WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT ALOFT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING
TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE LAURELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060604
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LONG TRAIN OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NRN OH AND WRN PA. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN...BUT COULD DISSIPATE/BREAK UP AS IT CROSSES
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SFC FRONT IS PROBABLY RUNNING THRU THE SRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...STRETCHED ALL THE WAY ACROSS FROM W-E. KEPT POPS VERY
HIGH IN THE NWRN COS AND CLEARFIELD CO...BUT SHARP SOUTHERN CUTOFF
ALONG WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT ALOFT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING
TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE LAURELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060604
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LONG TRAIN OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NRN OH AND WRN PA. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN...BUT COULD DISSIPATE/BREAK UP AS IT CROSSES
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SFC FRONT IS PROBABLY RUNNING THRU THE SRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...STRETCHED ALL THE WAY ACROSS FROM W-E. KEPT POPS VERY
HIGH IN THE NWRN COS AND CLEARFIELD CO...BUT SHARP SOUTHERN CUTOFF
ALONG WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT ALOFT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING
TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE LAURELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060604
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LONG TRAIN OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NRN OH AND WRN PA. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN...BUT COULD DISSIPATE/BREAK UP AS IT CROSSES
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SFC FRONT IS PROBABLY RUNNING THRU THE SRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...STRETCHED ALL THE WAY ACROSS FROM W-E. KEPT POPS VERY
HIGH IN THE NWRN COS AND CLEARFIELD CO...BUT SHARP SOUTHERN CUTOFF
ALONG WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT ALOFT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING
TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE LAURELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060552
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060552
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060552
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT MVFR CONDS
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH KBFD AND EASTWARD
TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS INCLUDING
KJST...KAOO...KUNV AND KMDT WILL BE RAINFREE MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL EXIT KLNS BY
0430Z. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY BY EARLY WED WITH
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. CUT BACK ON THE FOG AT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERN PA SITES WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE ISOLATED TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 060314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT MVFR CONDS
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH KBFD AND EASTWARD
TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS INCLUDING
KJST...KAOO...KUNV AND KMDT WILL BE RAINFREE MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL EXIT KLNS BY
0430Z. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY BY EARLY WED WITH
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. CUT BACK ON THE FOG AT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERN PA SITES WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE ISOLATED TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060204
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 060204
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 052321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 052321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 052321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 052321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 052304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 052304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 052304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 052115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 052115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 052115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051930
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051854
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
VFR MUCH OF TE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051854
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
VFR MUCH OF TE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 051854
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
VFR MUCH OF TE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 051854
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER  INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT
TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
VFR MUCH OF TE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051452
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1045 AM... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA... BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 10 AM. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TWEAKED
POPS TO COVER FOR THE LATEST AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY... IE LIKELY POPS FOR THE LAURELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-SUSQ VALLEY WITH CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.

DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051452
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1045 AM... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA... BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 10 AM. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TWEAKED
POPS TO COVER FOR THE LATEST AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY... IE LIKELY POPS FOR THE LAURELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-SUSQ VALLEY WITH CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.

DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 051452
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1045 AM... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA... BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 10 AM. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TWEAKED
POPS TO COVER FOR THE LATEST AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY... IE LIKELY POPS FOR THE LAURELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-SUSQ VALLEY WITH CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.

DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051452
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1045 AM... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA... BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 10 AM. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TWEAKED
POPS TO COVER FOR THE LATEST AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY... IE LIKELY POPS FOR THE LAURELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-SUSQ VALLEY WITH CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.

DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 051132
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.

DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051132
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS TODAY...NOT A LOT. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE
ACTIVITY TRYS TO LIFT TO THE N AND W OF OUR AREA.

DID BRING CONDITIONS DOWN SOME TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT
RUSH IT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050934
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
534 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE. 09Z TAFS SENT.

A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z
AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050934
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
534 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE. 09Z TAFS SENT.

A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z
AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
509 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z
AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
509 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVNACING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E
CONVG. THE MESO MDLS BRING THIS INTO THE WRN/SWRN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR
THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO
THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN
THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR
EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING TO END THE SHOWERS.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE NY
BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL
MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR
IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER BY 2 OR 3 AM.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z
AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050638
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN
THE SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE WAITING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE W/SW AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
TRIGGER DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN LITTLE BY LITTE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MOISTURE/THETA-E CONVG IS DEVELOPED BY THE MESO MDLS LATER THIS
MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE W/SW
AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F
AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE
U60S/L70S. STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS
NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE
DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED
- ESP IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS
ON ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z
AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER RH LEVELS TODAY...AS DEWPOINTS COME UP.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGHER CHANCE LATE TODAY.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050638
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN
THE SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE WAITING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE W/SW AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
TRIGGER DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN LITTLE BY LITTE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MOISTURE/THETA-E CONVG IS DEVELOPED BY THE MESO MDLS LATER THIS
MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE W/SW
AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F
AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE
U60S/L70S. STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS
NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE
DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED
- ESP IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS
ON ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z
AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER RH LEVELS TODAY...AS DEWPOINTS COME UP.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGHER CHANCE LATE TODAY.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN
THE SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE WAITING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE W/SW AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
TRIGGER DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN LITTLE BY LITTE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MOISTURE/THETA-E CONVG IS DEVELOPED BY THE MESO MDLS LATER THIS
MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE W/SW
AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F
AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE
U60S/L70S. STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS
NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE
DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED
- ESP IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS
ON ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN
THE SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE WAITING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE W/SW AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
TRIGGER DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN LITTLE BY LITTE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MOISTURE/THETA-E CONVG IS DEVELOPED BY THE MESO MDLS LATER THIS
MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE W/SW
AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F
AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE
U60S/L70S. STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS
NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE
DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED
- ESP IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS
ON ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050326
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1126 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN FOR
THE NE AND SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WAITING
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM THE W/SW
AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE CLEARING IN
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050326
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1126 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN FOR
THE NE AND SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WAITING
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM THE W/SW
AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE CLEARING IN
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRACTURED AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FROPA IS
PUSHING THROUGHT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS REACHING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SPOTS SAW 0.1" TO 0.2"...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RH RECOVERY WHICH IS GOOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WILL
REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
LACKING. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF 1.1" TO 1.25" PW WILL LIE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME STEADIER SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD OR
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AS THE DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE WINNING THIS BATTLE. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY
THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE
ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND
NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 050001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY
THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE
ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND
NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY
THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE
ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND
NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY
THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE
ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND
NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 042312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY
THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE
ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND
NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS ATMOSPHERE
COOLS/STABILIZES. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE W
MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT
KJST ARND 12Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY
EAST/WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES
EAST OVER IT. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY
THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE
ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND
NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS ATMOSPHERE
COOLS/STABILIZES. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE W
MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT
KJST ARND 12Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY
EAST/WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES
EAST OVER IT. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 042137
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SUNNY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CREATE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN HAS LEAD TO JUST A
SPECKLING OF FLAT/HIGH-BASED CU...AND HIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WHERE AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 20Z.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GR LAKES. HOWEVER...ONLY
A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE ABLE TO BE
GENERATED TO THE WEST OF RT 219 BRIEFLY LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING..WELL AHEAD OF THE CFRONT. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND WRF ARW INDICATE THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS
/CURRENTLY IN A BKN NARROW LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE CFRONT
WILL BREAK APART AND HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK ACROSS OUR
CWA...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.

STILL THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLES EAST OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY BE
UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS ATMOSPHERE
COOLS/STABILIZES. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE W
MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT
KJST ARND 12Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY
EAST/WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES
EAST OVER IT. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM...DRY...AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND THE GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR APPROX THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041954
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SUNNY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CREATE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN HAS LEAD TO JUST A
SPECKLING OF FLAT/HIGH-BASED CU...AND HIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WHERE AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 20Z.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GR LAKES. HOWEVER...ONLY
A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE ABLE TO BE
GENERATED TO THE WEST OF RT 219 BRIEFLY LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING..WELL AHEAD OF THE CFRONT. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND WRF ARW INDICATE THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS
/CURRENTLY IN A BKN NARROW LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE CFRONT
WILL BREAK APART AND HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK ACROSS OUR
CWA...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.

STILL THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLES EAST OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY BE
UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE
STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST
INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST
KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST
OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. GUSTS OF 22-28 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH ABOUT 23Z BEFORE WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES EAST OVER IT. EXPECT
MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/AND ANY TSRA.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER BY ABOUT 1 FLIGHT CATEGORY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
VSBYS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM...DRY...AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND THE GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR APPROX THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SUNNY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CREATE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN HAS LEAD TO JUST A
SPLECKLING OF FLAT/HIGH-BASED CU...AND HIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WHERE AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 20Z.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GR LAKES. HOWEVER...ONLY
A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE ABLE TO BE
GENERATED TO THE WEST OF RT 219 BRIEFLY LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING..WELL AHEAD OF THE CFRONT. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND WRF ARW INDICATE THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS
/CURRENTLY IN A BKN NARROW LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE CFRONT
WILL BREAK APART AND HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK ACROSS OUR
CWA...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.

STILL THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLES EAST OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY BE
UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST
OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. GUSTS OF 22-28 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH ABOUT 23Z BEFORE WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES EAST OVER IT. EXPECT
MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/AND ANY TSRA.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER BY ABOUT 1 FLIGHT CATEGORY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
VSBYS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM...DRY...AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND THE GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR APPROX THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SUNNY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CREATE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN HAS LEAD TO JUST A
SPLECKLING OF FLAT/HIGH-BASED CU...AND HIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WHERE AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 20Z.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GR LAKES. HOWEVER...ONLY
A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE ABLE TO BE
GENERATED TO THE WEST OF RT 219 BRIEFLY LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING..WELL AHEAD OF THE CFRONT. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND WRF ARW INDICATE THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS
/CURRENTLY IN A BKN NARROW LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE CFRONT
WILL BREAK APART AND HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK ACROSS OUR
CWA...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.

STILL THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLES EAST OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY BE
UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST
OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. GUSTS OF 22-28 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH ABOUT 23Z BEFORE WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES EAST OVER IT. EXPECT
MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/AND ANY TSRA.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER BY ABOUT 1 FLIGHT CATEGORY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
VSBYS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM...DRY...AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND THE GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR APPROX THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SUNNY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CREATE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN HAS LEAD TO JUST A
SPLECKLING OF FLAT/HIGH-BASED CU...AND HIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WHERE AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 20Z.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GR LAKES. HOWEVER...ONLY
A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE ABLE TO BE
GENERATED TO THE WEST OF RT 219 BRIEFLY LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING..WELL AHEAD OF THE CFRONT. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND WRF ARW INDICATE THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS
/CURRENTLY IN A BKN NARROW LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE CFRONT
WILL BREAK APART AND HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK ACROSS OUR
CWA...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.

STILL THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT/PREDAWN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLES EAST OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY BE
UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED
CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG
WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD-
NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY
ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION.

BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER
ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST
OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. GUSTS OF 22-28 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH ABOUT 23Z BEFORE WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES EAST OVER IT. EXPECT
MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/AND ANY TSRA.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER BY ABOUT 1 FLIGHT CATEGORY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
VSBYS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM...DRY...AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND THE GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR APPROX THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041553
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1153 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN WILL CAP OF MOST
HIGH-BASED CU THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD...WE/LL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS WARREN
COUNTY. MY FAR NWRN ZONES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND THE WEAK SFC-BASED AND
ML CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S...TO LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING VFR CONDS
WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST
OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MIN RH`S
WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041553
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1153 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN WILL CAP OF MOST
HIGH-BASED CU THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD...WE/LL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS WARREN
COUNTY. MY FAR NWRN ZONES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND THE WEAK SFC-BASED AND
ML CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S...TO LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING VFR CONDS
WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST
OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MIN RH`S
WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041451
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN WILL CAP OF MOST
HIGH-BASED CU THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD...WE/LL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS WARREN
COUNTY. MY FAR NWRN ZONES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND THE WEAK SFC-BASED AND
ML CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S...TO LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MIN RH`S
WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041451
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN WILL CAP OF MOST
HIGH-BASED CU THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD...WE/LL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS WARREN
COUNTY. MY FAR NWRN ZONES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND THE WEAK SFC-BASED AND
ML CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S...TO LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MIN RH`S
WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041451
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN WILL CAP OF MOST
HIGH-BASED CU THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD...WE/LL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS WARREN
COUNTY. MY FAR NWRN ZONES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND THE WEAK SFC-BASED AND
ML CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S...TO LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MIN RH`S
WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES BY
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MY FAR NWRN ZONES
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR AND THE WEAK CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES BY
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MY FAR NWRN ZONES
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR AND THE WEAK CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES BY
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MY FAR NWRN ZONES
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR AND THE WEAK CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 041104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES BY
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MY FAR NWRN ZONES
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR AND THE WEAK CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL
BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY
WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME FOG AT LNS NOW.

WILL SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER BEFORE THE 12Z TAFS GO OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I
ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE




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