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000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE FAR SW AND FAR SE BUT
STILL DENSE FOG IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL
MTNS. FOG ADVY WILL CONTINUE AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BUT
PROBABLY NOT.

PREV...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED-12Z THU...WDSPRD IFR WILL DECREASE IN CVRG AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR THRU 14-16Z. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AGAIN FOR
IFR REDUCTIONS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING WHICH IS NOW
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR RESTRICTIONS BCMG MVFR/VFR BY THE AFTN.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE FAR SW AND FAR SE BUT
STILL DENSE FOG IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL
MTNS. FOG ADVY WILL CONTINUE AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BUT
PROBABLY NOT.

PREV...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED-12Z THU...WDSPRD IFR WILL DECREASE IN CVRG AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR THRU 14-16Z. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AGAIN FOR
IFR REDUCTIONS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING WHICH IS NOW
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR RESTRICTIONS BCMG MVFR/VFR BY THE AFTN.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED-12Z THU...WDSPRD IFR WILL DECREASE IN CVRG AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR THRU 14-16Z. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AGAIN FOR
IFR REDUCTIONS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING WHICH IS NOW
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR RESTRICTIONS BCMG MVFR/VFR BY THE AFTN.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED-12Z THU...WDSPRD IFR WILL DECREASE IN CVRG AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR THRU 14-16Z. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AGAIN FOR
IFR REDUCTIONS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING WHICH IS NOW
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR RESTRICTIONS BCMG MVFR/VFR BY THE AFTN.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010902
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITHI HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010902
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...
AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITHI HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010752
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
352 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITHI HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010752
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
352 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
HAVING FORMED IN THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WEAKENING RAINBAND
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH 13Z.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING EVER SO SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES INVOF DEPARTING UPPER TROF
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT BY AND
LARGE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIE WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAINBAND FALLING APART OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITHI HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING RETURN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY IS IN STORE AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING
PERSISTS FROM LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN SFC HIGH EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN PA. MAXES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AND REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010634
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS PROMOTED DENSE FOG
FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 13Z FROM BLAIR AND BEDFORD
COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DID
NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL TUESDAY...SO HOLDING OFF ON NPW FOR FOG
THERE FOR NOW.

CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND A
LARGE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM
WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ
VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING
PROMOTING AFOREMENTIONED FOG DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010634
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS PROMOTED DENSE FOG
FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 13Z FROM BLAIR AND BEDFORD
COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DID
NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL TUESDAY...SO HOLDING OFF ON NPW FOR FOG
THERE FOR NOW.

CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND A
LARGE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM
WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ
VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING
PROMOTING AFOREMENTIONED FOG DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED-06Z THU...COSPA/HRRR SHOWS BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN PIVOTING
SLOWLY NWD AND WEAKENING NEAR IPT-RDG LINE THRU 09Z. RAIN SHOULD
END AT LNS BY 07Z. FLGT CATS ARE HIGHLY VRBL AS OF 06Z RANGING
FROM BLW AIRFIELDS MINS TO VFR. EXPECT SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IFR OR BELOW TO REMAIN THERE THRU DAYBREAK...WHILE OTHER SITES
TREND TO LOWER FLGT CATS GIVEN WEAK SFC FLOW...TIGHT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT RAFL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTN/EVE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS TNGT INTO EARLY THURS AND WILL ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010421
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS PROMOTED DENSE FOG
FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 13Z FROM BLAIR AND BEDFORD
COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DID
NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL TUESDAY...SO HOLDING OFF ON NPW FOR FOG
THERE FOR NOW.

CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND A
LARGE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM
WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ
VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING
PROMOTING AFOREMENTIONED FOG DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF
A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80
KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS MID EVE
AS THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
KPIT.

THOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERALL SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
SUNSET...JUST ABOUT EVERY CELL PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS STILL POSS IN VICINITY
OF TERMINALS FROM KSEG TO KMDT-KLNS THROUGH 06Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OUT. EXPECT IFR FOG/CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AND A BIT LATER AFTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST...WITH IFR LINGERING TO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

FOG/LOWER CIGS START THE DAY WED...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ARRIVING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010421
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS PROMOTED DENSE FOG
FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 13Z FROM BLAIR AND BEDFORD
COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DID
NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL TUESDAY...SO HOLDING OFF ON NPW FOR FOG
THERE FOR NOW.

CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND A
LARGE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM
WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ
VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING
PROMOTING AFOREMENTIONED FOG DEVELOPMENT...DUE TO VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF
A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80
KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS MID EVE
AS THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
KPIT.

THOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERALL SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
SUNSET...JUST ABOUT EVERY CELL PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS STILL POSS IN VICINITY
OF TERMINALS FROM KSEG TO KMDT-KLNS THROUGH 06Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OUT. EXPECT IFR FOG/CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AND A BIT LATER AFTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST...WITH IFR LINGERING TO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

FOG/LOWER CIGS START THE DAY WED...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ARRIVING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>036-045-056-063-064.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. AS EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO THE CONVECTION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING
80 KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS JET MAX WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AFTER 05Z.

AS THE CENTER OF AN APPROACHING...568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CENTERED NEAR KPIT OVERNIGHT...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY
THE MIDDLE/WEST BRANCH SUSQ VALLEY AND THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE
LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HRRR/S PRECIP...AND THE LOCATION OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING VIA THE
18/00Z NAM TO PAINT HIGH...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO
1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH AREAS OF CLEARING THAT
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG CONSIDERING THE VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN 08-13Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY...AND THE BEST COMBINATION OF CLEARING
SKIES...MODERATELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE
PRESENT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF
A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80
KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS MID EVE
AS THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
KPIT.

THOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERALL SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
SUNSET...JUST ABOUT EVERY CELL PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS STILL POSS IN VICINITY
OF TERMINALS FROM KSEG TO KMDT-KLNS THROUGH 06Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OUT. EXPECT IFR FOG/CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AND A BIT LATER AFTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST...WITH IFR LINGERING TO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

FOG/LOWER CIGS START THE DAY WED...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ARRIVING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. AS EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO THE CONVECTION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING
80 KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS JET MAX WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AFTER 05Z.

AS THE CENTER OF AN APPROACHING...568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CENTERED NEAR KPIT OVERNIGHT...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO PRIMARILY
THE MIDDLE/WEST BRANCH SUSQ VALLEY AND THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE
LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A COMPACT AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HRRR/S PRECIP...AND THE LOCATION OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING VIA THE
18/00Z NAM TO PAINT HIGH...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS BY 6 AM WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO
1.00 INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND WESTERN POCONOS.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE DOTTED AROUND...ALONG WITH AREAS OF CLEARING THAT
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG CONSIDERING THE VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN 08-13Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY...AND THE BEST COMBINATION OF CLEARING
SKIES...MODERATELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE
PRESENT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF
A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80
KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS MID EVE
AS THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
KPIT.

THOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERALL SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
SUNSET...JUST ABOUT EVERY CELL PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS STILL POSS IN VICINITY
OF TERMINALS FROM KSEG TO KMDT-KLNS THROUGH 06Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OUT. EXPECT IFR FOG/CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AND A BIT LATER AFTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST...WITH IFR LINGERING TO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

FOG/LOWER CIGS START THE DAY WED...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ARRIVING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010018
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
818 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE AREA RIGHT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF A REGION OF
ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80 KT
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AFTER 03Z AS
THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR KPIT.

THIS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WANES WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

RAINFALL RATES AND 1-3 HOUR TOTALS HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED GREATLY
/PERHAPS BY 50 PERCENT OR SE/ BY NUMEROUS  OCCURRENCES OF
PEA...TO DIME- SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES THAT HAVE HAD
TROUBLE PENETRATING THE -20C LEVEL UP AROUND 23 KFT. STILL...SOME
OF THE STORMS HAVE DROPPED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
HARRISBURG /TO KIPT AND KAVP/ OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS SCENT PENN AND MAINTAINS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/S PRECIP...AND THE LOCATION
OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING VIA THE 18Z NAM WILL LEAD US TO INCREASE
POPS TO AT LEAST THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF 1.00 INCH
RAINFALL...WHILE THE CHC OF HAIL GREATLY DIMINISHES BY 01Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF
A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80
KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS MID EVE
AS THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
KPIT.

THOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERALL SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
SUNSET...JUST ABOUT EVERY CELL PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS STILL POSS IN VICINITY
OF TERMINALS FROM KSEG TO KMDT-KLNS THROUGH 06Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OUT. EXPECT IFR FOG/CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AND A BIT LATER AFTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST...WITH IFR LINGERING TO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

FOG/LOWER CIGS START THE DAY WED...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ARRIVING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010018
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
818 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE AREA RIGHT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF A REGION OF
ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80 KT
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AFTER 03Z AS
THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR KPIT.

THIS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WANES WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

RAINFALL RATES AND 1-3 HOUR TOTALS HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED GREATLY
/PERHAPS BY 50 PERCENT OR SE/ BY NUMEROUS  OCCURRENCES OF
PEA...TO DIME- SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES THAT HAVE HAD
TROUBLE PENETRATING THE -20C LEVEL UP AROUND 23 KFT. STILL...SOME
OF THE STORMS HAVE DROPPED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
HARRISBURG /TO KIPT AND KAVP/ OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS SCENT PENN AND MAINTAINS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/S PRECIP...AND THE LOCATION
OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING VIA THE 18Z NAM WILL LEAD US TO INCREASE
POPS TO AT LEAST THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF 1.00 INCH
RAINFALL...WHILE THE CHC OF HAIL GREATLY DIMINISHES BY 01Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF
A REGION OF ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80
KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THIS MID EVE
AS THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
KPIT.

THOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVERALL SLOWLY WEAKENING SINCE
SUNSET...JUST ABOUT EVERY CELL PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS STILL POSS IN VICINITY
OF TERMINALS FROM KSEG TO KMDT-KLNS THROUGH 06Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OUT. EXPECT IFR FOG/CIGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AND A BIT LATER AFTER
SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST...WITH IFR LINGERING TO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

FOG/LOWER CIGS START THE DAY WED...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ARRIVING AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
659 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE AREA RIGHT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF A REGION OF
ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80 KT
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AFTER 03Z AS
THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR KPIT.

THIS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WANES WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

RAINFALL RATES AND 1-3 HOUR TOTALS HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED GREATLY
/PERHAPS BY 50 PERCENT OR SE/ BY NUMEROUS  OCCURRENCES OF
PEA...TO DIME- SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES THAT HAVE HAD
TROUBLE PENETRATING THE -20C LEVEL UP AROUND 23 KFT. STILL...SOME
OF THE STORMS HAVE DROPPED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
HARRISBURG /TO KIPT AND KAVP/ OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS SCENT PENN AND MAINTAINS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/S PRECIP...AND THE LOCATION
OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING VIA THE 18Z NAM WILL LEAD US TO INCREASE
POPS TO AT LEAST THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF 1.00 INCH
RAINFALL...WHILE THE CHC OF HAIL GREATLY DIMINISHES BY 01Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING
ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
659 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PENN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN IMPACTING
MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE AREA RIGHT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A RESULT OF A REGION OF
ENHANCED/DEEP UVVEL AT THE NOSE OF AN APPROACHING 80 KT
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET MAX WILL SLIDE TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AFTER 03Z AS
THE CENTERED OF A 568 DAM 500 MB LOW BECOMES CENTERED NEAR KPIT.

THIS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WANES WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

RAINFALL RATES AND 1-3 HOUR TOTALS HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED GREATLY
/PERHAPS BY 50 PERCENT OR SE/ BY NUMEROUS  OCCURRENCES OF
PEA...TO DIME- SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES THAT HAVE HAD
TROUBLE PENETRATING THE -20C LEVEL UP AROUND 23 KFT. STILL...SOME
OF THE STORMS HAVE DROPPED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
HARRISBURG /TO KIPT AND KAVP/ OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS SCENT PENN AND MAINTAINS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/S PRECIP...AND THE LOCATION
OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING VIA THE 18Z NAM WILL LEAD US TO INCREASE
POPS TO AT LEAST THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF 1.00 INCH
RAINFALL...WHILE THE CHC OF HAIL GREATLY DIMINISHES BY 01Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT ACROSS SCENT PENN
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING
ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO FIRE FROM THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WORKED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
PA...BUT THE FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT WILL BASICALLY JUST STALL OR WASHOUT OVER THE AREA.

THE MAIN THREAT TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL BE FOR BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MODEL FORECAST CAPES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO
THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

AS THE UPPER LOW GRINDS TO A HALT OVERHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS A THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING
ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO FIRE FROM THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WORKED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
PA...BUT THE FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT WILL BASICALLY JUST STALL OR WASHOUT OVER THE AREA.

THE MAIN THREAT TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL BE FOR BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MODEL FORECAST CAPES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO
THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

AS THE UPPER LOW GRINDS TO A HALT OVERHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS A THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY
A SHORT PERIOD OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND...MUCH
STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER
LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS....WITH MOST MAXES AND MINS
AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROF / EXPECTED
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING
ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301739
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO FIRE FROM THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WORKED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
PA...BUT THE FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT WILL BASICALLY JUST STALL OR WASHOUT OVER THE AREA.

THE MAIN THREAT TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL BE FOR BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MODEL FORECAST CAPES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO
THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

AS THE UPPER LOW GRINDS TO A HALT OVERHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS A THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING
ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301516
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1116 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH MID DAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN PA AS OF MID MORNING.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD POOL ALOFT SUGGEST OUR MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED
AT BEST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR AT SERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING NWRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SLOWS. WE
WILL BE UNSTABLE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
AREA OF SCT CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL
TERMINALS INVOF JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
TSTM HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS
AND SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301516
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1116 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH MID DAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN PA AS OF MID MORNING.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD POOL ALOFT SUGGEST OUR MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED
AT BEST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR AT SERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING NWRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SLOWS. WE
WILL BE UNSTABLE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
AREA OF SCT CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL
TERMINALS INVOF JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
TSTM HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS
AND SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301420
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH MID DAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN PA AS OF MID MORNING.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD POOL ALOFT SUGGEST OUR MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED
AT BEST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING IFR CONDS WITH SOME CIGS/VSBYS AOB AIRFIELD MINS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AS FOG/ST BURNS OFF. COSPA/HRRR DATA
SLOWS SEWD ADVANCE OF BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY CROSSING LK ERIE/NRN
OH. THE MESO MDL DATA THEN SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL TERMINALS INVOF
JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH
UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND
SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301420
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH MID DAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN PA AS OF MID MORNING.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD POOL ALOFT SUGGEST OUR MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED
AT BEST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING IFR CONDS WITH SOME CIGS/VSBYS AOB AIRFIELD MINS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AS FOG/ST BURNS OFF. COSPA/HRRR DATA
SLOWS SEWD ADVANCE OF BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY CROSSING LK ERIE/NRN
OH. THE MESO MDL DATA THEN SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL TERMINALS INVOF
JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH
UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND
SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301138
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRACKING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...TAKING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND AND SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT FOR NOW. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE DENSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...ALREADY LOTS
OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VSBYS SHOWING UP SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 13Z. ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GLAKS TO
PREVENT ANY FOG WHICH FORMS FROM BECOMING DENSE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERE.

AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...AN INTERESTING CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN
STORE. COLD FRONT NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SETTING UP WELL FOR HAIL TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS DURING
MAX HEATING WITH HEALTHY CAPES (MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG)
AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 7K FT AND 8.5 FT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL. THIS IS OUTLINED IN SPC SEE TEXT AREA OVER NORTHWEST
PA. ADDED SMALL HAIL WX TYPE AS WELL...SOMETHING I USUALLY DON`T
DO ON THE MID SHIFT PRECEDING A CONVECTIVE DAY...BUT GIVEN THERMO
PARAMETERS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL TODAY WEST
AND CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY MORNING IFR CONDS WITH SOME CIGS/VSBYS AOB AIRFIELD MINS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AS FOG/ST BURNS OFF. COSPA/HRRR DATA
SLOWS SEWD ADVANCE OF BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY CROSSING LK ERIE/NRN
OH. THE MESO MDL DATA THEN SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL TERMINALS INVOF
JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH
UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND
SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301138
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRACKING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...TAKING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND AND SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT FOR NOW. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE DENSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...ALREADY LOTS
OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VSBYS SHOWING UP SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 13Z. ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GLAKS TO
PREVENT ANY FOG WHICH FORMS FROM BECOMING DENSE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERE.

AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...AN INTERESTING CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN
STORE. COLD FRONT NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SETTING UP WELL FOR HAIL TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS DURING
MAX HEATING WITH HEALTHY CAPES (MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG)
AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 7K FT AND 8.5 FT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL. THIS IS OUTLINED IN SPC SEE TEXT AREA OVER NORTHWEST
PA. ADDED SMALL HAIL WX TYPE AS WELL...SOMETHING I USUALLY DON`T
DO ON THE MID SHIFT PRECEDING A CONVECTIVE DAY...BUT GIVEN THERMO
PARAMETERS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL TODAY WEST
AND CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY MORNING IFR CONDS WITH SOME CIGS/VSBYS AOB AIRFIELD MINS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AS FOG/ST BURNS OFF. COSPA/HRRR DATA
SLOWS SEWD ADVANCE OF BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY CROSSING LK ERIE/NRN
OH. THE MESO MDL DATA THEN SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AIRSPACE/CENTRAL TERMINALS INVOF
JST/AOO/UNV BTWN 17-19Z. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH
UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD. EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND
SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300911
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
511 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRACKING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...TAKING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND AND SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT FOR NOW. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE DENSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...ALREADY LOTS
OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VSBYS SHOWING UP SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 13Z. ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GLAKS TO
PREVENT ANY FOG WHICH FORMS FROM BECOMING DENSE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERE.

AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...AN INTERESTING CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN
STORE. COLD FRONT NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SETTING UP WELL FOR HAIL TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS DURING
MAX HEATING WITH HEALTHY CAPES (MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG)
AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 7K FT AND 8.5 FT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL. THIS IS OUTLINED IN SPC SEE TEXT AREA OVER NORTHWEST
PA. ADDED SMALL HAIL WX TYPE AS WELL...SOMETHING I USUALLY DON`T
DO ON THE MID SHIFT PRECEDING A CONVECTIVE DAY...BUT GIVEN THERMO
PARAMETERS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL TODAY WEST
AND CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
30/09Z UPDATE...DROPPED BFD/IPT/LNS ALL BELOW AIRFIELD MINS PER
LATEST OBS. UNV/AOO ARE TRENDING LOWER ATTM WITH 5SM AND 7SM
RESPECTIVELY AND WILL MAINTAIN 2SM FM 10-13Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS MARGINAL. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO MDT WITH IFR NOW
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU DAWN.

30/06Z...CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ACRS CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT
BFD/IPT/LNS (PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO
REALLY GET INTO THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP
VSBY AT 3-5SM. DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH DID SHOW SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
WEAK COLD FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER
TODAY INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA
MENTION AT ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
TSTM HAZARD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300911
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
511 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRACKING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...TAKING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND AND SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT FOR NOW. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE DENSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...ALREADY LOTS
OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VSBYS SHOWING UP SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 13Z. ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GLAKS TO
PREVENT ANY FOG WHICH FORMS FROM BECOMING DENSE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERE.

AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...AN INTERESTING CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN
STORE. COLD FRONT NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SETTING UP WELL FOR HAIL TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS DURING
MAX HEATING WITH HEALTHY CAPES (MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG)
AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 7K FT AND 8.5 FT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL. THIS IS OUTLINED IN SPC SEE TEXT AREA OVER NORTHWEST
PA. ADDED SMALL HAIL WX TYPE AS WELL...SOMETHING I USUALLY DON`T
DO ON THE MID SHIFT PRECEDING A CONVECTIVE DAY...BUT GIVEN THERMO
PARAMETERS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL TODAY WEST
AND CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
30/09Z UPDATE...DROPPED BFD/IPT/LNS ALL BELOW AIRFIELD MINS PER
LATEST OBS. UNV/AOO ARE TRENDING LOWER ATTM WITH 5SM AND 7SM
RESPECTIVELY AND WILL MAINTAIN 2SM FM 10-13Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS MARGINAL. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO MDT WITH IFR NOW
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU DAWN.

30/06Z...CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ACRS CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT
BFD/IPT/LNS (PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO
REALLY GET INTO THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP
VSBY AT 3-5SM. DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY
ALTHOUGH DID SHOW SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
WEAK COLD FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER
TODAY INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA
MENTION AT ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
TSTM HAZARD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300730
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRACKING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...TAKING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND AND SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT FOR NOW. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE DENSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...ALREADY LOTS
OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VSBYS SHOWING UP SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 13Z. ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GLAKS TO
PREVENT ANY FOG WHICH FORMS FROM BECOMING DENSE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERE.

AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...AN INTERESTING CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN
STORE. COLD FRONT NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SETTING UP WELL FOR HAIL TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS DURING
MAX HEATING WITH HEALTHY CAPES (MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG)
AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 7K FT AND 8.5 FT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL. THIS IS OUTLINED IN SPC SEE TEXT AREA OVER NORTHWEST
PA. ADDED SMALL HAIL WX TYPE AS WELL...SOMETHING I USUALLY DON`T
DO ON THE MID SHIFT PRECEDING A CONVECTIVE DAY...BUT GIVEN THERMO
PARAMETERS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL TODAY WEST
AND CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS
CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT BFD/IPT/LNS
(PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO REALLY GET INTO
THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP VSBY AT 3-5SM.
DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH DID SHOW
SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK COLD
FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA MENTION AT
ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300730
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME HAIL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRACKING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...TAKING DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND AND SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT FOR NOW. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE DENSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...ALREADY LOTS
OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VSBYS SHOWING UP SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 13Z. ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GLAKS TO
PREVENT ANY FOG WHICH FORMS FROM BECOMING DENSE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERE.

AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...AN INTERESTING CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN
STORE. COLD FRONT NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SETTING UP WELL FOR HAIL TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS DURING
MAX HEATING WITH HEALTHY CAPES (MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG)
AND WET BULB ZERO BETWEEN 7K FT AND 8.5 FT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL. THIS IS OUTLINED IN SPC SEE TEXT AREA OVER NORTHWEST
PA. ADDED SMALL HAIL WX TYPE AS WELL...SOMETHING I USUALLY DON`T
DO ON THE MID SHIFT PRECEDING A CONVECTIVE DAY...BUT GIVEN THERMO
PARAMETERS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL TODAY WEST
AND CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
4KM SPC WRF INDICATES AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
AFTER STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND A WEAK INVERSION SETS UP IN LIGHTS WINDS. MINS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROF WOBBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS
UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT. AN UNDERWHELMING UPPER LOW OF 571 DM
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THU...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. TEMPS ON WED
HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS
CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT BFD/IPT/LNS
(PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO REALLY GET INTO
THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP VSBY AT 3-5SM.
DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH DID SHOW
SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK COLD
FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA MENTION AT
ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300631
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS
CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT BFD/IPT/LNS
(PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO REALLY GET INTO
THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP VSBY AT 3-5SM.
DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH DID SHOW
SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK COLD
FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA MENTION AT
ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300631
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS
CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT BFD/IPT/LNS
(PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO REALLY GET INTO
THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP VSBY AT 3-5SM.
DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH DID SHOW
SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK COLD
FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA MENTION AT
ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.

THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300425
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1225 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300425
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1225 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300315
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 03Z-04Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED IN THE
RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 02Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND 06Z...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300315
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 03Z-04Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED IN THE
RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 02Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND 06Z...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300239
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 03Z-04Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED IN THE
RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 02Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND 06Z...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300239
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 03Z-04Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED IN THE
RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 02Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND 06Z...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300044
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN FRANKLIN AND ADAMS CO BTWN 00Z-02Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED
IN THE RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300044
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN FRANKLIN AND ADAMS CO BTWN 00Z-02Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED
IN THE RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.

WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300014
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
814 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN FRANKLIN AND ADAMS CO BTWN 00Z-02Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED
IN THE RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300014
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
814 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN FRANKLIN AND ADAMS CO BTWN 00Z-02Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED
IN THE RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292303
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292205
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292205
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.

CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN
SXNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE NEARBY.

TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO TOP 70 IN ALL AREAS...REACHING NEAR
80 OVER THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE CLOUDCOVER.

LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE PROBABLY SEEING CLOUDS INCREASE...SHOULD STAY
DRY IN MOST AREAS. I DID PUT MORE AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN
SXNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE NEARBY.

TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO TOP 70 IN ALL AREAS...REACHING NEAR
80 OVER THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE CLOUDCOVER.

LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE PROBABLY SEEING CLOUDS INCREASE...SHOULD STAY
DRY IN MOST AREAS. I DID PUT MORE AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291814
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN
SXNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE NEARBY.

TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO TOP 70 IN ALL AREAS...REACHING NEAR
80 OVER THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE CLOUDCOVER.

LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE PROBABLY SEEING CLOUDS INCREASE...SHOULD STAY
DRY IN MOST AREAS. I DID PUT MORE AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...

THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291408
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE FAIR DAY BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS SLIDING
NE...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE RADAR SHOWS SOME
RETURNS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SOUTHWARD...OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO RAIN REACHING THE GROUND ANYWHERE
NEARBY.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT BRIGHTENING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUN WILL BE OVER THE NWRN PART OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L70S NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S ELSEWHERE WILL BE 8-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR ERN
ZONES...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
/DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION/ CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL TO NIL FOR THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY
PERIOD.

A POTENT BUT RATHER COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE TO THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SO WILL THE CHC FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SREF SHOWS GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES AOA 1000
J/KG NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KELZ...SE TO KIPT AND KRDG.
MENTIONED ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA FOR TUESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER /0.15 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EARLY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED UP WITH THE
REGION EXPERIENCING JUST SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT IF THE CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR THE NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. TIMING OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHNS PROVIDING AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291158
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS SLIDING
NE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE RADAR SHOWS
SOME RETURNS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SOUTHWARD...OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE NEARBY.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT BRIGHTENING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SUN WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NWRN
PART OF THE STATE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L70S NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S ELSEWHERE WILL BE 8-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR ERN
ZONES...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
/DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION/ CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL TO NIL FOR THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY
PERIOD.

A POTENT BUT RATHER COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE TO THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SO WILL THE CHC FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SREF SHOWS GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES AOA 1000
J/KG NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KELZ...SE TO KIPT AND KRDG.
MENTIONED ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA FOR TUESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER /0.15 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT ARE COVERING THE ERN 1/2
TO 3/4 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE CONFINED FOG TO
WHERE SKC IN THE FAR NW PRTNS OF THE AREA. EXPECT VLIFR CONDS AT
BFD TO RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN /SPRINKLES/ HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED FALLING OUT OF THE MID LVL CLOUD DECK. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CENTRAL AREAS
LKLY SEEING SOME CLEARING. FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER ISSUANCES TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SPECIFIC
FLIGHT CATS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE ERN GRT LKS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291153
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE
MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS AT LLVLS
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY.

A FEW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WERE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION JUST AHEAD OF A 700-500MB SHEAR AXIS LOCATED
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WESTERN PENN AND WVA.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEGINNING OF THIS CLEARING HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE NW
MTNS...WHERE PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM FOG HAS FORMED INVOF KFIG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L70S NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S ELSEWHERE WILL BE 8-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR ERN
ZONES...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
/DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION/ CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL TO NIL FOR THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY
PERIOD.

A POTENT BUT RATHER COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE TO THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SO WILL THE CHC FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SREF SHOWS GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES AOA 1000
J/KG NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KELZ...SE TO KIPT AND KRDG.
MENTIONED ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA FOR TUESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER /0.15 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT ARE COVERING THE ERN 1/2
TO 3/4 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE CONFINED FOG TO
WHERE SKC IN THE FAR NW PRTNS OF THE AREA. EXPECT VLIFR CONDS AT
BFD TO RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN /SPRINKLES/ HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED FALLING OUT OF THE MID LVL CLOUD DECK. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CENTRAL AREAS
LKLY SEEING SOME CLEARING. FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER ISSUANCES TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SPECIFIC
FLIGHT CATS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE ERN GRT LKS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291153
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE
MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS AT LLVLS
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY.

A FEW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WERE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION JUST AHEAD OF A 700-500MB SHEAR AXIS LOCATED
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WESTERN PENN AND WVA.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEGINNING OF THIS CLEARING HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE NW
MTNS...WHERE PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM FOG HAS FORMED INVOF KFIG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L70S NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S ELSEWHERE WILL BE 8-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR ERN
ZONES...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
/DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION/ CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL TO NIL FOR THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY
PERIOD.

A POTENT BUT RATHER COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE TO THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SO WILL THE CHC FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SREF SHOWS GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES AOA 1000
J/KG NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KELZ...SE TO KIPT AND KRDG.
MENTIONED ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA FOR TUESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER /0.15 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT ARE COVERING THE ERN 1/2
TO 3/4 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE CONFINED FOG TO
WHERE SKC IN THE FAR NW PRTNS OF THE AREA. EXPECT VLIFR CONDS AT
BFD TO RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN /SPRINKLES/ HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED FALLING OUT OF THE MID LVL CLOUD DECK. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CENTRAL AREAS
LKLY SEEING SOME CLEARING. FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER ISSUANCES TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SPECIFIC
FLIGHT CATS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE ERN GRT LKS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291004
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
604 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE
MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS AT LLVLS
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY.

A FEW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WERE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION JUST AHEAD OF A 700-500MB SHEAR AXIS LOCATED
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WESTERN PENN AND WVA.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEGINNING OF THIS CLEARING HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE NW
MTNS...WHERE PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM FOG HAS FORMED INVOF KFIG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L70S NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S ELSEWHERE WILL BE 8-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR ERN
ZONES...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
/DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION/ CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL TO NIL FOR THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY
PERIOD.

A POTENT BUT RATHER COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE TO THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SO WILL THE CHC FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SREF SHOWS GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES AOA 1000
J/KG NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KELZ...SE TO KIPT AND KRDG.
MENTIONED ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA FOR TUESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER /0.15 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291004
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
604 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE
MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS AT LLVLS
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY.

A FEW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WERE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION JUST AHEAD OF A 700-500MB SHEAR AXIS LOCATED
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES OF WESTERN PENN AND WVA.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEGINNING OF THIS CLEARING HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE NW
MTNS...WHERE PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM FOG HAS FORMED INVOF KFIG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L70S NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S ELSEWHERE WILL BE 8-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR ERN
ZONES...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LEADING TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
THOSE THAT OCCURRED AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K THETA LAYER WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
/DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION/ CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL TO NIL FOR THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY
PERIOD.

A POTENT BUT RATHER COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE TO THE
LOWER GLAKES REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND SO WILL THE CHC FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SREF SHOWS GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES AOA 1000
J/KG NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KELZ...SE TO KIPT AND KRDG.
MENTIONED ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA FOR TUESDAY. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER /0.15 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG F COOLER AND
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290700
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PLENTY OF ALTO CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
LEAD TO MIN TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S IN THE
LARGER METRO AREAS OF SERN PENN.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DIP INTO THE U40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM VALLEY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF
PA. THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290700
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PLENTY OF ALTO CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
LEAD TO MIN TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S IN THE
LARGER METRO AREAS OF SERN PENN.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DIP INTO THE U40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM VALLEY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF
PA. THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN LYRD MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM 100-250KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.

THU...LOW CIGS PSBL AS HP WEDGES ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOCD WITH GUSTY FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290617
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PLENTY OF ALTO CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
LEAD TO MIN TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S IN THE
LARGER METRO AREAS OF SERN PENN.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DIP INTO THE U40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM VALLEY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF
PA. THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO 03Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290617
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PLENTY OF ALTO CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
LEAD TO MIN TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S IN THE
LARGER METRO AREAS OF SERN PENN.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DIP INTO THE U40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY 1/4-1/2SM VALLEY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF
PA. THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO 03Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...PROVIDING
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING. UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST
HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SATL TRENDS
AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS
AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO
THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO 03Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...PROVIDING
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING. UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST
HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SATL TRENDS
AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS
AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO
THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO 03Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...PROVIDING
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING. UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST
HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SATL TRENDS
AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS
AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO
THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290238
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...PROVIDING
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING. UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST
HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SATL TRENDS
AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS
AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO
THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 00Z PACKAGE FROM THE 18 AND 21Z
TAF PACKAGES.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN
LESS PRODUCTION OF FOG TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT
14Z.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282253
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH CLDS FOR 21Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282253
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH CLDS FOR 21Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH CLDS FOR 21Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH CLDS FOR 21Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282117
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282117
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING.
UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE
REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA.
THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT
RANGE.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THAN ON RECENT DAYS...BUT IT`S STILL A FINE EARLY
FALL DAY WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OVERNIGHT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS BUT WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS WILL BE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
TO LAST NIGHT...MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND UPPER HEIGHTS ERODE AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
OUT OF THE GR LAKES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
KEEP US DRY...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS BRIGHT AS WE HAVE
ENJOYED DURING OUR RECENT EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THAN ON RECENT DAYS...BUT IT`S STILL A FINE EARLY
FALL DAY WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OVERNIGHT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS BUT WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS WILL BE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
TO LAST NIGHT...MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND UPPER HEIGHTS ERODE AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
OUT OF THE GR LAKES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
KEEP US DRY...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS BRIGHT AS WE HAVE
ENJOYED DURING OUR RECENT EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE
SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG
PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WE HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THAN ON RECENT DAYS...BUT IT`S STILL A FINE EARLY
FALL DAY WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OVERNIGHT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS BUT WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS WILL BE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
TO LAST NIGHT...MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND UPPER HEIGHTS ERODE AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
OUT OF THE GR LAKES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
KEEP US DRY...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS BRIGHT AS WE HAVE
ENJOYED DURING OUR RECENT EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE IT REMAINS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH FRI...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP AND BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WE HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THAN ON RECENT DAYS...BUT IT`S STILL A FINE EARLY
FALL DAY WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OVERNIGHT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS BUT WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS WILL BE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
TO LAST NIGHT...MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND UPPER HEIGHTS ERODE AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
OUT OF THE GR LAKES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
KEEP US DRY...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS BRIGHT AS WE HAVE
ENJOYED DURING OUR RECENT EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE IT REMAINS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH FRI...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP AND BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281427
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING VALLEY FOG IS LIFTING AND MIXING OUT NICELY...AS IT HAS
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW. IT WILL ALL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER
NEARLY PERFECT EARLY FALL AFTERNOON.

AS CUT OFF LOW OVR THE MIDWEST APPROACHES...A SURGE OF WAA ALOFT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON NEARLY IDENTICAL TO SATURDAY/S...WHICH WERE FROM
THE M70S TO L80S. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF OUR CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS SUNDAY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPS NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY /AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CFRONT/. .

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE IT REMAINS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH FRI...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP AND BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE FOG AND LOCALIZED IF/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
AN ALMOST CARBON-COPY FASHION TO THE LAST 3 MORNINGS. THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE FINE WITH HIGH SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-THU...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281427
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING VALLEY FOG IS LIFTING AND MIXING OUT NICELY...AS IT HAS
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW. IT WILL ALL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER
NEARLY PERFECT EARLY FALL AFTERNOON.

AS CUT OFF LOW OVR THE MIDWEST APPROACHES...A SURGE OF WAA ALOFT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON NEARLY IDENTICAL TO SATURDAY/S...WHICH WERE FROM
THE M70S TO L80S. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF OUR CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS SUNDAY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPS NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY /AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CFRONT/. .

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.

MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK
FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A
GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME-
FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH
OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK
1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST.

TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER
NIGHTS.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST.
RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE
FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED
INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE IT REMAINS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH FRI...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP AND BRING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE FOG AND LOCALIZED IF/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
AN ALMOST CARBON-COPY FASHION TO THE LAST 3 MORNINGS. THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE FINE WITH HIGH SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

MORE PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUE-THU...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





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