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000
FXUS61 KCTP 091004
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
504 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A COMPLEX AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SNOW HAS BEEN PATCHY SO FAR...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...AS AN AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS
OVER WV EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY WED
MORNING...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND NW.

POOR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FROM WED INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SNOW SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT SPOTS LIKE JST AND BFD.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090934
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090934
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.

PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.

PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 090645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.

PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.

PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.

PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 090358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVE LIGHT SNOW RATES
AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 090108
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
01Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED
PWATS ONLY NR SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA ARND 06Z...BOTH SUGGEST ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
RESULT IN AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF
SOUTHERN PA AND COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME SPOTS WAKE TO BARE GROUND. BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SNOW TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED INVERTED SFC TROUGH
AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR CENTRAL PA. BEST LG
SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV
FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL BLENDED
QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN MIDDAY TUES
AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO HINDER
SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO
BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING TYPE SNOW IN THE
POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOR THE
RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT LIGHT SNOW
FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES AND COULD
POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT ADVISORY/WARNING.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 082345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 22Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN REGION OF NIL
WEATHER...THE CALM BEFORE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HARD TO CALL IT A STORM PER SE AS A SLOW-MOVING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE PRECIP COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS LGT RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA THIS EVENING...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE
TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX BY ARND 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
NOW SUPPORT TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND BASE OF UPPER LOW
OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG
NEG TILTED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THRU TUE EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN WV LOOP THIS EVENING OVR S
OHIO. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE. BLEND OF MDL
DATA SUPPORT OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMTS OVR THE HIGHER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA. MARGINAL BLYR
TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE SNOW /ROUGHLY BTWN 09Z-15Z/ EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO REDEVELOP UPON APPROACH OF SECOND SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS
INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN MIDDAY TUES AND TUES EVENING. MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS
NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHERN PA IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 082345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 22Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN REGION OF NIL
WEATHER...THE CALM BEFORE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HARD TO CALL IT A STORM PER SE AS A SLOW-MOVING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE PRECIP COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS LGT RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA THIS EVENING...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE
TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX BY ARND 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
NOW SUPPORT TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND BASE OF UPPER LOW
OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG
NEG TILTED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THRU TUE EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN WV LOOP THIS EVENING OVR S
OHIO. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE. BLEND OF MDL
DATA SUPPORT OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMTS OVR THE HIGHER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA. MARGINAL BLYR
TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE SNOW /ROUGHLY BTWN 09Z-15Z/ EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO REDEVELOP UPON APPROACH OF SECOND SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS
INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN MIDDAY TUES AND TUES EVENING. MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS
NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHERN PA IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 082239
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 22Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN REGION OF NIL
WEATHER...THE CALM BEFORE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HARD TO CALL IT A STORM PER SE AS A SLOW-MOVING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE PRECIP COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS LGT RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA THIS EVENING...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE
TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX BY ARND 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
NOW SUPPORT TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND BASE OF UPPER LOW
OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG
NEG TILTED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THRU TUE EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN WV LOOP THIS EVENING OVR S
OHIO. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE. BLEND OF MDL
DATA SUPPORT OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMTS OVR THE HIGHER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA. MARGINAL BLYR
TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE SNOW /ROUGHLY BTWN 09Z-15Z/ EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO REDEVELOP UPON APPROACH OF SECOND SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS
INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN MIDDAY TUES AND TUES EVENING. MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS
NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHERN PA IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDS OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSUR DEVELOPS AND DEEPENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 082239
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 22Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN REGION OF NIL
WEATHER...THE CALM BEFORE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HARD TO CALL IT A STORM PER SE AS A SLOW-MOVING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE PRECIP COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS LGT RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA THIS EVENING...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE
TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX BY ARND 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
NOW SUPPORT TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND BASE OF UPPER LOW
OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG
NEG TILTED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THRU TUE EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN WV LOOP THIS EVENING OVR S
OHIO. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE. BLEND OF MDL
DATA SUPPORT OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMTS OVR THE HIGHER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA. MARGINAL BLYR
TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE SNOW /ROUGHLY BTWN 09Z-15Z/ EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO REDEVELOP UPON APPROACH OF SECOND SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS
INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN MIDDAY TUES AND TUES EVENING. MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS
NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHERN PA IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDS OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSUR DEVELOPS AND DEEPENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 082239
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 22Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD SOMERSET CO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN REGION OF NIL
WEATHER...THE CALM BEFORE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HARD TO CALL IT A STORM PER SE AS A SLOW-MOVING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE PRECIP COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS LGT RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA THIS EVENING...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE
TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX BY ARND 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
NOW SUPPORT TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.

A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND BASE OF UPPER LOW
OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG
NEG TILTED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THRU TUE EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN WV LOOP THIS EVENING OVR S
OHIO. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE. BLEND OF MDL
DATA SUPPORT OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMTS OVR THE HIGHER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA. MARGINAL BLYR
TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS.

AFTER AN EXPECTED LULL IN THE SNOW /ROUGHLY BTWN 09Z-15Z/ EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO REDEVELOP UPON APPROACH OF SECOND SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS
INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN MIDDAY TUES AND TUES EVENING. MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS
NCAR MESO ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHERN PA IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDS OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSUR DEVELOPS AND DEEPENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN REGION OF NIL
WEATHER...THE CALM BEFORE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HARD TO CALL IT A STORM PER SE AS A SLOW- MOVING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDS OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSUR DEVELOPS AND DEEPENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081750
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1250 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP LOW
OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081256
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
LONG- DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP LOW
OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081256
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
LONG- DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP LOW
OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 081256
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
LONG- DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP LOW
OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
652 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WED. A LONG-
DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A LOT GOING ON AS OF 3 AM. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH
THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA. HIGH CLDS OVER CENTRAL PA.
MID LVL CLDS OVER THE OH VLY SHOWING SOME COOLING.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP
LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 081152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
652 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WED. A LONG-
DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A LOT GOING ON AS OF 3 AM. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH
THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA. HIGH CLDS OVER CENTRAL PA.
MID LVL CLDS OVER THE OH VLY SHOWING SOME COOLING.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP
LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
652 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WED. A LONG-
DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A LOT GOING ON AS OF 3 AM. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH
THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA. HIGH CLDS OVER CENTRAL PA.
MID LVL CLDS OVER THE OH VLY SHOWING SOME COOLING.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP
LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE... SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 081005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WED. A LONG-
DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A LOT GOING ON AS OF 3 AM. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH
THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA. HIGH CLDS OVER CENTRAL PA.
MID LVL CLDS OVER THE OH VLY SHOWING SOME COOLING.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP
LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FADING HIGH PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA /KLNS
AND KMDT/.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA TODAY...SPREADING
SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS MID AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...
BUT MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU-FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 080910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY WED. A LONG-
DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A LOT GOING ON AS OF 3 AM. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH
THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA. HIGH CLDS OVER CENTRAL PA.
MID LVL CLDS OVER THE OH VLY SHOWING SOME COOLING.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A DEEP
LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES NE...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. TIMING WAS QUITE GOOD.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER DARK.

LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST AMTS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. POSTED AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

WHILE THE SNOW COULD START AS RAIN...WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION
CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST
PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY PERIOD.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER 05Z TUE FOR
OUR 3 SE COUNTIES.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE WEST...WILL
GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COMPLEX
EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS HAVE WATCH
IN JUST THE HIGHEST AREA OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL. AGAIN...NOT A LOT
TO WORK WITH...BUT USED THE LOCATION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND TREND
OF MODELS ALONG WITH WPC GRAPHICS AND OTHERS TO KEY ON SMALL AREA
OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN LATER ON WED.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA /KLNS
AND KMDT/.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA...SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW INTO WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...SPREADING EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES MONDAY THROUGH 00Z...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN HERE JUST AROUND 00Z.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...BUT MAINLY
LIGHT...SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS IN THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 080335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT PTCLDY SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM AFFECTING THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW
SINKING SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE
A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
AREAS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO
ARND 20F...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA /KLNS
AND KMDT/.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA...SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW INTO WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...SPREADING EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES MONDAY THROUGH 00Z...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN HERE JUST AROUND 00Z.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...BUT MAINLY
LIGHT...SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS IN THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 080052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE SE
COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SINKING SE
ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO ARND 20F...ESP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA /KLNS
AND KMDT/.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA...SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW INTO WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...SPREADING EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES MONDAY THROUGH 00Z...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN HERE JUST AROUND 00Z.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...BUT MAINLY
LIGHT...SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS IN THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 080052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE SE
COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SINKING SE
ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO ARND 20F...ESP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA /KLNS
AND KMDT/.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA...SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW INTO WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...SPREADING EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES MONDAY THROUGH 00Z...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN HERE JUST AROUND 00Z.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...BUT MAINLY
LIGHT...SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS IN THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 080052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE SE
COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SINKING SE
ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO ARND 20F...ESP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA /KLNS
AND KMDT/.

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE AREA...SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW INTO WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...SPREADING EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES MONDAY THROUGH 00Z...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN HERE JUST AROUND 00Z.

THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...BUT MAINLY
LIGHT...SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
BREAKS IN THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...EXPECT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS.
WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.
THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 072340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
640 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE SE
COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SINKING SE
ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO ARND 20F...ESP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 072340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
640 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE SE
COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SINKING SE
ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO ARND 20F...ESP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 072340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
640 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUPPORT MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM
WIND THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SOME THICKER CIRRUS
ASSOC WITH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE SE
COUNTIES. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SINKING SE
ACROSS THE GRT LKS. MDL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL NO DOUBT DIP TO ARND 20F...ESP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW 900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN BANDS/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES MON EVENING AND DURING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF
TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP TUE AM. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3 INCHES/12
HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING THIS PAST
FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 072043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

A STRENGTHENING SFC AND UPPER LOW /JUST E OF MYRTLE BEACH SC LATE
THIS AFTN/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...OFF THE VA COAST LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BRUSHING THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP AND WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OCCURS LATE.

CONSENSUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW
900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN SNOW BAND/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE ON LOCATION OF THE SNOW...BUT MODERATE ON THE AMOUNTS
WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3
INCHES/12 HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING
THIS PAST FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 072026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
326 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

A STRENGTHENING SFC AND UPPER LOW /JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SC
LATE TODAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...OFF THE VA COAST LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BRUSHING THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP AND WIND.FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OCCURS LATE.

CONSENSUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW
900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN SNOW BAND/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE ON LOCATION OF THE SNOW...BUT MODERATE ON THE AMOUNTS
WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3
INCHES/12 HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING
THIS PAST FALL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY PHASE-IN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW WITHIN A BROAD/ANOMALOUS MEAN TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
COMPLEX EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN A COMPLICATED/LOWER CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
DESPITE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE IS STILL
A SOME SPREAD REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE QPF
PLACEMENT AND LOCATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT INTRODUCE FURTHER
COMPLEXITY TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGING SNOW FCST. IN THIS KIND OF
FORECAST DILEMMA WITH VARYING MODEL SIMULATIONS AND SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES...WE CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE
STRATEGY FOR FCST SNOW AMOUNTS BY INCREMENTALLY NUDGING TOWARD A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TOWARD A
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL COMPILED OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
3+ INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SHADED TOWARD THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAXIMUM FCST SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 072016
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

A STRENGTHENING SFC AND UPPER LOW /JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SC
LATE TODAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...OFF THE VA COAST LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BRUSHING THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP AND WIND.FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OCCURS LATE.

CONSENUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW
900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN SNOW BAND/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE ON LOCATION OF THE SNOW...BUT MODERATE ON THE AMOUNTS
WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3
INCHES/12 HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING
THIS PAST FALL/.

MORE DETAILS ON THIS TO FOLLOW...WITH AN UPDATED SHORT AND LONG-
TERM SECTION OF THE AFD BY 21Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 072016
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

A STRENGTHENING SFC AND UPPER LOW /JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SC
LATE TODAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...OFF THE VA COAST LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BRUSHING THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP AND WIND.FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OCCURS LATE.

CONSENUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW
900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN SNOW BAND/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE ON LOCATION OF THE SNOW...BUT MODERATE ON THE AMOUNTS
WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3
INCHES/12 HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING
THIS PAST FALL/.

MORE DETAILS ON THIS TO FOLLOW...WITH AN UPDATED SHORT AND LONG-
TERM SECTION OF THE AFD BY 21Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 072016
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

A STRENGTHENING SFC AND UPPER LOW /JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SC
LATE TODAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...OFF THE VA COAST LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BRUSHING THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP AND WIND.FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OCCURS LATE.

CONSENUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
POWERFUL 976 MB SFC LOW MOVES NE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND CAPE COD...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DUAL...TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN UP
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH OVC SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS BUT PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS JUST
TO THE EAST.

WET BULB ZERO ELEVATION CLOSE TO THE SFC PAINTS A SNOW...RATHER
THAN RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST PLACES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SUSQ VALLEY AT OR BELOW
900 FT MSL.

LATEST SREF AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET TIME OF
THE SNOW - LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAURELS...WHILE THE
GEFS MEAN IS 2-3 HOURS SLOWER. A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING
/BUT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT MSL AND HIGHER SINCE HIGH TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE PRECIP BEGINNING WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP /IN ONE OR TWO SLOW
MOVING AND RATHER NARROW FGEN SNOW BAND/ DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE ON LOCATION OF THE SNOW...BUT MODERATE ON THE AMOUNTS
WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE LONG
DURATION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED DON/T FALL INTO
OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AND ARE ONLY
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OF 3
INCHES/12 HOURS /2 INCHES/12 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ BEGINNING
THIS PAST FALL/.

MORE DETAILS ON THIS TO FOLLOW...WITH AN UPDATED SHORT AND LONG-
TERM SECTION OF THE AFD BY 21Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH
CLDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
/KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
NW EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC SFC LOW. SOME MID-LEVEL
ALTO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WRN PENN TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOWERING TO BORDERLINE MVFR THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
THE W MTNS /KJST AND KBFD/.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU AND FRIDAY...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
OCCURS LATE. CONSENUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALLY DIMMING THE
SUN. OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPLENDID MID WINTER AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...COMPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN
7 AND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL /WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 40S/. ELSEWHERE...THE MERCURY IS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

VARYING COVERAGE OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED THIS MID
AFTERNOON HOUR...WITH SOME ALTO CU DEVELOPING/DRIFTING NNE ACROSS
FAR NWRN PENN.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
OCCURS LATE. CONSENUS ALL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALLY DIMMING THE
SUN. OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 071853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN 6 AND
8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
FORECAST AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH /ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST/.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR SOME TIME AS A
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE EASTERN US AND
BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWY AND EVENTUALLY MUCH COLDER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALLY DIMMING THE
SUN. OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 071853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN 6 AND
8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
FORECAST AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH /ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST/.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR SOME TIME AS A
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE EASTERN US AND
BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWY AND EVENTUALLY MUCH COLDER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALLY DIMMING THE
SUN. OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071740
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1240 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN 6 AND
8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
FORECAST AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH /ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST/.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR SOME TIME AS A
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE EASTERN US AND
BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWY AND EVENTUALLY MUCH COLDER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALY DIMMING THE SUN.
OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 071740
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1240 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN 6 AND
8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
FORECAST AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH /ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST/.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR SOME TIME AS A
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE EASTERN US AND
BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWY AND EVENTUALLY MUCH COLDER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALY DIMMING THE SUN.
OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071740
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1240 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...AND TEMPS BETWEEN 6 AND
8 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
FORECAST AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH /ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST/.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR SOME TIME AS A
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE EASTERN US AND
BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWY AND EVENTUALLY MUCH COLDER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WE/LL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES /KLNS AND KMDT/ WILL
SEE A THICKER SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS OCCASIONALY DIMMING THE SUN.
OVERALL...A NICE FLYING DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CARVER OUT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071730
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1230 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. A MUCH COLDER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE..ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN US RIDGE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT BEING
REPLACED BY A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. COLD
AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK
REINFORCED INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

RESIDUAL SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON WED SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LKLY OVER THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO ARE PROBABLE SAT-SUN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PROJECTED
MINIMUM WC VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

SOME FOG AT LNS AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071212
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH
TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

WHILE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK WILL PRESENT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNT PROBLEMS..THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE GEFS
IS MADE TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECENS IS EVEN
COLDER BRINGING A CHUNK OF -25C/850MB AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS IS NOT IN
YET...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAD JUST 4 ABOVE FOR A MAX IN BRADFORD NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO A SURE BET.

GOING TO BE A CHILLY VALENTINE`S DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

SOME FOG AT LNS AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 071212
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH
TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

WHILE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK WILL PRESENT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNT PROBLEMS..THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE GEFS
IS MADE TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECENS IS EVEN
COLDER BRINGING A CHUNK OF -25C/850MB AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS IS NOT IN
YET...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAD JUST 4 ABOVE FOR A MAX IN BRADFORD NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO A SURE BET.

GOING TO BE A CHILLY VALENTINE`S DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

SOME FOG AT LNS AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH
TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

WHILE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK WILL PRESENT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNT PROBLEMS..THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE GEFS
IS MADE TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECENS IS EVEN
COLDER BRINGING A CHUNK OF -25C/850MB AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS IS NOT IN
YET...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAD JUST 4 ABOVE FOR A MAX IN BRADFORD NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO A SURE BET.

GOING TO BE A CHILLY VALENTINE`S DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

SOME FOG AT LNS NOW...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH
TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

WHILE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK WILL PRESENT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNT PROBLEMS..THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE GEFS
IS MADE TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECENS IS EVEN
COLDER BRINGING A CHUNK OF -25C/850MB AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS IS NOT IN
YET...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAD JUST 4 ABOVE FOR A MAX IN BRADFORD NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO A SURE BET.

GOING TO BE A CHILLY VALENTINE`S DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

SOME FOG AT LNS NOW...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH
TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

WHILE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK WILL PRESENT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNT PROBLEMS..THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE GEFS
IS MADE TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECENS IS EVEN
COLDER BRINGING A CHUNK OF -25C/850MB AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS IS NOT IN
YET...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAD JUST 4 ABOVE FOR A MAX IN BRADFORD NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO A SURE BET.

GOING TO BE A CHILLY VALENTINE`S DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

SOME FOG AT LNS NOW...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST A FEW HIGH CLDS
LATE TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070904
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
404 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD
DAY TODAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH
TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SKIES ARE ALMOST PERFECTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SQUEEZING IN ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN US AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ONSET OF WHAT AT LEAST
INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON A TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY NERN US.

THE SREF WAS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP MONDAY...WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. I USED OUR BLENDED MODEL POPS WHICH
ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DRY SREF FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES.

IN GENERAL I CUT THE ALREADY LIGHT WPC-GUIDANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BY ABOUT HALF GIVEN THAT SKIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
WITH PRECIP RATES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THAT USUALLY MAKES IT HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK TO MUCH MORE THAN
GRASSY SURFACES...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE IT DOES NOT MIX WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT...POSSIBLY MODERATE PRECIP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHICH PERIOD WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS THAT
MIGHT WARRANT HEADLINES. THE GEFS SHOWS AT BEST A 30% PROB OF HALF
INCH QPF IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE ECENS IS
SIMILARLY LOW KEY REGARDING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUM
SNOW...TAKING 6 DAYS TO REACH 6 INCH TOTALS...AND THOSE ARE IN THE
USUAL LAKE EFFECT AND LAUREL HIGHLAND UPSLOPE AREAS...NOT
NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z GFS COMES THE CLOSEST TO ZEROING IN ON A THREAT
AREA...SHOWING THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW HELPING
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. IT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OF FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH THE GEFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST IN PORTRAYING. THE ECENS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME HAS A
MUCH LESS VIRILE DEPICTION OF THIS WRAP-BACK INTO THE SERN AREAS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE SIMILARLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIG SNOW OVER SERN ZONES. IT ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT THE BEST PERIODS FOR THE MOST QPF...BUT
A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.

WHILE THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK WILL PRESENT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNT PROBLEMS..THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE GEFS
IS MADE TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECENS IS EVEN
COLDER BRINGING A CHUNK OF -25C/850MB AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS IS NOT IN
YET...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAD JUST 4 ABOVE FOR A MAX IN BRADFORD NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO A SURE BET.

GOING TO BE A CHILLY VALENTINE`S DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

SOME HZ/FOG POSSIBLE AT LNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST
A FEW HIGH CLDS TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

SOME HZ/FOG POSSIBLE AT LNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST
A FEW HIGH CLDS TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

SOME HZ/FOG POSSIBLE AT LNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST
A FEW HIGH CLDS TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

SOME HZ/FOG POSSIBLE AT LNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN JUST
A FEW HIGH CLDS TODAY. NICE DAY FOR EARLY FEB.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 09Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS
AGAINST IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 09Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS
AGAINST IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 09Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS
AGAINST IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 070336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 070336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062349
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS PEELING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDERNEATH
A NARROW SFC RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN
BETWEEN DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER
LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FCST AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062349
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS PEELING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDERNEATH
A NARROW SFC RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN
BETWEEN DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER
LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FCST AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062349
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
649 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS PEELING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDERNEATH
A NARROW SFC RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN
BETWEEN DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER
LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FCST AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 062344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
644 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
644 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
644 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 062129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
429 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST
IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF
PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062030
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 062030
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 062030
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061815
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061815
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061815
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY
AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC LAYERED MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL AC/CI SHOULD PEEL OFF THE EAST
AND ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SW FLOW AND DRY
AIR...BUST POTENTIAL IS TO THE UPSIDE FOR MAX T. AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BASED ON HOURLY
TRENDS. M/CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS
COULD GO LOWER THAN FCST..AND WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THAT AS WELL.
OVERALL PRETTY QUIET WX TO START WHAT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD
FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS WRN SXNS/ZOB AIRSPACE...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...WDSPRD IFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE...MVFR-VFR CENTRAL/EAST. SFC
WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
635 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THERE ARE NO REPORTING STATIONS
SHOWING ANY KIND OF PRECIP UPSTREAM...AND WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPARSE I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE
MONTH.

WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LVL CLDS TO THE WEST.

12Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER VA WILL KEEP VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
635 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THERE ARE NO REPORTING STATIONS
SHOWING ANY KIND OF PRECIP UPSTREAM...AND WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPARSE I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE
MONTH.

WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LVL CLDS TO THE WEST.

12Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER VA WILL KEEP VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
635 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THERE ARE NO REPORTING STATIONS
SHOWING ANY KIND OF PRECIP UPSTREAM...AND WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPARSE I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE
MONTH.

WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LVL CLDS TO THE WEST.

12Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER VA WILL KEEP VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061105
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THERE ARE NO REPORTING STATIONS
SHOWING ANY KIND OF PRECIP UPSTREAM...AND WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPARSE I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE
MONTH.

WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LVL CLDS TO THE WEST.

09Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 061105
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THERE ARE NO REPORTING STATIONS
SHOWING ANY KIND OF PRECIP UPSTREAM...AND WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPARSE I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE
MONTH.

WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LVL CLDS TO THE WEST.

09Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 061105
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THERE ARE NO REPORTING STATIONS
SHOWING ANY KIND OF PRECIP UPSTREAM...AND WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPARSE I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE
MONTH.

WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND
GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST
READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LVL CLDS TO THE WEST.

09Z TAFS SENT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST.

WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





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