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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241720
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly sunny skies and warm today. Most locations will range
through the 70s with much of eastern and southeastern areas toping
the 80 degree mark lat this afternoon.

No models show any rain today. The 11Z HRRR showed an isolated
shower or two in extreme southeastern areas but not worth
mentioning and low probability event. But cannot completely rule
out a stray shower over Schuylkill or Lancaster County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Should be a beautiful evening. Mostly clear good time to spin
around outside. There could be some patch fog in some
valleys...better chance in eastern/southeastern areas.

Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
Enjoy that while it lasts.

Wednesday will be a pleasant and dry summer day. The first of
many to come over the next 3-7 days. Most areas will
top 80F in the afternoon. It will also be the last of
the relatively dry days as moisture keeps coming in and overnight
Wednesday into Thursday will be a bit more stickier as the
humidity begins to rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly
clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots
this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the
southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening.

Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very
isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this
afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our
east.

Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of
fog in the valleys of the southeast.

We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Grumm





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241418
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1018 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

Mostly sunny skies and warm today. Most locations will range
through the 70s with much of eastern and southeastern areas toping
the 80 degree mark lat this afternoon.

No models show any rain today. The 11Z HRRR showed an isolated
shower or two in extreme southeastern areas but not worth
mentioning and low probability event. But cannot completely rule
out a stray shower over Schuylkill or Lancaster County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Should be a beautiful evening. Mostly clear good time to spin
around outside. There could be some patch fog in some
valleys...better chance in eastern/southeastern areas.

Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
Enjoy that while it lasts.

Wednesday will be a pleasant and dry summer day. The first of
many to come over the next 3-7 days. Most areas will
top 80F in the afternoon. It will also be the last of
the relatively dry days as moisture keeps coming in and overnight
Wednesday into Thursday will be a bit more stickier as the
humidity begins to rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main change to the 12Z TAF package is VCSH for the
LNS and MDT TAF sites.

Earlier discussion below.

Still a breeze in spots. No fog expected now that we have
some breeze.

Overall a nice spring day with VFR conditions. Perhaps
a shower across the far east.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Martin





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240638
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with isolated showers each afternoon and
evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday
weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper low will slide up to Boston harbor today. The cooler air
aloft will still result in some instability showers this
afternoon. LI`s barely go negative - probably because all the
instability will be below 10kft. A cap about that high or even
lower should keep things suppressed. But, a few shra could pop
over the ridges - mainly in the SE third of the area - and drift
SSE. will hold POPs to 20s east of the Main Stem Susquehanna
River. Otherwise, the ridging starting to translate eastward will
keep the cu down over western PA. Maxes should get back to where
they were today and maybe add two degrees due to less clouds and
very slightly warmer 8H temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
After any diurnal convection dwindles at or before sunset, the
rest of the night should be quiet. Some patchy fog is possible but
dewpoints fairly low/dry. Sinking motion is maximized on Wednesday
as the upper ridge is nearly overhead. It should be a good day to
make some vitamin D. We should add another 2-4F onto the maxes
from Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still a few light showers across the se as of 230 am.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Regional radar mosaic at 00Z shows the last of the
diurnally-driven showers falling apart over southern Pa. For much
of central Pa, confidence in vfr conds overnight is high. However,
fog is a concern across portions of southern Pa, esp where rain
fell earlier today. The dwpt depression at KMDT is only 6 degrees
at 23Z, and with clearing skies developing toward sunset it`s an
ideal setup for fog. Current hrrr and lamp guidance not indicating
any vis restrictions there this evening and only mvfr
restrictions late tonight, but felt compelled to paint a more
pessimistic picture in the TAF. Current dwpt depressions and SREF
probs suggest KLNS may also experience some fog late tonight.
Elsewhere, the prospects of sig vis reductions appear low
overnight.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday,
bringing a near certainty of widespread VFR conds.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240056
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
856 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers tracking south of mason dixon line at this hour...with the
majority of central PA slated to remain dry overnight. Only
exception will be the far east...still in close enough proximity
to cyclonic flow aloft associated with coastal Mid Atlantic upper
low...which will keep a slgt chc to chc showers going overnight
from Schuylkill County southward to York/Lancaster Counties. The
remainder of central PA will see at least partial clearing. In
areas which saw rain Mon afternoon.. increased chance of patchy
valley fog.

The aforementioned cyclonic circulation and low heights/low
freezing levels (8.5k feet) around offshore upper low circulation
created rare NE to SW storm tracks this evening...with one
prolific hail producer in Lancaster/York Counties. Red Lion saw
the ground whitened by 4-5 minutes of pea to nickle sized hail.
Very weak environmental winds but southwest propogating cold pools
produced local 30+ mph wind gusts with isolated tree damage...and
an already delapidated structure in Lancaster County was further
damaged.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks to be a generally good day. Low probability of
precipitation. Mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising heights as the
low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the same time a
weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of Canada into
the rising heights aloft. The models use this to develop scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening. Precip
confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts moving into
ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regional radar mosaic at 00Z shows the last of the
diurnally-driven showers falling apart over southern Pa. For much
of central Pa, confidence in vfr conds overnight is high. However,
fog is a concern across portions of southern Pa, esp where rain
fell earlier today. The dwpt depression at KMDT is only 6 degrees
at 23Z, and with clearing skies developing toward sunset it`s an
ideal setup for fog. Current hrrr and lamp guidance not indicating
any vis restrictions there this evening and only mvfr
restrictions late tonight, but felt compelled to paint a more
pessimistic picture in the TAF. Current dwpt depressions and SREF
probs suggest KLNS may also experience some fog late tonight.
Elsewhere, the prospects of sig vis reductions appear low
overnight.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday,
bringing a near certainty of widespread VFR conds.


OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240002
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
802 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms slowly diminishing across
southern half of central PA this evening. Cyclonic circulation and
low heights around offshore upper low circulation created rare NE
to SW storm tracks this evening...with one prolific hail producer
in Lancaster/York Counties. Red Lion saw the ground whitened by
4-5 minutes of pea to nickle sized hail. Very weak environmental
winds but southwest propogating cold pools produced local 30+ mph
wind gusts with isolated tree damage...and an already delapidated
structure in Lancaster County was further damaged.

HRRR continues the current trend of the regional radar mosaic in
dissipating showers completely by late evening. Most areas will clear
out overnight. In areas of rain this afternoon..increased chance
of patchy valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks to be a generally good day. Low probability of
precipitation. Mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising heights as the
low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the same time a
weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of Canada into
the rising heights aloft. The models use this to develop scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening. Precip
confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts moving into
ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regional radar mosaic at 00Z shows the last of the
diurnally-driven showers falling apart over southern Pa. For much
of central Pa, confidence in vfr conds overnight is high. However,
fog is a concern across portions of southern Pa, esp where rain
fell earlier today. The dwpt depression at KMDT is only 6 degrees
at 23Z, and with clearing skies developing toward sunset it`s an
ideal setup for fog. Current hrrr and lamp guidance not indicating
any vis restrictions there this evening and only mvfr
restrictions late tonight, but felt compelled to paint a more
pessimistic picture in the TAF. Current dwpt depressions and SREF
probs suggest KLNS may also experience some fog late tonight.
Elsewhere, the prospects of sig vis reductions appear low
overnight.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday,
bringing a near certainty of widespread VFR conds.


OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231725
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
125 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Showers are developing as expected with the more organized band
over Schuykill County. This band is headed toward the Harrisburg
area and showers are forming west of it. There is a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the York-Harrisburg-Lancaster area in
the next few hours. HRRR gets these out after about 5-6 PM.

A second band is less organized over central areas and shows less
organization. Cannot rule out isolated showers this afternoon in
central areas through late afternoon.

Farther north and west chance of showers is very low.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Most areas will clear out overnight. In areas of rain this
afternoon increased chance patchy valley fog.

Tuesday looks to be a generally good day. Low probability of
precipitation. Mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising
heights as the low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the
same time a weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of
Canada into the rising heights aloft. The models use this to
develop showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening.
Precip confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts
moving into ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A band of rain showers has developed in southeast areas. The
threat of showers and thunderstorms has increased for KSEG-KMDT-
KLNS-THV area this afternoon as the line of showers to the
northeast is heading toward the region.

MVFR possible in the showers this afternoon. There is a risk of
some more widely scattered showers and storms in central areas
from KIPT to KJST.

Most or all activity should diminish before sunset. Mainly VFR
overnight perhaps patchy MVFR in some valleys.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Grumm





000
FXUS61 KCTP 231143
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Classic rule of thumb calls for fog after it rains during the day
and skies clear at night with light winds, and that`s what we are
seeing in many locations tonight. We issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for the next few hours mainly over central and northern areas.

Model agreement is good with respect to the upper low bottoming
out around Cape Hatteras today, with the cyclonic circulation
growing to influence the pattern from New England down to the
Carolinas.

Daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft will conspire to
steepen lapse rates and help support scattered showers and
thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. Capes are
not expected to be very impressive and shear will be meager so the
anticipation is for pulse thunderstorm development.

HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southern 1/2-2/3
of the area for the best chance of additional rain through 24/00z
followed by a decreasing/drying trend into the overnight.

Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

The chances for rain will shrink steadily overnight, but with the
edge of the cyclonic circulation associated with the upper low
still slopping over eastern Pa, the chances for a shower never go
to zero over my far eastern zones. Lows will range from the mid
40s north to mid 50s south, which will be near to even a little
above normal in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Highs Tuesday will rise into the lower 70s over higher elevations
of the west and north, and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Other than a small chance for a lingering shower east, still on
the outer edge of the amazing late spring upper low, most areas
will be bright and dry as the warming trend really gets under way.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising
heights as the low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the
same time a weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of
Canada into the rising heights aloft. The models use this to
develop showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening.
Precip confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts
moving into ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some mid and high clouds above the fog...but the fog should
be gone here shortly.

12Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

As of 5 am...sites that saw some clearing quickly had dense
fog form.

Expect the fog to burn off by 12Z...given the mid May sun angle
and that most sites still have light breeze.

Given the cold air aloft...there could be a few showers around
the area...perhaps a rumble of thunder. VCTS in the TAFS.

Skies clear out tonight again.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230822
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
422 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Classic rule of thumb calls for fog after it rains during the day
and skies clear at night with light winds, and that`s what we are
seeing in many locations tonight. We issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for the next few hours mainly over central and northern areas.

Model agreement is good with respect to the upper low bottoming
out around Cape Hatteras today, with the cyclonic circulation
growing to influence the pattern from New England down to the
Carolinas.

Daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft will conspire to
steepen lapse rates and help support scattered showers and
thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. Capes are
not expected to be very impressive and shear will be meager so the
anticipation is for pulse thunderstorm development.

HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southern 1/2-2/3
of the area for the best chance of additional rain through 24/00z
followed by a decreasing/drying trend into the overnight.

Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

The chances for rain will shrink steadily overnight, but with the
edge of the cyclonic circulation associated with the upper low
still slopping over eastern Pa, the chances for a shower never go
to zero over my far eastern zones. Lows will range from the mid
40s north to mid 50s south, which will be near to even a little
above normal in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Highs Tuesday will rise into the lower 70s over higher elevations
of the west and north, and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Other than a small chance for a lingering shower east, still on
the outer edge of the amazing late spring upper low, most areas
will be bright and dry as the warming trend really gets under way.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising
heights as the low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the
same time a weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of
Canada into the rising heights aloft. The models use this to
develop showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening.
Precip confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts
moving into ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 23/06z TAFs through 24/06z | Issued 145 am EDT 5/23/16

Mid level clouds over south central PA at 130 am. Band of showers
over central NY moving sw.

Main issue overnight is where there is some clearing...there is
fog and ground fog. Expect a wide range of conditions overnight.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as
an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the
mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site
to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds.

As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough
instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did
not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance
of thunder /VCTS/.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230546
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
146 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On
radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of
central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of
upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough
diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of
Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm
in Warren.

The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed
quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours,
supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south
central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend
overnight, as upper low sinks south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperatures and humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 23/06z TAFs through 24/06z | Issued 145 am EDT 5/23/16

Mid level clouds over south central PA at 130 am. Band of showers
over central NY moving sw.

Main issue overnight is where there is some clearing...there is
fog and ground fog. Expect a wide range of conditions overnight.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as
an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the
mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site
to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds.

As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough
instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did
not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance
of thunder /VCTS/.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski





000
FXUS61 KCTP 230034
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
834 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On
radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of
central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of
upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough
diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of
Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm
in Warren.

The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed
quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours,
supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south
central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend
overnight, as upper low sinks south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperatures and humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 23/00z TAFs through 23/00z | Issued 735pm EDT 5/22/16

Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as
an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the
mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site
to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds.

As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough
instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did
not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance
of thunder /VCTS/.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/23-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski





000
FXUS61 KCTP 222029
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On
radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of
central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of
upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough
diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of
Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm
in Warren.

The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed
quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours,
supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south
central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend
overnight, as upper low sinks south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperatures and humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 22/18z TAFs through 23/18z | Issued 235pm EDT 5/22/16
The focus for restrictions will continue to be in the southwest
airspace with ocnl IFR cigs at JST. Radar shows steadier light in
this area with isold-sct shower activity across the remainder of
the area. Still favoring VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing at most
terminals tonight into Monday morning with a gradual north to
south drying pcpn trend.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Friday 5/23-5/27

Mon...Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs early southern 1/2. Sct showers with
isold tstm impacts possible sern 1/2 18-24z.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221858
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
18z radar shows light stratiform rain continuing across the Laurel
Highlands and South-Central Mtns with scattered instability showers
developing to the north of I-80 and moving NE-SW around large
upper trough circulation. Only minor changes were made to the
near term max/min/12hr NDFD forecast elements with the latest
update. The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has
performed quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past
24 hours, supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and
south central zones before a gradual north to south drying pcpn
trend occurs from late tonight into early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlatic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperaturesand humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 22/18z TAFs through 23/18z | Issued 235pm EDT 5/22/16
The focus for restrictions will continue to be in the southwest
airspace with ocnl IFR cigs at JST. Radar shows steadier light in
this area with isold-sct shower activity across the remainder of
the area. Still favoring VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing at most
terminals tonight into Monday morning with a gradual north to
south drying pcpn trend.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Friday 5/23-5/27

Mon...Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs early southern 1/2. Sct showers with
isold tstm impacts possible sern 1/2 18-24z.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Steinbugl





000
FXUS61 KCTP 221844
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
244 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18z radar shows light stratiform rain continuing across the Laurel
Highlands and South-Central Mtns with scattered instability showers
developing to the north of I-80 and moving NE-SW around large
upper trough circulation. Only minor changes were made to the
near term max/min/12hr NDFD forecast elements with the latest
update. The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has
performed quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past
24 hours, supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and
south central zones before a gradual north to south drying pcpn
trend occurs from late tonight into early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlatic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended is advertising the development of a western trough
and an eastern ridge by the middle of the upcoming week, finally
signaling the arrival of summer-like temperatures and like it or
not, humidity.

Evolution of the slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be
the focus early in the period and will keep the mention of a
shower possible over eastern areas even into Tuesday. But by mid
week the low will have given way to the first real surge in the
subtropical ridge of the season with the NAEFS advertising above
normal heights and temperatures from Wednesday right through the
Memorial Day weekend.

The broad wsw flow will also mean that remnant convection from
Midwestern MCS activity will become a threat as it slides toward
the nern U.S.. Timing at this range is impossible, but I`d expect
the activity to be mainly diurnally driven, tending to fade during
the evening and overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 22/18z TAFs through 23/18z | Issued 235pm EDT 5/22/16
The focus for restrictions will continue to be in the southwest
airspace with ocnl IFR cigs at JST. Radar shows steadier light in
this area with isold-sct shower activity across the remainder of
the area. Still favoring VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing at most
terminals tonight into Monday morning with a gradual north to
south drying pcpn trend.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Friday 5/23-5/27

Mon...Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs early southern 1/2. Sct showers with
isold tstm impacts possible sern 1/2 18-24z.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220547
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
147 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue into the
second half of the weekend. Rain chances will decrease early next
week with improving weather conditions. Temperatures will trend
noticeably warmer through mid week with most areas likely hitting
80 degrees for the first time this month heading into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Late evening water vapor loop showing a well-defined mid lvl vort
max over northwest Pa. Fairly widespread coverage of lgt rain/dz
within assoc moist easterly flow across Central Pa at 02Z. Next
shortwave will dive southward from eastern Ontario overnight,
refocusing the best lg scale forcing and steadiest rain over the
Central Mtns. Blend of latest near term models support up to an
additional half inch of rain overnight across portions of the
central and north central mtns, with significantly less across the
Susq Valley. Thick cloud cover and low dwpt depressions indicate
temps will remain basically steady overnight with lows in the u40s
to l50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Additional/re-developing showers are likely on Sunday, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough is reinforced by upstream height
falls, eventually closing off as it drops southward from PA into
the southern Mid-Atlantic. The relatively cold air aloft results
in a gradual erosion of stability with mid level lapse rates
forecast to rise to around 6-6.5 c/km. Latest mdl output suggests
cloud cover and numerous showers will hold temps down across the
central/south central mtns, diminishing the chc of tsra. However,
still thinking there will be enough brightening and assoc
destabilization across the nw counties to support a few pm tsra.

Temperatures should get a little warmer than today, but still
remain below normal for late May. Expect a decreasing trend in
shower activity tomorrow night from northwest to southeast, as
upper low sinks south of Pa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This forecast is headlined by a strong signal over the CONUS for
large scale pattern shift by the middle to end of the coming
week...finally signaling the arrival of near summer like weather
across the region. How we get there remains to be seen...but
today`s extended range EFS and deterministic models are in better
agreement over this evolution...which will be welcome news for
many should it hold sway heading into the upcoming holiday
weekend.

Evolution of the slowly filling upper low will be the main focus
early in the period...as today`s guidance meanders the closed low
from the mid Atlantic seaboard to southern New England from Monday
to Wednesday. This will keep unsettled conditions over much of PA
with at least a chance of showers invof the lifting upper low.

Upper ridging is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley
into western and central PA by Wednesday afternoon...bringing an
end to the blocky regime and a return to more seasonable
conditions. Much warmer conds expected from Wednesday onward as a
result. The zonal wsw flow may bring scattered showers or
thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday before massive
amplification of the upper ridge takes place Fri-Sat-Sun. GEFS and
ECWMF support this evolution...and have followed previous shifts
in soaring maxes well into the 80s from Wednesday onward. 5h 588
dm contour flirts with southeast PA by Sunday. This may be the
first very warm and humid air mass of the season...with a strong
ensemble signal for the pattern shift at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS sent.

Main change was to edge off the improvement some later
today. Hard to see much change before Monday.

Earlier discussion below.

Vort max moving through western PA will keep rain showers across
the area through Sunday morning. Expect IFR to MVFR conditions in
ceilings,rain and fog overnight. Winds will be light and
variable.

As the upper low pressure moved southeast of the state on Sunday,
expect rain showers to become more scattered with less of a
reduction in flight category. However, conditions may remain MVR
to IFR during the morning hours with gradual improvement through
the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Thursday 5/23-5/26

Mon...VFR/MVFR with sct showers with isold P.M. tsra impacts
possible ern 1/2.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220231
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1031 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue into the
second half of the weekend. Rain chances will decrease early next
week with improving weather conditions. Temperatures will trend
noticeably warmer through mid week with most areas likely hitting
80 degrees for the first time this month heading into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Late evening water vapor loop showing a well-defined mid lvl vort
max over northwest Pa. Fairly widespread coverage of lgt rain/dz
within assoc moist easterly flow across Central Pa at 02Z. Next
shortwave will dive southward from eastern Ontario overnight,
refocusing the best lg scale forcing and steadiest rain over the
Central Mtns. Blend of latest near term models support up to an
additional half inch of rain overnight across portions of the
central and north central mtns, with significantly less across the
Susq Valley. Thick cloud cover and low dwpt depressions indicate
temps will remain basically steady overnight with lows in the u40s
to l50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Additional/re-developing showers are likely on Sunday, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough is reinforced by upstream height
falls, eventually closing off as it drops southward from PA into
the southern Mid-Atlantic. The relatively cold air aloft results
in a gradual erosion of stability with mid level lapse rates
forecast to rise to around 6-6.5 c/km. Latest mdl output suggests
cloud cover and numerous showers will hold temps down across the
central/south central mtns, diminishing the chc of tsra. However,
still thinking there will be enough brightening and assoc
destabilization across the nw counties to support a few pm tsra.

Temperatures should get a little warmer than today, but still
remain below normal for late May. Expect a decreasing trend in
shower activity tomorrow night from northwest to southeast, as
upper low sinks south of Pa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This forecast is headlined by a strong signal over the CONUS for
large scale pattern shift by the middle to end of the coming
week...finally signaling the arrival of near summer like weather
across the region. How we get there remains to be seen...but
today`s extended range EFS and deterministic models are in better
agreement over this evolution...which will be welcome news for
many should it hold sway heading into the upcoming holiday
weekend.

Evolution of the slowly filling upper low will be the main focus
early in the period...as today`s guidance meanders the closed low
from the mid Atlantic seaboard to southern New England from Monday
to Wednesday. This will keep unsettled conditions over much of PA
with at least a chance of showers invof the lifting upper low.

Upper ridging is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley
into western and central PA by Wednesday afternoon...bringing an
end to the blocky regime and a return to more seasonable
conditions. Much warmer conds expected from Wednesday onward as a
result. The zonal wsw flow may bring scattered showers or
thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday before massive
amplification of the upper ridge takes place Fri-Sat-Sun. GEFS and
ECWMF support this evolution...and have followed previous shifts
in soaring maxes well into the 80s from Wednesday onward. 5h 588
dm contour flirts with southeast PA by Sunday. This may be the
first very warm and humid air mass of the season...with a strong
ensemble signal for the pattern shift at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
22/00z TAFs through 23/00z | Issued 730pm EDT 5/21/16

Vort max moving through western PA will keep rain showers across
the area through Sunday morning. Expect IFR to MVFR conditions in
ceilings,rain and fog overnight. Winds will be light and
variable.

As the upper low pressure moved southeast of the state on Sunday,
expect rain showers to become more scattered with less of a
reduction in flight category. However, conditions may remain MVR
to IFR during the morning hours with gradual improvement through
the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Thursday 5/22-5/26

Mon...VFR/MVFR with sct showers with isold P.M. tsra impacts
possible ern 1/2.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220044
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
844 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue into the
second half of the weekend. Rain chances will decrease early next
week with improving weather conditions. Temperatures will trend
noticeably warmer through mid week with most areas likely hitting
80 degrees for the first time this month heading into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Evening water vapor loop showing a well-defined mid lvl vort max
over western Pa. Fairly widespread coverage of lgt rain/dz within
assoc moist easterly flow across Central Pa at 00Z. Next shortwave
will dive southward from eastern Ontario overnight, refocusing the
best lg scale forcing and steadiest rain over the Central Mtns.
Blend of latest near term models support up to an additional half
inch of rain overnight across portions of the central and north
central mtns, with significantly less across the Susq Valley.
Thick cloud cover and low dwpt depressions indicate temps will
remain basically steady overnight with lows in the u40s to l50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Additional/re-developing showers are likely on Sunday, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough is reinforced by upstream height
falls, eventually closing off as it drops southward from PA into
the southern Mid-Atlantic. The relatively cold air aloft results
in a gradual erosion of stability with mid level lapse rates
forecast to rise to around 6-6.5 c/km. Latest mdl output suggests
cloud cover and numerous showers will hold temps down across the
central/south central mtns, diminishing the chc of tsra. However,
still thinking there will be enough brightening and assoc
destabilization across the nw counties to support a few pm tsra.

Temperatures should get a little warmer than today, but still
remain below normal for late May. Expect a decreasing trend in
shower activity tomorrow night from northwest to southeast, as
upper low sinks south of Pa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This forecast is headlined by a strong signal over the CONUS for
large scale pattern shift by the middle to end of the coming
week...finally signaling the arrival of near summer like weather
across the region. How we get there remains to be seen...but
today`s extended range EFS and deterministic models are in better
agreement over this evolution...which will be welcome news for
many should it hold sway heading into the upcoming holiday
weekend.

Evolution of the slowly filling upper low will be the main focus
early in the period...as today`s guidance meanders the closed low
from the mid Atlantic seaboard to southern New England from Monday
to Wednesday. This will keep unsettled conditions over much of PA
with at least a chance of showers invof the lifting upper low.

Upper ridging is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley
into western and central PA by Wednesday afternoon...bringing an
end to the blocky regime and a return to more seasonable
conditions. Much warmer conds expected from Wednesday onward as a
result. The zonal wsw flow may bring scattered showers or
thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday before massive
amplification of the upper ridge takes place Fri-Sat-Sun. GEFS and
ECWMF support this evolution...and have followed previous shifts
in soaring maxes well into the 80s from Wednesday onward. 5h 588
dm contour flirts with southeast PA by Sunday. This may be the
first very warm and humid air mass of the season...with a strong
ensemble signal for the pattern shift at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
22/00z TAFs through 23/00z | Issued 730pm EDT 5/21/16

Vort max moving through western PA will keep rain showers across
the area through Sunday morning. Expect IFR to MVFR conditions in
ceilings,rain and fog overnight. Winds will be light and
variable.

As the upper low pressure moved southeast of the state on Sunday,
expect rain showers to become more scattered with less of a
reduction in flight category. However, conditions may remain MVR
to IFR during the morning hours with gradual improvement through
the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Thursday 5/22-5/26

Mon...VFR/MVFR with sct showers with isold P.M. tsra impacts
possible ern 1/2.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220022
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
822 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue into the
second half of the weekend. Rain chances will decrease early next
week with improving weather conditions. Temperatures will trend
noticeably warmer through mid week with most areas likely hitting
80 degrees for the first time this month heading into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Evening water vapor loop showing a well-defined mid lvl vort max
over western Pa. Fairly widespread coverage of lgt rain/dz within
assoc moist easterly flow across Central Pa at 00Z. Next shortwave
will dive southward from eastern Ontario overnight, refocusing the
best lg scale forcing and steadiest rain over the Central Mtns.
Blend of latest near term models support up to an additional half
inch of rain overnight across portions of the central and north
central mtns, with significantly less across the Susq Valley.
Thick cloud cover and low dwpt depressions indicate temps will
remain basically steady overnight with lows in the u40s to l50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Additional/re-developing showers are likely on Sunday, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough is reinforced by upstream height
falls, eventually closing off as it drops southward from PA into
the southern Mid-Atlantic. The relatively cold air aloft results
in a gradual erosion of stability with mid level lapse rates
forecast to rise to around 6-6.5 c/km. Latest mdl output suggests
cloud cover and numerous showers will hold temps down across the
central/south central mtns, diminishing the chc of tsra. However,
still thinking there will be enough brightening and assoc
destabilization across the nw counties to support a few pm tsra.

Temperatures should get a little warmer than today, but still
remain below normal for late May. Expect a decreasing trend in
shower activity tomorrow night from northwest to southeast, as
upper low sinks south of Pa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This forecast is headlined by a strong signal over the CONUS for
large scale pattern shift by the middle to end of the coming
week...finally signaling the arrival of near summer like weather
across the region. How we get there remains to be seen...but
today`s extended range EFS and deterministic models are in better
agreement over this evolution...which will be welcome news for
many should it hold sway heading into the upcoming holiday
weekend.

Evolution of the slowly filling upper low will be the main focus
early in the period...as today`s guidance meanders the closed low
from the mid Atlantic seaboard to southern New England from Monday
to Wednesday. This will keep unsettled conditions over much of PA
with at least a chance of showers invof the lifting upper low.

Upper ridging is forecast to spread eastward from the Ohio Valley
into western and central PA by Wednesday afternoon...bringing an
end to the blocky regime and a return to more seasonable
conditions. Much warmer conds expected from Wednesday onward as a
result. The zonal wsw flow may bring scattered showers or
thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday before massive
amplification of the upper ridge takes place Fri-Sat-Sun. GEFS and
ECWMF support this evolution...and have followed previous shifts
in soaring maxes well into the 80s from Wednesday onward. 5h 588
dm contour flirts with southeast PA by Sunday. This may be the
first very warm and humid air mass of the season...with a strong
ensemble signal for the pattern shift at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
21/18z TAFs through 22/18z | Issued 230pm EDT 5/21/16
An unsettled pattern will continue into Sunday with ocnl showers
shifting from west to east across the airspace. A general
downward trend in vis/cigs is likely tonight into Sunday morning
with MVFR/IFR expanding in coverage. Limited improvement should
occur through 15-18z Sunday with VFR/MVFR into Sunday afternoon.
Surface winds from 90-140 degrees will take on a more northerly
component overnight and into Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday-Thursday 5/22-5/26

Sun...MVFR/IFR cigs with ocnl showers...bcmg MVFR/VFR. Isolated
P.M. tstm impacts possible sw 1/2.

Mon...VFR/MVFR with sct showers with isold P.M. tsra impacts
possible ern 1/2.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Steinbugl





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