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000
FXUS61 KCTP 212329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.
WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND
SOME SHOWERS AND FOG AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 212001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211904
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211444
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INFUSE
ADVANCED...TECHNOLOGICALLY-OBTAINED SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM
WITH REGARD TO POPS. MAXES SEEM ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A DEG OR
TWO HIGHER IN THE SUNNIER SE. BUT THE CONVECTION WILL CLOG UP THE
SKY. SO WILL KEEP THEM AS IS. DID ADD JUST ISOLD T IN THE SE FOR
THE AFTN - AS MENTIONED BEFORE - DUE TO THE SUN/HEATING...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND VISIBLE SHORT WAVE/FORCING.

9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211444
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INFUSE
ADVANCED...TECHNOLOGICALLY-OBTAINED SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM
WITH REGARD TO POPS. MAXES SEEM ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A DEG OR
TWO HIGHER IN THE SUNNIER SE. BUT THE CONVECTION WILL CLOG UP THE
SKY. SO WILL KEEP THEM AS IS. DID ADD JUST ISOLD T IN THE SE FOR
THE AFTN - AS MENTIONED BEFORE - DUE TO THE SUN/HEATING...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND VISIBLE SHORT WAVE/FORCING.

9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210729
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210729
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210657
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTERORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210332
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210332
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210251
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210251
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210251
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210251
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH KCLE AND KCVG AT 02Z TUES.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST SW OF KPIT.

TSRA HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO
SRN OHIO ATTM...WITHIN A POCKET OF 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 6.5C/KM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL
/WITH NARROW BANDS OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/ WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH ENHANCED LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 SWRLY JET MAX...A WEAK
SFC/LEE TROUGH...AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A
35 KTS SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD
AND NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE PROB OF RAIN WAS MODIFIED A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
80-100 POPS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
INITIAL/LIGHT SRLY SFC WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
842 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS
WRN OHIO THIS EVENING.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST EAST OF KCMH AT 00Z.

NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS VORT MAX...850-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE ON
THE ORDER OF 6.5C/KM...AND SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF TSRA. SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST
INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NEXT FEW TO SVRL HOURS...A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY...LOW-MID LEVEL AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ALLOWING ONLY SPRINKLES TO REACH THE
GROUND.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SFC/LEE
TROUGH AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 35 KTS
SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING A SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD AND
NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT IT WILL AT
LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIAL/LIGHT
SRLY SFC WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 210042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
842 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FILL IN
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE...THEN RE-FORMS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS
WRN OHIO THIS EVENING.

A COMPACT...BUT RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
WELL-DEFINED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGION 88D REFL LOOP
JUST EAST OF KCMH AT 00Z.

NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS VORT MAX...850-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE ON
THE ORDER OF 6.5C/KM...AND SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF TSRA. SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PENN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST
INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NEXT FEW TO SVRL HOURS...A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY...LOW-MID LEVEL AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ALLOWING ONLY SPRINKLES TO REACH THE
GROUND.

ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AN INJECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE VIA A
SSE FLOW OFF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SFC/LEE
TROUGH AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 35 KTS
SWRLY 850 MB JET TO BRING A SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS IN FROM MD AND
NRN VA.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS /AND PERHAPS THE LAURELS/ WHERE UP TO 2 OR 3 TENTHS IS
POSSIBLE.

WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT IT WILL AT
LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIAL/LIGHT
SRLY SFC WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT /WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6-6.5C/KM/ DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SUSQ VALLEY/.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE CURRENTLY
SEEING IN SUPPORT OF THE TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 202347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 23Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS
EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS
SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS
WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 21Z...JUST A FEW -SHRA ON RADAR AND WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 202149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 21Z...JUST A FEW -SHRA ON RADAR AND WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 202149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 21Z...JUST A FEW -SHRA ON RADAR AND WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONLY SLOWLY AS MOISTURE
WORKS DOWN FROM ABOVE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD BUT SHALLOW SFC LOW.
THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND SLIDE TO THE EAST THEN
RE-FORM/DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH CURRENTLY WILL LIGHTEN AND GO PRETTY MUCH
CALM AS THE LOW WASHES OUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WEST AND THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS LIKE
A SURE BET TO LOWER THE CIGS AT BFD AND JST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THERE AND
IFR MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND LINGER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AT IPT/LNS/MDT THIS EVENING...THEY SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SFC LOW HANGS OUT JUST OFF THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...CLOUDY AND DAMP/SHOWERY WEATHER AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 201945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONLY SLOWLY AS MOISTURE
WORKS DOWN FROM ABOVE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD BUT SHALLOW SFC LOW.
THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND SLIDE TO THE EAST THEN
RE-FORM/DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH CURRENTLY WILL LIGHTEN AND GO PRETTY MUCH
CALM AS THE LOW WASHES OUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WEST AND THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS LIKE
A SURE BET TO LOWER THE CIGS AT BFD AND JST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THERE AND
IFR MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND LINGER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AT IPT/LNS/MDT THIS EVENING...THEY SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SFC LOW HANGS OUT JUST OFF THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...CLOUDY AND DAMP/SHOWERY WEATHER AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201835
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING
MID-WEEK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY
SNOW ARE DIM.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
DOMINANT AT THE LONGEST OF RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONLY SLOWLY AS MOISTURE
WORKS DOWN FROM ABOVE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD BUT SHALLOW SFC LOW.
THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND SLIDE TO THE EAST THEN
RE-FORM/DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH CURRENTLY WILL LIGHTEN AND GO PRETTY MUCH
CALM AS THE LOW WASHES OUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WEST AND THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS LIKE
A SURE BET TO LOWER THE CIGS AT BFD AND JST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THERE AND
IFR MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND LINGER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AT IPT/LNS/MDT THIS EVENING...THEY SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SFC LOW HANGS OUT JUST OFF THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...CLOUDY AND DAMP/SHOWERY WEATHER AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201835
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING
MID-WEEK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY
SNOW ARE DIM.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
DOMINANT AT THE LONGEST OF RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONLY SLOWLY AS MOISTURE
WORKS DOWN FROM ABOVE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD BUT SHALLOW SFC LOW.
THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND SLIDE TO THE EAST THEN
RE-FORM/DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH CURRENTLY WILL LIGHTEN AND GO PRETTY MUCH
CALM AS THE LOW WASHES OUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WEST AND THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS LIKE
A SURE BET TO LOWER THE CIGS AT BFD AND JST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THERE AND
IFR MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND LINGER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AT IPT/LNS/MDT THIS EVENING...THEY SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SFC LOW HANGS OUT JUST OFF THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...CLOUDY AND DAMP/SHOWERY WEATHER AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 201515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL FILL IN AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BEFORE RE-
FORMING OFF THE COAST. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW OR LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW IN NRN INDIANA. LOCALLY...LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR
BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND PER LATEST OBS AND WEBCAMS. TEMPS
MAY BE HELD DOWN JUST A DEG OR TWO FROM CURR MAXES. WILL CONTINUE
TO PUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP OFF FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THICKENING UP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 201515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL FILL IN AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BEFORE RE-
FORMING OFF THE COAST. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW OR LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW IN NRN INDIANA. LOCALLY...LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR
BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND PER LATEST OBS AND WEBCAMS. TEMPS
MAY BE HELD DOWN JUST A DEG OR TWO FROM CURR MAXES. WILL CONTINUE
TO PUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP OFF FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THICKENING UP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201230
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
830 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL FILL IN AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BEFORE RE-
FORMING OFF THE COAST. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND ARE STARTING TO THICKEN UP.
HOWEVER...LATEST NEAR TERM GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL
VARY LATE AFTN IN MOST OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES PER THE VIRGA IN WRN/NRN PA...ACCUM RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN COS. TEMPS DID GET FROSTY
OVER THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE THE CLOUDS GOT LOW ENOUGH TO RE-RADIATE
SUFFICIENT OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AND HALT THE FALL AND EVEN
RISE TEMPS IN SOME PLACES.

PREV...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. INDEED...A BACK EDGE TO THE
THICKEST MID TO HIGH CLOUD DOES APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING FROM
NORTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING
PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
GLAKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S THROUGHOUT ON A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 201230
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
830 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL FILL IN AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BEFORE RE-
FORMING OFF THE COAST. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND ARE STARTING TO THICKEN UP.
HOWEVER...LATEST NEAR TERM GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP IT DRY UNTIL
VARY LATE AFTN IN MOST OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES PER THE VIRGA IN WRN/NRN PA...ACCUM RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN COS. TEMPS DID GET FROSTY
OVER THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE THE CLOUDS GOT LOW ENOUGH TO RE-RADIATE
SUFFICIENT OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AND HALT THE FALL AND EVEN
RISE TEMPS IN SOME PLACES.

PREV...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. INDEED...A BACK EDGE TO THE
THICKEST MID TO HIGH CLOUD DOES APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING FROM
NORTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING
PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
GLAKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S THROUGHOUT ON A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. INDEED...A BACK EDGE TO THE
THICKEST MID TO HIGH CLOUD DOES APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING FROM
NORTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING
PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
GLAKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S THROUGHOUT ON A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. INDEED...A BACK EDGE TO THE
THICKEST MID TO HIGH CLOUD DOES APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING FROM
NORTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING
PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
GLAKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S THROUGHOUT ON A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200838
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
438 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. INDEED...A BACK EDGE TO THE
THICKEST MID TO HIGH CLOUD DOES APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING FROM
NORTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING
PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL
GLAKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S THROUGHOUT ON A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE CLOUD SHIELD
WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. THIS MAY PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD FROST OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WILL
KEEP HEADLINES AS IS GIVEN LATEST MESONET READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY TO BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER SUSQ REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S AT THIS HOUR.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW
ZONES WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND
LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE CLOUD SHIELD
WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. THIS MAY PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD FROST OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WILL
KEEP HEADLINES AS IS GIVEN LATEST MESONET READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY TO BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER SUSQ REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S AT THIS HOUR.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW
ZONES WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND
LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE CLOUD SHIELD
WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. THIS MAY PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD FROST OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WILL
KEEP HEADLINES AS IS GIVEN LATEST MESONET READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY TO BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER SUSQ REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S AT THIS HOUR.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW
ZONES WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND
LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. THIS MAY PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD FROST OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WILL
KEEP HEADLINES AS IS GIVEN LATEST MESONET READINGS IN THE UPPER
30S FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY TO BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER SUSQ REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S AT THIS HOUR.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW
ZONES WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND
LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SPREADING ESE ACROSS THE STATE
WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB
THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM FORMING VERY EARLY
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SPREADING ESE ACROSS THE STATE
WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB
THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM FORMING VERY EARLY
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SPREADING ESE ACROSS THE STATE
WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB
THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM FORMING VERY EARLY
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SPREADING ESE ACROSS THE STATE
WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB
THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM FORMING VERY EARLY
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
842 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL SPREAD ESE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB
RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER
TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM
FORMING VERY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
842 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL SPREAD ESE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB
RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER
TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM
FORMING VERY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 192357
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 192357
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 192357
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDS /ESP W MTNS/ EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 192143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDS /ESP W MTNS/ EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
350 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS
LATE.

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AREA LATE
MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
350 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS
LATE.

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AREA LATE
MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS
LATE.

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AREA LATE
MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH
SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN
PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS
LATE.

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AREA LATE
MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191430
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO LATE MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE AS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SE...ADJUSTED CLOUD
GROUPS SOME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT
THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER
WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK. LOW STRATO
CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO
SLOW CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND
FROST DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7
KTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
THOUGH LOW STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ027-028-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/MARTIN/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191430
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO LATE MORNING UPDATE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE AS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SE...ADJUSTED CLOUD
GROUPS SOME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT
THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER
WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK. LOW STRATO
CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO
SLOW CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND
FROST DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7
KTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
THOUGH LOW STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ027-028-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/MARTIN/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
826 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE AS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SE...ADJUSTED CLOUD
GROUPS SOME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE
EAST COAST AS IT THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF
THE NEAR- TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK. LOW STRATO
CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO
SLOW CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND
FROST DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7
KTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
THOUGH LOW STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ027-028-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/MARTIN/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
826 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE AS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SE...ADJUSTED CLOUD
GROUPS SOME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE
EAST COAST AS IT THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF
THE NEAR- TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK. LOW STRATO
CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO
SLOW CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND
FROST DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7
KTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
THOUGH LOW STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ027-028-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/MARTIN/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT
THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. 8H
TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER
WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT
BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.
 LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW CLEARING
FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT INCREASE
OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THOUGH LOW
STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT
THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. 8H
TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER
WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT
BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.
 LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW CLEARING
FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT INCREASE
OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THOUGH LOW
STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT
THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. 8H
TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER
WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT
BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.
 LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW CLEARING
FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT INCREASE
OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THOUGH LOW
STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191042
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING UP THE EAST COAST AS IT
THEN TILTS NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. 8H
TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER
WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.

HAVE KEPT POPS DECREASING...AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE LAURELS AND NW
MTNS...THE EXPECTED P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT COMPLETELY HINDER ANY SNOW
GENERATION. THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE
AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT
BAY YET CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.
 LOW STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL NOSE NE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW CLEARING
FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY SLIGHT INCREASE
OF WIND FROM A POSSIBLE WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ONLY RESTRICTIONS ARE FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST IN THE
FORM OF MVFR CIGS. THESE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED...AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. BFD WILL BE THE BIG
HOLDOUT...WHERE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME
MAINLY VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THOUGH LOW
STRATOCU WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...CERU/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190721
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EAST AS IT
GOES NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING. 8H TEMPS
DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM...BUT
REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF
CLEARING.

EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...KEPT POPS
AOB 50 PCT AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS
AT BAY. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY SUN AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL ALLOW IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. BFD AND JST HAVE GONE
TO IFR WITH AOO AND UNV AT MVFR. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT JST WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
MID MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. EXPECT THE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO REDUCE TO MVFR BETWEEN
12Z TO 14Z. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE
MORNING WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190721
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EAST AS IT
GOES NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING. 8H TEMPS
DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM...BUT
REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF
CLEARING.

EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...KEPT POPS
AOB 50 PCT AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS
AT BAY. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY SUN AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM COLD AIR INTO PA BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL ALLOW IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. BFD AND JST HAVE GONE
TO IFR WITH AOO AND UNV AT MVFR. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT JST WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
MID MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. EXPECT THE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO REDUCE TO MVFR BETWEEN
12Z TO 14Z. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE
MORNING WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190602
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EAST AS IT
GOES NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING. 8H TEMPS
DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM...BUT
REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF
CLEARING.

EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...KEPT POPS
AOB 50 PCT AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS
AT BAY. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROADS GETTING SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY SUN AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR
MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK
CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK
UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS COLD AIR STREAMS IN TO PA BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER
TODAY...UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE IN
HEAVIER...BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL
STAY MAINLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS LIKE IT IS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD
SWING THROUGH THE EAST AS IT GOES NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE
COAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS STILL DECREASING. 8H TEMPS DIP TO
THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND
QUICKLY THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.
CLOUD TEMPS WILL BE BLOW FREEZING BUT WITHOUT MANY ICE
CRYSTALS...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN SNIZZLE. TEMP AT
BFD DOWN TO 39F BUT DEWPOINT STILL 36F. STILL EXPECT P-TYPE TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS. BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS
ACROSS THE COLDER HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND ONLY BACKS OFF A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS STAY ABOVE 32 FOR MOST PLACES AS WELL.
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...A FEW ROADS MAY GET
SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW
CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE
COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY
MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS COLD AIR STREAMS IN TO PA BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER
TODAY...UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE IN
HEAVIER...BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL
STAY MAINLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS LIKE IT IS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD
SWING THROUGH THE EAST AS IT GOES NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE
COAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS STILL DECREASING. 8H TEMPS DIP TO
THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND
QUICKLY THEREAFTER WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF CLEARING.
CLOUD TEMPS WILL BE BLOW FREEZING BUT WITHOUT MANY ICE
CRYSTALS...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN SNIZZLE. TEMP AT
BFD DOWN TO 39F BUT DEWPOINT STILL 36F. STILL EXPECT P-TYPE TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS. BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS
ACROSS THE COLDER HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND ONLY BACKS OFF A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS STAY ABOVE 32 FOR MOST PLACES AS WELL.
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...A FEW ROADS MAY GET
SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW
CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE
COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY
MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS COLD AIR STREAMS IN TO PA BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER
TODAY...UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE IN
HEAVIER...BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL
STAY MAINLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS
WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING AND THEREFORE SOME OF THE LLVL
INSTABILITY. THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS
LIKE IT IS INTO NWRN PA AND SHOULD SWING THROUGH AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SLOW LOSS OF BEST FORCING...WILL BRING POPS DOWN
10 PCT. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE
NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER. CLOUD TEMPS WILL BE
BLOW FREEZING BUT WITHOUT M/ANY ICE CRYSTALS...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
GENERATE MORE THAN SNIZZLE. STILL EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE LAURELS. BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS
THE COLDER HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND ONLY BACKS OFF A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS STAY ABOVE 32 FOR MOST PLACES AS WELL.
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...A FEW ROADS MAY GET
SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW
CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE
COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY
MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS COLD AIR STREAMS IN TO PA BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER
TODAY...UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE IN
HEAVIER...BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL
STAY MAINLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS
WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING AND THEREFORE SOME OF THE LLVL
INSTABILITY. THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS
LIKE IT IS INTO NWRN PA AND SHOULD SWING THROUGH AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SLOW LOSS OF BEST FORCING...WILL BRING POPS DOWN
10 PCT. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE
NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER. CLOUD TEMPS WILL BE
BLOW FREEZING BUT WITHOUT M/ANY ICE CRYSTALS...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
GENERATE MORE THAN SNIZZLE. STILL EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE LAURELS. BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS
THE COLDER HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND ONLY BACKS OFF A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS STAY ABOVE 32 FOR MOST PLACES AS WELL.
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...A FEW ROADS MAY GET
SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW
CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE
COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY
MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS COLD AIR STREAMS IN TO PA BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER
TODAY...UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT IFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE IN
HEAVIER...BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL
STAY MAINLY VFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190038
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS
WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING AND THEREFORE SOME OF THE LLVL
INSTABILITY. THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS
LIKE IT IS INTO NWRN PA AND SHOULD SWING THROUGH AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SLOW LOSS OF BEST FORCING...WILL BRING POPS DOWN
10 PCT. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE
NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER. COLUD TEMPS WILL BE
BLOW FREEZING BUT WITHOUT M/ANY ICE CRYSTALS...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
GENERATE MORE THAN SNIZZLE. STILL EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE LAURELS. BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS
THE COLDER HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND ONLY BACKS OFF A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS STAY ABOVE 32 FOR MOST PLACES AS WELL.
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...A FEW ROADS MAY GET
SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW
CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE
COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY
MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT NEAR A KELM TO KUNV AND KAOO LINE AT 1530Z WILL
PUSH TO A KAVP TO KMDT LINE BY 18Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MTNS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF A KJST TO KFIG AND KELZ LINE...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS DEEPENING COLD AIR SPREADS INTO THAT REGION.

MAINLY MVFR BKN-OVC STRATO CU WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS INVOF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT
AGL.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE CFRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20KT RANGE.

IFR WRN MTNS AND MVFR CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY MAINLY
VFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190038
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A CHILLY...STEADY RAIN FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS DURING THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS
WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING AND THEREFORE SOME OF THE LLVL
INSTABILITY. THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS
LIKE IT IS INTO NWRN PA AND SHOULD SWING THROUGH AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SLOW LOSS OF BEST FORCING...WILL BRING POPS DOWN
10 PCT. 8H TEMPS DIP TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS AT THE END OF THE
NEAR-TERM...BUT REBOUND QUICKLY THEREAFTER. COLUD TEMPS WILL BE
BLOW FREEZING BUT WITHOUT M/ANY ICE CRYSTALS...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
GENERATE MORE THAN SNIZZLE. STILL EXPECT P-TYPE TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW/SNIZZLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE LAURELS. BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...WILL KEEP POPS AOB 50 PCT AND LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
ACCUMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS/DUSTINGS ACROSS
THE COLDER HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND ONLY BACKS OFF A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS STAY ABOVE 32 FOR MOST PLACES AS WELL.
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS AT BAY. STILL...A FEW ROADS MAY GET
SLICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL NOSE NE INTO
THE COMMONWEALTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WILL YIELD TO SLOW
CLEARING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A GUSTY NW WIND IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE SE WILL BE ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S /WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST THROUGHOUT THE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THAT ARE
STILL IN THE TAIL END OF THE GROWING SEASON/. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TO THE TIMING OF LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-7 KTS/...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THIS POINT. A FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
AND CAN MENTION THAT ASPECT IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT BASE OF VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY
KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW
CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE
THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE
COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY
MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT NEAR A KELM TO KUNV AND KAOO LINE AT 1530Z WILL
PUSH TO A KAVP TO KMDT LINE BY 18Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MTNS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF A KJST TO KFIG AND KELZ LINE...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS DEEPENING COLD AIR SPREADS INTO THAT REGION.

MAINLY MVFR BKN-OVC STRATO CU WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS INVOF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT
AGL.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE CFRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20KT RANGE.

IFR WRN MTNS AND MVFR CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY MAINLY
VFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD ONLY DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...STILL
STAYING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WNW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
GR LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT





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