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000
FXUS61 KCTP 262135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT AT
21Z...AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD...COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WGUSTS
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA AS THEY MOVE THRU BTWN 21Z-00Z. LATEST HRRR
HAS LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING LANCASTER CO ARND 00Z.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO LGT SNOW
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHT QPF AND MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS TO JUST A COATING IN SPOTS.

POPS DROP BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TURNS
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO SHSN OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. AGAIN...LGT PRECIP
RTS AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MINOR ACCUMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT AT
21Z...AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD...COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WGUSTS
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA AS THEY MOVE THRU BTWN 21Z-00Z. LATEST HRRR
HAS LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING LANCASTER CO ARND 00Z.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO LGT SNOW
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHT QPF AND MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS TO JUST A COATING IN SPOTS.

POPS DROP BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TURNS
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO SHSN OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. AGAIN...LGT PRECIP
RTS AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MINOR ACCUMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT AT
21Z...AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD...COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WGUSTS
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA AS THEY MOVE THRU BTWN 21Z-00Z. LATEST HRRR
HAS LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING LANCASTER CO ARND 00Z.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO LGT SNOW
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHT QPF AND MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS TO JUST A COATING IN SPOTS.

POPS DROP BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TURNS
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO SHSN OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. AGAIN...LGT PRECIP
RTS AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MINOR ACCUMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262135
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWING A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT AT
21Z...AS IT ENTERS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD...COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WGUSTS
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA AS THEY MOVE THRU BTWN 21Z-00Z. LATEST HRRR
HAS LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING LANCASTER CO ARND 00Z.

ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO LGT SNOW
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHT QPF AND MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS TO JUST A COATING IN SPOTS.

POPS DROP BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING AND ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TURNS
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO SHSN OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. AGAIN...LGT PRECIP
RTS AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MINOR ACCUMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262004
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
.

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262004
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
.

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261806
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
.

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261806
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
.

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.

THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261758
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/....

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSBILE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261758
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/....

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSBILE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261758
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/....

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSBILE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261758
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.

TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.

POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/....

THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.

SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSBILE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261603
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1203 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE FOR HIGHER TEMEPATURES AS WARM SURGE IS STRONGER THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. MANY SOUTHERN PA LOCATIONS WILL TOP 70 AND
CENTRAL AREAS COULD HIT 60.

PREVIOUS:
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SHARP
PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35 NEAR THE NEW
YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261603
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1203 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE FOR HIGHER TEMEPATURES AS WARM SURGE IS STRONGER THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. MANY SOUTHERN PA LOCATIONS WILL TOP 70 AND
CENTRAL AREAS COULD HIT 60.

PREVIOUS:
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SHARP
PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35 NEAR THE NEW
YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261603
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1203 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE FOR HIGHER TEMEPATURES AS WARM SURGE IS STRONGER THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. MANY SOUTHERN PA LOCATIONS WILL TOP 70 AND
CENTRAL AREAS COULD HIT 60.

PREVIOUS:
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SHARP
PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35 NEAR THE NEW
YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261603
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1203 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE FOR HIGHER TEMEPATURES AS WARM SURGE IS STRONGER THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. MANY SOUTHERN PA LOCATIONS WILL TOP 70 AND
CENTRAL AREAS COULD HIT 60.

PREVIOUS:
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SHARP
PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35 NEAR THE NEW
YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN
SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35
NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
     UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN
SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35
NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
     UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261506
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1106 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN
SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35
NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

...UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261506
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1106 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN
SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35
NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.

MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.

SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

...UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....

PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
858 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS WERE SPREAD ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING A BIT TO AROUND 1SM AS A STEADIER...COLD RAIN SPREADS
NE ACROSS THAT REGION.

HIGH RES MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK
SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD
RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC
WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP JUST SW OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

LATEST...11Z HRRR DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR A LINE FROM
KELM...TO KUNV AND KIDI. THIS LINE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVES INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21-22Z
/WHERE MUCH BETTER ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...AND WEAK-MDT 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL RESIDE/.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
858 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS WERE SPREAD ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING A BIT TO AROUND 1SM AS A STEADIER...COLD RAIN SPREADS
NE ACROSS THAT REGION.

HIGH RES MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK
SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD
RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC
WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP JUST SW OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

LATEST...11Z HRRR DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR A LINE FROM
KELM...TO KUNV AND KIDI. THIS LINE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVES INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21-22Z
/WHERE MUCH BETTER ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...AND WEAK-MDT 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL RESIDE/.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
858 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS WERE SPREAD ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING A BIT TO AROUND 1SM AS A STEADIER...COLD RAIN SPREADS
NE ACROSS THAT REGION.

HIGH RES MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK
SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD
RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC
WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP JUST SW OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

LATEST...11Z HRRR DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR A LINE FROM
KELM...TO KUNV AND KIDI. THIS LINE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVES INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21-22Z
/WHERE MUCH BETTER ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...AND WEAK-MDT 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL RESIDE/.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
858 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS WERE SPREAD ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING A BIT TO AROUND 1SM AS A STEADIER...COLD RAIN SPREADS
NE ACROSS THAT REGION.

HIGH RES MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK
SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD
RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC
WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP JUST SW OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

LATEST...11Z HRRR DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR A LINE FROM
KELM...TO KUNV AND KIDI. THIS LINE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVES INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21-22Z
/WHERE MUCH BETTER ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...AND WEAK-MDT 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL RESIDE/.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

06Z INFO.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
528 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260757
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260757
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260757
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260757
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTING TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PA.
FOG WHICH EARLIER WAS LOCALLY DENSE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AT KBFD IS NOW DECREASING AS A RESULT...BUT WILL STILL SEE AREAS
OF FOG PAST DAWN. COOL LLVL MARITIME FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING FOG
OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERNIGHT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK SFC LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA BY
EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW
COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.

BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED
OFF ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND
LOW CIGS AT BFD.

HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.

EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.

EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260511
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260511
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260511
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260511
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER
OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR
FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A
GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR
FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A
GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR
FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A
GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR
FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A
GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS...
RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING
ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH
CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN
ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH.

COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING
VSBYS AND CIGS/.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260250
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 02Z SHOWS PTCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA.
STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR FLOW WEAKENING AND
VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT FCST OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHERE MOST SIG RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. LATEST RAP SFC RH
ALSO REMAINS NR 100 PCT IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. CONSALL BLENDED
WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260250
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 02Z SHOWS PTCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA.
STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR FLOW WEAKENING AND
VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT FCST OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHERE MOST SIG RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. LATEST RAP SFC RH
ALSO REMAINS NR 100 PCT IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. CONSALL BLENDED
WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260250
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 02Z SHOWS PTCLDY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA.
STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR FLOW WEAKENING AND
VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT FCST OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHERE MOST SIG RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. LATEST RAP SFC RH
ALSO REMAINS NR 100 PCT IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. CONSALL BLENDED
WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR
FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A
GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON NEAR TERM MDLS SHOWING SERLY BLYR
FLOW WEAKENING AND VEERING FROM SE TO SOUTH.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LINGERING
SPRINKLES LATE THIS EVENING. FOCUS NOW ON DEEPENING TROUGH OVR
THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. NR
TERM MDL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP
OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOG IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...AS IR LOOP NOW SUGGESTS A
GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSRPEAD THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE
GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100
PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL
SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
600 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AS OF 21Z...JUST A FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES
LEFT ACROSS NORTHERN PA...ASSOC WITH TRAILING LL JET AND PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS. LATEST 4KM NAM/HRRR SUGGEST EVEN THESE LINGERING
SPRINKLES WILL LKLY END BY MIDNIGHT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING UP
THE OHIO VALLEY. NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES AN INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS BY ARND 12Z UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

EARLY EVENING VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...SFC OBS INDICATE WARM FRONT STILL HUNG UP
WEST OF THE MTNS. HAVE GONE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT BASED ON SATL TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF BLYR FLOW VEERING
FROM SE TO SW OVERNIGHT. PTCLDY SKIES...LGT WIND AND WET GROUND
SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...ESP OVR THE
NW COUNTIES...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL TODAY. CONSALL BLENDED
WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FADE AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING.
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NW MTNS TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FADE AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING.
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NW MTNS TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FADE AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING.
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NW MTNS TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FADE AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING.
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NW MTNS TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FADE AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING.
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NW MTNS TO LOW 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FADE AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING.
 LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NW MTNS TO LOW 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES
ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A STRONG GRADIENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS/CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251513
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRES IN AN HOUR AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND. RADAR SHOWS
TWO BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST BAND OF RAIN MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH EASTERN CWA...NEXT AREA MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS.
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE
FOR A MUCH MORE MILDER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW CWA. THE SFC WARM
FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND
CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251513
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRES IN AN HOUR AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND. RADAR SHOWS
TWO BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST BAND OF RAIN MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH EASTERN CWA...NEXT AREA MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS.
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE
FOR A MUCH MORE MILDER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW CWA. THE SFC WARM
FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND
CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251513
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRES IN AN HOUR AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND. RADAR SHOWS
TWO BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST BAND OF RAIN MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH EASTERN CWA...NEXT AREA MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS.
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE
FOR A MUCH MORE MILDER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW CWA. THE SFC WARM
FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND
CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251513
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRES IN AN HOUR AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND. RADAR SHOWS
TWO BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST BAND OF RAIN MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH EASTERN CWA...NEXT AREA MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS.
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE 2ND BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE
FOR A MUCH MORE MILDER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW CWA. THE SFC WARM
FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND
CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG
SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE
BTWN 15-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...WILL EXPAND FZRA ADVY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH PCPN PROJECTED TO ARRIVE PRIOR TO 14Z
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SFC OBS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT
JST/AOO. ALSO ADDED MENTION AT MDT/LNS AND CANT RULE IT OUT AT
UNV. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES (14-15Z AT BFD/IPT) SO TAFS WILL SHOW JUST -RA. LLWS
WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY
LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN
14-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...WILL EXPAND FZRA ADVY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH PCPN PROJECTED TO ARRIVE PRIOR TO 14Z
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SFC OBS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT
JST/AOO. ALSO ADDED MENTION AT MDT/LNS AND CANT RULE IT OUT AT
UNV. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES (14-15Z AT BFD/IPT) SO TAFS WILL SHOW JUST -RA. LLWS
WILL IMPACT THE WRN TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY
LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN
14-17Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT
JST/AOO. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES SO TAF WILL SHOW PLAIN -RA. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN
TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 14-17Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT
JST/AOO. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES SO TAF WILL SHOW PLAIN -RA. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN
TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 14-17Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT
JST/AOO. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES SO TAF WILL SHOW PLAIN -RA. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN
TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 14-17Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT -RA ASSOCD WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFC TEMPS AOB 32F WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT
JST/AOO. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE BY THE TIME
PCPN ARRIVES SO TAF WILL SHOW PLAIN -RA. LLWS WILL IMPACT THE WRN
TAFS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC WITH STRONG SLY LLJ. -RA WILL SHIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 14-17Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN
AIRSPACE...AHEAD OF NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PCPN STRETCHING
FROM NE OH ACROSS SW PA INTO NRN VA. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ACCOMPANYING -RA NEWD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDED TEMPO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT JST AND MAY
CONSIDER ONE FOR AOO. LATER ONSET OF PCPN MAY KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN
AT BFD AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
AMD IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN
AIRSPACE...AHEAD OF NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PCPN STRETCHING
FROM NE OH ACROSS SW PA INTO NRN VA. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ACCOMPANYING -RA NEWD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDED TEMPO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT JST AND MAY
CONSIDER ONE FOR AOO. LATER ONSET OF PCPN MAY KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN
AT BFD AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
AMD IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM UPDATE...
WILL EXPAND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FZRA ADVISORY TO COVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (HUNTINGDON...FULTON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES) AS RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE QUICKER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST.
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN
AIRSPACE...AHEAD OF NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PCPN STRETCHING
FROM NE OH ACROSS SW PA INTO NRN VA. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ACCOMPANYING -RA NEWD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDED TEMPO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT JST AND MAY
CONSIDER ONE FOR AOO. LATER ONSET OF PCPN MAY KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN
AT BFD AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
AMD IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024>026-
033>036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
538 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN
AIRSPACE...AHEAD OF NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PCPN STRETCHING
FROM NE OH ACROSS SW PA INTO NRN VA. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ACCOMPANYING -RA NEWD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDED TEMPO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT JST AND MAY
CONSIDER ONE FOR AOO. LATER ONSET OF PCPN MAY KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN
AT BFD AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
AMD IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
538 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN
AIRSPACE...AHEAD OF NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PCPN STRETCHING
FROM NE OH ACROSS SW PA INTO NRN VA. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ACCOMPANYING -RA NEWD ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDED TEMPO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT JST AND MAY
CONSIDER ONE FOR AOO. LATER ONSET OF PCPN MAY KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN
AT BFD AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
AMD IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST IN -RADZ AND FOG/MIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS.

THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR
AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AERAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AERAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AERAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AERAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250656
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250656
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250656
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250656
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250450
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1250 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250450
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1250 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250342
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250342
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS
OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF.
CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS
OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF.
CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250003
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS
OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF.
CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250003
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS
OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF.
CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250003
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS
OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF.
CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250003
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS
OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF.
CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.

WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP
TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE
THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR
THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM.

AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242034
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS EXITING THE S TIER
COUNTIES AT 20Z...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP EARLY WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
DESPITE RISING TEMPS ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN COLLIDES
WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT NO HEADLINES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242034
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS EXITING THE S TIER
COUNTIES AT 20Z...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP EARLY WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
DESPITE RISING TEMPS ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN COLLIDES
WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT NO HEADLINES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242034
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS EXITING THE S TIER
COUNTIES AT 20Z...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP EARLY WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
DESPITE RISING TEMPS ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN COLLIDES
WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT NO HEADLINES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241818
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241818
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241818
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241818
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS FINALLY SHOWING PROGRESS IN
TREKKING SOUTH...WITH BLUE SKY JUST BECOMING VISIBLE OUT THE
WINDOW TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SKY REMAINS OVERCAST.
BUT NOW WITH THINGS ON THE MOVE THERE IS NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES IN AREAS
WHERE THIS HAS NOT ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCUR.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SKIES WILL START OFF FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL MAKE A
RETURN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AGAIN. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
FAST PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE PREDICTED
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT THERE COULD BE
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN COLLIDES WITH THE SUB FREEZING AIR. AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THE BEST
CHANCE AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW I HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE AFTERNOON END UP MAINLY DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241423
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALONG I-80...WITH
THE OVERCAST OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES
NORTH. THE BACK EDGE HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE SUN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE DAY SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BRIGHTER
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THIS OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVEN OVER THE
SWRN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO FAVOR A PERIOD
OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241423
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALONG I-80...WITH
THE OVERCAST OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES
NORTH. THE BACK EDGE HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE SUN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE DAY SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BRIGHTER
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THIS OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVEN OVER THE
SWRN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO FAVOR A PERIOD
OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241423
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALONG I-80...WITH
THE OVERCAST OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES
NORTH. THE BACK EDGE HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE SUN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE DAY SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BRIGHTER
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THIS OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVEN OVER THE
SWRN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO FAVOR A PERIOD
OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241423
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS RUNS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALONG I-80...WITH
THE OVERCAST OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES
NORTH. THE BACK EDGE HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE SUN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE DAY SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE A BRIGHTER
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER
BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THIS OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVEN OVER THE
SWRN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO FAVOR A PERIOD
OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
751 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR
TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN
COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR -FZRA. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO
FAVOR A PERIOD OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS
BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LLWS. COLD
FROPA THU AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270
THU NGT BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
751 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR
TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN
COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR -FZRA. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO
FAVOR A PERIOD OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS
BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LLWS. COLD
FROPA THU AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270
THU NGT BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
751 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR
TO MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. IF PCPN
COMES IN EARLY THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR -FZRA. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW /40-50KTS OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE/ SHOULD ALSO
FAVOR A PERIOD OF LLWS FROM 12Z WED TO 00Z THU. OVERALL LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS
BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LLWS. COLD
FROPA THU AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270
THU NGT BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PREVIOUS RETURNS HAVING
DISSIPATED...BUT HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT UPSLOPE ACTIVITY
STILL LIKELY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP CHC OF FLURRIES IN FOR
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ADJACENT TO MEAGER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOW EXITING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT REACHING
THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...BUT CHC OF SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST 12Z.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOW EXITING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT REACHING
THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...BUT CHC OF SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST 12Z.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOW EXITING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT REACHING
THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...BUT CHC OF SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST 12Z.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOW EXITING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT REACHING
THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...BUT CHC OF SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST 12Z.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPAGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVC CIGS 025-050 WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTN
OVER SRN AREAS BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR. INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN LOW VFR TO
MARGINAL CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE
ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50KTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LLWS. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT WITH IFR CIGS BCMG LKLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. COLD FROPA THU
AFTN WITH TSTMS PSBL SE 1/3. WND SHIFT FROM 180 TO 270 THU NGT
BEHIND FRONT.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOW EXITING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT REACHING
THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...BUT CHC OF SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST 12Z.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPOGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS -SN ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT JST/AOO WITH
FLGT CATS RETURNING TO MVFR. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND AT MDT/LNS. EVEN
IF IT DOES VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM. OVC LOW CIGS 025-050 WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10KFT AGL OVER NRN SXNS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE THIS AFTN OVER SRN AREAS BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND IS NOW EXITING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT REACHING
THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...BUT CHC OF SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST 12Z.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FINGERLAKES REGION EXTENDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BRINGING A MILDER
RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AND
PROPOGATE SHOWERS TO THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FORCING AND CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES SOMEWHAT BY WED AFTERNOON AS BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ARRIVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE DECREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON...A BROADBRUSH AS NO
ONE AREA IS FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AT THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS -SN ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT JST/AOO WITH
FLGT CATS RETURNING TO MVFR. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND AT MDT/LNS. EVEN
IF IT DOES VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM. OVC LOW CIGS 025-050 WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10KFT AGL OVER NRN SXNS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE THIS AFTN OVER SRN AREAS BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240619
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS -SN ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT JST/AOO WITH
FLGT CATS RETURNING TO MVFR. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND AT MDT/LNS. EVEN
IF IT DOES VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM. OVC LOW CIGS 025-050 WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10KFT AGL OVER NRN SXNS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE THIS AFTN OVER SRN AREAS BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240619
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS -SN ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT JST/AOO WITH
FLGT CATS RETURNING TO MVFR. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND AT MDT/LNS. EVEN
IF IT DOES VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM. OVC LOW CIGS 025-050 WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10KFT AGL OVER NRN SXNS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE THIS AFTN OVER SRN AREAS BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240619
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS -SN ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT JST/AOO WITH
FLGT CATS RETURNING TO MVFR. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND AT MDT/LNS. EVEN
IF IT DOES VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM. OVC LOW CIGS 025-050 WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10KFT AGL OVER NRN SXNS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE THIS AFTN OVER SRN AREAS BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240619
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS -SN ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AT JST/AOO WITH
FLGT CATS RETURNING TO MVFR. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND AT MDT/LNS. EVEN
IF IT DOES VSBYS SHOULD STAY AOA 5SM. OVC LOW CIGS 025-050 WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10KFT AGL OVER NRN SXNS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE THIS AFTN OVER SRN AREAS BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST
AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW MOVING IN AND OUT FAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS WAS TO END SNOW FASTER.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW MOVING IN AND OUT FAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS WAS TO END SNOW FASTER.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW MOVING IN AND OUT FAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS WAS TO END SNOW FASTER.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INHIBITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WILL BE SEEN FROM KFIG-KUNV TO KSEG AND POINTS NORTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AND WILL WANE AFTER 07Z AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW MOVING IN AND OUT FAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS WAS TO END SNOW FASTER.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A DWINDLING AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN PA LATE THIS EVENING...AS CLIPPER RUNS INTO VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE
MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCUMS...RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A
COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD PEAK BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS MID LVL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER
THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW MOVING IN AND OUT FAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS WAS TO END SNOW FASTER.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A DWINDLING AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN PA LATE THIS EVENING...AS CLIPPER RUNS INTO VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE
MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCUMS...RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A
COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD PEAK BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS MID LVL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER
THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW MOVING IN AND OUT FAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS WAS TO END SNOW FASTER.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240252
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1052 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A DWINDLING AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN PA LATE THIS EVENING...AS CLIPPER RUNS INTO VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE
MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCUMS...RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A
COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD PEAK BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS MID LVL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER
THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS.

JUST HIGH CLDS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE...BUT THICKER CLDS JUST
TO THE WEST. VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING SE TOWARD CENTRAL
PA.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240252
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1052 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A DWINDLING AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN PA LATE THIS EVENING...AS CLIPPER RUNS INTO VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE
MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCUMS...RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A
COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD PEAK BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS MID LVL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER
THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS.

JUST HIGH CLDS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE...BUT THICKER CLDS JUST
TO THE WEST. VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING SE TOWARD CENTRAL
PA.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 240252
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1052 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A DWINDLING AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN PA LATE THIS EVENING...AS CLIPPER RUNS INTO VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE
MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCUMS...RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A
COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD PEAK BTWN 03Z-07Z...AS MID LVL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WANING LG SCALE FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER
THAT.

LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SFC
HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS OVR THE E GRT LKS BUILDS IN.

CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING
PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.

THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST
FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS.

JUST HIGH CLDS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE...BUT THICKER CLDS JUST
TO THE WEST. VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING SE TOWARD CENTRAL
PA.

A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO
SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING.

EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
ACROSS THE WEST AND NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




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