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000
FXUS61 KCTP 302310
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED  CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE
SUSQ VALLEY. STORMS ARE BRINGING DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40MPH RANGE.

HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STAYING FAIRLY ACTIVE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...NOT QUIETING DOWN APPRECIABLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TO MID
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL DIMINISHING JUST TO THE WEST
OF KJST AND KAOO SO WENT WITH BETTER CONDITIONS THAN SITES TO THE
NORTH...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND MOVING TOWARD BOTH KIPT
AND KUNV. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
SITES...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY REDUCTION IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302310
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED  CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE
SUSQ VALLEY. STORMS ARE BRINGING DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40MPH RANGE.

HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STAYING FAIRLY ACTIVE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...NOT QUIETING DOWN APPRECIABLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TO MID
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL DIMINISHING JUST TO THE WEST
OF KJST AND KAOO SO WENT WITH BETTER CONDITIONS THAN SITES TO THE
NORTH...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND MOVING TOWARD BOTH KIPT
AND KUNV. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
SITES...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY REDUCTION IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 302142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSPORT A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MU CAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAS REACHED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AS OF 18Z.

THIS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS COMBINING WITH WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A A FEW BKN LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED TSRA TO THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA SO FAR.

ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED/FLATTER CU AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00-04Z THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER 1-3 DEG F FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL 6-9 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE FIZZLING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW /LOW TO MID/ CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT /WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL DIMINISHING JUST TO THE WEST
OF KJST AND KAOO SO WENT WITH BETTER CONDITIONS THAN SITES TO THE
NORTH...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND MOVING TOWARD BOTH KIPT
AND KUNV. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
SITES...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY REDUCTION IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSPORT A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MU CAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAS REACHED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AS OF 18Z.

THIS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS COMBINING WITH WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A A FEW BKN LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED TSRA TO THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA SO FAR.

ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED/FLATTER CU AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00-04Z THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER 1-3 DEG F FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL 6-9 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE FIZZLING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW /LOW TO MID/ CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT /WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL DIMINISHING JUST TO THE WEST
OF KJST AND KAOO SO WENT WITH BETTER CONDITIONS THAN SITES TO THE
NORTH...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND MOVING TOWARD BOTH KIPT
AND KUNV. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHEAST
SITES...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY REDUCTION IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301953
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSPORT A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MU CAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAS REACHED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AS OF 18Z.

THIS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS COMBINING WITH WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A A FEW BKN LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED TSRA TO THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA SO FAR.

ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED/FLATTER CU AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00-04Z THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER 1-3 DEG F FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL 6-9 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE FIZZLING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW /LOW TO MID/ CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT /WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING /BUT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS/ WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
I-99/ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL SEE A DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUDS
WITH CONVECTIVE BASES AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WITH THE MID LEVEL BASES
AROUND 7 KFT AGL.

THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KIPT.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301953
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSPORT A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MU CAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAS REACHED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AS OF 18Z.

THIS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS COMBINING WITH WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A A FEW BKN LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED TSRA TO THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA SO FAR.

ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED/FLATTER CU AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00-04Z THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER 1-3 DEG F FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL 6-9 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE FIZZLING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW /LOW TO MID/ CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT /WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF
HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN
SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND
PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING /BUT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS/ WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
I-99/ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL SEE A DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUDS
WITH CONVECTIVE BASES AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WITH THE MID LEVEL BASES
AROUND 7 KFT AGL.

THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KIPT.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSPORT A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MU CAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAS REACHED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AS OF 18Z.

THIS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS COMBINING WITH WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A A FEW BKN LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED TSRA TO THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA SO FAR.

ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED/FLATTER CU AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00-04Z THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER 1-3 DEG F FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL 6-9 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE FIZZLING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW /LOW TO MID/ CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT /WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING /BUT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS/ WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
I-99/ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL SEE A DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUDS
WITH CONVECTIVE BASES AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WITH THE MID LEVEL BASES
AROUND 7 KFT AGL.

THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KIPT.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSPORT A PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MU CAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAS REACHED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AS OF 18Z.

THIS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ IS COMBINING WITH WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A A FEW BKN LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED TSRA TO THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA SO FAR.

ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED/FLATTER CU AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00-04Z THURSDAY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF
SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER 1-3 DEG F FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL 6-9 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE FIZZLING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW /LOW TO MID/ CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT /WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT SOME READINGS
IN THE 40S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NR MTNS REGION AND
PERHAPS A FEW OF THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOMERSET COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT AT NRN PENN THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REFUELING TEMPORARILY FOR A DAY OR SO ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY
DRY - WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SFC HI
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE COOL AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST/NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TEMPS THURSDAY MAY TRY TO SNEAK BACK TO NORMAL IN THE
SE...BUT THE N/W ZONES WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISE OF A FEW
DAM...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SFC. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW NIGHTS WITH SKIES TRYING
TO CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING /BUT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS/ WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
I-99/ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLAND
AIRFIELDS WILL SEE A DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUDS
WITH CONVECTIVE BASES AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WITH THE MID LEVEL BASES
AROUND 7 KFT AGL.

THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KIPT.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS
/MAINLY ACROSS NRN PENN/.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRFIELDS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

AFTERWARD...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND LIFT SLOWLY NE TWD THE MID ATL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND /FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE/.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN AND WRN PENN
/AND ABOUT TO SPILL OVER INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION/ AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN
THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK WILL COMBINE WITH BLYR HEATING AND WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A BKN LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSRA
TO THE NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY MAY STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS BEFORE A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE AREA AROUND
DUSK...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT OF THE
CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING /BUT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS/ WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
I-99/ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLAND AIRFIELDS WILL SEE A DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUDS WITH CONVECTIVE BASES AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WITH
THE MID LEVEL BASES AROUND 7 KFT AGL. SKC OVER MUCH OF THE SE
THIRD OF PENN WILL BECOME DOTTED WITH SCATTERED CU THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NW
OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KIPT.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN AND WRN PENN
/AND ABOUT TO SPILL OVER INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION/ AS A RESULT OF WEAK WESTERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN
THE 300-310K THETA LAYER.

BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK WILL COMBINE WITH BLYR HEATING AND WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
BRING A BKN LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSRA
TO THE NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY MAY STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS BEFORE A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE AREA AROUND
DUSK...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POOL OF SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE /6-6.5C PER KM/ APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND AROUND 80F THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THESE READINGS ARE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS WHERE THE EARLIER DVLPMT OF THE
CLOUD COVER HAS FLATTENED THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING /BUT MAINLY VFR CLOUDS/ WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
I-99/ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLAND AIRFIELDS WILL SEE A DUAL LAYER OF STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUDS WITH CONVECTIVE BASES AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WITH
THE MID LEVEL BASES AROUND 7 KFT AGL. SKC OVER MUCH OF THE SE
THIRD OF PENN WILL BECOME DOTTED WITH SCATTERED CU THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NW
OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KIPT.

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING BKN ALTO CU CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301254
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
854 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM UPDATE...

A BOUT OF TRUE /MID SUMMER/ LAKE EFFECT RAIN NEAR THE I-90
CORRIDOR IN NWRN PENN WILL BE BREAKING UP AND SHIFTING A BIT
INLAND INTO WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING AS TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB TO NEAR 60F AND THE LAKE/LAND TEMP DIFF DROPS BELOW
10C.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS /IN THE FORM OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND
ALTOCU/ WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED AROUND 16-17Z...AND CAPES RAMP
UP TO AROUND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG...A NEW BKN LINE OR TWO OF
SHOWERS WILL FORM NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF RT 219...PER GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS
THE NCENT MTNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS A KIPT...KSEG AND KAOO
LINE BY 20Z. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY MAY STAY ENTIRELY DRY
TODAY...BEING WITHIN A DISTINCT SFC RIDGE.

...MOST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS AT IPT.

ANYWAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW WILL
WORK EASTWARD TODAY.

SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

FOR EARLY THU AM...ADDED SOME LOWER CIGS ETC AT IPT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND THUNDER NOW STARTING TO MOVE TO THE SHORELINE.
WILL HURRY UP THE ON-SET/TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS/PLACEMENT.

PREV...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

ALSO SOME LOWER CIGS AT IPT.

ANYWAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW WILL
WORK EASTWARD TODAY.

SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

FOR EARLY THU AM...ADDED SOME LOWER CIGS ETC AT IPT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 301012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND THUNDER NOW STARTING TO MOVE TO THE SHORELINE.
WILL HURRY UP THE ON-SET/TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS/PLACEMENT.

PREV...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

09Z TAFS SENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 09Z TAFS.

DETAILS BELOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND THUNDER NOW STARTING TO MOVE TO THE SHORELINE.
WILL HURRY UP THE ON-SET/TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS/PLACEMENT.

PREV...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

09Z TAFS SENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 09Z TAFS.

DETAILS BELOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300941
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

09Z TAFS SENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 09Z TAFS.

DETAILS BELOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300941
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME AREAS CLEAR NOW. STILL SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN THING NOW IS AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW.

09Z TAFS SENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 09Z TAFS.

DETAILS BELOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...GIVEN
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG AND LOW CIGS AT SPOTS LIKE BFD AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN UP
AND LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...AN OFF SHORE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
DIRECT MORE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID-LAKE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE JUST A BIT TOWARD THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. THE SHORT WAVE HELPING THOSE STORMS SEEMS
TO BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THE ANVILS
WILL BRUSH WARREN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-LATE
MORNING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PESKY UPPER
LEVEL LOW THIS MORNING AND SLIDE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT RESIDES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES LOOK MEAGER OFF
RUC/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE
CAPES. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW TODAY...HANGING
AROUND 7 OR 8KFT. SO WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY NOT GROW VERY
TALL...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ICE IN THEM. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THE NW. MOST RECENT SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES NOT MENTION ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GROW MORE-CLOUDY THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING IN THE NW. EXPANSIVE CU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET BACK TO THE NOT-SO-LOFTY HEIGHTS OF TUESDAY AND ADD A FEW
DEGREES ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS. TRY TO
BANK THE SAVINGS YOU WILL HAVE ON THE A/C THIS JULY WHICH SHOULD
END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE 7 DAYS 90F OR BETTER IN
HARRISBURG THIS MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE
DYING OUT. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NW. CHC POPS FOR SCT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FINE THERE. MINS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMALS
TONIGHT...BUT 40S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW THROWS ONE MORE UPPERCUT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE FORE-NOON. THE AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
MAINLY DRY...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE
WEST/NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE SE...BUT THE N/W WILL PROBABLY STILL BE 8-10 DEGS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NOW...THE 12-18 HOURS AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SEEM
LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BIG
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO HEAVE THE UPPER LOW A BIT TO THE NORTH.
HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 12DAM FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREV FEW WITH
SKIES TRYING TO CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH 40-50MM PWAT AIR RIDING NWD UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG AND LOW CIGS AT SPOTS LIKE BFD AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300608
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERCOLATING OVER THE RELATIVELY STEAMY WATERS
OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR AND INCHING TOWARD THE FAR NW. ALL IS
COVERED BY THE GOING FCST. THE 45F AT KBFD IS ALREADY COLDER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ARE VARIABLE THERE AND MORE ARE MOVING
BACK TOWARD THEM FROM THE LAKE-INDUCED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG AND LOW CIGS AT SPOTS LIKE BFD AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300608
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERCOLATING OVER THE RELATIVELY STEAMY WATERS
OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR AND INCHING TOWARD THE FAR NW. ALL IS
COVERED BY THE GOING FCST. THE 45F AT KBFD IS ALREADY COLDER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ARE VARIABLE THERE AND MORE ARE MOVING
BACK TOWARD THEM FROM THE LAKE-INDUCED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE
MID MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SC STILL ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG AND LOW CIGS AT SPOTS LIKE BFD AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.

PERHAPS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME MODEL SPREAD.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR ANY ONE DAY BEING DRY PRIOR TO NEXT MONDAY...IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300503
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERCOLATING OVER THE RELATIVELY STEAMY WATERS
OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR AND INCHING TOWARD THE FAR NW. ALL IS
COVERED BY THE GOING FCST. THE 45F AT KBFD IS ALREADY COLDER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ARE VARIABLE THERE AND MORE ARE MOVING
BACK TOWARD THEM FROM THE LAKE-INDUCED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR A RETURN OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
LAKES.

THS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT AS VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300503
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERCOLATING OVER THE RELATIVELY STEAMY WATERS
OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR AND INCHING TOWARD THE FAR NW. ALL IS
COVERED BY THE GOING FCST. THE 45F AT KBFD IS ALREADY COLDER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ARE VARIABLE THERE AND MORE ARE MOVING
BACK TOWARD THEM FROM THE LAKE-INDUCED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR A RETURN OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
LAKES.

THS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT AS VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTY...OTHERWISE WE HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD-COVER AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3
DEG...DAILY CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR A RETURN OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
LAKES.

THS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT AS VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 300337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTY...OTHERWISE WE HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD-COVER AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3
DEG...DAILY CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR A RETURN OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
LAKES.

THS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT AS VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300229
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTY...OTHERWISE WE HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD-COVER AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3
DEG...DAILY CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AND BECOME
SCT/SKC AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE /SUMMER/ SUN.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH
ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT ISSUANCE AS VCSH
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300229
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTY...OTHERWISE WE HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD-COVER AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3
DEG...DAILY CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AND BECOME
SCT/SKC AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE /SUMMER/ SUN.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH
ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT ISSUANCE AS VCSH
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
I GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO THE EVENING.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3 DEG...DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO MINS FROM THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AND BECOME
SCT/SKC AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE /SUMMER/ SUN.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH
ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT ISSUANCE AS VCSH
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
I GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO THE EVENING.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3 DEG...DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO MINS FROM THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AND BECOME
SCT/SKC AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE /SUMMER/ SUN.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WITH
ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...KEPT RECENT ISSUANCE AS VCSH
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292324
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
724 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

I GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO THE EVENING.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3 DEG...DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO MINS FROM THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNSET...VERY SIMILAR TO
AN OCTOBER AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN GOOD
VFR. AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE "SUMMER" SUN...CLOUDS WILL
BECOME SCT TO SKC AFTER SUNSET.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292324
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
724 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

I GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO THE EVENING.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING...WITHIN ~3 DEG...DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO MINS FROM THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 MB JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNSET...VERY SIMILAR TO
AN OCTOBER AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN GOOD
VFR. AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE "SUMMER" SUN...CLOUDS WILL
BECOME SCT TO SKC AFTER SUNSET.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT /MORE REMINISCENT OF THE TRANSITION
SEASONS/..COMPLETE WITH SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES IN BOTH H85/H7
TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS..CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCR CVRG OF
INSTABILITY CU/SC PER LATEST VISIBLE STLT LOOP. 16Z REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC IS VOID OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACRS THE N/W ZONES NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-15C AT 500MB/ AND THUS STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WILL AVG 10-15F BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS...A FAR CRY
FROM THE USUAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS LKLY APPROACHING /WITHIN ~3 DEGREES/ DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO 7/29 MINS. DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT BUT SUPPOSE
ANY WK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE CYC FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR N/W ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 HPA JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNSET...VERY SIMILAR TO
AN OCTOBER AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN GOOD
VFR. AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE "SUMMER" SUN...CLOUDS WILL
BECOME SCT TO SKC AFTER SUNSET.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT /MORE REMINISCENT OF THE TRANSITION
SEASONS/..COMPLETE WITH SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES IN BOTH H85/H7
TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS..CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCR CVRG OF
INSTABILITY CU/SC PER LATEST VISIBLE STLT LOOP. 16Z REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC IS VOID OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACRS THE N/W ZONES NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-15C AT 500MB/ AND THUS STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WILL AVG 10-15F BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS...A FAR CRY
FROM THE USUAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS LKLY APPROACHING /WITHIN ~3 DEGREES/ DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO 7/29 MINS. DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT BUT SUPPOSE
ANY WK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE CYC FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR N/W ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 HPA JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC STRATUS LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNSET...VERY SIMILAR TO
AN OCTOBER AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN GOOD
VFR. AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE "SUMMER" SUN...CLOUDS WILL
BECOME SCT TO SKC AFTER SUNSET.

APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN GRT LKS ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT /MORE REMINISCENT OF THE TRANSITION
SEASONS/..COMPLETE WITH SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES IN BOTH H85/H7
TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS..CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCR CVRG OF
INSTABILITY CU/SC PER LATEST VISIBLE STLT LOOP. 16Z REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC IS VOID OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACRS THE N/W ZONES NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-15C AT 500MB/ AND THUS STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WILL AVG 10-15F BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS...A FAR CRY
FROM THE USUAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS LKLY APPROACHING /WITHIN ~3 DEGREES/ DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO 7/29 MINS. DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT BUT SUPPOSE
ANY WK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE CYC FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR N/W ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 HPA JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVE WITH SOME DEC IN CLOUDS
AFTER DARK. AN ISOLD -SHRA IS PSBL MAINLY OVR THE NW 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE ALTHOUGH CVRG IS SPARSE ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE CIGS MAY TRY TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN VFR. APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ERN GRT LKS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT /MORE REMINISCENT OF THE TRANSITION
SEASONS/..COMPLETE WITH SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES IN BOTH H85/H7
TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS..CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCR CVRG OF
INSTABILITY CU/SC PER LATEST VISIBLE STLT LOOP. 16Z REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC IS VOID OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACRS THE N/W ZONES NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-15C AT 500MB/ AND THUS STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WILL AVG 10-15F BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS...A FAR CRY
FROM THE USUAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS LKLY APPROACHING /WITHIN ~3 DEGREES/ DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO 7/29 MINS. DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT BUT SUPPOSE
ANY WK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE CYC FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR N/W ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL RELOAD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK ENERGY DIGGING INTO IT/S SW FLANK ACROSS THE MID
MISS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND /AS THE CANADIAN PORTION SHEARS OUT TO THE NE/.

THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-95 KT 300 HPA JET/ WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING /AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING/ BAROCLINIC ZONE...
AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MVG NE ALONG IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OR ERN PENN DURING THIS 2-3 DAY PERIOD.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS FOR A MAINLY
DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL RIDE EAST IN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW AND
BRING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR BRIEF...
LOW-TOPPED TSRA BOTH DAYS.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER /SHOWERS AND TSTMS/ WILL OCCUR LATER
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR BENEATH THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATING JET AND ITS THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING SHOWERS AND TSRA...
ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE/.

MODEL DETAILS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MESO/LARGER SCALE FORCING...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION AND NE MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH /AND AXIS OF HIGH...40-50MM PWAT AIR/ RIDING NWD UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES...POPS WERE
CAPPED OFF IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY...BUT AS THE FINER DETAILS
UNFOLD WITH HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POPS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TREND HIGHER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT /WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/ IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVE WITH SOME DEC IN CLOUDS
AFTER DARK. AN ISOLD -SHRA IS PSBL MAINLY OVR THE NW 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE ALTHOUGH CVRG IS SPARSE ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE CIGS MAY TRY TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN VFR. APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ERN GRT LKS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291638
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT /MORE REMINISCENT OF THE TRANSITION
SEASONS/..COMPLETE WITH SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES IN BOTH H85/H7
TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS..CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCR CVRG OF
INSTABILITY CU/SC PER LATEST VISIBLE STLT LOOP. 16Z REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC IS VOID OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACRS THE N/W ZONES NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-15C AT 500MB/ AND THUS STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WILL AVG 10-15F BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS...A FAR CRY
FROM THE USUAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS LKLY APPROACHING /WITHIN ~3 DEGREES/ DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO 7/29 MINS. DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT BUT SUPPOSE
ANY WK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE CYC FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR N/W ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVE WITH SOME DEC IN CLOUDS
AFTER DARK. AN ISOLD -SHRA IS PSBL MAINLY OVR THE NW 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE ALTHOUGH CVRG IS SPARSE ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE CIGS MAY TRY TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN VFR. APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ERN GRT LKS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291638
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE REGION INTO
EARLY AUGUST BENEATH A BROAD AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT /MORE REMINISCENT OF THE TRANSITION
SEASONS/..COMPLETE WITH SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES IN BOTH H85/H7
TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS..CONTINUES TO PROMOTE INCR CVRG OF
INSTABILITY CU/SC PER LATEST VISIBLE STLT LOOP. 16Z REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC IS VOID OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACRS THE N/W ZONES NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-15C AT 500MB/ AND THUS STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WILL AVG 10-15F BELOW LATE JULY NORMALS...A FAR CRY
FROM THE USUAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN SXNS. DESPITE P-M CLOUDY SKIES...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS LKLY APPROACHING /WITHIN ~3 DEGREES/ DAILY
CLIMATE RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S...SIMILAR TO 7/29 MINS. DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT BUT SUPPOSE
ANY WK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE CYC FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR N/W ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING S OF NEARLY STNRY UPPER LOW OVER JAMES
BAY INTO THE ERN GRT LKS REGION WILL TEAM WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTN BENEATH POOL OF -15 TO -16C AIR AT 500MB.
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN NDFD FCST AND ZONE TEXT.
SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD HAVE HAIL APPROACHING SVR
LIMITS /1 INCH DIAMETER/ BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO WED
NGT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SPC D2 STILL HIGHLIGHTS THE NW MTNS
WITH A SEE TEXT. D2 MAX/MINS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN
BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVE WITH SOME DEC IN CLOUDS
AFTER DARK. AN ISOLD -SHRA IS PSBL MAINLY OVR THE NW 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE ALTHOUGH CVRG IS SPARSE ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...SUPPOSE CIGS MAY TRY TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN VFR. APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ERN GRT LKS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE SCT SHRA
AND LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO THE
AFTN..WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
STLT IMAGERY. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTN
WITH CU FIELD LKLY TO DEVELOP UNDER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT.
A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH SEVERAL SITES NEAR /WITHIN 3
DEGREES OR SO/ OF DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR LATE JULY...ESPECIALLY
ACRS WRN PA. OUTSIDE AN ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWER OVER THE N/W
MTNS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY/P-M CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL/COMFORTABLE
FALL-LIKE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...OR ABOUT
10-15 BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN IS OVER
THE WRN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF WK S/W TROUGH EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYC
FLOW ALOFT...AND NEAR EDGE OF BETTER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES 6C/KM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY
9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADDING TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLDS.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS TO SLOW DOWN CIGS
GOING TO VFR.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT EXPECT
LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON WED...NOT...THU...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THU AFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
STLT IMAGERY. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTN
WITH CU FIELD LKLY TO DEVELOP UNDER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT.
A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH SEVERAL SITES NEAR /WITHIN 3
DEGREES OR SO/ OF DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR LATE JULY...ESPECIALLY
ACRS WRN PA. OUTSIDE AN ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWER OVER THE N/W
MTNS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY/P-M CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL/COMFORTABLE
FALL-LIKE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...OR ABOUT
10-15 BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN IS OVER
THE WRN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF WK S/W TROUGH EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYC
FLOW ALOFT...AND NEAR EDGE OF BETTER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES 6C/KM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY
9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADDING TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLDS.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS TO SLOW DOWN CIGS
GOING TO VFR.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT EXPECT
LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON WED...NOT...THU...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THU AFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291034
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY
9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADDING TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLDS.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS TO SLOW DOWN CIGS
GOING TO VFR.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT EXPECT
LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON WED...NOT...THU...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THU AFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291034
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY
9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADDING TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLDS.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS TO SLOW DOWN CIGS
GOING TO VFR.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT EXPECT
LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON WED...NOT...THU...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THU AFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY
9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADDING TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLDS.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT EXPECT
LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

09Z TAFS SENT.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECCT MOST OF WED TO BR DRY. THU COULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY
9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADDING TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLDS.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT EXPECT
LESS ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY.

09Z TAFS SENT.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECCT MOST OF WED TO BR DRY. THU COULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290834
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY 9
PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS.

EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290834
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY
WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD
NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY
SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE
HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND
RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.

AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE
WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT
REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE
BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL
INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW
ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY 9
PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING
SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP
TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS.

EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290648
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTS. BREAKS IN THE DECK ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE
11-3.9MICRON IMAGES. EXPECT THE BEST CLEARING OVER THE SE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO IN THE SW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING UPSTREAM IN WRN PA.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. BEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES
IS TIMED IN FOR WED DURING THE DAY AND SPC SEE TEXT IN NEW DAY TWO
IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED AND VERY SLIM CHC OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM A STRONGER
CELL OR TWO. THE 8H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN NOW
AND WED AFTN/EVE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE
THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN WHAT SHOULD OCCUR ON
TUESDAY/TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD GET
SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS.

EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290648
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTS. BREAKS IN THE DECK ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE
11-3.9MICRON IMAGES. EXPECT THE BEST CLEARING OVER THE SE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO IN THE SW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING UPSTREAM IN WRN PA.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. BEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES
IS TIMED IN FOR WED DURING THE DAY AND SPC SEE TEXT IN NEW DAY TWO
IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED AND VERY SLIM CHC OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM A STRONGER
CELL OR TWO. THE 8H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN NOW
AND WED AFTN/EVE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE
THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN WHAT SHOULD OCCUR ON
TUESDAY/TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD GET
SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS.

EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290527
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTS. BREAKS IN THE DECK ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE
11-3.9MICRON IMAGES. EXPECT THE BEST CLEARING OVER THE SE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO IN THE SW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING UPSTREAM IN WRN PA.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. BEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES
IS TIMED IN FOR WED DURING THE DAY AND SPC SEE TEXT IN NEW DAY TWO
IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED AND VERY SLIM CHC OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM A STRONGER
CELL OR TWO. THE 8H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN NOW
AND WED AFTN/EVE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE
THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN WHAT SHOULD OCCUR ON
TUESDAY/TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD GET
SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290527
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTS. BREAKS IN THE DECK ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE
11-3.9MICRON IMAGES. EXPECT THE BEST CLEARING OVER THE SE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO IN THE SW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING UPSTREAM IN WRN PA.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. BEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES
IS TIMED IN FOR WED DURING THE DAY AND SPC SEE TEXT IN NEW DAY TWO
IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED AND VERY SLIM CHC OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM A STRONGER
CELL OR TWO. THE 8H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN NOW
AND WED AFTN/EVE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE
THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN WHAT SHOULD OCCUR ON
TUESDAY/TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD GET
SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290342
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED OR MOVED SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WHERE THE COOLEST...MEAN 850-700
MB TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NWRLY LLVL OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290342
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED OR MOVED SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WHERE THE COOLEST...MEAN 850-700
MB TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NWRLY LLVL OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED OR MOVED SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WHERE THE COOLEST...MEAN 850-700
MB TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NWRLY LLVL OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED OR MOVED SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AND
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WHERE THE COOLEST...MEAN 850-700
MB TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NWRLY LLVL OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290106
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
906 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SECONDARY LOBE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WAS DRIFTING OVER
THE MTNS OF WRN PENN THIS EVENING...HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...AND SECONDARY CFRONT/
WILL BE EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

A FAIRLY THICK...DUAL LAYER OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL
HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY
/ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SPRINKLES/ BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP.
SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290106
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
906 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SECONDARY LOBE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WAS DRIFTING OVER
THE MTNS OF WRN PENN THIS EVENING...HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...AND SECONDARY CFRONT/
WILL BE EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

A FAIRLY THICK...DUAL LAYER OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL
HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY
/ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SPRINKLES/ BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP.
SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
811 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
811 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
618 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
618 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE
RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE
W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD
AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD
MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN
22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND
00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
THE SE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.

IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281801
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281801
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
REDEVELOPED UNDER THE STRONG UPPER LOW...AND WERE INITIALLY
CONFINED TO NY STATE BUT ARE WRAPPING BACK AROUND TO SPREAD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INTO MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS...BUT PRECIP NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND ALSO MOVING ALONG WHICH IS
KEEPING ANY WATER CONCERNS LOW. HRRR SHOWS PRECIP NORTH OF BAND
OVER MY CWA DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIDN/T
TOTALLY BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION...THOUGH DID KEEP BASIC TREND OF
NOTICABLY LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO THE TURNPIKE. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING IN THESE FOR QUITE A WHILE ON MEAGER LAPSE RATES...SO
DIDN/T MENTION. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY EVENING. BIGGEST IMPACTS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LINE
OF GUSTY HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSHES SOUTHWARD...IMPACTING KIPT-KUNV
AND POSS KJST-KAOO...BEFORE DISSIPATING. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THESE SHOWERS AND ALSO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. GUSTY
NW-W WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE AS COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

RADAR SCOPE SHOULD BE CLEAN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST IN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS /KBFD-KJST/. LIGHT
FOG ALSO POSS AREAWIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX.
WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...ISO SHOWERS NW. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM.

THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST
SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE
WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING
THAT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER.

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW
FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW
UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL
EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE
JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE TODAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY ON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS TODAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
HEIGHTS RISE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT STILL SOME
CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED.

WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM.

THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST
SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE
WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING
THAT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER.

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW
FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW
UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL
EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE
JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE TODAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY ON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS TODAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
HEIGHTS RISE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT STILL SOME
CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED.

WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM.

THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST
SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE
WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING
THAT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER.

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW
FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW
UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL
EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE
JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE EARLY TODAY
WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE
STATE TODAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TODAY...AS HEIGHTS COME UP
SOME.

BEEN UPDATING TAFS AS NEEDED.

06Z AND 09Z TAFS SENT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM.

THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST
SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE
WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING
THAT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER.

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW
FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW
UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL
EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE
JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE EARLY TODAY
WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE
STATE TODAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TODAY...AS HEIGHTS COME UP
SOME.

BEEN UPDATING TAFS AS NEEDED.

06Z AND 09Z TAFS SENT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM.

THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST
SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE
WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING THAT
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN TIER.

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW
FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW
UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL
EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE
JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AVERAGING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR THE WATCH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WE STILL
HAVE A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
KEEP THE WATCH RUNNING THROUGH 2AM TO DEAL WITH THE COUNTIES BEING
AFFECTED...BUT OVERALL WE ARE STABILIZING AND OTHER THAN SOME
HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD KEEP DIMINISHING.

FROM EARLIER...

VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FIRST ROUND OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING OCCURRED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...AND A SPOTTER REPORT OF WELL OVER 5 INCHES AT
SHERMANSDALE (RAIN GAGE TOPPED OUT AND OVERFLOWED AT 5 INCHES).
SPORADIC SEVERE REPORTED FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS PRELIMINARY UPPER
TROF ROTATES THROUGH...AND 40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY CREST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

MAIN SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW
APPROACHING WRN PA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO...AND CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING A RAPID
END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF SOME SORT OF
DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS
THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FIRST ROUND OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING OCCURRED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...AND A SPOTTER REPORT OF WELL OVER 5 INCHES AT
SHERMANSDALE (RAIN GAGE TOPPED OUT AND OVERFLOWED AT 5 INCHES).
SPORADIC SEVERE REPORTED FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS PRELIMINARY UPPER
TROF ROTATES THROUGH...AND 40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY CREST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

MAIN SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW
APPROACHING WRN PA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO...AND CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING A RAPID
END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF SOME SORT OF
DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS
THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENCHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FIRST ROUND OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING OCCURRED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...AND A SPOTTER REPORT OF WELL OVER 5 INCHES AT
SHERMANSDALE (RAIN GAGE TOPPED OUT AND OVERFLOWED AT 5 INCHES).
SPORADIC SEVERE REPORTED FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS PRELIMINARY UPPER
TROF ROTATES THROUGH...AND 40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY CREST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

MAIN SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW
APPROACHING WRN PA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO...AND CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING A RAPID
END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF SOME SORT OF
DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS
THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENCHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION MINIMUM SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON UNTIL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST. EDGED TEMPS FOR TODAY UPWARD AS
LIMITED CLOUDS ALLOWING LOW LEVELS TO WARM NICELY...88F AT
HARRISBURG AT 17Z.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF EVENTS IN
STORE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS MOISTURE
SURGES IN ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET INTO W PA /DEWPOINT
INCREASES ON THE ORDER OF 5-8F/...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND STRONG JET STREAK AS TROUGH APPROACHES SHOULD BRING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO W PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KMDT AND SOUTHWARD. STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN SW PORTION OF CWA...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG PA TURNPIKE HEADING EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE /TAPPING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG
CAPE/ WITH ISO HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO BEING
POTENTIALLY SLOWER MOVERS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS. IN NORTHEAST POART OF CWA...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A SINGLE STRONG SQUALL LINE
OR SMALLER BROKEN SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM
AND THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING IT...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. WITH THE 850 LOW AND
JET EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN PA...THE STRONG VEERING
FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND HELICITY SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING
A RAPID END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF
SOME SORT OF DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL
ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK
ABOUT ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENCHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION MINIMUM SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON UNTIL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST. EDGED TEMPS FOR TODAY UPWARD AS
LIMITED CLOUDS ALLOWING LOW LEVELS TO WARM NICELY...88F AT
HARRISBURG AT 17Z.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF EVENTS IN
STORE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS MOISTURE
SURGES IN ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET INTO W PA /DEWPOINT
INCREASES ON THE ORDER OF 5-8F/...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND STRONG JET STREAK AS TROUGH APPROACHES SHOULD BRING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO W PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KMDT AND SOUTHWARD. STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN SW PORTION OF CWA...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG PA TURNPIKE HEADING EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE /TAPPING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG
CAPE/ WITH ISO HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO BEING
POTENTIALLY SLOWER MOVERS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS. IN NORTHEAST POART OF CWA...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A SINGLE STRONG SQUALL LINE
OR SMALLER BROKEN SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM
AND THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING IT...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. WITH THE 850 LOW AND
JET EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN PA...THE STRONG VEERING
FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND HELICITY SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING
A RAPID END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF
SOME SORT OF DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL
ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK
ABOUT ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENCHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





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