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000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
659 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCOMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291531
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291531
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 291149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
749 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 10AM AND GIVE WAY
TO HAZY SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES TO THE LOW 90S
FROM THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 90F IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
APPROACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY.

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW/ISOLATED
RISK OF A LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG A
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WAVERING NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS
OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA TARGETS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ERN TN TO SW VA TO WV-MD PNHDLS/ WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS LOCALLY
ARE AOB 20 PCT FROM SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.

THE BEST H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS/LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WSWLY LLJ PRECEDING THE PROGRESSIVE SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...REACHING THE
PA/OH BORDER BY 12Z THU. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
429 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 10AM AND GIVE WAY
TO HAZY SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES TO THE LOW 90S
FROM THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 90F IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
APPROACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY.

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW/ISOLATED
RISK OF A LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG A
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WAVERING NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS
OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA TARGETS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ERN TN TO SW VA TO WV-MD PNHDLS/ WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS LOCALLY
ARE AOB 20 PCT FROM SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.

THE BEST H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS/LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WSWLY LLJ PRECEDING THE PROGRESSIVE SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...REACHING THE
PA/OH BORDER BY 12Z THU. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM ONLY TRICKLES OF MVFR ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY
ONLY THV AND SEG ARE MVFR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4 OR MORE
AT LNS...MDT...IPT AND JST. AS THESE SITES ARE STILL FAIRLY
DRY...EVEN CONSIDERING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ANY
FOG/LOW STRATOCU WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE AT UNV...AOO AND
BFD. HERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 3 OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL. LIKEWISE WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES
ARE CLEARING. SO EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 07Z TO 09Z AND INCREASE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. MDT
AND LNS AND IPT SHOULD GO MVFR WITH IPT HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
429 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 10AM AND GIVE WAY
TO HAZY SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES TO THE LOW 90S
FROM THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 90F IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
APPROACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY.

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW/ISOLATED
RISK OF A LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG A
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WAVERING NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS
OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA TARGETS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ERN TN TO SW VA TO WV-MD PNHDLS/ WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS LOCALLY
ARE AOB 20 PCT FROM SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.

THE BEST H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS/LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WSWLY LLJ PRECEDING THE PROGRESSIVE SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...REACHING THE
PA/OH BORDER BY 12Z THU. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM ONLY TRICKLES OF MVFR ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY
ONLY THV AND SEG ARE MVFR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4 OR MORE
AT LNS...MDT...IPT AND JST. AS THESE SITES ARE STILL FAIRLY
DRY...EVEN CONSIDERING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ANY
FOG/LOW STRATOCU WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE AT UNV...AOO AND
BFD. HERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 3 OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL. LIKEWISE WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES
ARE CLEARING. SO EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 07Z TO 09Z AND INCREASE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. MDT
AND LNS AND IPT SHOULD GO MVFR WITH IPT HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290557
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM ONLY TRICKLES OF MVFR ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY
ONLY THV AND SEG ARE MVFR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4 OR MORE
AT LNS...MDT...IPT AND JST. AS THESE SITES ARE STILL FAIRLY
DRY...EVEN CONSIDERING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ANY
FOG/LOW STRATOCU WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
 THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE AT UNV...AOO AND
BFD. HERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 3 OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL. LIKEWISE WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES
ARE CLEARING. SO EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 07Z TO 09Z AND INCREASE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. MDT
AND LNS AND IPT SHOULD GO MVFR WITH IPT HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290557
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM ONLY TRICKLES OF MVFR ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY
ONLY THV AND SEG ARE MVFR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4 OR MORE
AT LNS...MDT...IPT AND JST. AS THESE SITES ARE STILL FAIRLY
DRY...EVEN CONSIDERING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ANY
FOG/LOW STRATOCU WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
 THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE AT UNV...AOO AND
BFD. HERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 3 OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL. LIKEWISE WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES
ARE CLEARING. SO EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 07Z TO 09Z AND INCREASE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. MDT
AND LNS AND IPT SHOULD GO MVFR WITH IPT HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290557
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM ONLY TRICKLES OF MVFR ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. CURRENTLY
ONLY THV AND SEG ARE MVFR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4 OR MORE
AT LNS...MDT...IPT AND JST. AS THESE SITES ARE STILL FAIRLY
DRY...EVEN CONSIDERING CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ANY
FOG/LOW STRATOCU WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP.
 THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE AT UNV...AOO AND
BFD. HERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 3 OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL. LIKEWISE WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES
ARE CLEARING. SO EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 07Z TO 09Z AND INCREASE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. MDT
AND LNS AND IPT SHOULD GO MVFR WITH IPT HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR AS OF 11PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT
LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP
DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR AS OF 11PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT
LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP
DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR AS OF 11PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT
LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP
DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1122 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR AS OF 11PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT
LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP
DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 290203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY THICK OVER THE NORTH...BUT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN TUE MORNING...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE THAN EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282316
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
716 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY
FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282316
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
716 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY
FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282316
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
716 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY
FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282316
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
716 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY
FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND BRING ABOUT LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE VIZ DROP DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DURING
THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER VFR/SUNNY DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO
ADVANCE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282220
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY
FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME FOG
BEGINS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...WITH SERN TERMINALS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOR
A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 282220
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU FADING FAST AS EVENING ARRIVES. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY
FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME FOG
BEGINS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...WITH SERN TERMINALS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOR
A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME FOG
BEGINS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...WITH SERN TERMINALS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOR
A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 282145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME FOG
BEGINS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...WITH SERN TERMINALS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOR
A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281919
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN
BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS
TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY
ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE
IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. BFD MAY NOT FOG-IN
SINCE THE DEWPOINT IS DOWN TO 53F AT 18Z AND THEY WOULD PROBABLY
NEED TO GET THERE OR LOWER TO MAKE DENSE FOG. GOING FCST IS NOT
THAT COOL. EVEN IF THEY DO FOG UP AT FIRST...THEY SOMETIMES HAVE
THE FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281919
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN
BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS
TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY
ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE
IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. BFD MAY NOT FOG-IN
SINCE THE DEWPOINT IS DOWN TO 53F AT 18Z AND THEY WOULD PROBABLY
NEED TO GET THERE OR LOWER TO MAKE DENSE FOG. GOING FCST IS NOT
THAT COOL. EVEN IF THEY DO FOG UP AT FIRST...THEY SOMETIMES HAVE
THE FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281809
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN
BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS
TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY
ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE
IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. BFD MAY NOT FOG-IN
SINCE THE DEWPOINT IS DOWN TO 53F AT 18Z AND THEY WOULD PROBABLY
NEED TO GET THERE OR LOWER TO MAKE DENSE FOG. GOING FCST IS NOT
THAT COOL. EVEN IF THEY DO FOG UP AT FIRST...THEY SOMETIMES HAVE
THE FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281809
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN
BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS
TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY
ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE
IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. BFD MAY NOT FOG-IN
SINCE THE DEWPOINT IS DOWN TO 53F AT 18Z AND THEY WOULD PROBABLY
NEED TO GET THERE OR LOWER TO MAKE DENSE FOG. GOING FCST IS NOT
THAT COOL. EVEN IF THEY DO FOG UP AT FIRST...THEY SOMETIMES HAVE
THE FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281611
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FOG/STRATUS IS GONE. SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE HAS POPPED THE CU
OVER THE MOST-MOIST LOCATIONS...OFF THE ELEVATIONS FIRST. SOME CU
OUT THE WINDOW WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE CU FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET
CHOKED OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH MORE OF MOISTURE AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY
GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SHOWER. MAXES ON TRACK AFTER THE
INITIALLY COOL START UNDER THE STRATUS C/S BUT A RATHER WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE DAY ON-GOING IN THE NORTH.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY GET LOW
ENOUGH TODAY TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE- SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST SOME HAZE IN THE SRN TERMINALS WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
RUNNING IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT
LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME
AROUND SUNRISE. BFD IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO GO IFR...BUT MAY HAVE THE
FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS BEFORE OF ALONG THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281611
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FOG/STRATUS IS GONE. SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE HAS POPPED THE CU
OVER THE MOST-MOIST LOCATIONS...OFF THE ELEVATIONS FIRST. SOME CU
OUT THE WINDOW WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE CU FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET
CHOKED OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH MORE OF MOISTURE AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY
GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SHOWER. MAXES ON TRACK AFTER THE
INITIALLY COOL START UNDER THE STRATUS C/S BUT A RATHER WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE DAY ON-GOING IN THE NORTH.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY GET LOW
ENOUGH TODAY TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE- SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST SOME HAZE IN THE SRN TERMINALS WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
RUNNING IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT
LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME
AROUND SUNRISE. BFD IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO GO IFR...BUT MAY HAVE THE
FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS BEFORE OF ALONG THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281611
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FOG/STRATUS IS GONE. SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE HAS POPPED THE CU
OVER THE MOST-MOIST LOCATIONS...OFF THE ELEVATIONS FIRST. SOME CU
OUT THE WINDOW WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE CU FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET
CHOKED OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE JUST
ENOUGH MORE OF MOISTURE AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY
GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SHOWER. MAXES ON TRACK AFTER THE
INITIALLY COOL START UNDER THE STRATUS C/S BUT A RATHER WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE DAY ON-GOING IN THE NORTH.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY GET LOW
ENOUGH TODAY TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE- SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST SOME HAZE IN THE SRN TERMINALS WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
RUNNING IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT
LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME
AROUND SUNRISE. BFD IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO GO IFR...BUT MAY HAVE THE
FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS BEFORE OF ALONG THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM...
FOG IS GOING TO BE PRETTY STUBBORN IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SOME OF THE LOWER SUSQ. SOME OF THIS WILL LAST PAST 10AM.
VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK MIXING-AWAY. BUT SUN IS
STILL FAIRLY STRONG IN LATE JULY AND IT WILL EAT AWAY AT THE FOG
FROM THE EGDES. TEMPS NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW
HRS AS A RESULT.

PREV...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM...
FOG IS GOING TO BE PRETTY STUBBORN IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SOME OF THE LOWER SUSQ. SOME OF THIS WILL LAST PAST 10AM.
VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK MIXING-AWAY. BUT SUN IS
STILL FAIRLY STRONG IN LATE JULY AND IT WILL EAT AWAY AT THE FOG
FROM THE EGDES. TEMPS NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW
HRS AS A RESULT.

PREV...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM...
FOG IS GOING TO BE PRETTY STUBBORN IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SOME OF THE LOWER SUSQ. SOME OF THIS WILL LAST PAST 10AM.
VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK MIXING-AWAY. BUT SUN IS
STILL FAIRLY STRONG IN LATE JULY AND IT WILL EAT AWAY AT THE FOG
FROM THE EGDES. TEMPS NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW
HRS AS A RESULT.

PREV...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281203
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM...
FOG IS GOING TO BE PRETTY STUBBORN IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SOME OF THE LOWER SUSQ. SOME OF THIS WILL LAST PAST 10AM.
VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK MIXING-AWAY. BUT SUN IS
STILL FAIRLY STRONG IN LATE JULY AND IT WILL EAT AWAY AT THE FOG
FROM THE EGDES. TEMPS NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR THE FIRST FEW
HRS AS A RESULT.

PREV...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 281148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 281148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. LOWER THAN IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
9 AND 11 BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW SKIES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR IN AM FOG THEN MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10Z...VISBYS HAVE DECLINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS FOG HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED FOR SPS VS. DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NOT
ALL SITES 1/4SM OR LESS. THE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE BURNING OFF
BTWN 8-9AM. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
WILL SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL ADD THE DAY 3/THU SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280759
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM  UP ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES BUT AGAIN EXPECT OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY WILL
SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING
ACROSSTHE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE MAIN EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ADD THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280759
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH RIVER TO
AROUND THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA
SHOWS ISOLD SLOW MOVG AIRMASS TYPE TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL PA INTO NRN WV/MD PNHDLS...LKLY AIDED BY ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCES OR TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT. PWS BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 20 PCT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE. THE BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE WHERE BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER M/CLR NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FCST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LKLY REACHING 90F. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH 95F OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWS
WILL BE COUNTERED A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A TSTM CAP WITH H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
TSTM  UP ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGES BUT AGAIN EXPECT OVERALL
COVERAGE BE VERY ISOLD AT BEST. WED NGT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. A MODEST SURGE IN
LOW TO MID LVL THETA-E ADV ASSOCD WITH WSWLY H85 LLJ AXIS
PRECEDING COLD FRONT MOVG ESEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY WILL
SUPPORT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING
ACROSSTHE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY/D3...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY-DAY WAA CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THE MAIN EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROMOTE SCT-NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES AND MARGINAL RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ADD THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO THE HWO. MAX
TEMPS ON THURS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

 THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

 THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

 THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

 THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE
PENN/NEW YORK BORDER LATE THIS EVENING.

DECENT /VFR TO HIGH END MVFR/ FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THE 07Z-11Z TIMEFRAME TUESDAY...THE
LIGHT WIND...CLEAR SKIES...AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS /IN THE 60S...TO
NEAR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF IFR
FOG AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS. LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS BURNS AWAY TUES...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS
NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE
PENN/NEW YORK BORDER LATE THIS EVENING.

DECENT /VFR TO HIGH END MVFR/ FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THE 07Z-11Z TIMEFRAME TUESDAY...THE
LIGHT WIND...CLEAR SKIES...AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS /IN THE 60S...TO
NEAR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF IFR
FOG AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS. LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS BURNS AWAY TUES...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS
NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE
PENN/NEW YORK BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR VERY LIGHT EAST TO NE
WIND WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENN...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE AREA OF FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN
07Z-11Z TUESDAY.

MANY LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY
TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE
PENN/NEW YORK BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR VERY LIGHT EAST TO NE
WIND WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENN...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE AREA OF FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN
07Z-11Z TUESDAY.

MANY LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY
TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 280045
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IN THE MID SUQ VALLEY...SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH A
FEW NEW CELLS WILL PROB REGENERATE IN THESE AREAS VIA GUST FRONT
INTERACTIONS. AN ISOLATED CELL STILL POSS THROUGH MID EVE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. QUITE MILD TEMPS
WILL JUST SLOWLY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVE...WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FASTER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE
PENN/NEW YORK BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR VERY LIGHT EAST TO NE
WIND WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENN...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE AREA OF FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN
07Z-11Z TUESDAY.

MANY LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY
TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 280045
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IN THE MID SUQ VALLEY...SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH A
FEW NEW CELLS WILL PROB REGENERATE IN THESE AREAS VIA GUST FRONT
INTERACTIONS. AN ISOLATED CELL STILL POSS THROUGH MID EVE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. QUITE MILD TEMPS
WILL JUST SLOWLY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVE...WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FASTER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN...ESE ALONG THE
PENN/NEW YORK BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR VERY LIGHT EAST TO NE
WIND WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENN...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE AREA OF FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN
07Z-11Z TUESDAY.

MANY LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY
TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IN THE MID SUQ VALLEY...SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH A
FEW NEW CELLS WILL PROB REGENERATE IN THESE AREAS VIA GUST FRONT
INTERACTIONS. AN ISOLATED CELL STILL POSS THROUGH MID EVE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. QUITE MILD TEMPS
WILL JUST SLOWLY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVE...WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FASTER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IN THE MID SUQ VALLEY...SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH A
FEW NEW CELLS WILL PROB REGENERATE IN THESE AREAS VIA GUST FRONT
INTERACTIONS. AN ISOLATED CELL STILL POSS THROUGH MID EVE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. QUITE MILD TEMPS
WILL JUST SLOWLY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVE...WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FASTER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IN THE MID SUQ VALLEY...SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH A
FEW NEW CELLS WILL PROB REGENERATE IN THESE AREAS VIA GUST FRONT
INTERACTIONS. AN ISOLATED CELL STILL POSS THROUGH MID EVE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. QUITE MILD TEMPS
WILL JUST SLOWLY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVE...WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FASTER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IN THE MID SUQ VALLEY...SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH A
FEW NEW CELLS WILL PROB REGENERATE IN THESE AREAS VIA GUST FRONT
INTERACTIONS. AN ISOLATED CELL STILL POSS THROUGH MID EVE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. QUITE MILD TEMPS
WILL JUST SLOWLY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVE...WHILE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FASTER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 272242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 272242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING HAS WASHED OUT FROM THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...
WESTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

A RIBBON OF HIGHER AMTS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARCS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DVLPMT OF THE
CU FIELD AND SUPPORT A FEW...HIGHLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE DRIFTING SSE.

DRIEST AIR WAS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND NRN TIER OF PENN.

WILL BE REMOVING MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FROM THE KMDT AND KLNS
TAFS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IN THAT AREA.

THE CU AND TCU WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT NOW OVER KMDT/KCXY...AND NOT MOVING MUCH. MORE STORMS
EXPECTED THRU 03Z...BUT MOST WILL BE GONE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EVEN THOUGH THE SHRA/TSRA FIRE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST
TODAY...THEY WILL DRIFT TO THE SE SLOWLY. EXPECT ONLY VERY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND FEW REDUCTIONS IN CIG THO. SKIES CLEAR OUT
AND FOG WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW
CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS
NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT NOW OVER KMDT/KCXY...AND NOT MOVING MUCH. MORE STORMS
EXPECTED THRU 03Z...BUT MOST WILL BE GONE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EVEN THOUGH THE SHRA/TSRA FIRE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST
TODAY...THEY WILL DRIFT TO THE SE SLOWLY. EXPECT ONLY VERY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND FEW REDUCTIONS IN CIG THO. SKIES CLEAR OUT
AND FOG WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW
CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS
NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT NOW OVER KMDT/KCXY...AND NOT MOVING MUCH. MORE STORMS
EXPECTED THRU 03Z...BUT MOST WILL BE GONE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EVEN THOUGH THE SHRA/TSRA FIRE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST
TODAY...THEY WILL DRIFT TO THE SE SLOWLY. EXPECT ONLY VERY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND FEW REDUCTIONS IN CIG THO. SKIES CLEAR OUT
AND FOG WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW
CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS
NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ABLE TO GROW OVER PA AS OF 18Z...BUT PEAK
HEATING STILL TO COME. MANY MORE SHRA/TSRA JUST TO THE S OF PA/MD
BORDER. THE FRONT APPEARS ON SFC PRES AND WIND ANALYSIS TO BE
OVER KMDT AND KHGR AND THEN GO WEST TO KMGW. THUS...MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BUT THE ELEVATED
HEATING SFCS OF THE RIDGETOPS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION ARE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CLOUDS
UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. MORE HEAT AND BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND COVG SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
5-7 PM THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. PWATS STILL UP TO 1.6 INCHES IN THE
SRN TIER AND 8H-3H MEAN WIND ONLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NW. SFC-BASED
CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 1000 AND 200 JOULES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS...SOME PLACES COULD PICK UP A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT
ONLY A FEW HOT SPOTS WHERE STORMS REGENERATE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR
RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN MAKE BIG PUDDLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND CAUSES SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT. THE SUMMERY DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND STILL AIR
WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER.
MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY NICE IF YOU LIKE THE HOT AND HUMID STUFF. MAXES
WILL RUN AT 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 575 THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF
18-20C. M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT NOW OVER KMDT/KCXY...AND NOT MOVING MUCH. MORE STORMS
EXPECTED THRU 03Z...BUT MOST WILL BE GONE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EVEN THOUGH THE SHRA/TSRA FIRE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST
TODAY...THEY WILL DRIFT TO THE SE SLOWLY. EXPECT ONLY VERY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND FEW REDUCTIONS IN CIG THO. SKIES CLEAR OUT
AND FOG WILL BECOME A PROBLEM FOR MANY SITES OVERNIGHT. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD GO IFR OR EVEN LIFR AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW
CROSSOVER TEMPS. AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS BRNS AWAY TUES...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS
NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271527
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1127 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY MADE AS THE FOG IS GONE AND THE STRATUS
RECEDING QUICKLY NOW AFTER A STRUGGLE. BUT THE CU ARE POPPING UP
TO TAKE IT/S PLACE. STARTED TO MENTION SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALL STORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

8 AM...
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS
STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES.
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY.

PREV...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS TO ALL BUT KBFD AS THE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION - POPPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS
TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271527
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1127 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY MADE AS THE FOG IS GONE AND THE STRATUS
RECEDING QUICKLY NOW AFTER A STRUGGLE. BUT THE CU ARE POPPING UP
TO TAKE IT/S PLACE. STARTED TO MENTION SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALL STORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

8 AM...
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS
STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES.
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY.

PREV...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS TO ALL BUT KBFD AS THE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION - POPPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS
TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271249
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
849 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM...
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS
STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES.
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY.

PREV...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271249
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
849 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM...
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS
STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES.
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY.

PREV...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271249
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
849 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM...
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS
STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES.
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY.

PREV...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271249
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
849 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM...
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS
STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES.
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY.

PREV...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271205
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271205
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271205
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 271205
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
15Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLOWLY
CLEARING SKIES...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNRISE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...UNV...AOO...IPT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SLOWLY
AFTER SUNRISE...AND TO BE GONE BY 15Z AT THE LATEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG
POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD
BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS
DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL
IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS
ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT.

MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING
DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY
00Z WED.

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN
UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLOWLY
CLEARING SKIES...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNRISE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...UNV...AOO...IPT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SLOWLY
AFTER SUNRISE...AND TO BE GONE BY 15Z AT THE LATEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG
POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270804
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
404 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 3" + KEEPING US BUSY INTO THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO EXIT MY AREA
BY 400 AM. IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL LAST ALL NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POPS WERE PREVIOUSLY TRIMMED TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ THROUGH 09Z.

SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE RAIN FELL AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUITY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLOWLY
CLEARING SKIES...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNRISE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...UNV...AOO...IPT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SLOWLY
AFTER SUNRISE...AND TO BE GONE BY 15Z AT THE LATEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG
POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270804
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
404 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 3" + KEEPING US BUSY INTO THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO EXIT MY AREA
BY 400 AM. IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL LAST ALL NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POPS WERE PREVIOUSLY TRIMMED TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ THROUGH 09Z.

SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE RAIN FELL AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUITY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLOWLY
CLEARING SKIES...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNRISE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...UNV...AOO...IPT SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SLOWLY
AFTER SUNRISE...AND TO BE GONE BY 15Z AT THE LATEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG
POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270549
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 3" + KEEPING US BUSY INTO THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO EXIT MY AREA
BY 400 AM. IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL LAST ALL NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POPS WERE PREVIOUSLY TRIMMED TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ THROUGH 09Z.

SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE RAIN FELL AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KIPT TO KAVP.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. VCSH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR
MOST OF THE TIME. TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK
MORE OMINOUS THAN CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE.

THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT
TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED
AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION 1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT
MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS.

LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
AROUND THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
MON NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270236
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC CFRONT OVER SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAS
MELDED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2.25 INCHES INVOF BELLEFONTE
/CENTRE COUNTY/ AND MOUNT JOY /LANCASTER COUNTY/ RESPECTIVELY.
THESE VALUES ARE SPOT ON WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST
7 HOURS. SOME PINPOINT ESTIMATES OF 3.5 TO NEARLY 5 INCHES
OCCURRED ACROSS NW LANCASTER...AND SE MCKEAN COUNTIES. THE LATTER
HIGHER TOTAL OVER MCKEAN COUNTY APPEARED TO FALL ALONG A RIDGE
LINE WITH DRAINAGE SPLIT BETWEEN TRIBS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER
AND WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...AND CALLS TO THEIR EOC
INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POPS WERE TRIMMED TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHILE LINGERING SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY SWD DRIFTING
CFRONT WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA /SOME
WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/...NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WILL /AVERAGE/ AROUND 0.50 INCH BETWEEN NOW AND 10Z. HOWEVER...ANY
TRAINING TSRA WILL EASILY DROP 1-2 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR.

SOME SHOWERS MAY LAST ALL NIGHT IN THE SERN COS. CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE - BUT MAINLY OVER THE NW. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KIPT TO KAVP.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. VCSH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR
MOST OF THE TIME. TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK
MORE OMINOUS THAN CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE.

THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT
TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED
AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION 1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT
MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS.

LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
AROUND THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
MON NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270236
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC CFRONT OVER SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAS
MELDED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2.25 INCHES INVOF BELLEFONTE
/CENTRE COUNTY/ AND MOUNT JOY /LANCASTER COUNTY/ RESPECTIVELY.
THESE VALUES ARE SPOT ON WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST
7 HOURS. SOME PINPOINT ESTIMATES OF 3.5 TO NEARLY 5 INCHES
OCCURRED ACROSS NW LANCASTER...AND SE MCKEAN COUNTIES. THE LATTER
HIGHER TOTAL OVER MCKEAN COUNTY APPEARED TO FALL ALONG A RIDGE
LINE WITH DRAINAGE SPLIT BETWEEN TRIBS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER
AND WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...AND CALLS TO THEIR EOC
INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POPS WERE TRIMMED TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHILE LINGERING SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY SWD DRIFTING
CFRONT WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA /SOME
WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/...NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
WILL /AVERAGE/ AROUND 0.50 INCH BETWEEN NOW AND 10Z. HOWEVER...ANY
TRAINING TSRA WILL EASILY DROP 1-2 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR.

SOME SHOWERS MAY LAST ALL NIGHT IN THE SERN COS. CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE - BUT MAINLY OVER THE NW. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KIPT TO KAVP.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. VCSH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR
MOST OF THE TIME. TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK
MORE OMINOUS THAN CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE.

THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT
TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED
AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION 1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT
MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS.

LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
AROUND THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
MON NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC CFRONT SAGGING SE FROM NWRN PENN EARLY THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...POCKETS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KT UPPER JETLET
TO FORM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME SLOW-MOVING...HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING TSRA.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION...AND RAINFALL RATES...WILL
STAY FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS /WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS
CELLS OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN AFTER 02Z...BUT CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING
PULSE TSRA MAY STILL REMAIN THROUGH 04Z-05Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS.

SOME SHOWERS MAY LAST ALL NIGHT IN THE SERN COS. CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE - BUT MAINLY OVER THE NW. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE FOR LATER
TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT OR LOW
CLOUDS AT LEAST GO AWAY /DESPITE LINGERING MID CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL COS/.

MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ.
ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT
ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND
WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN
THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS
IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H
TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE.

AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KIPT TO KAVP.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. VCSH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR
MOST OF THE TIME. TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK
MORE OMINOUS THAN CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE.

THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT
TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED
AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION 1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT
MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS.

LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
AROUND THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
MON NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER





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