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000
FXUS61 KCTP 031356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
956 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING SHOULD BE GONE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPING OVER SWRN PA MAY IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LEADING EDGE OF AREA OF
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
AND HAZE REMAIN. EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES BY
15-16Z.

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL
PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BTWN 18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
956 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING SHOULD BE GONE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPING OVER SWRN PA MAY IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LEADING EDGE OF AREA OF
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
AND HAZE REMAIN. EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES BY
15-16Z.

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL
PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BTWN 18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
956 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING SHOULD BE GONE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPING OVER SWRN PA MAY IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LEADING EDGE OF AREA OF
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
AND HAZE REMAIN. EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES BY
15-16Z.

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL
PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BTWN 18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
956 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING SHOULD BE GONE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPING OVER SWRN PA MAY IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS LEADING EDGE OF AREA OF
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
AND HAZE REMAIN. EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES BY
15-16Z.

VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL
PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BTWN 18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS AM. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT
KIPT UNTIL ARND 13Z AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBFD UNTIL
ARND 14Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z APPEAR
LOW.

AFTER THE EARLY AM FOG BURNS OFF...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 031140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS AM. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT
KIPT UNTIL ARND 13Z AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBFD UNTIL
ARND 14Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z APPEAR
LOW.

AFTER THE EARLY AM FOG BURNS OFF...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS AM. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT
KIPT UNTIL ARND 13Z AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBFD UNTIL
ARND 14Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z APPEAR
LOW.

AFTER THE EARLY AM FOG BURNS OFF...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS AM. AT 09Z...ONLY KBFD IS EXPERIENCING SIG /IFR/ REDUCTIONS.
HOWEVER...DWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS STILL
REMAINS LIKELY AT KIPT AND POSSIBLE AT KUNV/KAOO/KLNS BTWN 10Z-13Z.
ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS AM. AT 09Z...ONLY KBFD IS EXPERIENCING SIG /IFR/ REDUCTIONS.
HOWEVER...DWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS STILL
REMAINS LIKELY AT KIPT AND POSSIBLE AT KUNV/KAOO/KLNS BTWN 10Z-13Z.
ELSEWHERE...ODDS OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030811
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
411 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LKLY AREA WOULD SEEM TO BE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS GIVEN STORMS
DRIFTING SSEWD SOUTH/WEST OF KPIT. THAT SAID...RADAR SHOWS A LONE
SHOWER DEVELOPING NW OF LOCK HAVEN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE SPATIAL
VARIABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.

MODEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DRIFTING ESEWD OVER LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIRES NCAR/SSEO MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GLOBAL SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...SEEM TO BE
FAVORING A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER OH VLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN
WV/SWRN PA WITH THE GREATEST RISK/PROBABILITY FOR STORMS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER LOW POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS PAINTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE N/W
ALLEGHENIES.

HIGH MSTR CONTENT AND FCST MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK
UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER-LOADING-RELATED WIND
GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR
DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF
YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV
IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING
SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY...BUT
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED-THU IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING
DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN
SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
PA AT 06Z /ESP NORTH OF I-80/. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL AND FOG TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TOWARD DAWN. KBFD ALREADY REPORTING FOG AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU ARND 13Z. KAOO HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO IMPLIES A
LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT BTWN 09Z-13Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS
OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW...ESP AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030612
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
PA AT 06Z /ESP NORTH OF I-80/. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL AND FOG TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TOWARD DAWN. KBFD ALREADY REPORTING FOG AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU ARND 13Z. KAOO HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO IMPLIES A
LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT BTWN 09Z-13Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS
OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW...ESP AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030612
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
PA AT 06Z /ESP NORTH OF I-80/. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL AND FOG TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TOWARD DAWN. KBFD ALREADY REPORTING FOG AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU ARND 13Z. KAOO HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO IMPLIES A
LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT BTWN 09Z-13Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS
OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW...ESP AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030612
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
PA AT 06Z /ESP NORTH OF I-80/. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL AND FOG TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TOWARD DAWN. KBFD ALREADY REPORTING FOG AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU ARND 13Z. KAOO HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO IMPLIES A
LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT BTWN 09Z-13Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS
OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW...ESP AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030612
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
PA AT 06Z /ESP NORTH OF I-80/. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL AND FOG TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TOWARD DAWN. KBFD ALREADY REPORTING FOG AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU ARND 13Z. KAOO HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO IMPLIES A
LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT BTWN 09Z-13Z. ELSEWHERE...ODDS
OF SIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LOW...ESP AT KJST AND KMDT.

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GRT LKS WILL PRODUCE SCT PM TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BTWN
18Z-00Z.

PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...ESP
AT KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE FAR WRN ZONES
GIVEN RECENT/UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL DATA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA SHOULD INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN
QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE
ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB
WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030325
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS IN
STORE...WITH VISIBILITIES ALREADY STARTING TO FALL AT BRADFORD AND
ALTOONA. ALTOONA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CRASHING TO BELOW MINIMUMS
DUE TO THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN THEY RECEIVED.

REDUCED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 030124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS
HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC.

MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE. EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS AND FOG MENTIONS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE. EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS AND FOG MENTIONS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE. EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS AND FOG MENTIONS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE. EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS AND FOG MENTIONS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES BY.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
631 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE. EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS AND FOG MENTIONS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
631 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF TRACKING OVER NRN VA IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE. EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS AND FOG MENTIONS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 022149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED
ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ADDED VCTS AT AOO AND JST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AOO OB NA FOR THE TIME BEING.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON THE TENDENCY
THIS MORNING.

NO REAL CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THUS...MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED
ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ADDED VCTS AT AOO AND JST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AOO OB NA FOR THE TIME BEING.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON THE TENDENCY
THIS MORNING.

NO REAL CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THUS...MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED
ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ADDED VCTS AT AOO AND JST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AOO OB NA FOR THE TIME BEING.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON THE TENDENCY
THIS MORNING.

NO REAL CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THUS...MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
246 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE
WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN
SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ADDED VCTS AT AOO AND JST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AOO OB NA FOR THE TIME BEING.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON THE TENDENCY
THIS MORNING.

NO REAL CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THUS...MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
246 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE
WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN
SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ADDED VCTS AT AOO AND JST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AOO OB NA FOR THE TIME BEING.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED FCST BASED ON THE TENDENCY
THIS MORNING.

NO REAL CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THUS...MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021540
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DID CUT BACK POPS SOME...MAIN AREA THAT MAY SEE A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL BE SOUTHERN PA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT ON THE UPDATE.

WILL ADJUST MORE IF NEEDED ON THE 18Z PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021540
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DID CUT BACK POPS SOME...MAIN AREA THAT MAY SEE A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL BE SOUTHERN PA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT ON THE UPDATE.

WILL ADJUST MORE IF NEEDED ON THE 18Z PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021540
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DID CUT BACK POPS SOME...MAIN AREA THAT MAY SEE A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL BE SOUTHERN PA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID ADJUST TAFS FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT ON THE UPDATE.

WILL ADJUST MORE IF NEEDED ON THE 18Z PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021211
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
811 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER ON THE UPDATE HERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021211
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
811 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER ON THE UPDATE HERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 021148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING. WITH
IPT...LNS AND AOO AS THE IFR AND LOWER HOLDOUTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 14Z.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSRA SOUTH OF JST. WITH THE PROBABILITY TO INTERSECT
ANY TAF SITES LOW HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER
EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY
TO RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER
EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY
TO RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER
EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY
TO RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/HZ WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM ESP IN THE NORTH WHERE IR
STLT SHOWS CLR SKIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/WEBCAMS FOR
POSSIBLE SPS ISSUANCE FOR COMMUTE IMPACTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV TODAY.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER SRN BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

STARTED WITH PERSISTENCE AS BACKGROUND GRID FOR DAY 1 MAX/MIN
TEMPS AND BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY BY EARLY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. MORE FOG
LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
WHOLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEPT/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD
LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRL PA BASED ON
A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL
SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SOME TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z. ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER
EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY
TO RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020632
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
 OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z.
 ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN
PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO
RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020632
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
 OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z.
 ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN
PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO
RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020632
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
 OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z.
 ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN
PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO
RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020632
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
 OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z.
 ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN
PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO
RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOG HAS ALREADY CRASHED THE VIZ AT BRADFORD. ELSEWHERE A HAZY
WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 020145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
THIN CIRRUS WISPS RIDING INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF THIS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 012347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
THIN CIRRUS WISPS RIDING INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF THIS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
728 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS UNDER WAY OVER THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING
RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 012328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
728 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS UNDER WAY OVER THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING
RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 012145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011512
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS ALMOST GONE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCH OVER TIOGA CO. THIS
TOO SHALL PASS. THE CU HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN THE LAURELS AND
MID SUSQ/POCONOS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING TO HAPPEN THIS AFTN
MAY WIPE SOME OF THOSE AWAY DESPITE THE CURRENTLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP BACK INTO THE L60S AND PERHAPS U50S
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVS THIS AFTN. CHC FOR PCPN IS STILL MIGHTY LOW
GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. ONLY THE LAURELS OR NERN
MTNS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT A SPRINKLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011512
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS ALMOST GONE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCH OVER TIOGA CO. THIS
TOO SHALL PASS. THE CU HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN THE LAURELS AND
MID SUSQ/POCONOS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING TO HAPPEN THIS AFTN
MAY WIPE SOME OF THOSE AWAY DESPITE THE CURRENTLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP BACK INTO THE L60S AND PERHAPS U50S
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVS THIS AFTN. CHC FOR PCPN IS STILL MIGHTY LOW
GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. ONLY THE LAURELS OR NERN
MTNS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT A SPRINKLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KCTP 011157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATUERS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATUERS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010701
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010701
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 010206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 312150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW
OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE
NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE
INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNSET IN THE CENTRAL COS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE
EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW
OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE
NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE
INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNSET IN THE CENTRAL COS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE
EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW
OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE
NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE
INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNST IN THE CENTRAL COS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE
EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU





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