Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCTP 270650
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...IT WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAST OF THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF MY FAR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONCERN IS
THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STUCK IN A LOW OVERCAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CHECK OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR
SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/06Z UPDATE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT /IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY/S SNOWSTORM/ WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH
OF PENN AIRFIELDS TODAY.

VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF A LINE FROM
KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WHILE MVFR WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS OF NRN AND WRN PENN. KJST SHOULD STAY VLIFR-
LIFR THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO UPPER END IFR OR
MVFR AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AFTERWARD...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO CU /TOPPED BY A LAYER OR TWO
OF ALTOCU AND CIRRUS/ AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH
18-21Z TODAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /FROM KBFD TO KJST/.

EARLY TO M SEE NO REASON
TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS. VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS
BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE.

SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO
PERSIST. COINCIDING WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN THE NW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS. THE 09Z TAF UPDATE WILL
CONTAIN MORE DETAIL OF LATE DAY/NIGHT-TIME WINDS WHICH SHOULD
GUST IN EXCESS OF 20KTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN PENN. GUSTS
ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS - MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270650
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...IT WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAST OF THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF MY FAR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONCERN IS
THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STUCK IN A LOW OVERCAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CHECK OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR
SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/06Z UPDATE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT /IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY/S SNOWSTORM/ WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH
OF PENN AIRFIELDS TODAY.

VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF A LINE FROM
KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WHILE MVFR WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS OF NRN AND WRN PENN. KJST SHOULD STAY VLIFR-
LIFR THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO UPPER END IFR OR
MVFR AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AFTERWARD...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO CU /TOPPED BY A LAYER OR TWO
OF ALTOCU AND CIRRUS/ AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH
18-21Z TODAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /FROM KBFD TO KJST/.

EARLY TO M SEE NO REASON
TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS. VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS
BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE.

SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO
PERSIST. COINCIDING WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN THE NW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS. THE 09Z TAF UPDATE WILL
CONTAIN MORE DETAIL OF LATE DAY/NIGHT-TIME WINDS WHICH SHOULD
GUST IN EXCESS OF 20KTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN PENN. GUSTS
ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS - MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270534
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1234 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...IT WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...

LAST OF THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF MY FAR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONCERN IS
THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STUCK IN A LOW OVERCAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CHECK OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR
SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/03Z UPDATE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST
THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS.
VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT
TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE.

27/00Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY
SECTOR. TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE
PRODUCING LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW
COMPONENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM
WITH FZFG. FEEL A PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER
THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270534
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1234 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...IT WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...

LAST OF THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF MY FAR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONCERN IS
THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STUCK IN A LOW OVERCAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CHECK OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR
SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/03Z UPDATE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST
THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS.
VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT
TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE.

27/00Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY
SECTOR. TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE
PRODUCING LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW
COMPONENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM
WITH FZFG. FEEL A PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER
THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270439
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGE AT 10 PM WAS TO BRING MIN TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...GIVEN CLD COVER.

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 14 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 14 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/03Z UPDATE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST
THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS.
VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT
TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE.

27/00Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY
SECTOR. TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE
PRODUCING LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW
COMPONENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM
WITH FZFG. FEEL A PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER
THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270302
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGE AT 10 PM WAS TO BRING MIN TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...GIVEN CLD COVER.

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 14 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 14 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING OVER THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE
WITH MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR.
TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A
PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND
UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED
CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270302
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGE AT 10 PM WAS TO BRING MIN TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...GIVEN CLD COVER.

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 14 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 14 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING OVER THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE
WITH MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR.
TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A
PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND
UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED
CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FCST MIN TEMPS LATER THIS
EVENING.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 11 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 11 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING OVER THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE
WITH MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR.
TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A
PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND
UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED
CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FCST MIN TEMPS LATER THIS
EVENING.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 11 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 11 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING OVER THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE
WITH MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR.
TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A
PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND
UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED
CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 270048
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FCST MIN TEMPS LATER THIS
EVENING.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 11 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLING CO. HAD 11 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE SOME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270048
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FCST MIN TEMPS LATER THIS
EVENING.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 11 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLING CO. HAD 11 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE SOME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
UPDATED ZONES TO ADD IN DAY 7.

WILL CONTINUE CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...GIVEN TIME OF
DAY AND BUSY TRAVEL DAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING...STILL
GETTING SOME SMALL BANDS OF HEAIVER SNOW FORMING OVERHEAD.
OVERALL...STORM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE AREA SAW 2 TO
5 INCHES SO FAR...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE 6 TO 11 INCH RANGE.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
IS AN INTENSE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VA
ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD AND A
VERY POTENT 150+ KT JET WHO/S N/S AXIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TO AND WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 03Z THU. THOUGH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...ITS TRACK OFF THE NJ COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND /ALONG
WITH GENERAL RULE OF PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY WHEN STORMS
REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE/ WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OFF TO OUR NE...ESP AS UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH SLIDES
BY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY MIDNIGHT...TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW
WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU
AND THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW - THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S /ONLY
BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE SOME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AT 4PM...THE WORST OF THE SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...BUT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
1-2HRS IN THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LEWISTOWN TO WILLIAMSPORT. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THOUGH THESE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE
CANCELLED BY EARLY/MID EVENING.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
IS AN INTENSE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VA
ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD AND A
VERY POTENT 150+ KT JET WHO/S N/S AXIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TO AND WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 03Z THU. THOUGH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...ITS TRACK OFF THE NJ COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND /ALONG
WITH GENERAL RULE OF PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY WHEN STORMS
REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE/ WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OFF TO OUR NE...ESP AS UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH SLIDES
BY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SO...OUTSIDE OF A BAND IN EC PA THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE NEARLY
OVER AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY MIDNIGHT...TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW
WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU
AND THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW - THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S /ONLY
BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE SOME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AT 4PM...THE WORST OF THE SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...BUT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
1-2HRS IN THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LEWISTOWN TO WILLIAMSPORT. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THOUGH THESE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE
CANCELLED BY EARLY/MID EVENING.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
IS AN INTENSE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VA
ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD AND A
VERY POTENT 150+ KT JET WHO/S N/S AXIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TO AND WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 03Z THU. THOUGH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...ITS TRACK OFF THE NJ COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND /ALONG
WITH GENERAL RULE OF PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY WHEN STORMS
REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE/ WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OFF TO OUR NE...ESP AS UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH SLIDES
BY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SO...OUTSIDE OF A BAND IN EC PA THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE NEARLY
OVER AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY MIDNIGHT...TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW
WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU
AND THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW - THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S /ONLY
BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE SOME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262105
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AT 4PM...THE WORST OF THE SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...BUT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
1-2HRS IN THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LEWISTOWN TO WILLIAMSPORT. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THOUGH THESE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE
CANCELLED BY EARLY/MID EVENING.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
IS AN INTENSE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VA
ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD AND A
VERY POTENT 150+ KT JET WHO/S N/S AXIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TO AND WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 03Z THU. THOUGH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...ITS TRACK OFF THE NJ COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND /ALONG
WITH GENERAL RULE OF PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY WHEN STORMS
REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE/ WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OFF TO OUR NE...ESP AS UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH SLIDES
BY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SO...OUTSIDE OF A BAND IN EC PA THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE NEARLY
OVER AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY MIDNIGHT...TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW
WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU
AND THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW - THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S /ONLY
BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262105
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AT 4PM...THE WORST OF THE SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...BUT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
1-2HRS IN THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LEWISTOWN TO WILLIAMSPORT. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THOUGH THESE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE
CANCELLED BY EARLY/MID EVENING.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
IS AN INTENSE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VA
ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD AND A
VERY POTENT 150+ KT JET WHO/S N/S AXIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS PA TO AND WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 03Z THU. THOUGH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...ITS TRACK OFF THE NJ COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND /ALONG
WITH GENERAL RULE OF PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY WHEN STORMS
REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE/ WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OFF TO OUR NE...ESP AS UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH SLIDES
BY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SO...OUTSIDE OF A BAND IN EC PA THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE NEARLY
OVER AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY MIDNIGHT...TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW
WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU
AND THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW - THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S /ONLY
BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER





000
FXUS61 KCTP 262014
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 10AM /15Z/...CENTER OF DEEPENING STORM NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NC.
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH TAKING IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND
THEN JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY 18Z...AND LEANING A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD OFF THE NJ COASTLINE AT 00Z THU.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE DEEPENING
AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON A STRONG
NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

STRONG UPPER JET /300MB SPEEDS >150KTS/ SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOWS ONGOING...WITH
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS WELL. MODELS SHOW STRONG
LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION...WITH
THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP DID START OUT AS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LOWER
SUSQ BEFORE QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING BROUGHT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY MID MORNING. ON THE NW EDGE OF PRECIP BAND...HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOPED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR RECEIVING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS.

ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THAT BAND WILL BE THE WESTERN EXTEND OF
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW SHIFTING
E/NE. THOUGH SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST...RAPID ACCUM RATES LIKE WE/VE SEEN OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
/1-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ WILL DROP OFF NOTICEABLY. FOCUS FOR
HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE EASTERN HALF OF CWA...ESP
IN THE CORRIDOR THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FORECAST LEADING UP
TO THE EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 9-10 INCHES STILL
LOOKS REALISTIC...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW AND SE OF THAT
BAND /IN PLACES LIKE STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG METRO/.

ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN
OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE STORM.

TEMPS TODAY HAVE/WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP BEGINS..THEN STAY
PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL PA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING
ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE.
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES
UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 10AM /15Z/...CENTER OF DEEPENING STORM NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NC.
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH TAKING IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND
THEN JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY 18Z...AND LEANING A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD OFF THE NJ COASTLINE AT 00Z THU.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE DEEPENING
AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON A STRONG
NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

STRONG UPPER JET /300MB SPEEDS >150KTS/ SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOWS ONGOING...WITH
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS WELL. MODELS SHOW STRONG
LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION...WITH
THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP DID START OUT AS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LOWER
SUSQ BEFORE QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING BROUGHT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY MID MORNING. ON THE NW EDGE OF PRECIP BAND...HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOPED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR RECEIVING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS.

ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THAT BAND WILL BE THE WESTERN EXTEND OF
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW SHIFTING
E/NE. THOUGH SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST...RAPID ACCUM RATES LIKE WE/VE SEEN OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
/1-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ WILL DROP OFF NOTICABLY. FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OVER NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE EASTERN HALF OF CWA...ESP IN THE
CORRIDOR THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FORECAST LEADING UP TO THE
EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 9-10 INCHES STILL LOOKS
REALISTIC...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW AND SE OF THAT BAND /IN
PLACES LIKE STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG METRO/.

ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN
OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE STORM.

TEMPS TODAY HAVE/WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP BEGINS..THEN STAY
PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS RAIN BANDS MOVE IN...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW HAS BEGUN AT JST AND AOO AND HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO
IFR AND THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL DECREASE AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR COND THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW DECREASES
TONIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES
UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 10AM /15Z/...CENTER OF DEEPENING STORM NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NC.
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH TAKING IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND
THEN JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY 18Z...AND LEANING A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD OFF THE NJ COASTLINE AT 00Z THU.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE DEEPENING
AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON A STRONG
NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

STRONG UPPER JET /300MB SPEEDS >150KTS/ SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOWS ONGOING...WITH
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS WELL. MODELS SHOW STRONG
LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION...WITH
THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP DID START OUT AS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LOWER
SUSQ BEFORE QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING BROUGHT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY MID MORNING. ON THE NW EDGE OF PRECIP BAND...HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOPED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR RECEIVING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS.

ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THAT BAND WILL BE THE WESTERN EXTEND OF
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW SHIFTING
E/NE. THOUGH SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST...RAPID ACCUM RATES LIKE WE/VE SEEN OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
/1-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ WILL DROP OFF NOTICABLY. FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OVER NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE EASTERN HALF OF CWA...ESP IN THE
CORRIDOR THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FORECAST LEADING UP TO THE
EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 9-10 INCHES STILL LOOKS
REALISTIC...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW AND SE OF THAT BAND /IN
PLACES LIKE STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG METRO/.

ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN
OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE STORM.

TEMPS TODAY HAVE/WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP BEGINS..THEN STAY
PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS RAIN BANDS MOVE IN...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW HAS BEGUN AT JST AND AOO AND HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO
IFR AND THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL DECREASE AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR COND THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW DECREASES
TONIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 6 AM...THE STORM IS JUST WEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK UP
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER OR WEST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN US ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON
A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND ENHANCING UNDER THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES-EASTERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION SLIDING UP AND OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP HAS REACHED MY SOUTHERN ZONES...SO FAR IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. A DELAYED CHANGEOVER AND
MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE STILL EXPECT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND A MISERABLE DAY FOR
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM SNOW FALL GRAPHICS AND POSTED THEM
TO THE WEB AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE STILL EXPECT AN EARLY SEASON
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE POCONOS. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALWAYS HARD TO PINPOINT AND
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONSENSUS TAKES
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE ENSEMBLES POINTING THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MORE INTO CENTRAL PA TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HOW FAR BACK TO
BRING WARNING SNOWS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE THE SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.

TIMING SUGGESTS A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP
WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE
WORST OF THE STORM.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP
BEGINS..THEN STAY PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS RAIN BANDS MOVE IN...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW HAS BEGUN AT JST AND AOO AND HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO
IFR AND THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL DECREASE AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR COND THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW DECREASES
TONIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 6 AM...THE STORM IS JUST WEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK UP
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER OR WEST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN US ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON
A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND ENHANCING UNDER THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES-EASTERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION SLIDING UP AND OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP HAS REACHED MY SOUTHERN ZONES...SO FAR IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. A DELAYED CHANGEOVER AND
MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE STILL EXPECT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND A MISERABLE DAY FOR
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM SNOW FALL GRAPHICS AND POSTED THEM
TO THE WEB AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE STILL EXPECT AN EARLY SEASON
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE POCONOS. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALWAYS HARD TO PINPOINT AND
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONSENSUS TAKES
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE ENSEMBLES POINTING THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MORE INTO CENTRAL PA TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HOW FAR BACK TO
BRING WARNING SNOWS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE THE SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.

TIMING SUGGESTS A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP
WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE
WORST OF THE STORM.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP
BEGINS..THEN STAY PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS RAIN BANDS MOVE IN...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW HAS BEGUN AT JST AND AOO AND HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO
IFR AND THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL DECREASE AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR COND THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW DECREASES
TONIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261112
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 6 AM...THE STORM IS JUST WEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK UP
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER OR WEST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN US ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON
A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND ENHANCING UNDER THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES-EASTERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION SLIDING UP AND OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP HAS REACHED MY SOUTHERN ZONES...SO FAR IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. A DELAYED CHANGEOVER AND
MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE STILL EXPECT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND A MISERABLE DAY FOR
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM SNOW FALL GRAPHICS AND POSTED THEM
TO THE WEB AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE STILL EXPECT AN EARLY SEASON
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE POCONOS. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALWAYS HARD TO PINPOINT AND
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONSENSUS TAKES
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE ENSEMBLES POINTING THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MORE INTO CENTRAL PA TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HOW FAR BACK TO
BRING WARNING SNOWS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE THE SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.

TIMING SUGGESTS A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP
WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE
WORST OF THE STORM.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP
BEGINS..THEN STAY PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 261112
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
612 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 6 AM...THE STORM IS JUST WEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK UP
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER OR WEST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN US ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON
A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND ENHANCING UNDER THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES-EASTERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION SLIDING UP AND OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP HAS REACHED MY SOUTHERN ZONES...SO FAR IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. A DELAYED CHANGEOVER AND
MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE STILL EXPECT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND A MISERABLE DAY FOR
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM SNOW FALL GRAPHICS AND POSTED THEM
TO THE WEB AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE STILL EXPECT AN EARLY SEASON
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE POCONOS. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALWAYS HARD TO PINPOINT AND
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONSENSUS TAKES
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE ENSEMBLES POINTING THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MORE INTO CENTRAL PA TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HOW FAR BACK TO
BRING WARNING SNOWS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE THE SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.

TIMING SUGGESTS A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP
WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE
WORST OF THE STORM.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP
BEGINS..THEN STAY PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
451 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 4 AM...THE STORM IS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILLIAMSBURG
SOUTH CAROLINA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM
TRACK UP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER OR WEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN US ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON
A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND ENHANCING UNDER THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES-EASTERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION SLIDING UP AND OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP IS BREAKING OUT FROM NRN VIRGINIA EAST INTO SRN NEW
JERSEY...AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
TEMPS START OUT MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AT THE ONSET OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICK EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. A DELAYED
CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BUT
WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND A
MISERABLE DAY FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM SNOW FALL GRAPHICS AND POSTED THEM
TO THE WEB AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE STILL EXPECT AN EARLY SEASON
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE POCONOS. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALWAYS HARD TO PINPOINT AND
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONSENSUS TAKES
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE ENSEMBLES POINTING THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MORE INTO CENTRAL PA TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HOW FAR BACK TO
BRING WARNING SNOWS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE THE SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.

TIMING SUGGESTS A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP
WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE
WORST OF THE STORM.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP
BEGINS..THEN STAY PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
451 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 4 AM...THE STORM IS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILLIAMSBURG
SOUTH CAROLINA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM
TRACK UP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER OR WEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN US ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON
A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND ENHANCING UNDER THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES-EASTERN CANADA. MODELS SHOW STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION SLIDING UP AND OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP IS BREAKING OUT FROM NRN VIRGINIA EAST INTO SRN NEW
JERSEY...AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
TEMPS START OUT MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AT THE ONSET OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICK EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. A DELAYED
CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BUT
WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND A
MISERABLE DAY FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM SNOW FALL GRAPHICS AND POSTED THEM
TO THE WEB AND OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE STILL EXPECT AN EARLY SEASON
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE POCONOS. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALWAYS HARD TO PINPOINT AND
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONSENSUS TAKES
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE ENSEMBLES POINTING THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MORE INTO CENTRAL PA TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HOW FAR BACK TO
BRING WARNING SNOWS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE THE SEASON`S FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.

TIMING SUGGESTS A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP
WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE
WORST OF THE STORM.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY AND WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP
BEGINS..THEN STAY PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260728 AAD
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MESO ANAL AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS THE LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE GA COAST.
MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING THE STORM UP ALONG THEN OFF THE NJ COAST
BY 100 MILES OR SO. THIS SHOULD ASSURE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WITH SIG ACCUMS ALL THE WAY
BACK INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE. INITIAL THOUGHTS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE ARE THAT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER OUR VERY SERN COUNTIES WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX
COULD LAST A WHILE. HOWEVER I WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING
CONFIGURATION DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE HEAVY HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

FROM EARLIER...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260728 AAD
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MESO ANAL AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS THE LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE GA COAST.
MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING THE STORM UP ALONG THEN OFF THE NJ COAST
BY 100 MILES OR SO. THIS SHOULD ASSURE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WITH SIG ACCUMS ALL THE WAY
BACK INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE. INITIAL THOUGHTS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE ARE THAT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER OUR VERY SERN COUNTIES WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX
COULD LAST A WHILE. HOWEVER I WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING
CONFIGURATION DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE HEAVY HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

FROM EARLIER...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260554
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1254 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

MESO ANAL AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS THE LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE GA COAST.
MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING THE STORM UP ALONG THEN OFF THE NJ COAST
BY 100 MILES OR SO. THIS SHOULD ASSURE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WITH SIG ACCUMS ALL THE WAY
BACK INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE. INITIAL THOUGHTS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE ARE THAT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER OUR VERY SERN COUNTIES WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX
COULD LAST A WHILE. HOWEVER I WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING
CONFIGURATION DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE HEAVY HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

FROM EARLIER...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/03Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ONSET OF PCPN. PROJECTED ONSET
MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR FAVORING THE 12-15Z WINDOW
ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS. MDL SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE
STILL SHOW RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-TO-SNOW OVER THE
SE TERMINALS WITH ALL SNOW PTYPES EXPANDING NWD TO FIG-IPT LINE BY
15Z. FINALLY...BFD REMAINS ON EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO WRN NY.

26/00Z...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260554
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1254 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

MESO ANAL AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS THE LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE GA COAST.
MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING THE STORM UP ALONG THEN OFF THE NJ COAST
BY 100 MILES OR SO. THIS SHOULD ASSURE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WITH SIG ACCUMS ALL THE WAY
BACK INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE. INITIAL THOUGHTS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE ARE THAT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER OUR VERY SERN COUNTIES WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX
COULD LAST A WHILE. HOWEVER I WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING
CONFIGURATION DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE HEAVY HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

FROM EARLIER...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/03Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ONSET OF PCPN. PROJECTED ONSET
MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR FAVORING THE 12-15Z WINDOW
ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS. MDL SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE
STILL SHOW RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-TO-SNOW OVER THE
SE TERMINALS WITH ALL SNOW PTYPES EXPANDING NWD TO FIG-IPT LINE BY
15Z. FINALLY...BFD REMAINS ON EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO WRN NY.

26/00Z...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260449
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/03Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ONSET OF PCPN. PROJECTED ONSET
MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR FAVORING THE 12-15Z WINDOW
ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS. MDL SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE
STILL SHOW RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-TO-SNOW OVER THE
SE TERMINALS WITH ALL SNOW PTYPES EXPANDING NWD TO FIG-IPT LINE BY
15Z. FINALLY...BFD REMAINS ON EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO WRN NY.

26/00Z...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260449
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
26/03Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ONSET OF PCPN. PROJECTED ONSET
MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR FAVORING THE 12-15Z WINDOW
ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS. MDL SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE
STILL SHOW RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-TO-SNOW OVER THE
SE TERMINALS WITH ALL SNOW PTYPES EXPANDING NWD TO FIG-IPT LINE BY
15Z. FINALLY...BFD REMAINS ON EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO WRN NY.

26/00Z...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH WED NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE
MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR WITH FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY
WED NGT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 260245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER BUILDING EASTWARD THROUG THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO. STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE
ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THICKENING
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN MOST PLACES AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

STAGE IS SET FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL MAP
THIS EVENING FOR QUICKER EXIT OF SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND SLIGHTLY LESSER QPF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARNINGS.
HRW-ARW SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS OVER BY 21Z...EVEN
ACROSS THE EAST...AND IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OUT OF MY CWA WED AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION...AS OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO FASTER...BUT
MAINTAINED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WED
NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED
VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH
FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY WED NGT. LOW
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260020
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO LAKE ONTARIO.
STRATUS IS PACKED AGAINST THE ALLEGHENIES OVER NORTHWEST PA...
WITH A SWATCH OF CLEARING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHICH WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS.

WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. MINS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN ENOUGH TO LEVEL
THINGS OFF.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS/GEFS
HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WHILE THE EC LOOKED TO TAKE JUST A SLIGHT
LEAN EASTWARD...WITH THE RESULT NOW BEING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON
LIKELY SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WED
NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED
VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH
FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY WED NGT. LOW
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252334
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
634 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHILE STRATOCU PERSIST OVER NW MTNS BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY FOR LATE
NOVEMBER IN CENTRAL PA AS TEMPS PEAKED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /THOUGH NOTABLY COOLER THAN MON/...WITH A BREEZY W/SW WIND.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LIMITED CLOUDS EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SLIP INTO THE 20S BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OVER PAST 24H...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA BEING BORN ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WHILE THE
EC LOOKED TO TAKE JUST A SLIGHT LEAN EASTWARD...WITH THE RESULT
NOW BEING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON LIKELY SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO TRACK ALONG THEN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WED
NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED
VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH
FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY WED NGT. LOW
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL





000
FXUS61 KCTP 252334
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
634 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHILE STRATOCU PERSIST OVER NW MTNS BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY FOR LATE
NOVEMBER IN CENTRAL PA AS TEMPS PEAKED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /THOUGH NOTABLY COOLER THAN MON/...WITH A BREEZY W/SW WIND.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LIMITED CLOUDS EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SLIP INTO THE 20S BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OVER PAST 24H...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA BEING BORN ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WHILE THE
EC LOOKED TO TAKE JUST A SLIGHT LEAN EASTWARD...WITH THE RESULT
NOW BEING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON LIKELY SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO TRACK ALONG THEN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NWD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH WED
NGT. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AIRSPACE. PCPN WILL LKLY BEGIN AS A MIX IN THE MDT/LNS AREA BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED
VSBYS WILL BE OVER THE SERN AIRSPACE WITH RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH
FLGT CATS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDS DUSK-DAWN BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE BY WED NGT. LOW
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252125
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RECEDE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO FORM OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE UP ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHILE STRATOCU PERSIST OVER NW MTNS BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY FOR LATE
NOVEMBER IN CENTRAL PA AS TEMPS PEAKED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /THOUGH NOTABLY COOLER THAN MON/...WITH A BREEZY W/SW WIND.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LIMITED CLOUDS EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SLIP INTO THE 20S BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OVER PAST 24H...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA BEING BORN ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WHILE THE
EC LOOKED TO TAKE JUST A SLIGHT LEAN EASTWARD...WITH THE RESULT
NOW BEING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON LIKELY SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO TRACK ALONG THEN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW LOWER CLDS OVER THE NW AND FAR WEST...BUT MOST AREAS
JUST SOME HI AND MID CLDS. BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANYWAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON A STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT
NE ON WED. SNOW WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY GO DOWNHILL. SNOW COULD START
AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE...BEFORE TEMPS COOL DOWN. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...AS THE
STORM MOVES AWAY. NOT SEEING MUCH COLD AIR OR WIND BEHIND
THE STORM.

RAPID WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD
LIMIT LOWER CLDS. NEXT COLD FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS OR JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A SHOWER ALONG STALLED FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252125
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RECEDE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO FORM OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE UP ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHILE STRATOCU PERSIST OVER NW MTNS BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY FOR LATE
NOVEMBER IN CENTRAL PA AS TEMPS PEAKED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL /THOUGH NOTABLY COOLER THAN MON/...WITH A BREEZY W/SW WIND.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LIMITED CLOUDS EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SLIP INTO THE 20S BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OVER PAST 24H...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA BEING BORN ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED WESTWARD WHILE THE
EC LOOKED TO TAKE JUST A SLIGHT LEAN EASTWARD...WITH THE RESULT
NOW BEING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON LIKELY SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO TRACK ALONG THEN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES QUICKLY AFTER 08Z...WITH QPF APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH BY 12Z. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
STARTING OVER SOUTHERN /ESPECIALLY SE/ AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. SIMPLY...PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z WED TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU...
BRINGING BIGGEST IMPACTS TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY WED.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE STORM TRACK WITH GFS COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH THE QPF
SHIELD A BIT FURTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING IN THE SOUTH BY
SUNRISE...AND SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE SE AS
COLUMN COOLS. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST INTENSITY PRECIP WILL BE WED
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SNOW RATES COULD BE 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE WARNING AREA. LATEST WWD GRAPHICS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR SIG SNOWS UP INTO CENTRAL/NW PA NOT AS HIGH
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY IN THE
ENSEMBLES...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY
SHARPEN GRADIENT OF SNOW. BUT FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND
IMPACTS ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WE STRUNG AN
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY LATE WED AFT/WED EVE AS STORM
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO A NW FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKES...WITH LIGHT SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSS BY THU MORNING
IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT INTO AN
EXTENSIVE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE THEN FORECAST TO
RISE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE CABOOSE IN THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TRAIN EXITS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND ENERGY APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST CLOSES OFF AND BUILDS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S.

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CABOOSE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE MAY
ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS PUSH OF ENERGY/COLD AIR
SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE
OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
MAKE THIS COLD SHOT TEMPORARY WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A
RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW LOWER CLDS OVER THE NW AND FAR WEST...BUT MOST AREAS
JUST SOME HI AND MID CLDS. BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANYWAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON A STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT
NE ON WED. SNOW WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY GO DOWNHILL. SNOW COULD START
AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE...BEFORE TEMPS COOL DOWN. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...AS THE
STORM MOVES AWAY. NOT SEEING MUCH COLD AIR OR WIND BEHIND
THE STORM.

RAPID WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD
LIMIT LOWER CLDS. NEXT COLD FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS OR JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A SHOWER ALONG STALLED FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251738
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. COLD AIR STRATOCU WORKING INTO THE NW MTNS...WITH SCT
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM KJST-KUNV-KIPT. TRICKIER CLOUD FORECAST
IN THE SE WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD IN FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT TRICK IS THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUDS. APPEARS THAT
THEY WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH IN MOST PLACES TO KEEP PARTLY SUNNY
WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND KBFD
ALREADY PUSHING TO TODAYS FCST HIGHS...SO BUMPED THE NW MTNS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. SE LOOKS BASICALLY
ON TARGET WITH MILD HIGHS PEAKING MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT
I EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW LOWER CLDS OVER THE NW AND FAR WEST...BUT MOST AREAS
JUST SOME HI AND MID CLDS. BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANYWAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON A STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT
NE ON WED. SNOW WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY GO DOWNHILL. SNOW COULD START
AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE...BEFORE TEMPS COOL DOWN. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...AS THE
STORM MOVES AWAY. NOT SEEING MUCH COLD AIR OR WIND BEHIND
THE STORM.

RAPID WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD
LIMIT LOWER CLDS. NEXT COLD FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS OR JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A SHOWER ALONG STALLED FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. COLD AIR STRATOCU WORKING INTO THE NW MTNS...WITH SCT
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM KJST-KUNV-KIPT. TRICKIER CLOUD FORECAST IN
THE SE WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD IN FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT TRICK IS THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUDS. APPEARS THAT THEY
WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH IN MOST PLACES TO KEEP PARTLY SUNNY
WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND KBFD
ALREADY PUSHING TO TODAYS FCST HIGHS...SO BUMPED THE NW MTNS UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. SE LOOKS BASICALLY ON
TARGET WITH MILD HIGHS PEAKING MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT
I EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHEN I DID THE 18Z TAFS YESTERDAY...WAS CONCERN ABOUT LOWER
SC INTO BFD. BEEN SOME IN BFD THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THEY
ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE. DID HAVE SOME AT JST.

CENTRAL AREAS HAVE BKN250...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
HAVE A THICKER CI DECK.

WILL ADJUST 15Z TAFS AS NEEDED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING
MDT AND LNS BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. A SMALL
BAND OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ON THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL...BUT
SWITCH QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. IFR RESRECTIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD...WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
CREEPS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. COLD AIR STRATOCU WORKING INTO THE NW MTNS...WITH SCT
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM KJST-KUNV-KIPT. TRICKIER CLOUD FORECAST IN
THE SE WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD IN FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT TRICK IS THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUDS. APPEARS THAT THEY
WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH IN MOST PLACES TO KEEP PARTLY SUNNY
WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND KBFD
ALREADY PUSHING TO TODAYS FCST HIGHS...SO BUMPED THE NW MTNS UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. SE LOOKS BASICALLY ON
TARGET WITH MILD HIGHS PEAKING MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT
I EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHEN I DID THE 18Z TAFS YESTERDAY...WAS CONCERN ABOUT LOWER
SC INTO BFD. BEEN SOME IN BFD THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THEY
ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE. DID HAVE SOME AT JST.

CENTRAL AREAS HAVE BKN250...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
HAVE A THICKER CI DECK.

WILL ADJUST 15Z TAFS AS NEEDED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING
MDT AND LNS BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. A SMALL
BAND OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ON THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL...BUT
SWITCH QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. IFR RESRECTIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD...WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
CREEPS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251505
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT
I EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHEN I DID THE 18Z TAFS YESTERDAY...WAS CONCERN ABOUT LOWER
SC INTO BFD. BEEN SOME IN BFD THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THEY
ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE. DID HAVE SOME AT JST.

CENTRAL AREAS HAVE BKN250...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
HAVE A THICKER CI DECK.

WILL ADJUST 15Z TAFS AS NEEDED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING
MDT AND LNS BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. A SMALL
BAND OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ON THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL...BUT
SWITCH QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. IFR RESRECTIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD...WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
CREEPS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT I
EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TODAY...AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SOLE EXCEPTION IS KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR
MVFR CIGS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING
MDT AND LNS BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. A SMALL
BAND OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ON THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL...BUT
SWITCH QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. IFR RESRECTIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD...WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
CREEPS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT I
EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TODAY...AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SOLE EXCEPTION IS KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR
MVFR CIGS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING
MDT AND LNS BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. A SMALL
BAND OF RAIN COULD OCCUR ON THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL...BUT
SWITCH QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. IFR RESRECTIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BFD...WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
CREEPS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 251138
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT I
EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE RETURNED DUE TO THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AT UNV...BFD SHOULD CONTINUE . CAN/T RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251138
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWS SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE
OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT I
EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE RETURNED DUE TO THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AT UNV...BFD SHOULD CONTINUE . CAN/T RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250948
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
448 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SATELLITE SHOWS A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE OVER THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT I
EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE RETURNED DUE TO THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AT UNV...BFD SHOULD CONTINUE . CAN/T RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250948
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
448 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVE UP
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SATELLITE SHOWS A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS RACING NE OVER THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT PRECIP IS
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. I WENT FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS
WE STAY UNDER A FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COLD AIR TO FILTER IN TODAY...SO
MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF MY FCST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE THE NW WILL BE COOLER IN THE
30S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP A NEW STORM ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM ALOFT TAKES ON A NEG TILT AS
IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MADE TO
TRACK ALONG THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. TIMING
SUGGESTS PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP STARTING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NJ
COAST BY WED EVENING. THE TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE MY
EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE EVEN BACK INTO THE LAURELS. AS A RESULT I
EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL ON A
WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY TRAVELED DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

LATEST WWD GRAPHICS SHOW A SWATH OF 6-8 SNOWS OVER THE SERN 1/3
OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN
THE SREF THREAT PAGE THAT SHOWS A SIMILAR ORIENTATION OF WARNING
SNOWS FROM THE NRN PART OF THE STATE INTO MY SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NUDGING SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. I USED A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF WHICH FAVORS SERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS PREFERABLE FOR LOCAL SNOW CROWS. I
TRIED TO SIMILARLY PAINT THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING SNOWS OVER
THIS SERN 1/3 OR SO BACK INTO THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE SREF THREAT
PAGE AND WWD FORECAST. I`M NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SIG SNOWS UP
INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALY IN THE ENSEMBLES...BUT FOR IMPACTS I CAN SEE AN ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION SEES LITTLE OR NO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ALL.

A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE NEXT COLD SHOT TEMPORARY
WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A RETURN BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLER AIR APPROACHES AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE RETURNED DUE TO THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AT UNV...BFD SHOULD CONTINUE . CAN/T RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250636
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SERN PORTION OF MY
CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT. THE LARGER PICTURE SHOWS A SHIELD OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S STILL PRETTY GUSTY FOR THIS HOUR OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT SO THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO ABATE.

FROM EARLIER...

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS
THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW
TEMPS OF 30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPENING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE RETURNED DUE TO THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AT UNV...BFD SHOULD CONTINUE . CAN/T RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250636
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SERN PORTION OF MY
CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT. THE LARGER PICTURE SHOWS A SHIELD OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S STILL PRETTY GUSTY FOR THIS HOUR OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT SO THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO ABATE.

FROM EARLIER...

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS
THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW
TEMPS OF 30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPENING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE RETURNED DUE TO THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AT UNV...BFD SHOULD CONTINUE . CAN/T RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COULD CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250526
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SERN PORTION OF MY
CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT. THE LARGER PICTURE SHOWS A SHIELD OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S STILL PRETTY GUSTY FOR THIS HOUR OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT SO THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO ABATE.

FROM EARLIER...

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS
THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW
TEMPS OF 30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPENING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS OF EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS LOW PRES
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATL LOOP SHOWS
STRATOCU APPROACHING NW PA AT 03Z. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AM. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250526
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SERN PORTION OF MY
CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT. THE LARGER PICTURE SHOWS A SHIELD OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

IT`S STILL PRETTY GUSTY FOR THIS HOUR OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT SO THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO ABATE.

FROM EARLIER...

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS
THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW
TEMPS OF 30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPENING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS OF EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS LOW PRES
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATL LOOP SHOWS
STRATOCU APPROACHING NW PA AT 03Z. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AM. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250354
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ REGION BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU /AND PATCHES
OF CIRRUS SPREADING NE/ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 0330Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL STILL BE COMMON FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURGE OF DEEPER AND MUCH COLDER
LAGS THE CFROPA BY 2-3 HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND DOWN WIND OF ANY GAPS/ ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PENN.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE
50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF
30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS OF EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS LOW PRES
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATL LOOP SHOWS
STRATOCU APPROACHING NW PA AT 03Z. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AM. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250354
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ REGION BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU /AND PATCHES
OF CIRRUS SPREADING NE/ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 0330Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL STILL BE COMMON FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURGE OF DEEPER AND MUCH COLDER
LAGS THE CFROPA BY 2-3 HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND DOWN WIND OF ANY GAPS/ ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PENN.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE
50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF
30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS OF EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS LOW PRES
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATL LOOP SHOWS
STRATOCU APPROACHING NW PA AT 03Z. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AM. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250354
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ REGION BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU /AND PATCHES
OF CIRRUS SPREADING NE/ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 0330Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL STILL BE COMMON FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURGE OF DEEPER AND MUCH COLDER
LAGS THE CFROPA BY 2-3 HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND DOWN WIND OF ANY GAPS/ ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PENN.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE
50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF
30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS OF EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS LOW PRES
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATL LOOP SHOWS
STRATOCU APPROACHING NW PA AT 03Z. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AM. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250354
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ REGION BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU /AND PATCHES
OF CIRRUS SPREADING NE/ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 0330Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL STILL BE COMMON FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURGE OF DEEPER AND MUCH COLDER
LAGS THE CFROPA BY 2-3 HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND DOWN WIND OF ANY GAPS/ ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PENN.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE
50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF
30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS OF EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS LOW PRES
OVR SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATL LOOP SHOWS
STRATOCU APPROACHING NW PA AT 03Z. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AM. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS NOT MAKING A CONVINCING CASE FOR IT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ REGION BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU /AND PATCHES
OF CIRRUS SPREADING NE/ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 0330Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL STILL BE COMMON FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURGE OF DEEPER AND MUCH COLDER
LAGS THE CFROPA BY 2-3 HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND DOWN WIND OF ANY GAPS/ ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PENN.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE
50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF
30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
KBFD AT 23Z AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER
WGUSTS...DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS.
RADAR LOOP AT 23Z SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS
ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
SURVIVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 250346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WEST BRANCH COMMUNITIES OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ REGION BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU /AND PATCHES
OF CIRRUS SPREADING NE/ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 0330Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL STILL BE COMMON FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURGE OF DEEPER AND MUCH COLDER
LAGS THE CFROPA BY 2-3 HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND DOWN WIND OF ANY GAPS/ ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PENN.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF WRN PENN/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE
50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS-ALL BLEND INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF
30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
KBFD AT 23Z AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER
WGUSTS...DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS.
RADAR LOOP AT 23Z SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS
ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
SURVIVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250134
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
834 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE COLLEGE AND ALTOONA AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ATTM. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL BE COMMON.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
WRN PENN AT 01Z/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO
DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS ALL BLEND
INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF 30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
KBFD AT 23Z AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER
WGUSTS...DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS.
RADAR LOOP AT 23Z SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS
ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
SURVIVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250134
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
834 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE COLLEGE AND ALTOONA AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF ALTO CU ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ATTM. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR.

TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT...GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WSW WILL BE COMMON.

FAIRLY STRONG SFC-850 MB CAA /CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
WRN PENN AT 01Z/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO
DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS ALL BLEND
INDICATES LOW TEMPS OF 30-32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE /BUT QUITE SHALLOW/
DECK OF STRATO CU WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS BETWEEN 04-06Z
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE
SCT-OCNLY BKN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
KBFD AT 23Z AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER
WGUSTS...DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS.
RADAR LOOP AT 23Z SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS
ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
SURVIVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242338
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
KBFD AT 23Z AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER WGUSTS...DESPITE
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS. RADAR LOOP AT 23Z
SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS ASSOC WITH A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT SURVIVE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242338
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
KBFD AT 23Z AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS IN THIS
RANGE COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER WGUSTS...DESPITE
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS. RADAR LOOP AT 23Z
SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS ASSOC WITH A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT SURVIVE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD
CONCEIVABLY SUPPORT OCNL MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS SOUTHEAST HALF OF PA.

THU...AM FOG POSS SOUTH. EVENING -SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
546 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF KBFD AT 22Z. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS
TO NEAR 30KTS COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER
WGUSTS...DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS.
RADAR LOOP AT 22Z SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS
ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
SURVIVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OCNL MVFR CIGS COULD
OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
546 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS CAUSED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SOUTH OF LOW PRES OVR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS STILL NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF KBFD AT 22Z. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OCNL GUSTS
TO NEAR 30KTS COULD STILL BUFFET THE AREA ARND KBFD THRU MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWER
WGUSTS...DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10KTS.
RADAR LOOP AT 22Z SHOWS A FEW DWINDLING SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MTNS
ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
SURVIVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS HOLDING THRU TUESDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WORK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY POSS EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBFD...WHERE OCNL MVFR CIGS COULD
OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 242144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

FOCUS IN LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SIG IMPACTS FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPEING AND SLIDING UP THE EAST
COAST ON WED.

TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL SWING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BORN OVER FLORIDA ON TUES.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...PASSING BY THE NJ COAST BY 00Z THU AS A STILL DEEPENING
998MB LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFT
OF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
STOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THE
GFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ON
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AS STORM APPROACHES. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY MODEL...BUT A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED TO
ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING
SURFACE LOW. AIR MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT ONSET IN FAR SE COUNTIES TO
BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. BUT COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF A KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE
THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT /ON THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR/ TO ISSUE
A WATCH FOR SE HALF OF CWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY
WED. BUT AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD
TO MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN FLUID...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR /WED/.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY STARTING THIS WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS AND THEN BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN 2/3 OF
U.S. WE COULD BE BRUSHED BY A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL BIG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH KCLE AND ALMOST TO WRN PA. GUSTS ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ARE UP TO 40KTS
AND EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS THE SHOWERS
PASS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVY AS IS. IT MAY BE
CHOPPED EARLIER THAN CURR EXP TIME AS DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP.
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO RECORD MAXES THIS AFTN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING AS
THE MIXING IS ALREADY PRETTY DEEP AND SUN ANGLE IS LOWERING. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT/2 AM...AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHSN IN THE NWRN
FEW COS. BUT OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY AS A MINOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
W/SW. CLOUDS AND SCT SHSN IN THE FAR NW WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY
COOL...AND THEY MAY NOT RISE AT ALL IN THE NW. BUT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THE SE WILL GET SOME
DOWNSLOPING. EVEN SO...DIURNAL RANGES OF 10F ARE ABOUT ALL THAT
THE SE WILL MANAGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241809
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS WILDLY ABONORMAL WITH VERY STRONG LLVL JET ALOFT BRINING IN
WARM AIR AND MIXING BRINING DOWN THE HIGH POTENTIAL AIR. SUNSHINE
AND MORE SUN-TIME TO GO...SO WE WILL LIKELY CRACK A RECORD MAX OR
TWO. GUSTS NOT INTO THE 30S CONSISTENTLY YET...AND WIND ADVY LOOKS
WEAK. ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 40 KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ONE OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL GRAZE
THE NRN TIER COULD MIX SOMETHING HIGHER DOWN. BUT...WHEN ANY GUSTS
DEAL WITH/HAPPEN IN/NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS...WE USE SVR/S TO
HANDLE THOSE.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. DRYING SRLY FLOW - DEWPOINTS INTO THE
30S ON THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WEST AND VALLEYS IN WRN PA SHOULD
KEEP SHRA TO A MINIMUM S OF I-80. TEMPS SHOULD DROP NICELY
OVERNIGHT...REACHING INTO THE L/M30S IN THE NW BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241809
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS WILDLY ABONORMAL WITH VERY STRONG LLVL JET ALOFT BRINING IN
WARM AIR AND MIXING BRINING DOWN THE HIGH POTENTIAL AIR. SUNSHINE
AND MORE SUN-TIME TO GO...SO WE WILL LIKELY CRACK A RECORD MAX OR
TWO. GUSTS NOT INTO THE 30S CONSISTENTLY YET...AND WIND ADVY LOOKS
WEAK. ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 40 KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ONE OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL GRAZE
THE NRN TIER COULD MIX SOMETHING HIGHER DOWN. BUT...WHEN ANY GUSTS
DEAL WITH/HAPPEN IN/NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS...WE USE SVR/S TO
HANDLE THOSE.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. DRYING SRLY FLOW - DEWPOINTS INTO THE
30S ON THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WEST AND VALLEYS IN WRN PA SHOULD
KEEP SHRA TO A MINIMUM S OF I-80. TEMPS SHOULD DROP NICELY
OVERNIGHT...REACHING INTO THE L/M30S IN THE NW BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

TOOK OUT LLWS.

MAIN CONCERN IS LINES OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...NO THUNDER AT THIS PT. NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THUS NOT
CONCERN ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT WEAKEN THEM TOO MUCH.
SHOULD THE WIND DIE AT SPOTS LIKE IPT...MDT...AND LNS...
THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUE AFT...GIVEN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIMITED COLD AIR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WED...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED...AS
A COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS WILDLY ABONORMAL WITH VERY STRONG LLVL JET ALOFT BRINING IN
WARM AIR AND MIXING BRINING DOWN THE HIGH POTENTIAL AIR. SUNSHINE
AND MORE SUN-TIME TO GO...SO WE WILL LIKELY CRACK A RECORD MAX OR
TWO. GUSTS NOT INTO THE 30S CONSISTENTLY YET...AND WIND ADVY LOOKS
WEAK. ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 40 KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ONE OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL GRAZE
THE NRN TIER COULD MIX SOMETHING HIGHER DOWN. BUT...WHEN ANY GUSTS
DEAL WITH/HAPPEN IN/NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS...WE USE SVR/S TO
HANDLE THOSE.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. DRYING SRLY FLOW - DEWPOINTS INTO THE
30S ON THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WEST AND VALLEYS IN WRN PA SHOULD
KEEP SHRA TO A MINIMUM S OF I-80. TEMPS SHOULD DROP NICELY
OVERNIGHT...REACHING INTO THE L/M30S IN THE NW BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE. WINDS STILL FROM THE SE TO S...THUS
LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VAD WINDS AT 3000 FT ABOUT 30
TO 40 KNOTS.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

15Z TAF PACKAGE SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS WILDLY ABONORMAL WITH VERY STRONG LLVL JET ALOFT BRINING IN
WARM AIR AND MIXING BRINING DOWN THE HIGH POTENTIAL AIR. SUNSHINE
AND MORE SUN-TIME TO GO...SO WE WILL LIKELY CRACK A RECORD MAX OR
TWO. GUSTS NOT INTO THE 30S CONSISTENTLY YET...AND WIND ADVY LOOKS
WEAK. ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 40 KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ONE OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL GRAZE
THE NRN TIER COULD MIX SOMETHING HIGHER DOWN. BUT...WHEN ANY GUSTS
DEAL WITH/HAPPEN IN/NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS...WE USE SVR/S TO
HANDLE THOSE.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. DRYING SRLY FLOW - DEWPOINTS INTO THE
30S ON THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WEST AND VALLEYS IN WRN PA SHOULD
KEEP SHRA TO A MINIMUM S OF I-80. TEMPS SHOULD DROP NICELY
OVERNIGHT...REACHING INTO THE L/M30S IN THE NW BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE. WINDS STILL FROM THE SE TO S...THUS
LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VAD WINDS AT 3000 FT ABOUT 30
TO 40 KNOTS.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

15Z TAF PACKAGE SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS WILDLY ABONORMAL WITH VERY STRONG LLVL JET ALOFT BRINING IN
WARM AIR AND MIXING BRINING DOWN THE HIGH POTENTIAL AIR. SUNSHINE
AND MORE SUN-TIME TO GO...SO WE WILL LIKELY CRACK A RECORD MAX OR
TWO. GUSTS NOT INTO THE 30S CONSISTENTLY YET...AND WIND ADVY LOOKS
WEAK. ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 40 KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ONE OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL GRAZE
THE NRN TIER COULD MIX SOMETHING HIGHER DOWN. BUT...WHEN ANY GUSTS
DEAL WITH/HAPPEN IN/NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS...WE USE SVR/S TO
HANDLE THOSE.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. DRYING SRLY FLOW - DEWPOINTS INTO THE
30S ON THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE WEST AND VALLEYS IN WRN PA SHOULD
KEEP SHRA TO A MINIMUM S OF I-80. TEMPS SHOULD DROP NICELY
OVERNIGHT...REACHING INTO THE L/M30S IN THE NW BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE. WINDS STILL FROM THE SE TO S...THUS
LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VAD WINDS AT 3000 FT ABOUT 30
TO 40 KNOTS.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

15Z TAF PACKAGE SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241536
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE FINGERLAKES. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS LONG SINCE TRACKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA ON THE
NOSE OF A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER
SHOWERS STILL TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL
AS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE. WINDS STILL FROM THE SE TO S...THUS
LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VAD WINDS AT 3000 FT ABOUT 30
TO 40 KNOTS.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

15Z TAF PACKAGE SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241536
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE FINGERLAKES. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS LONG SINCE TRACKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA ON THE
NOSE OF A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER
SHOWERS STILL TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL
AS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SYSTEM LIFTING NE. WINDS STILL FROM THE SE TO S...THUS
LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. VAD WINDS AT 3000 FT ABOUT 30
TO 40 KNOTS.

STRONGEST WIND FIELDS LIFT NE THIS AFT.

15Z TAF PACKAGE SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU/MARTIN





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE FINGERLAKES. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS LONG SINCE TRACKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA ON THE
NOSE OF A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER
SHOWERS STILL TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL
AS THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241123
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS STREAKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA AT THIS TIME ON THE NOSE OF
A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER SHOWERS STILL
TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL AS THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241123
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS STREAKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA AT THIS TIME ON THE NOSE OF
A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER SHOWERS STILL
TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL AS THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD WITH REGIONAL RADAR AT
11Z SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED. CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH JST AND AOO HAVE VFR DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHOF THE REGION AND THE VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS STREAKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA AT THIS TIME ON THE NOSE OF
A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER SHOWERS STILL
TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL AS THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE GRT LKS WILL
SPREAD LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. REGIONAL
RADAR AT 06Z SHOWS A DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ENTER SOUTHWEST PA.
THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS AND VSBYS TO INCREASE...AND SHOULD LIFT
RESTRICTIONS SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 1-2 KFT LAYER WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
OVERNIGHT...MAKING LLWS A NEAR CERTAINTY. SFC GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HIGHEST AT KJST DUE TO IT/S RIDGETOP LOCATION. HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 25-35KTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE UNTIL 09Z. MUCH
LIGHTER SFC WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
LLWS.

THE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
MODELED...WHICH MEANS THE  LOW CIGS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDS BY MID MONDAY AM...AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. GENERALLY VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE WEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT LATE
DAY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS STREAKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA AT THIS TIME ON THE NOSE OF
A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER SHOWERS STILL
TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL AS THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE GRT LKS WILL
SPREAD LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. REGIONAL
RADAR AT 06Z SHOWS A DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ENTER SOUTHWEST PA.
THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS AND VSBYS TO INCREASE...AND SHOULD LIFT
RESTRICTIONS SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 1-2 KFT LAYER WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
OVERNIGHT...MAKING LLWS A NEAR CERTAINTY. SFC GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HIGHEST AT KJST DUE TO IT/S RIDGETOP LOCATION. HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 25-35KTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE UNTIL 09Z. MUCH
LIGHTER SFC WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
LLWS.

THE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
MODELED...WHICH MEANS THE  LOW CIGS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDS BY MID MONDAY AM...AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. GENERALLY VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE WEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT LATE
DAY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities