Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KCTP 200839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CIRRUS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KEPT CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. THE CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN`T/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN`T/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200243
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200243
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 192340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191509
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. MORNING TEMPS WARMING NICELY WITH
SOUTHEAST AREAS ALREADY NEAR 60F (KTHV AND KMDT)...LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 50F OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH
STARTED OUT MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST VERY THIN BKN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191509
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. MORNING TEMPS WARMING NICELY WITH
SOUTHEAST AREAS ALREADY NEAR 60F (KTHV AND KMDT)...LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 50F OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH
STARTED OUT MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST VERY THIN BKN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY MIDDAY WHILE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY MIDDAY WHILE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190520
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

ALOT OF CIRRUS NEAR US TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
IT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

MANY ASOS SITES CANNOT SEE THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE QUITE
HIGH...THOUGH KCCX VWP PICKS UP TARGETS FROM NEAR SURFACETO 18 KFT
AT TIMES. STRONG 250HPA JET OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CIRRUS IN
ENTRANCE REGION...MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST...FOR US JUST
HIGH CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVELY
NICE DAY TEMEPATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS
SLOWLY GOING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH EVEN MORE SUN.

DON`T NEED AN ENSEMBLE WHEN IT`S PRETTY MUCH A BIG BUBBLE AND NO
TROUBLE IN EVERY MODEL ONE EXAMINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190520
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

ALOT OF CIRRUS NEAR US TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
IT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

MANY ASOS SITES CANNOT SEE THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE QUITE
HIGH...THOUGH KCCX VWP PICKS UP TARGETS FROM NEAR SURFACETO 18 KFT
AT TIMES. STRONG 250HPA JET OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CIRRUS IN
ENTRANCE REGION...MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST...FOR US JUST
HIGH CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVELY
NICE DAY TEMEPATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS
SLOWLY GOING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH EVEN MORE SUN.

DON`T NEED AN ENSEMBLE WHEN IT`S PRETTY MUCH A BIG BUBBLE AND NO
TROUBLE IN EVERY MODEL ONE EXAMINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HOW ABOUT THOSE MESO MDLS - POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES GETTING A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THESE WILL BE OVER JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED.
FRONT HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE WRN MTS...BUT HAS INCHED EASTWARD
THRU THE NRN MTS. FRONT LAYS OUT W-E THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE
ASSOCD MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STOP FALLING AROUND 40F IN LOTS OF
PLACES...BUT SOME - ESP THE COLDER VALLEYS - COULD GET INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HOW ABOUT THOSE MESO MDLS - POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES GETTING A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THESE WILL BE OVER JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED.
FRONT HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE WRN MTS...BUT HAS INCHED EASTWARD
THRU THE NRN MTS. FRONT LAYS OUT W-E THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE
ASSOCD MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STOP FALLING AROUND 40F IN LOTS OF
PLACES...BUT SOME - ESP THE COLDER VALLEYS - COULD GET INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 182340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182320
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 181956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A
SHOWER INTO THE FAR NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181834
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A
SHOWER INTO THE FAR NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 181834
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A
SHOWER INTO THE FAR NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181243
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
843 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MVFR STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AIRFIELDS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.
ELSEWHERE...JUST THIN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS VFR
CONDITIONS START THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS IN WESTERN TERRAIN UP TO 15 KTS.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A SHOWER INTO THE FAR NW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 181243
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
843 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MVFR STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AIRFIELDS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT.
ELSEWHERE...JUST THIN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AS VFR
CONDITIONS START THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS IN WESTERN TERRAIN UP TO 15 KTS.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A SHOWER INTO THE FAR NW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181219
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
819 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR STRATOCU WILL RESIDE OVER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELDS THIS MORNING...AND ULTIMATELY THIN BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERESPREAD THE AIRFIELDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WITH CIGS AOB 15K FEET. VEILED SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING TO
8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THE WIND WILL
SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A SHOWER INTO MY FAR NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 181219
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
819 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR STRATOCU WILL RESIDE OVER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELDS THIS MORNING...AND ULTIMATELY THIN BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERESPREAD THE AIRFIELDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WITH CIGS AOB 15K FEET. VEILED SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING TO
8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THE WIND WILL
SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPREAD A SHOWER INTO MY FAR NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE SURFACE AND 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST MOVES OVER OUR REGION. THE RESULT IS ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NOT A GOOD PATTERN FOR SIGNFICANT
RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES OTHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
WE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP DESPITE THE APPROACHING CLOUDS.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLYRAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LI SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG GHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE SURFACE AND 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST MOVES OVER OUR REGION. THE RESULT IS ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NOT A GOOD PATTERN FOR SIGNFICANT
RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES OTHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
WE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP DESPITE THE APPROACHING CLOUDS.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 180849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE SURFACE AND 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST MOVES OVER OUR REGION. THE RESULT IS ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NOT A GOOD PATTERN FOR SIGNFICANT
RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES OTHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
WE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP DESPITE THE APPROACHING CLOUDS.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE SURFACE AND 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST MOVES OVER OUR REGION. THE RESULT IS ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NOT A GOOD PATTERN FOR SIGNFICANT
RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES OTHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
WE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP DESPITE THE APPROACHING CLOUDS.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE SURFACE AND 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST MOVES OVER OUR REGION. THE RESULT IS ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NOT A GOOD PATTERN FOR SIGNFICANT
RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE SLOWLY RETREATING 1040HPA HIGH IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THUS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE LAYER HAVE MOVED ACROSS
LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES. THE LEADING EDGE IS NO INTO YORK
AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. THE WINDS DIED AND IT REMAINED CLEAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES OTHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
WE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP DESPITE THE APPROACHING CLOUDS.

AFTER A COLD START SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LEANED TOWARD A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN THE POPS WHICH INDICATED LATER AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE NY BORDER. LOWERED THE POPS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION. SREF IS TOO WET WITH LOW QPF SO LOWERED
VALUES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL IS IN THE NORTHWEST 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
ABOUT 7 PM. IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS IN PREVIOUS PERIOD USED
BLEND OF SREF AND NAM FOR FREQUENCY TO MAKE A POP.

THE WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ANTICYCLONE WILL USHER IN
SOME DRY AIR WITH -1 SIGMA PW ANOMALIES. THIS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
CLOUDS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE +3 TO
0C RANGE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 180620
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND APPEARED TO
HAMPER THE FROST ADVISORY BUT WE HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING AS THIS
FEATURE MOVED WEST AND NOW HAVE REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
34-37F RANGE THOUGH BIGGER CITIES STILL NEAR 40. SO WILL KEEP
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS SOME LOCATIONS NOW BELOW THE MAGIC 36F
SHELTER HEIGHT. WINDS HAVE LUFT A BIT TOO.

MOST OF WEST IS CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. REALLY MASSIVE 1040 HPA HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALIES HAS KEPT COLD AIR IN AT LOW LEVELS BUT NOW
BRINGING SOME MARINE LAYER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO THIS LARGE ANTICYCLONE. SREF SHOWS SOME CHANCE POPS AS
THE ANEMIC FRONT PUSHES INTO PA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. KEPT
POPS IN NORTHERN TIER AND USED 3-HOUR SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
FUNCTION "POPS" TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION. I LOWERED THE
VALUES AS THESE ARE NOT STATISTICAL POPS AS IN MOS BUT A
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IN A SYSTEM WITH A LOW QPF WET BIAS.

HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT A TROUGH THAT HAS POSITIVE PRESSURE
ANOMALIES!

ANY RAIN WOULD BE LIGHT AND THE ANTICYCLONE BEHING THIS
SYSTEM AT 1030 HPA IS A BIT WEAKER. ITS A GOOD TIME FOR
ANTICYCLONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 180620
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND APPEARED TO
HAMPER THE FROST ADVISORY BUT WE HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING AS THIS
FEATURE MOVED WEST AND NOW HAVE REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
34-37F RANGE THOUGH BIGGER CITIES STILL NEAR 40. SO WILL KEEP
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS SOME LOCATIONS NOW BELOW THE MAGIC 36F
SHELTER HEIGHT. WINDS HAVE LUFT A BIT TOO.

MOST OF WEST IS CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. REALLY MASSIVE 1040 HPA HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALIES HAS KEPT COLD AIR IN AT LOW LEVELS BUT NOW
BRINGING SOME MARINE LAYER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO THIS LARGE ANTICYCLONE. SREF SHOWS SOME CHANCE POPS AS
THE ANEMIC FRONT PUSHES INTO PA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. KEPT
POPS IN NORTHERN TIER AND USED 3-HOUR SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
FUNCTION "POPS" TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION. I LOWERED THE
VALUES AS THESE ARE NOT STATISTICAL POPS AS IN MOS BUT A
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IN A SYSTEM WITH A LOW QPF WET BIAS.

HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT A TROUGH THAT HAS POSITIVE PRESSURE
ANOMALIES!

ANY RAIN WOULD BE LIGHT AND THE ANTICYCLONE BEHING THIS
SYSTEM AT 1030 HPA IS A BIT WEAKER. ITS A GOOD TIME FOR
ANTICYCLONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
INTO SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...AND ULTIMATELY
EDGING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

DURING THE DAY ON FRI...CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS.
VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NW HALF. VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND APPEARED TO
HAMPER THE FROST ADVISORY BUT WE HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING AS THIS
FEATURE MOVED WEST AND NOW HAVE REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
34-37F RANGE THOUGH BIGGER CITIES STILL NEAR 40. SO WILL KEEP
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS SOME LOCATIONS NOW BELOW THE MAGIC 36F
SHELTER HEIGHT. WINDS HAVE LUFT A BIT TOO.

MOST OF WEST IS CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. REALLY MASSIVE 1040 HPA HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALIES HAS KEPT COLD AIR IN AT LOW LEVELS BUT NOW
BRINGING SOME MARINE LAYER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO THIS LARGE ANTICYCLONE. SREF SHOWS SOME CHANCE POPS AS
THE ANEMIC FRONT PUSHES INTO PA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. KEPT
POPS IN NORTHERN TIER AND USED 3-HOUR SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
FUNCTION "POPS" TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION. I LOWERED THE
VALUES AS THESE ARE NOT STATISTICAL POPS AS IN MOS BUT A
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IN A SYSTEM WITH A LOW QPF WET BIAS.

HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT A TROUGH THAT HAS POSITIVE PRESSURE
ANOMALIES!

ANY RAIN WOULD BE LIGHT AND THE ANTICYCLONE BEHING THIS
SYSTEM AT 1030 HPA IS A BIT WEAKER. ITS A GOOD TIME FOR
ANTICYCLONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
IN FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELDS...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 180402
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1202 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPOSITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE JUST SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. WE WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT THIS
TENDENCY FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW TO HELP DEVELOP A SHIELD OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT IF
THE CLOUDS KEEP DEVELOPING BEFORE THE WINDS AND TEMPS DROP
OFF...FROST WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
IN FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELDS...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 180402
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1202 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPOSITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE JUST SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. WE WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT THIS
TENDENCY FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW TO HELP DEVELOP A SHIELD OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT IF
THE CLOUDS KEEP DEVELOPING BEFORE THE WINDS AND TEMPS DROP
OFF...FROST WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING
IN FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELDS...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COMPOSITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE JUST SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. WE WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT THIS
TENDENCY FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW TO HELP DEVELOP A SHIELD OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT IF
THE CLOUDS KEEP DEVELOPING BEFORE THE WINDS AND TEMPS DROP
OFF...FROST WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COMPOSITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE JUST SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. WE WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT THIS
TENDENCY FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW TO HELP DEVELOP A SHIELD OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT IF
THE CLOUDS KEEP DEVELOPING BEFORE THE WINDS AND TEMPS DROP
OFF...FROST WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 172340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER OVER SERN AREAS HAVING
DISSIPATED. THE EVENING WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT RATHER BREEZY WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-20MPH SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER SERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AREAS AS
WE COLL OVERNIGHT IN THE FACE OF A CONTINUED MOISTENING SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD MESS UP THE FROST ADVISORY IF THE CLOUDS
PILE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE TEMPS MANAGE TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE DAYBREAK
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 172340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER OVER SERN AREAS HAVING
DISSIPATED. THE EVENING WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT RATHER BREEZY WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-20MPH SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER SERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AREAS AS
WE COLL OVERNIGHT IN THE FACE OF A CONTINUED MOISTENING SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD MESS UP THE FROST ADVISORY IF THE CLOUDS
PILE INTO THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE TEMPS MANAGE TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE DAYBREAK
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 172254
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...KEEPING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRUSH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND SUPPLY ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF PLEASANT MID SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NWRN PENN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE 8-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THIS
SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
ALONG...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS CONTINUING
TOO ADVECT NW AND ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE EXTENT OF
THESE SHALLOW...SCT-BKN STRATO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND COVER MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF I-81 BY DUSK.

TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.


AS THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATO CU DECK ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND ADJACENT SERN AND ECENT PA SOLIDIFY INTO A MORE
UNIFORM BKN- OVC CLOUD LAYER AND ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AS THE MEAN SFC-850 MB FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS /AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS /IN THE 20S/ WILL HELP TO CURB THE TEMP DROP
TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT
SE WINDS HAS DIRECTED US TOWARD TRANSITIONING FROM A FREEZE WATCH
TO A FROST ADVISORY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 32-35 RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE
DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S /ESP IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS/. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU





000
FXUS61 KCTP 172254
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...KEEPING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRUSH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND SUPPLY ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF PLEASANT MID SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NWRN PENN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE 8-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THIS
SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
ALONG...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS CONTINUING
TOO ADVECT NW AND ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE EXTENT OF
THESE SHALLOW...SCT-BKN STRATO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND COVER MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF I-81 BY DUSK.

TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.


AS THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATO CU DECK ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND ADJACENT SERN AND ECENT PA SOLIDIFY INTO A MORE
UNIFORM BKN- OVC CLOUD LAYER AND ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AS THE MEAN SFC-850 MB FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS /AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS /IN THE 20S/ WILL HELP TO CURB THE TEMP DROP
TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT
SE WINDS HAS DIRECTED US TOWARD TRANSITIONING FROM A FREEZE WATCH
TO A FROST ADVISORY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 32-35 RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE
DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S /ESP IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS/. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 171939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...KEEPING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRUSH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND SUPPLY ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF PLEASANT MID SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NWRN PENN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE 8-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THIS
SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
ALONG...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS CONTINUING
TOO ADVECT NW AND ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE EXTENT OF
THESE SHALLOW...SCT-BKN STRATO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND COVER MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF I-81 BY DUSK.

TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.


AS THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATO CU DECK ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND ADJACENT SERN AND ECENT PA SOLIDIFY INTO A MORE
UNIFORM BKN- OVC CLOUD LAYER AND ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AS THE MEAN SFC-850 MB FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS /AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS /IN THE 20S/ WILL HELP TO CURB THE TEMP DROP
TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT
SE WINDS HAS DIRECTED US TOWARD TRANSITIONING FROM A FREEZE WATCH
TO A FROST ADVISORY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 32-35 RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE
DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S /ESP IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS/. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE /DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELD/...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 171825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...KEEPING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRUSH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND SUPPLY ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF PLEASANT MID SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NWRN PENN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE 8-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THIS
SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
ALONG...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS CONTINUING
TOO ADVECT NW AND ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE EXTENT OF
THESE SHALLOW...SCT-BKN STRATO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND COVER MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF I-81 BY DUSK.

TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.


AS THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATO CU DECK ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND ADJACENT SERN AND ECENT PA SOLIDIFY INTO A MORE
UNIFORM BKN- OVC CLOUD LAYER AND ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AS THE MEAN SFC-850 MB FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS /AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS /IN THE 20S/ WILL HELP TO CURB THE TEMP DROP
TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT
SE WINDS HAS DIRECTED US TOWARD TRANSITIONING FROM A FREEZE WATCH
TO A FROST ADVISORY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 32-35 RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE
DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S /ESP IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS/. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE /DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELD/...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 171825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...KEEPING FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRUSH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND SUPPLY ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF PLEASANT MID SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NWRN PENN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE 8-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THIS
SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
ALONG...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS CONTINUING
TOO ADVECT NW AND ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE EXTENT OF
THESE SHALLOW...SCT-BKN STRATO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND COVER MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND TO THE SE OF I-81 BY DUSK.

TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.


AS THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES THIS
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATO CU DECK ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AND ADJACENT SERN AND ECENT PA SOLIDIFY INTO A MORE
UNIFORM BKN- OVC CLOUD LAYER AND ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AS THE MEAN SFC-850 MB FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR. THE CLOUDS /AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS /IN THE 20S/ WILL HELP TO CURB THE TEMP DROP
TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT
SE WINDS HAS DIRECTED US TOWARD TRANSITIONING FROM A FREEZE WATCH
TO A FROST ADVISORY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 32-35 RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS COULD SEE
DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S /ESP IF A PERIOD OF CLEARING
OCCURS/. TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW ZONES WILL BE JUST A TAD
LOWER THAN THOSE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES COVERED BY THE FROST
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE /DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELD/...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 171606
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1206 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
FRESHENED INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE ABOUT 7-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO
THIS SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS BEGINNING TO SNEAK
INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY..AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY
NWWD...REACHING THE THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM KHAR TO SCHUYLKILL CTY
LATER TODAY AS SOME SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU.

TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER
THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS
AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE
MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE
GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY
MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING.

THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM
STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE /DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELD/...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THEWIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW ON FRI WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
/MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&


.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 171606
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1206 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
FRESHENED INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /ALBEIT FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION/ MOTHER NATURE IS LESS DECEIVING WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WHICH ARE ABOUT 7-10F WARMER IN ALL LOCATIONS COMPARED TO
THIS SAME TIME WEDNESDAY.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE /THE BULK OF IT WHICH IS STILL LURKING
OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA COAST/ IS BEGINNING TO SNEAK
INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY..AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY
NWWD...REACHING THE THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM KHAR TO SCHUYLKILL CTY
LATER TODAY AS SOME SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU.

TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER
THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS
AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE
MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE
GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY
MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING.

THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM
STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE /DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AIRFIELD/...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THEWIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW ON FRI WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
/MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&


.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT





000
FXUS61 KCTP 171255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS. 12Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT MOST PRIMARY
OBSERVATION SITES...WITH POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER
RURAL VALLEYS.

SOME LLVL MARINE MOISTURE IS LURKING ALONG AND EAST OF THE NJ AND
DELMARVA COAST...AND AS MEAN SFC-850 MB STAY FROM THE SE...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND
SCHUYLKILL CTY LATER TODAY AS SOME SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU.

MAXES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH BLENDS NICELY TO
THE L-M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER
THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS
AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE
MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE
GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY
MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING.

THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM
STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
STRATOCU POSS SLIDING IN FROM THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE FRI.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING... BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR
STRATOCU MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW ON FRI WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
/MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR





000
FXUS61 KCTP 171152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...SO TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD
AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL AOB FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT DURING THE DAY...BUT SOME MARINE MOISTURE
COULD STILL START TO SNEAK IN AS THE FLOW AROUND THE BIG NEW
ENGLAND HIGH FETCHES THINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SKY
COVER SCT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A TOTALLY
SUNNY DAY IS LOW WITH THE POSS OF SOME CU. THUS...MO SUNNY SHOULD
WORK OUT. MAXES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH BLENDS
NICELY TO THE L-M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE COULD BECOME THICKER AND BUILD A CEILING/BROKEN SKY OVER
THE SE EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE FLOW FROM THE SE BACKS AND SLACKENS
AS THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...THE
MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OUT OF THE SE AND POOL UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREAS IN THE
GROWING SEASON. MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN PLACES NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE SE AGAIN. CLOUDS COULD BLOW THIS UP AND KEEP IT SLIGHTLY
MILDER. HOWEVER...MESO PATTERN IS CERTAINLY ONE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO BE CUT OFF AND SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TONIGHT...WILL POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE FREEZING.

THE RIDGE THEN STAYS IN PLACE AND HELPS TO PUSH A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM
STORM WILL ALSO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES EAST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MIGHTY MISS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVE...WITH MVFR STRATOCU
POSS SLIDING IN FROM THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE FRI.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS BY MID
MORNING... BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR
STRATOCU MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE SE TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW ON FRI WITH LOW PROB OF
RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS SE PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
/MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING RECORD MINS IN IPT AND MDT...BUT MAY
STOP SHORT GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THE LITTLE BREATH OF WIND
REMAINING. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR APRIL 17TH FROM
AROUND THE AREA.

AOO... 23/1980
BFD... 16/1963
JST... 21/1966
IPT... 25/1904
MDT... 29/1980 AND 1904

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities